The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[Kuumo]

Man, people really slept on Georgia.

I wish that I’d slept on Al Gross instead.

[VAR]

Man, people really slept on Georgia.

I'm proud to say I didn't.

I still believe that GA is going to vote the left of NC, so I voted Tillis. Also, I don’t buy that the runoff is an uphill battle for Ossoff.

I still had Loeffler/Perdue winning by half a point because I didn't think black turnout would be so high, but I did anticipate Georgia's leftward shift and that there wouldn't be much ticket-splitting. So I will now accept my accolades.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

At 30 years old he'd been briefly an overhyped "rising star", and now if mentioned at all he's mostly mentioned in "lol, Ossoffed" context.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The more you mock me, the more satisfying it will be when Trump wins because Biden put all his eggs in the those three states and couldn't pull off the hat trick. What's very interesting though, is how after all the response, not one of you has been able to come up with a counter argument to my points.

[brucejoel99]

I know that this is supposed to be a compilation thread for posts that were NOT all that prescient in hindsight, but I just couldn't find a better thread to post this in (so if somebody could please point me to a better thread for such a legitimately prescient post as the following, that'd be much-appreciated!):

I know it sounds ridiculous but politics is big for me. I truly wanted to see some decent conservative policy implementation and now it looks like nothing will get done before the dems take the house, and that makes trump a lameduck for 2 years until he loses reelection.

[brucejoel99]

Some goodies about the President that I just stumbled upon:

When he was considering getting in, I said that he probably wasn't the best choice since he had little luck running for President before. Looks like I was right.

This whole debacle is so hilarious because Biden probably would've been a serious contender in Iowa/New Hampshire/Nevada (etc.) if he made even 0.001% of the effort a viable presidential candidate is supposed to make on the campaign trail. Imagine if he appeared in public more than once a month or didn't call voters ugly/tell them to vote for his opponents? Even for someone as totally decrepit as Biden the sheer laziness he's displayed on this campaign is surreal.

Honestly, Biden's campaign, I think, is probably best comparable to Rudy Giuliani in 2008. Led national polls the whole way, but as more of a placeholder/name recognition thing, rather than actual enthusiasm. Collapsed as soon as actual voting happened because he was always a paper tiger, with placeholder national poll answers masking a terrible campaign and a mediocre candidate (there's a reason he got nowhere in 1988 and 2008.)

 Amusingly, Biden basically ran on "A noun, a verb and Barack Obama", much like Giuliani ran on "A noun, a verb and 9/11."

With 36% in and Biden trailing in fifth place with 9%, I can say with certainty his campaign is effectively over. Amazing that he was leading in the national polls until two weeks ago.

Et tu, GMac? (feat. from heatcharger what would perhaps turn out to be the most prescient NH primary night analysis):

Yep.  Biden is over.  Totally incompetent execution.  These are embarrassing results for a campaign that's supposed to be run by some of the best in the biz, and I would never trust a campaign that executes like this to beat Trump.

It's a shame, Biden is a really great guy and would have been a good president.  He has by far the most complete resume and best track record of success in the race, represents a diverse and winning coalition, and holds positions that Democrats can run on and win.  He's been treated like absolute dogsh*t by everyone this campaign, especially the media, and persevered for a year only to implode because the folks running his campaign couldn't drive turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar are all good choices for the nominee, in that order IMO.  I'm on board Bloomberg 2020 at this point.

I really don't think you've thought this through. Buttigieg just doesn't have it with black voters and lacks the charisma needed to connect. I like Klobuchar's chances of finding a winning coalition better, but she's got a long way to go. But if you think Biden's campaign is proving to be a paper tiger, Bloomberg is a bigger one who just happens to have an unseemly sum of money to waste. He hasn't been in a single debate and is still negative nationally before the opposition onslaught.

I've soured on Bloomberg hard in the past week -- his strategy is moronic and threatening to detonate the party. Let's be real, there's no real path for him to get a majority of delegates. The scenario where he gets 30-35% of delegates and somehow overcomes extreme obstacles to get to 50% at a contested convention is a nightmare and you know it.

His entry into the race and his spending have made it astronomically more likely that there's a contested convention by tanking Biden's prospects, and he's an extremely flawed general election candidate if he makes it there. I'm admittedly bitter and more annoyed by the former, as I quite like Joe Biden and a hell of a lot more than anyone else in the race. But I don't think the moderates have the stomach for what's gonna happen next if they abandon him.

It's looking dire for the Democratic Party. Even if you're a Bernie Sanders fan you'd have to admit his time as frontrunner hasn't been so glorious.

It's problems all around.  But Biden has now dramatically underperformed in both contests and his campaign hasn't shown any capability to recover.  If that's the kind of campaign he's running, he won't beat Trump, and I care about that more than anything else.

Sanders will not only lose to Trump, but bring the party down with him.  Warren's campaign is dead in the water.  That leaves us with Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg.  Of the three, I think Bloomberg is clearly the most capable when it comes to taking on Trump, and he already has quadruple the black support of Buttigieg and Klobuchar combined.  I'll have to see him on the debate stage before I'm certain, but Bloomberg feels like the best bet.  None of them are good bets though.  I really wanted those "Biden +6 in Ohio, -2 in Texas" poll results to play out.  But if he continues dramatically underperforming in these primary states, I'm not willing to sign onto that risk in the general election.

Featuring another voice of sanity, this time tinged in (relative) optimism:

No nominee since the McGovern-Fraser Commission reforms of 1972 has ever done as poorly as placing 4th and 5th in both of the first two states respectively. Biden needs a miracle.

Twinned with a voice of sanity tinged in (relative) pessimism:

Not gonna say it's over until NV and SC vote, but Biden's campaign is pretty much dead now. Go Pete, I guess?

Feat. John Dule:

[Snipped Above]

This is so demonstrably untrue on every level; Biden has no track record of electoral success and he clearly does not represent any kind of coalition, let alone a "winning" one. The media has treated him with kid's gloves this entire cycle, as have his fellow candidates (with the notable exception of Harris). The fault here is not with the campaign. It is with the candidate. And the fact that you don't understand that even now does not bode well for your prognostications of "electability" in the future. Biden was an embarrassment from the get-go.

And last but not least:

I guess its time for me to stop tracking Biden vs Trump polls state by state as it seems Biden is finished, it looks like it will be a Trump vs Bernie contest. Trump has knocked out the democratic candidate that has polled the best against him on average it seems, the attacks over Ukraine surely helped weaken Biden.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Let's hope it does. I want the Republican Party to die a miserable death like it deserved after 2008.

Your establishment hack candidates like Ossoff will still lose. Sad!

[brucejoel99]

What a mess. Anyway, people shouldn’t be writing Biden’s obituary yet. Yes, it looks like he did terribly, but last I checked, SC is still coming up, and Buttigieg is at 0% among black voters (and Sanders isn’t exactly doing great, either.) Assuming what we know is right, this hurts Biden (less than it would have if the results had come in properly) but unless another candidate scoops up a lot of his support, he’s nowhere near out of the race.

Yeah, Biden underperforming is definitely a far less talked about news story right now than it otherwise would've been, & that's good for him considering he doesn't really need Iowa at all to win the primary.

He's still done, though. He surely won't win New Hampshire or Nevada, either.

You dont come back from a 4th or 5th place finish in Iowa if you’re a Democrat. He’s done.

[Ancestral Republican]

What a mess. Anyway, people shouldn’t be writing Biden’s obituary yet. Yes, it looks like he did terribly, but last I checked, SC is still coming up, and Buttigieg is at 0% among black voters (and Sanders isn’t exactly doing great, either.) Assuming what we know is right, this hurts Biden (less than it would have if the results had come in properly) but unless another candidate scoops up a lot of his support, he’s nowhere near out of the race.

Yeah, Biden underperforming is definitely a far less talked about news story right now than it otherwise would've been, & that's good for him considering he doesn't really need Iowa at all to win the primary.

He's still done, though. He surely won't win New Hampshire or Nevada, either.

You dont come back from a 4th or 5th place finish in Iowa if you’re a Democrat. He’s done.

Yes, we all know Biden was rescued by the key dropouts, Warren, and the bumper sticker voters of SC. The fact remains his campaign was anemic.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

She's probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, maybe a distant 3rd at best.

[brucejoel99]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

She's probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, maybe a distant 3rd at best.

Oof, rip

[AGA]

And it's entirely possible, if not likely, they will stay on for another term in two years. Anyway, these two are the very best gubernatorial duo (I know, I know, unpopular opinion). Nevertheless, congrats King Andy and Queen Kathy!

[Ancestral Republican]

Trump will win in a landslide because Biden has dementia.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Unless and big unless here, Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination. Bernie Sanders might be the only person who can beat Donald Trump. But I don't know if he actually ends up running. He would be by far the oldest president ever.

Reason being as to why I think this is, Democrats have nobody exciting or new to run, just the same old ideas by the same politicians. Same thing happened with the Republicans in 2012, they didn't have anybody good to run. Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, same old crap. These millennials are getting older (Gen Z will start to vote in 2020) and the more time goes on the more Bernie-like the base of the party is going to become. Even Warren I don't think can beat Trump.

The economy will ultimately be the reason he gets re-elected. Despite all the negative media coverage of Tweets and stupid stuff he says on a weekly basis, there will be no economic reason the people who voted for him in 2016 will vote for a Democrat in 2020. And he may get some establishment Republican voters back. In addition, we're in an era where a 40%-ish approval rating is good enough if the alternative is worse. Politics is now a lesser of two evils game, Trump may have a below average approval and still win. Polling will be misleading once again and underestimate Trump, and people will have not learned their lesson from 2016. White working class voters will stand behind him once again, and he'll probably win the same states give or take one or two. The only thing that may hinder him in the electoral college is the increasing share of Latino vote that will make Arizona close and Florida even closer.

Dig this up two and a half years from now, and either laugh at me or applaud me, but I won't care either way, it's very unlikely I'll still remember this place by that time. I'm ultimately just posting this to have some courage in my gut, but I genuinely do predict this.

[brucejoel99]

Harris will not be VP. If picked, she would ensure that the entire ticket gets dragged down to defeat. It would be a disaster.

[brucejoel99]

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51057171647_40b0261f8d_c.jpg

Here it is in quote form for a direct link to the thread:

Electoral College wise....it was an absolute LANDSLIDE for Trump. in 2020 I wouldn't be shocked if one of NV, CO or NH turns red as well.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

To be fair, it did take a while to declare a winner for Nevada. Biden still won it, but he did it by a surprisingly weak number. Don't take this as gospel, but Nevada has a seriously good chance of flipping in 2024. After all, this person wasn't making a prediction, he was just saying that it had a very good chance of happening.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1329827474931216384

Okay, Deval Patrick yesterday & now Merrick Garland of all people today? Yeah, they're definitely at the "Doug Jones is probably the pick but let's just throw some random names out there for the hell of it to see how people react" stage & nobody can convince me otherwise.

Don't get me wrong, if they actually take Garland off the bench to be AG, I'll eat my hat. But this post just isn't going to a white guy not named Doug Jones.

[AtorBoltox]

More projection by the Democrats.

When Trump wins the states narrowly but loses the popular vote by millions, they will earnestly call for electors to defect and this thread will look very ironic in retrospect.

How is it "projection" when the Trump campaign literally admitted to considering this? Also, the scenario you are laying out already happened in 2016. And in reality no Democratic Congressmen (Or Presidential Candidates) tried to stop the electors from being appointed. None of what you're saying makes sense.

Whatever they did was massively blown out of proportion by the liberal press. The only side that has called for manipulating electors is the Democratic side, which it did when this happened in 2016. Remember the whole "Hamilton Electors" movement? It was supported by Democratic Presidential Candidates like Larry Lessig. They tried to stop faithful electors from being appointed in favor of free-floating ones -- and succeeded in several cases.

I expect it to be far worse this time. And that's why I can't really take this "Trump can't accept defeat" stuff seriously. Even if he loses, he will be a guy who entered politics on a whim at age 69 and was successful beyond his wildest dreams. He's already made his mark. If the Democrats lose on the other hand, they will have lost despite winning the popular vote twice in a row, lost to the guy they spent four years frothing at the mouth against, lose 2-3 more Supreme Court seats, and they have convinced themselves it's the end of democracy. To top it all off, in the past several months they have worked themselves up into convincing themselves that they are going to win the election based on polling.

So who do you really think will swallow defeat more easily? I don't think it's the Democrats.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Virginia will vote for a liberal Democrat for president when hell freezes over.

In 2096 when a Democrat finally wins VA, the Democrats here will all say "I told you it was trending Democrat!".

[Stuart98]

The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[Continential]

I have a feeling in a few years he's going to look back at some of the things he's done here and be em brassed.  Or at least one would hope.  I hope he takes this thread as a lesson learned and not just a big pile on.

[ꙮ]

Basically everything in the first 200 pages of the Biden campaign thread. It seemed like everyone on the site had decided that Biden was going to go down in flames before 2020 or lose the general if he won the primary. I forgot how silly it got at times.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=313625.0

[Ancestral Republican]

Basically everything in the first 200 pages of the Biden campaign thread. It seemed like everyone on the site had decided that Biden was going to go down in flames before 2020 or lose the general if he won the primary. I forgot how silly it got at times.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=313625.0

If he wasn't Obama's Magic Grandpa he would have lost the former, and if Covid hadn't happened he most likely would have lost the latter.

[brucejoel99]

Basically everything in the first 200 pages of the Biden campaign thread. It seemed like everyone on the site had decided that Biden was going to go down in flames before 2020 or lose the general if he won the primary. I forgot how silly it got at times.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=313625.0

If he wasn't Obama's Magic Grandpa he would have lost the former, and if Covid hadn't happened he most likely would have lost the latter.

The usage of if being operative there, of course. This is the thread for "exquisitely aged content," after all.