The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Trump and Carter seem to have similar electoral maps and coalitions (both did very well in the Midwest and the South and poorly in the Northeast and the West).

However, I don't see a Reagan awaiting in the wings for the Dems.  I could be wrong, though.

I mean the laziest Reagan analogy is Sanders.

There are many differences between Reagan and Sanders


- Reagan for one was the two term governor of the largest state of the union , Bernie Sanders is a senator from one of the smallest states.

- Reagan while rhetorically was very conservative, he was very much a pragmatist while Governing(Both in CA and as President) , while Bernie has never been a pragmatist.

- The state of the nation was far far worse in 1980 than it likely will be in 2020

- Reagan's coalition and base was basically just an extension of Nixon's (The Suburbs and the Sunbelt) while Bernie's is not an an extension of Obama's and is much better suited for the New Deal Era(his coalition relies more on the support of WWC while Obama's was Affluent Suburbs )

That one...
aged...
not well...

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump and Carter seem to have similar electoral maps and coalitions (both did very well in the Midwest and the South and poorly in the Northeast and the West).

However, I don't see a Reagan awaiting in the wings for the Dems.  I could be wrong, though.

I mean the laziest Reagan analogy is Sanders.

There are many differences between Reagan and Sanders


- Reagan for one was the two term governor of the largest state of the union , Bernie Sanders is a senator from one of the smallest states.

- Reagan while rhetorically was very conservative, he was very much a pragmatist while Governing(Both in CA and as President) , while Bernie has never been a pragmatist.

- The state of the nation was far far worse in 1980 than it likely will be in 2020

- Reagan's coalition and base was basically just an extension of Nixon's (The Suburbs and the Sunbelt) while Bernie's is not an an extension of Obama's and is much better suited for the New Deal Era(his coalition relies more on the support of WWC while Obama's was Affluent Suburbs )

That one...
aged...
not well...

Note I said likely

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

There are many differences between Reagan and Sanders


- Reagan for one was the two term governor of the largest state of the union , Bernie Sanders is a senator from one of the smallest states.

- Reagan while rhetorically was very conservative, he was very much a pragmatist while Governing(Both in CA and as President) , while Bernie has never been a pragmatist.

- The state of the nation was far far worse in 1980 than it likely will be in 2020

- Reagan's coalition and base was basically just an extension of Nixon's (The Suburbs and the Sunbelt) while Bernie's is not an an extension of Obama's and is much better suited for the New Deal Era(his coalition relies more on the support of WWC while Obama's was Affluent Suburbs )

That one...
aged...
not well...

Note I said likely

I know. Also, at least you had it right for roughly two months.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Joshua Collins is going to Congress. Holy sh*t.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251497.0

[free my dawg]

I just spent about a few months sweating bullets over a credible GOP plant possibly winning a downballot race in my state. With most of the Executive Council being in close races, this seat could have been the deciding vote between Sununu getting a rubber stamp to appoint political hacks to key offices.

Despite not living in the district, I neurotically followed the seat, hoping that this man would lose. I actually thought the GOP plant would win, due to recent events in MA-4 and him having a lot of clout in the party before his turn to bothsidesism.

He currently has 8% of the vote.

[Hammy]

Trump's approval rating is now higher than at any point in his presidency except immediately post-inauguration and during his pandemic bump. With just a month to go until his re-election, it continues to barrel higher with no sign of slowing.

Meanwhile just over a week later...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Coattails from Trump and the Senate nominee, should be enough to drag down both Slotkin and Stevens, I say we need a C-lister in MI-08 and a B-lister in MI-11

[S019]

Coattails from Trump and the Senate nominee, should be enough to drag down both Slotkin and Stevens, I say we need a C-lister in MI-08 and a B-lister in MI-11

That post was when it was assumed that the natural environment will be neutral (i.e. pre-COVID)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Coattails from Trump and the Senate nominee, should be enough to drag down both Slotkin and Stevens, I say we need a C-lister in MI-08 and a B-lister in MI-11

That post was when it was assumed that the natural environment will be neutral (i.e. pre-COVID)

And it was wrong then too

[VAR]

Coattails from Trump and the Senate nominee, should be enough to drag down both Slotkin and Stevens, I say we need a C-lister in MI-08 and a B-lister in MI-11

That post was when it was assumed that the natural environment will be neutral (i.e. pre-COVID)

Well, the national environment was fairly neutral, and Slotkin and Stevens still won. 

[Kingpoleon]

An oldie but a goodie:

The political sun has set for Perdue

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

An oldie but a goodie:

The political sun has set for Perdue

TBF I was in middle school at the time

[Kingpoleon]

An oldie but a goodie:

The political sun has set for Perdue

TBF I was in middle school at the time

My favorite part is how you felt the need to clarify that you did not mean the literal sun was setting on him.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

An oldie but a goodie:

The political sun has set for Perdue

TBF I was in middle school at the time

My favorite part is how you felt the need to clarify that you did not mean the literal sun was setting on him.

I doubt I gave it that much thought tbh.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This exchange I had in June - just few days after joining Talk Elections - is probably my worst-aged content so far.

I don't know if this is unpopular but I think there won't be any Clinton-Trump county.

I think the only worries are Burke Co., Georgia and Kenedy Co., TX.

I didn't know Burke County, GA. It seems plausible given that Stacey Abrams lost it.
Ah and of course, yeah, Kenedy County, TX is so sparsely populated that pretty much everything can happen.
If there is to be one, after these two I would bet on Clinton County, NY.

Biden's numbers in New York polling seems to show him doing much better than Clinton, I doubt he loses any upstate counties Clinton won.

It's mainly the rural, low population, heavily racially polarized counties where minority populations are either dwindling (rural Georgia counties like Burke or Dillon, SC) or Hispanic populations with inconsistent turnout (Kenedy and Kleberg in Texas, a few counties in south Colorado and New Mexico, razor thin margin CA counties like Fresno and Riverside) that are potential Clinton->Trump flips.

I get your point about racially polarized counties, and I agree with it, but I take issue with:
1) the most recent polls in New York are from May, and they show Biden +25 and Biden+23, which is not exactly great in a Clinton +22.5 state
2) Hillary Clinton won Fresno County by 6% and Riverside County by 5%. Those are emphatically not razor thin margins

(I should also note that Andrew Cuomo in 2018 lost 4 upstate counties won by Clinton, despite the fact that he won the state by a slightly larger margin)

[brucejoel99]

An oldie but a goodie:

Biden had his chance, he blew it (it's unclear if he or a top aid decided to plagerize a speech by Neil Kanock).

[brucejoel99]

Speaking of goodies:

GA is actually looking like it's going to come down to 1% either way. The votes are coming in around metro ATL and they are not good for Trump vs. 2016 and 2018.

HAHAHAHAHAHA. Christ. Stop. Just stop

What's your thinking? You can quote me on this. Look at the margins and swings from 2016 coming out of Fulton, Dekalb, Gwinnett, Cobb. Even Cherokee and Fayette...

Called it

You called nothing. It’s NOT HAPPENING. You’ll see. Quote me. Write it down

[KaiserDave]

The fact that Millennial Moderate still thinks he can show his face in any thread related to Georgia is a disgrace.

[H. Ross Peron]

Al Franken? I could beat him. Give us Al Franken, the former writer for Playboy. Do it! Nominate Al Franken. LMAO his running mate could be Larry Flint or better yet better yet George Soros. I can see the ads now showing potential playboy parties at OUR WHITE HOUSE. Let the GOP run against him. PLEASE!!!

This post is ironic on multiple levels such as Franken being pressured by an increasingly MeToo conscious Democratic Party to resign from the Senate as well as Republicans complaining about Franken's Playboy ties when they ended up electing Trump.

[brucejoel99]

In light of Doug Jones' magnificent time in the Senate coming to an end:

There's a very reasonable argument that we should just play it safe and make Strange the nominee, rather than enter the high-risk high-reward situation of Moore vs. Jones.

[VAR]

Georgia is going to flip.

Bwahahahahahahahahahahaha...wait you are being serious?

Susan Collins is DOA.

[brucejoel99]

Sometimes, you just have to cringe at yourself:

Rachel Bitecofer is a QUEEN & all of you non-believers will be begging for her mercy come the morning of November 4th!

[VAR]

Biden's loss is an even bigger disgrace than Kerry losing to Bush.

[brucejoel99]

MAKE IT MAKE SENSE!

How is Georgia looking?

Perdue has easily won.

Trump won narrowly which is miraculous for Dems. The state has been a lost cause for years and especially this cycle. No matter how much of a hard on they get for it - it’s not happening and the fact people still at this hour believe it to have a chance of going Dem just shows the bankruptcy of their political analysis