The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

We got a few polls and they showed Pawlenty up by landslides. While Johnson's people are more motivated, I don't see how it could be close.

Frankly wouldn't shock me if Pawlenty won every county. Johnson's best chances are probably Wright, Sherburne and maybe some random rural one with a really far right electorate.

I can't say I'm too upset to be wrong here!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Based on the StarTrib comments, Ellison is in trouble. We'll see if my patented online comments methodology of prediction beats this poll in BRTD's backyard.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Interesting. Why would a Clinton +8 district shift so hard to Republicans? And why does Cisneros already have an underwater favorability?

Cisneros is leading among Asian voters by only 2 points (43%-41%), losing badly even among whites with college degrees, and while he’s doing well with Hispanics, they’re not really planning to vote. He’s a pretty brazen carpetbagger (he moved from Maxine Waters’s district in LA) and is getting hit hard over the sexual harassment allegations on TV.

Democrats nominated a very flawed candidate, Republicans nominated their best recruit of the cycle, and invested enough money to shift it towards Team Red.

Kim is well-liked and voters think she’s in tune with the district. She’s the new Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, basically.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lewis. He has a lot of strong potential opponents, including Pam Myrha, Elizabeth Kautz, Joe Atkins, Laurie Halverson, and Lori Swanson. Of these, I think Myrha, Kautz, or Swanson could beat Lewis.

On Paulsen's possible opponents: Ron Latz or Melissa Hortman would not be too strong. Jacob Frey, Lisa Bender, Paul Thissen, and Mike Freeman all live in Hennepin County, and one of them might "carpetbag" over to the district.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If those numbers are correct the GOP will need to start making real efforts with minorities within the next 5 years.  Those numbers aren't sustainable long term.

Even if we just assumed that all constituencies remained static and old whites are being replaced by less conservative whites... that would be enough to cause the GOP problems... then you factor in the notion that the minority population is growing and it becomes implausible to continue this.

As others have stated, young whites are almost exclusively neo-Nazi/alt-right. The country will be voting like Mississippi and Alabama in 50 years.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If those numbers are correct the GOP will need to start making real efforts with minorities within the next 5 years.  Those numbers aren't sustainable long term.

Even if we just assumed that all constituencies remained static and old whites are being replaced by less conservative whites... that would be enough to cause the GOP problems... then you factor in the notion that the minority population is growing and it becomes implausible to continue this.

As others have stated, young whites are almost exclusively neo-Nazi/alt-right. The country will be voting like Mississippi and Alabama in 50 years.

As I've said several times, the "almost exclusively" was hyperbole. Anyway, as for whites in general, Wolverine22 said something similar yesterday:

No and this is why I say that Trumpism will continue long after Trump. As whites lose the numerical majority, even Bernie supporters will become increasingly reactionary conservative/racist and embrace cynical, white nationalist politics when that brand of Trumpism fits their fears. This is why unless we see a California-like surge in non-white voters over a decade, I don’t see demographic change turning America into California. Whites will just vote more and more Republican and the GOP will be able to win elections by winning 97% of the white vote while tanking even further with minorities.

I just quoted that in the appropriate thread.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not every woman is going to end up like Clinton. Whitmer will probably win.

Every woman is potentially subject to misogyny - which some folks here will never accept, but I was proven right about Hillary when very few people agreed with me, and it looks like I'll be proven right about Whitmer.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I suspect Bernie and Warren won't run and the whole field will be corporate Democrats trying to out-SJW each other.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah this totally needs a rename now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

#Populist Beshear will win dozens of rural Appalachian counties again if nominee!

Ice what's your bet on elliot? I'm going Tilt r unless Adkins is the nominee then I think its lean d.
Previously I would have said likely but the manchin btfo in the coal counties made me change my mind.

My "bold" prediction is that Beshear wins only three counties: Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin. Maybe if he's lucky he'll win them by a large enough margin to not get BTFO statewide too badly, but I wouldn't count on it. Atlas will be dismayed because clearly he was supposed to sweep Appalachia just like Appalachian Heroes Mark Warner, Ted Strickland, Jack Conway, Richard Ojeda, Phil Bredesen, Amy McGrath, Alison Lundergan Grimes, Sherrod Brown, Joe Manchin, etc. #ILearnedNothingFrom2016Or2018

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Safe R. The margin will probably be closeish for Kentucky but that doesn’t change the fact there is no realistic way for Beshear to win

Lean Bevin. The race has definitely moved in his favor to the surprise of nobody.

Nobody? I take issue with that assertion.

Titanium R obv.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Time to stick a fork in this one. Governor Rispone is a go

Bummer.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Uh, Edwards is leading in every nonpartisan poll, folks.

Rispone doesn't have a chance.

Two words: Trump. Rallies.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/SangyeH/status/1201510817365217280?s=19

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The poll results: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=348223.0

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Democratic establishment has already crowned Kamala Harris as their chosen nominee, before a single vote has even been cast. To avoid another Bernie debacle, they've decided to nip this one in the bud through a highly coordinated smear campaign using leftist media outlets and morons on Twitter.

Simple enough.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why does this thread even exist? It's obvious Kamala Harris will be the nominee. Who you want as the nominee is irrelevant.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nobody knows, but if he really got 300,000 people to sign up for his Tulsa rally it's gargantuan. This weekend, thousands of people lined the piers of San Diego to celebrate his 74th birthday. The support out there for him is massive. But we've created so many echo chambers on the left that we don't understand why he is so popular.

Some liberals across the nation sign up for his rallies with no intention of going just to keep the seats empty.

And in any case rally size doesn't mean anything in terms of electoral results. Just ask Democratic nominee Bernie Sanders.

He has a cult base, sure, we know that. But there are no signs he's expanded it or that it will be enough for him.

Bernie's largest rally was around 25,000 IIRC. 300,000 is out of this world level.

There’s an enormous difference between entering your name on a website and actually attending a rally, Beet. I know at least some of those 300,000 are liberals screwing with the Trump campaign and many of the rest may have no intent of attending.

Good god it's a million now. Even if half a million liberals were just entering their names into his website to screw with him this is shaping up to be the biggest political rally in national history, if not world history. Trump's popularity is messianic. We need more Trump supporters here because most people here don't understand him or his people.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In light of the Trump Tulsa rally numbers fiasco...

If those numbers are correct the GOP will need to start making real efforts with minorities within the next 5 years.  Those numbers aren't sustainable long term.

Even if we just assumed that all constituencies remained static and old whites are being replaced by less conservative whites... that would be enough to cause the GOP problems... then you factor in the notion that the minority population is growing and it becomes implausible to continue this.

As others have stated, young whites are almost exclusively neo-Nazi/alt-right. The country will be voting like Mississippi and Alabama in 50 years.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Joshua Collins is going to Congress. Holy sh*t.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The more you mock me, the more satisfying it will be when Trump wins because Biden put all his eggs in the those three states and couldn't pull off the hat trick. What's very interesting though, is how after all the response, not one of you has been able to come up with a counter argument to my points.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Let's hope it does. I want the Republican Party to die a miserable death like it deserved after 2008.

Your establishment hack candidates like Ossoff will still lose. Sad!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Unless and big unless here, Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination. Bernie Sanders might be the only person who can beat Donald Trump. But I don't know if he actually ends up running. He would be by far the oldest president ever.

Reason being as to why I think this is, Democrats have nobody exciting or new to run, just the same old ideas by the same politicians. Same thing happened with the Republicans in 2012, they didn't have anybody good to run. Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, same old crap. These millennials are getting older (Gen Z will start to vote in 2020) and the more time goes on the more Bernie-like the base of the party is going to become. Even Warren I don't think can beat Trump.

The economy will ultimately be the reason he gets re-elected. Despite all the negative media coverage of Tweets and stupid stuff he says on a weekly basis, there will be no economic reason the people who voted for him in 2016 will vote for a Democrat in 2020. And he may get some establishment Republican voters back. In addition, we're in an era where a 40%-ish approval rating is good enough if the alternative is worse. Politics is now a lesser of two evils game, Trump may have a below average approval and still win. Polling will be misleading once again and underestimate Trump, and people will have not learned their lesson from 2016. White working class voters will stand behind him once again, and he'll probably win the same states give or take one or two. The only thing that may hinder him in the electoral college is the increasing share of Latino vote that will make Arizona close and Florida even closer.

Dig this up two and a half years from now, and either laugh at me or applaud me, but I won't care either way, it's very unlikely I'll still remember this place by that time. I'm ultimately just posting this to have some courage in my gut, but I genuinely do predict this.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

We'll see him and others celebrating on here once Chauvin is acquitted, naturally.