Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[W]

He's too scared for a contest weeks away to stay in NH? He capitulated it to Bernie on live TV a few days ago? Biden is a coward.

[Volrath50]

This whole debacle is so hilarious because Biden probably would've been a serious contender in Iowa/New Hampshire/Nevada (etc.) if he made even 0.001% of the effort a viable presidential candidate is supposed to make on the campaign trail. Imagine if he appeared in public more than once a month or didn't call voters ugly/tell them to vote for his opponents? Even for someone as totally decrepit as Biden the sheer laziness he's displayed on this campaign is surreal.

Honestly, Biden's campaign, I think, is probably best comparable to Rudy Giuliani in 2008. Led national polls the whole way, but as more of a placeholder/name recognition thing, rather than actual enthusiasm. Collapsed as soon as actual voting happened because he was always a paper tiger, with placeholder national poll answers masking a terrible campaign and a mediocre candidate (there's a reason he got nowhere in 1988 and 2008.)

 Amusingly, Biden basically ran on "A noun, a verb and Barack Obama", much like Giuliani ran on "A noun, a verb and 9/11."

[Lumine]

"When Big Ed arrived in Florida for The Blitz, he looked and acted like a man who’d been cracked. Watching him in action, I remembered the nervous sense of impending doom in the face of Floyd Patterson when he weighed in for his championship re-match with Sonny Liston in Las Vegas. Patterson was so obviously crippled, in his head, that I couldn’t raise a bet on him—at any odds—among the hundred or so veteran sportswriters in the ringside seats on fight night. (...) Muskie went the same way to Florida—just as Mankiewicz had predicted forty-eight hours earlier in the living room of his suburban Washington home. “Muskie is already finished,” he said then. “He had no base. Nobody’s really for Muskie. They’re only for the Front-Runner, the man who says he’s the only one who can beat Nixon—but not even Muskie himself believes that anymore; he couldn’t even win a majority of the Democratic vote in New Hampshire, on his own turf."

I've been re-reading Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72 and it's been rather fun to see how some descriptions seem to - ironically or directly - resemble moments or candidates we've seen thus far. There's a lot of fun examples, but I was particularly reminded of Biden here.

[Dorko Julio]

https://twitter.com/byyourlogic/status/1227288313058545666?s=21

Maybe he thinks by running ahead of everyone his poll numbers will catch up.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This whole debacle is so hilarious because Biden probably would've been a serious contender in Iowa/New Hampshire/Nevada (etc.) if he made even 0.001% of the effort a viable presidential candidate is supposed to make on the campaign trail. Imagine if he appeared in public more than once a month or didn't call voters ugly/tell them to vote for his opponents? Even for someone as totally decrepit as Biden the sheer laziness he's displayed on this campaign is surreal.

Honestly, Biden's campaign, I think, is probably best comparable to Rudy Giuliani in 2008. Led national polls the whole way, but as more of a placeholder/name recognition thing, rather than actual enthusiasm. Collapsed as soon as actual voting happened because he was always a paper tiger, with placeholder national poll answers masking a terrible campaign and a mediocre candidate (there's a reason he got nowhere in 1988 and 2008.)

 Amusingly, Biden basically ran on "A noun, a verb and Barack Obama", much like Giuliani ran on "A noun, a verb and 9/11."

Yeah, and I won't be shocked if Biden's firewall here collapses before the vote too. IIRC, Giuliani's Florida lead began eroding after his 4th place finish in New Hampshire.

[Adam Griffin]

This whole debacle is so hilarious because Biden probably would've been a serious contender in Iowa/New Hampshire/Nevada (etc.) if he made even 0.001% of the effort a viable presidential candidate is supposed to make on the campaign trail. Imagine if he appeared in public more than once a month or didn't call voters ugly/tell them to vote for his opponents? Even for someone as totally decrepit as Biden the sheer laziness he's displayed on this campaign is surreal.

HEY FAT

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Seeing Amy Klobuchar rise in the polls, Harria dropped out too soon. She really wanted that Veep spot bad and exchange it for dropping out. Also, too bad the impeachment trial lasted only 2 weeks, Harris and Booker thought that will enable Bidrn to have an advantage

[Progressive Pessimist]

One group of people that are probably really angry now are all the candidates that got no traction because Biden was there, people like Cory Booker, its kind of funny how Biden arguably blocked stronger candidates from gaining any ground only to basically collapse at the end himself.

Honestly, Democratic primary voters only have themselves to blame for being so taken for so long by name recognition above almost everything else.

[Rookie Yinzer]

One group of people that are probably really angry now are all the candidates that got no traction because Biden was there, people like Cory Booker, its kind of funny how Biden arguably blocked stronger candidates from gaining any ground only to basically collapse at the end himself.

Kamala Harris should still be in this race. It's disgusting.

[CookieDamage]

One group of people that are probably really angry now are all the candidates that got no traction because Biden was there, people like Cory Booker, its kind of funny how Biden arguably blocked stronger candidates from gaining any ground only to basically collapse at the end himself.

Kamala Harris should still be in this race. It's disgusting.

I think she was hobbled by a loss of steam and a crummy campaign but yes she should absolutely still be in.

[DabbingSanta]

With 36% in and Biden trailing in fifth place with 9%, I can say with certainty his campaign is effectively over. Amazing that he was leading in the national polls until two weeks ago.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Yep.  Biden is over.  Totally incompetent execution.  These are embarrassing results for a campaign that's supposed to be run by some of the best in the biz, and I would never trust a campaign that executes like this to beat Trump.

It's a shame, Biden is a really great guy and would have been a good president.  He has by far the most complete resume and best track record of success in the race, represents a diverse and winning coalition, and holds positions that Democrats can run on and win.  He's been treated like absolute dogsh*t by everyone this campaign, especially the media, and persevered for a year only to implode because the folks running his campaign couldn't drive turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar are all good choices for the nominee, in that order IMO.  I'm on board Bloomberg 2020 at this point.

[heatcharger]

Yep.  Biden is over.  Totally incompetent execution.  These are embarrassing results for a campaign that's supposed to be run by some of the best in the biz, and I would never trust a campaign that executes like this to beat Trump.

It's a shame, Biden is a really great guy and would have been a good president.  He has by far the most complete resume and best track record of success in the race, represents a diverse and winning coalition, and holds positions that Democrats can run on and win.  He's been treated like absolute dogsh*t by everyone this campaign, especially the media, and persevered for a year only to implode because the folks running his campaign couldn't drive turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar are all good choices for the nominee, in that order IMO.  I'm on board Bloomberg 2020 at this point.

I really don't think you've thought this through. Buttigieg just doesn't have it with black voters and lacks the charisma needed to connect. I like Klobuchar's chances of finding a winning coalition better, but she's got a long way to go. But if you think Biden's campaign is proving to be a paper tiger, Bloomberg is a bigger one who just happens to have an unseemly sum of money to waste. He hasn't been in a single debate and is still negative nationally before the opposition onslaught.

I've soured on Bloomberg hard in the past week -- his strategy is moronic and threatening to detonate the party. Let's be real, there's no real path for him to get a majority of delegates. The scenario where he gets 30-35% of delegates and somehow overcomes extreme obstacles to get to 50% at a contested convention is a nightmare and you know it.

His entry into the race and his spending have made it astronomically more likely that there's a contested convention by tanking Biden's prospects, and he's an extremely flawed general election candidate if he makes it there. I'm admittedly bitter and more annoyed by the former, as I quite like Joe Biden and a hell of a lot more than anyone else in the race. But I don't think the moderates have the stomach for what's gonna happen next if they abandon him.

It's looking dire for the Democratic Party. Even if you're a Bernie Sanders fan you'd have to admit his time as frontrunner hasn't been so glorious.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

At least Jeb! got double digits and 4th place in NH. Jrb can't manage that.

[catographer]

No nominee since the McGovern-Fraser Commission reforms of 1972 has ever done as poorly as placing 4th and 5th in both of the first two states respectively. Biden needs a miracle.

[OBD]

Not gonna say it's over until NV and SC vote, but Biden's campaign is pretty much dead now. Go Pete, I guess?

[GeneralMacArthur]

Yep.  Biden is over.  Totally incompetent execution.  These are embarrassing results for a campaign that's supposed to be run by some of the best in the biz, and I would never trust a campaign that executes like this to beat Trump.

It's a shame, Biden is a really great guy and would have been a good president.  He has by far the most complete resume and best track record of success in the race, represents a diverse and winning coalition, and holds positions that Democrats can run on and win.  He's been treated like absolute dogsh*t by everyone this campaign, especially the media, and persevered for a year only to implode because the folks running his campaign couldn't drive turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar are all good choices for the nominee, in that order IMO.  I'm on board Bloomberg 2020 at this point.

I really don't think you've thought this through. Buttigieg just doesn't have it with black voters and lacks the charisma needed to connect. I like Klobuchar's chances of finding a winning coalition better, but she's got a long way to go. But if you think Biden's campaign is proving to be a paper tiger, Bloomberg is a bigger one who just happens to have an unseemly sum of money to waste. He hasn't been in a single debate and is still negative nationally before the opposition onslaught.

I've soured on Bloomberg hard in the past week -- his strategy is moronic and threatening to detonate the party. Let's be real, there's no real path for him to get a majority of delegates. The scenario where he gets 30-35% of delegates and somehow overcomes extreme obstacles to get to 50% at a contested convention is a nightmare and you know it.

His entry into the race and his spending have made it astronomically more likely that there's a contested convention by tanking Biden's prospects, and he's an extremely flawed general election candidate if he makes it there. I'm admittedly bitter and more annoyed by the former, as I quite like Joe Biden and a hell of a lot more than anyone else in the race. But I don't think the moderates have the stomach for what's gonna happen next if they abandon him.

It's looking dire for the Democratic Party. Even if you're a Bernie Sanders fan you'd have to admit his time as frontrunner hasn't been so glorious.

It's problems all around.  But Biden has now dramatically underperformed in both contests and his campaign hasn't shown any capability to recover.  If that's the kind of campaign he's running, he won't beat Trump, and I care about that more than anything else.

Sanders will not only lose to Trump, but bring the party down with him.  Warren's campaign is dead in the water.  That leaves us with Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg.  Of the three, I think Bloomberg is clearly the most capable when it comes to taking on Trump, and he already has quadruple the black support of Buttigieg and Klobuchar combined.  I'll have to see him on the debate stage before I'm certain, but Bloomberg feels like the best bet.  None of them are good bets though.  I really wanted those "Biden +6 in Ohio, -2 in Texas" poll results to play out.  But if he continues dramatically underperforming in these primary states, I'm not willing to sign onto that risk in the general election.

[John Dule]

Yep.  Biden is over.  Totally incompetent execution.  These are embarrassing results for a campaign that's supposed to be run by some of the best in the biz, and I would never trust a campaign that executes like this to beat Trump.

It's a shame, Biden is a really great guy and would have been a good president.  He has by far the most complete resume and best track record of success in the race, represents a diverse and winning coalition, and holds positions that Democrats can run on and win.  He's been treated like absolute dogsh*t by everyone this campaign, especially the media, and persevered for a year only to implode because the folks running his campaign couldn't drive turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar are all good choices for the nominee, in that order IMO.  I'm on board Bloomberg 2020 at this point.

This is so demonstrably untrue on every level; Biden has no track record of electoral success and he clearly does not represent any kind of coalition, let alone a "winning" one. The media has treated him with kid's gloves this entire cycle, as have his fellow candidates (with the notable exception of Harris). The fault here is not with the campaign. It is with the candidate. And the fact that you don't understand that even now does not bode well for your prognostications of "electability" in the future. Biden was an embarrassment from the get-go.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Biden has no track record of electoral success

I didn't say anywhere that he did, but for the record he won 7 straight senate elections in Delaware, which was a red state for much of that time.

he clearly does not represent any kind of coalition, let alone a "winning" one

Well, now he doesn't because all his support has evaporated.  Previously he had a coalition of working-class voters, black voters, and moderates.  That's a much stronger coalition to carry into a general election than "young voters who only vote when they're sufficiently inspired."

The media has treated him with kid's gloves this entire cycle, as have his fellow candidates (with the notable exception of Harris).

This is an absurd assertion.  Biden has been beaten up on the daily for campaign issues, and also had to deal with the media reporting Trump's assertions in the Ukraine scandal uncritically.  You can just go back in time and look at all the Biden scandals/gaffes that have been breathlessly covered by the media.  Or go read through the previous editions of this megathread.  As for the other candidates treating him with kid's gloves, he is the most attacked candidate with the possible exception of Warren.  I can remember attacks from the likes of Harris, Warren, Swalwell, Castro, Gillibrand, Booker, even Tom Steyer in this last debate.

The fault here is not with the campaign. It is with the candidate. And the fact that you don't understand that even now does not bode well for your prognostications of "electability" in the future. Biden was an embarrassment from the get-go.

Cool.  Who are you supporting now that Andrew Yang dropped out?

[Annatar]

I guess its time for me to stop tracking Biden vs Trump polls state by state as it seems Biden is finished, it looks like it will be a Trump vs Bernie contest. Trump has knocked out the democratic candidate that has polled the best against him on average it seems, the attacks over Ukraine surely helped weaken Biden.

[Sir Mohamed]

Calling it now: Biden is finished and should drop out. No excitement, no cash. I knew that he wouldn't be guaranteed the nomination, but that he falters this badly and so early on; 5th in NH and in single digits. He's done and should get out gracefully. He was an excellent VP to Obama and great senator, but this isn't his time.

I think he was been talked into running and decided to jump in after polls showed him to do well. This was basically Obama nostalgia and high name rec. Now that voters have seen him in action on his own, without Obama, they have concluded other candidates are better. And it's not even progressives, since moderate support goes to Butti and Klobuchar. Once Bloomberg is in, Biden has even fewer chances.

[NOVA Green]

I like Uncle Joe and would proudly support him as a DEM Standard bannerman against the current corrupt and despotic regime that is called the "Trump Administration", where "draining the swamp appears to be more like harvesting the $$$ combined with kickbacks to top Corporate interests and donors...

Their concept of draining the swamps is racking up $$$ in their bank accounts, while they claim the DEMs are corrupt, and meanwhile they rape our forests, destroy our waters, frack the eff out of the country, and claim  that "Private Property = National Interests"....

Could go on a bit longer, and unfortunately although he was my 2nd or 3rd Horse in race, appears to have hit a lame knee on the 2nd round across the tracks...

Looks like Amy & Pete might have fixed the match with some donors shifting odds on the match...

Personally, if I'm gonna be bettin' on the tracks would rather choose a horse or dog that I know, especially if gambling a few dollars here or there for a candidate that might be an unknown pony....

At this point both Pete & Klob appear like bland no name DEM candidates, almost akin to Blair still New Labor "Tories"....

Would have proudly voted Bernie, Biden, (and even Warren--- although she p/o d me at that DEM debate), but no so interested in these bland piss ant DEM candidates that have no policy positions, regurgitate DEM stump speech rhetoric, and honestly have nothing really to add to the Ntl Conversation other than: "We are Mid-West Dems and we can Win"....

Screw that crap.... they can barely win their own communities, let alone convince and mobilize a base that can beat Trump in 2020....

[John Dule]

Biden has no track record of electoral success

I didn't say anywhere that he did, but for the record he won 7 straight senate elections in Delaware, which was a red state for much of that time.

he clearly does not represent any kind of coalition, let alone a "winning" one

Well, now he doesn't because all his support has evaporated.  Previously he had a coalition of working-class voters, black voters, and moderates.  That's a much stronger coalition to carry into a general election than "young voters who only vote when they're sufficiently inspired."

The media has treated him with kid's gloves this entire cycle, as have his fellow candidates (with the notable exception of Harris).

This is an absurd assertion.  Biden has been beaten up on the daily for campaign issues, and also had to deal with the media reporting Trump's assertions in the Ukraine scandal uncritically.  You can just go back in time and look at all the Biden scandals/gaffes that have been breathlessly covered by the media.  Or go read through the previous editions of this megathread.  As for the other candidates treating him with kid's gloves, he is the most attacked candidate with the possible exception of Warren.  I can remember attacks from the likes of Harris, Warren, Swalwell, Castro, Gillibrand, Booker, even Tom Steyer in this last debate.

The fault here is not with the campaign. It is with the candidate. And the fact that you don't understand that even now does not bode well for your prognostications of "electability" in the future. Biden was an embarrassment from the get-go.

Cool.  Who are you supporting now that Andrew Yang dropped out?

Tell me, where did Biden's support "evaporate" to and why did it abandon him? The RCP average had him in a close second in Iowa; he came in fourth. He underperformed his polls in both states so far by more than five points each. Why? It's because his support was always completely shallow. "Electability" is not an issue that people get passionate about. Voters are fickle and they changed their minds to Buttigieg and Klobuchar at the last minute because Biden has always lacked a solid base of support throughout this entire cycle. His numbers were a mile wide and an inch deep. And yes, if the other candidates had taken the gloves off, they would've gotten to the bottom of this-- his aides sequestering him from the media, his belittling of voters asking him questions, his lack of energy and substance, his constant falling back on "Come on! This is not who we are!"-- none of this is indicative of a strong campaign.

And I will still be voting for Andrew Yang. He is the only reason I decided to vote this cycle and none of the other candidates have changed that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Prez Bernie and Veep Buttigieg,  nice ring to it

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Prez Bernie and Veep Buttigieg,  nice ring to it

I presume you meant to post that in the other thread?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=358836.0