The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[sting in the rafters]

T-Mac +3.3

The demographic most correlated with voter intent other than Party ID is not educational attainment, race, income, nor region; it is ideology. All of polls that have recently come out (FOX, Roanoke, Suffolk, etc.)  are modeling for a more conservative electorate than 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, or 2020. In addition, they are modeling for election day turnout to be 1.2 million (or half the overall vote) and Youngkin to win the E-day vote 2/1. For reference, election day turnout last year in VA was 1.8 million, so they're expecting him to get 2/3rds of Trump's election day turnout and the same proportional margins as Trump did. There is a clear expectation of supercharged GOP turnout and depressed turnout among black voters+independent young voters.

This would fit with the enthusiasm gap we've seen regarding conservatives being fired up, but the raw math just isn't there given that the early vote is already over a million. Failure to modulate the ideological composition and inexperience with weighting election day turnout is exactly why polls overestimated Ds last year in the generals yet were more or less accurate for GA-Senate run-offs.

Now if rural turnout is as high as anticipated, numbers in the Tidewater slack, and Youngkin's giving a victory speech sometime this week? Well then I got a whole lot of egg on my face and Ds need to throw as many bodies as they can at WI/MI/PA because the conservative base there will show up with intensity next fall.

While it is plausible that there is higher conservative turnout amongst LV, the ideological composition would be not only be to the right of the 2013 race, but feature the same conservative% as 2009. Rs do have an enthusiasm advantage, however not by much.

At the risk of hackery the RV screens in both polls show the generally accepted ~25/40/35 split seems more accurate. That said, the state of the campaign indicates a path to victory for Youngkin as TMac cannot take turnout in NoVA and the black communities of the Tidewater regions for granted. Sleepwalking through the home stretch is not an option.

People keep saying this but there is no evidence of this?

No evidence of the Tmac campaign sleepwalking? Agreed, he's been utilizing COVID and abortion as 2 key issues to hammer Youngkin over the head with. My point is more a general point of not taking the race for granted solely because of favorable trends.

He isn’t so it’s pretty moot. He’s running a good campaign by your admission.

Never really said he isn't, look man some of us are gonna have the '16 general in the back of our minds forever (yes, there are countless differences in the dynamics which need not be enumerated but the principle is the same) and be scared s---less at any sign of low base turnout. WaPo showing consistently higher voter intent among Rs and conservatives underscores the need to close it out in the final 6 weeks.

To reiterate, the fact that even an electorate as right as 2013 would give Tmac the W indicates this is a Likely D race. But there's a reason Likely D races are Likely and not Safe.

>Looks at Surry County, a rural racially polarized county in the Tidewater at Youngkin+0.7 with 100% reporting as opposed to Northam+13.1
>Repeatedly bangs head into wall

Suppose Russia conducts a full-fledged invasion. What's their plan a month from now when tens of thousands are dead, there's no end in sight to a Ukrainian insurgency, inflation increases as it always does with war, and there's thousands of people protesting outside the Kremlin? Urban warfare means high Russian casualties. Ukraine doesn't need to "win", they just need to up the body count to where enough Russian moms/wives get sick of seeing their boys come home in caskets.

There isn't the same fervor when they took Crimea in 2014. Young people are already lukewarm on the administration, fighting for the fantasies of septuagenarian elites looking to relive the USSR glory days they weren't alive for can't help much on that front. The Kremlin can't disappear them all. Mark my words, a botched invasion is one of the very few things which can jeopardize Putin's grip on power.

Nearly 4 weeks in and how the f--- did a glorified excel monkey stoner see problems a former KGB spy in command of seasoned military staff and elite intelligence agency didn't?

Look, Imma be wrong A LOT, but most of the time I at least have an idea of HOW I'll be wrong. To paraphrase Chappelle "I'm like Evel Kenevil, I get paid by the attempt!"

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

They will all 3 be found not guilty on every single count.

After the Rittenhouse verdict it's now open season on people of color anyone who demands they be treated fairly.

I wouldn't doubt they free Derek Chauvin on grounds of self defense at this point.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I have a very sick feeling in my stomach that they’re going to get off. I really hope I’m wrong.

[Tekken_Guy]

Frankly I'd imagine Max Rose is regretting not pulling a Van Drew himself

Why?  He’ll have a safe house seat in two years.

[wesmoorenerd]

THG should be this site’s authoritative source on sunbelt primaries from now on and not Traflagar or most other polling agencies

You crazy SOB, it happened! Cheers!

Well done.

I guess the Arizona GOP hasn't completely surrendered to Id just yet.

[Xing]

It’s very based that the left is about to be up in arms that Kansas is engaging in democracy.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh god

I mean it wasn't hard to predict that a comedian with no political experience would be an incompetent moron. But....yikes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is one of the sillier posts I’ve seen on here.

Loomer will be lucky to crack 15% in a primary.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is one of the sillier posts I’ve seen on here.

Loomer will be lucky to crack 15% in a primary.

Are THG and I the only Reaganites left lol

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It will never end.

[Schiff for Senate]

This is one of the sillier posts I’ve seen on here.

Loomer will be lucky to crack 15% in a primary.

Are THG and I the only Reaganites left lol

His own political views aside, his prediction turned out to be a total and utter joke. It has nothing to do with supporting or opposing Loomer or Webster. Plenty of people who preferred Webster to Loomer (the vast majority of the forum preferred the former, to be sure) predicted that Loomer could come fairly close to toppling Webster, or even beat him - and their predictions turned out to be way closer to reality than THG’s way-off-the-mark (though, in predictable THG fashion, still smugly overconfident) prediction/wishcast.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Freedom ad. 

It sounds like an ad a Republican would run.

What wrong with a patriotically themed ad? If anything, I’m happy Tulsi is trying to reclaim Patriotism and love of country from the Republicans.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There's really nothing preventing state legislatures from assigning electors now, just that all 50 states have laws requiring them to go to the winner of the popular vote in that state and it's such a radical position to repeal it that even the Republican Legislatures and Governors aren't willing to. Someone like Mastriano would be willing to buy still unclear if he could get such a bill passed.

Repealing it after the election would probably be struck down by even the most conservative court as an ex post facto law and we saw how interested courts were in Trump's post-election attempts. Still any case that would potentially push gerrymandering even further is quite worrisome.

Why couldn't they just pass a law today saying "the state's presidential electors will be determined via popular vote; however, a majority of the legislature, within three weeks of the election, may override this and determine the presidential electors" if they passed it before the election?

There's nothing in the Constitution that says they couldn't do that.

They could yes, I'm talking more about when crackpots like Mastriano wanted to pass something like that after the 2020 election and went nowhere.

As noted Arizona had such a bill but the House Speaker opposed it and killed it before a vote with some parliamentary roadblocks. But he's term limited and won't be around next term.

You mean that crackpot masteriano who has nearly even odds of becoming the next governor of pennsylvania? I think you're proving the point here.

[Badger]

There's really nothing preventing state legislatures from assigning electors now, just that all 50 states have laws requiring them to go to the winner of the popular vote in that state and it's such a radical position to repeal it that even the Republican Legislatures and Governors aren't willing to. Someone like Mastriano would be willing to buy still unclear if he could get such a bill passed.

Repealing it after the election would probably be struck down by even the most conservative court as an ex post facto law and we saw how interested courts were in Trump's post-election attempts. Still any case that would potentially push gerrymandering even further is quite worrisome.

Why couldn't they just pass a law today saying "the state's presidential electors will be determined via popular vote; however, a majority of the legislature, within three weeks of the election, may override this and determine the presidential electors" if they passed it before the election?

There's nothing in the Constitution that says they couldn't do that.

They could yes, I'm talking more about when crackpots like Mastriano wanted to pass something like that after the 2020 election and went nowhere.

As noted Arizona had such a bill but the House Speaker opposed it and killed it before a vote with some parliamentary roadblocks. But he's term limited and won't be around next term.

You mean that crackpot masteriano who has nearly even odds of becoming the next governor of pennsylvania? I think you're proving the point here.

IIRC he has dropped in the polls tangibly sin e then.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He's still on the ballot in MN which is gonna be decided by less than 3,000 votes and is probably the tipping point state. Write Ye off if you want to. He is smarter than all of you, better than all of you, and he has a plan for the future.

[TheReckoning]

Hilarious person. I look forward to Fetterman emasculating him on the debate stage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hilarious person. I look forward to Fetterman emasculating him on the debate stage.

Lol the man had a stroke he didn't commit a gaffe and if you look back at the gaffe that Gore made with sighs and Bush W performance on Katrina, the swing female voters that voted for Bush W voted for Obama in 2008 because they blamed Bush W for recession

Fetterman still leads by 5 pts and the only poll Oz lead in was a Wick POLL

We're gonna win WI, PA and GA fir 52 Senators another female comes out against Walker the Rs have 44 seats UT, OH, NC and FL are vulnerable and Rubio is underpolled DeSantis

The red wave is obviously in the H but the EC map will follow Senate race we only need 279 votes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If I were to quote all the Rs misstatements lol NV is the most obvious one how many blue avatars think LAXALT is invincible once the Early voting came in 2018 on Eday he lost to Sisolak, the same is happening as we speak Early voting is going 2/1 against Laxalt

Let's not forget meme 2019 KY Lean R and they are doing it the same on Ryan v Vance the only victory on Eday the Rs might get is Abbott and DeSantis winning and that is questionable because Abbott lead is down to 4 in Telemundo poll and let's not forget MT Treasure or French republican whom might be Caltrina since they both disliked Joe Kennedy but like Gavin Newsom and DeSantis saying Ossoff was Doomed to Perdue, because the Sonny Perdue name


University of NV has CCM up 13 just like University of FL has DeSantis up 14

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Re: Elon Musk

FF. Pushes technology to new heights and supports universal basic income.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Re: Elon Musk

FF. Pushes technology to new heights and supports universal basic income.

Ew. Why was I so dumb?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just got home but surprised by both McCormick and Barnette, but this goes to show the value of money in the bank on election day. McCormick had a professional operation in place and Barnette didn't. It's not everything, but it helps in a close race.

Anyway, both races remain Lean R for me.

RGA won't even commit to spending for Mastriano or against Shapiro, making the Gubernatorial election Lean D for now. And that frees up more PADP resources in the form of people power for Fetterman, so the Senate election between Fetterman and Oz should remain a tossup.

I'm going to laugh so hard when this take (which, the majority of people here agree with) inevitably does not age well. Y'all will never learn.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I know it sounds like the worst case scenario but I truly believe the bottom has fallen out for dems. I will be happy to answer questions about it

Lol @ me

[soundchaser]

This is one of those races where people will look back and ask themselves why they ignored all the warning signs that the race would flip and that it wouldn’t be particularly close (incumbent's vote share in polling, state's tendency to reflect the national popular vote, demographics that were going to make the state the epicenter of a GOP wave under current party coalitions/in a midterm in which the trends observable in the last presidential election only tend to accelerate, generic Republican vs. generic Democrat contest, repeated signs and reports that pollsters were struggling to pick up the pace of the shift toward Republicans among non-white/non-Anglo working-class voters).

However, it made Ralston debase himself, so it was still worth it.

[Left Wing]

What you saw there was a bitter man deciding to end his career and destroy his reputation because he could no longer contain his contempt for the other side. I actually can’t believe he did this and we were all there to witness it — probably the single most memorable moment of this campaign cycle. Ralston's self-immolation truly was a sight to behold.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

PA, bite me.

They're both pretty similar, but Josh Shapiro is the single most overrated candidate this cycle thus far. He's a very partisan Dem who has very little demonstrated crossover appeal, overperforming Biden by 3 against a poorly known opponent. In addition, Tom Wolf is even more unpopular than Whitmer is right now, and he's served alongside him and has to defend his record. It's just not realistic to think he's going to do much better than Whitmer.