The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[lfromnj]

"But we don't know all the facts! Self-defense though! He was pushed to the ground, surely that's proportional to getting shot at with a rifle!"

[Roll Roons]

I will go out on a limb and say the polls are stupidly off and Murphy wins by 11 or 12.

Well, he wasn't wrong about polls being stupidly off in NJ...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If you are going to acquit Kyle Rittenhouse because he claimed self-defense, then you might as well aquit those white men in Georgia who murdered Ahmad Aubrey. They are claiming it was self-defense and he grabbed their gun.

The legal precedent has been set in this country that you can stalk someone with a firearm, even if they have not committed a crime, and if they decide they are threatened and want to take the gun from you, or protect themselves in any way whatsoever then that means you are the victim and not them.

[Ancestral Republican]

If you are going to acquit Kyle Rittenhouse because he claimed self-defense, then you might as well aquit those white men in Georgia who murdered Ahmad Aubrey. They are claiming it was self-defense and he grabbed their gun.

The legal precedent has been set in this country that you can stalk someone with a firearm, even if they have not committed a crime, and if they decide they are threatened and want to take the gun from you, or protect themselves in any way whatsoever then that means you are the victim and not them.

The only difference is the Georgia inbreds had less competent attorneys and Arbery wasn't involved in a BLM protest at the time.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I mean, I can think of tons of other groups that have similar problems with extremists making every sensible member of the group look bad by proxy.

Groups like the Democratic party..

And the Libertarian party.

And the GOP.

But not the Greens.  They actually are all that idiotic.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It was a false-flag operation!...Am I doing this right?

[Progressive Pessimist]

It was a false-flag operation!...Am I doing this right?

In the thread that was posted in you will find that I retracted my statement and admitted that for once it was a hoax.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This entire thread lol: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=270147.0

Like nothing predicted in it was true.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

no, atlas doesn't ban people anymore

[beesley]

I'm not sure about Bordeaux vs McBath as I believe Bordeaux represents virtually all of the new district (does that cancel out McBath's other advantages? who knows).

Newman should beat Casten but it has the potential to go the other way.

Huizenga should beat Upton - I'm surprised Upton is even running. The fact that this is clearly Upton's district doesn't make up for the fact that he is otherwise highly vulnerable.

Levin lives in the district but most of it belongs to Stevens though. Tossup, though I hope Levin wins.

Mary Miller wasn't included; I think she would lose to both Bost and Davis, but I can't call that either..

I didn't include Miller because she hasn't stated in which district she will run yet

Miller is likely to win cause she'll get the Trump endorsement.

Far from guaranteed. Trump doesn't just endorse the most Trumpy candidate and only endorses primary challengers where he feels/is told people have generally done something wrong. Bost certainly isn't one of those people - the two did have an actual relationship iirc.

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1477341838981935111?t=ydrB876XFXpRDZ5B...

[brucejoel99]

Breyer's not going to retire. He's going to die on the Court and be replaced by a Republican, just like Ginsburg. Democrats never learn.

[brucejoel99]

Based on their record to date on the court, I'd say that Roberts has so far been slightly more right-wing than Alito. Indeed, of the two, I'd say that Alito has a greater chance of drifting into becoming a moderate.

[President Johnson]

An ironic post of Joe Republic about Biden's upcoming State of the Union capped at 25 people reminded me of this:

Someone needs to go after this schmuck next debate. I cant believe we're gonna nominate an 80 year old who can't draw 200 people and sucks at debates.

This is our answer to a cult.

[Ancestral Republican]

An ironic post of Joe Republic about Biden's upcoming State of the Union capped at 25 people reminded me of this:

Someone needs to go after this schmuck next debate. I cant believe we're gonna nominate an 80 year old who can't draw 200 people and sucks at debates.

This is our answer to a cult.

Biden sure did prove them wrong. He's definitely proven to be a vigorous, capable leader, with succinct, eloquent press conferences that captivate and build the public's confidence.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If she drops out the Democrats need to force everyone out and endorse Warnock.

No, they need to force Warnock to drop out and endorse Lieberman (i.e. the strongest - or rather, least weak - Democrat running).  Of course, they should be spending on the regular Georgia Senate race since unlike Warnock or Lieberman, Osoff actually has a chance of winning even if it's a long shot and the money would be much better spent on Maine, North Carolina, Montana, and (if Kobach is the Republican nominee) Kansas.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If she drops out the Democrats need to force everyone out and endorse Warnock.

No, they need to force Warnock to drop out and endorse Lieberman (i.e. the strongest - or rather, least weak - Democrat running).  Of course, they should be spending on the regular Georgia Senate race since unlike Warnock or Lieberman, Osoff actually has a chance of winning even if it's a long shot and the money would be much better spent on Maine, North Carolina, Montana, and (if Kobach is the Republican nominee) Kansas.

The DV allegation against Warnock hadn’t been discredited yet iirc and was running a piss poor campaign at the time.  Plus, Lieberman hadn’t imploded.  This was a perfectly reasonable post at the time.  In fact, it was basically the widely held CW.  Warnock was polling in fourth with about 5-7%.  Lieberman was consistently polling about 15%

Anyway, if we’re trolling through that thread:

Ossoff and Warnock are the best choices in their respective primaries and it's not even close. They balance one another out very well.

Outside of their races obviously being different, I don't see this. Both are male candidates based in the Atlanta metro who don't bring actual governing experience to the ticket.

I've made it clear on this forum I think Tomlinson is far and away the better candidate for the regularly scheduled race. It's not because I trivially or superficially like her more.

[Pollster]

If she drops out the Democrats need to force everyone out and endorse Warnock.

No, they need to force Warnock to drop out and endorse Lieberman (i.e. the strongest - or rather, least weak - Democrat running).  Of course, they should be spending on the regular Georgia Senate race since unlike Warnock or Lieberman, Osoff actually has a chance of winning even if it's a long shot and the money would be much better spent on Maine, North Carolina, Montana, and (if Kobach is the Republican nominee) Kansas.

The DV allegation against Warnock hadn’t been discredited yet iirc and was running a piss poor campaign at the time.  Plus, Lieberman hadn’t imploded.  This was a perfectly reasonable post at the time.  In fact, it was basically the widely held CW.  Warnock was polling in fourth with about 5-7%.  Lieberman was consistently polling about 15%

Anyway, if we’re trolling through that thread:

Ossoff and Warnock are the best choices in their respective primaries and it's not even close. They balance one another out very well.

Outside of their races obviously being different, I don't see this. Both are male candidates based in the Atlanta metro who don't bring actual governing experience to the ticket.

I've made it clear on this forum I think Tomlinson is far and away the better candidate for the regularly scheduled race. It's not because I trivially or superficially like her more.

To be fair, Tomlinson's dumpster fire campaign (and Ossoff's objectively superb one - very different from his 2017 smorgasbord of messaging/targeting strategy that I was expecting to see repeated) thoroughly changed this opinion

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Going to wager a guess that this was a partisan Democrat from Kentucky who was at least partly picking based on partisanship so:

favorite in ky: floyd

least favorite in ky: boone

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm not surprised. I was expecting Brown-Jackson to be nominated from the beginning. And like I said at the beginning of this process, I expect for her to be confirmed on a mostly party-line vote, with only a few crossover Republican votes.

Still think it'll be 48-50 against (Manchin and Simena abstain or find an excuse not to be in Washington during Brown-Jackson's confirmation vote).

And...

I'm not surprised. I was expecting Brown-Jackson to be nominated from the beginning. And like I said at the beginning of this process, I expect for her to be confirmed on a mostly party-line vote, with only a few crossover Republican votes.

Still think it'll be 48-50 against (Manchin and Simena abstain or find an excuse not to be in Washington during Brown-Jackson's confirmation vote).

Why would Manchin and Sinema do this? I still don't understand it, and it would be a humiliation for Biden if that was the outcome.

Because they have decided that humiliating Biden is in their political interests and it’s been their only coherent goal for the past year and change.

I don’t know why this is so hard for people to get.

[Aurelius]

Just pointing out that according to the article, it's just 1 person saying the mandate might return if cases get high enough.

A quick check of the stats shows COVID cases definitely not surging in Pennsylvania or Philadelphia, so maybe we should wait for it to actually happen before getting worked up and regurgitating all of the same posts again.

[Sestak]

Telling on myself here a bit since I recommended this post:

"Bronz discovers TikTok" has been my least-favorite story arc so far this season.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Bit up himself. Can't say I've read much he's actually written though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow, he couldn't possibly win-

*Looks at demographics*

Hello Rep. Regan.

[brucejoel99]

The confidence in which some of you proclaim Conor Lamb is DOA bc YOU don’t like him is hilarious. Every cycle some of y’all say so and so is the spawn of Satan and they win their election or y’all blow smoke up someone’s butt and they lose. Like y’all do not have a crystal ball. LOL. All I can say is I just don’t like Fetterman, I think he’s awkward, boorish, and delusional -I hope the overgrown ogre loses the primary.

https://twitter.com/MrErnestOwens/status/1526775591009243142

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Move to 'normalcy' for a few months until cases start going up and his base demands new restrictions.