Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[Kingpoleon]

Svaty should run for Chair of the Kansas Democratic Party. He’s certainly showed that he can hold his own, despite not winning the primary.

[President Johnson]

I hope Colyer edges this out and he can somehow find the 200 votes he needs to win. We can't afford Kobach. Yes, Colyer is still a HP, but he's a much lesser evil than KKKobach.

Did Democrats underperform here or why are there so much less votes cast in the primary? Looks like they are doomed in November, or are there so many Republicans crossing over on the state level?

You do realize Kobach is easier to beat, right?

Some, like President Johnson, care about making sure all parties' nominees are the best they can be out of the available crop. Others, like many here, don't.

Depends on how the race stands. For Gavin Newsom for example, I wanted the weakest candidate so that he wins by the biggest margin possible. But he would win regardless. That's not the case in Kansas, and, despite the bar being low, Colyer is still better than Kobach.

[Greedo punched first]

I wish Kansas had a jungle primary. Opposition against Kobach wouldn't be divided.

Well, the general election would be Colyer vs. Kobach if Kansas had the same primary as California does. A run-off like in Texas or Georgia would be interesting, but Kobach would probably win the second round.

At least Colyer would beat Kobach with a jungle primary.

[tmthforu94]

I can see that argument for Congress as majorities are at stake, but I don't see the obsession with "weakest possible nominee" argument for Gubernatorial races.

Generally speaking, I want each state in the union to be successful and hope that the best nominees are put forward. For almost all of you, whether or not Kobach or Colyer is the nominee and whether or not Kansas has a GOP or DEM governor will have almost no impact on your life, so why not want just each party to put their best possible candidate forward? Unless people are just hacks who only cares about your party winning as many elections as possible.

[Progressive Pessimist]

What the heck? 191 votes? Someone tell me again every vote doesn't count.

If there is a recount, who will most likely benefit?

Kobach, because as Secretary of State he will find a way to make himself win. I wouldn't put it past him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What the heck? 191 votes? Someone tell me again every vote doesn't count.

If there is a recount, who will most likely benefit?

Kobach, because as Secretary of State he will find a way to make himself win. I wouldn't put it past him.

"Hmm....all of these Colyer votes were cast by illegal aliens!  Throw them out!"

[Xing]

I can only imagine the reaction of Kobach and his supporters if he's still ahead after provisional ballots are counted, but the recount puts Colyer ahead...

[smoltchanov]

I can see that argument for Congress as majorities are at stake, but I don't see the obsession with "weakest possible nominee" argument for Gubernatorial races.

Generally speaking, I want each state in the union to be successful and hope that the best nominees are put forward. For almost all of you, whether or not Kobach or Colyer is the nominee and whether or not Kansas has a GOP or DEM governor will have almost no impact on your life, so why not want just each party to put their best possible candidate forward? Unless people are just hacks who only cares about your party winning as many elections as possible.

+100. But - don't forget, that majority of Atlas posters are unabashed party hacks, who prefer to be called by more pleasant word "activists". People and their life are nothing for them, party, ideological "purity" and so on - everything. So much, that sometimes i simply want to throw up. Particularily on THIS site Democratic hacks prevail, though, of course, there is no shortage of Republican ones too. It's a fact. Thank God, that there are normal people in our life...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I can see that argument for Congress as majorities are at stake, but I don't see the obsession with "weakest possible nominee" argument for Gubernatorial races.

Generally speaking, I want each state in the union to be successful and hope that the best nominees are put forward. For almost all of you, whether or not Kobach or Colyer is the nominee and whether or not Kansas has a GOP or DEM governor will have almost no impact on your life, so why not want just each party to put their best possible candidate forward? Unless people are just hacks who only cares about your party winning as many elections as possible.

[wesmoorenerd]

I mean, to be fair, I want the Democrats winning as many elections as possible in November. But I'd still rather have Colyer than Kobach. Kobach is a fascist and one of the most dangerous candidates in modern America. He's anti-democracy, on par with the NCGOP. Colyer may be Brownback 2.0 but at least he's presumably committed to the democratic process.

[DINGO Joe]

Svaty should run for Chair of the Kansas Democratic Party. He’s certainly showed that he can hold his own, despite not winning the primary.

Didn't closely follow the race, but I don't really get  Svaty's rural strategy.  What scenario could conceivably have created enough voters to make it work?  

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Kobach is one of the few politicians that would force me to vote Trump if it was a choice between someone and Trump (Tom Cotton is the other). I'm rooting for Colyer. Speaking of Trump, a lot of Dems night that he'd be easy to beat. Look how well that went.

[wesmoorenerd]

Svaty should run for Chair of the Kansas Democratic Party. He’s certainly showed that he can hold his own, despite not winning the primary.

Didn't closely follow the race, but I don't really get  Svaty's rural strategy.  What scenario could conceivably have created enough voters to make it work?  

Svaty is the archetypal example of a candidate that gets hyped up by Atlas/Election Twitter people despite never having a chance in the first place. Despite the fact that he was third in both the polls we got of the primary, so many people on Atlas were anticipating some "Svaty surge" that would carry him to the frontrunner position and lead the KS Dem party to some populist resurgence. Instead, he came in third with a pathetic high teens percentage of the vote, behind Carl Brewer, a man that is only marginally more charismatic than a loaf of bread. Svaty never had a chance. He has no base within the Democratic party, and despite being a good GE candidate in theory, he has little to offer the Democratic base. I would say I hope election nerds learned their lesson about hyping populist hero candidates from this, but we both know that'll never happen.

[smoltchanov]

Svaty should run for Chair of the Kansas Democratic Party. He’s certainly showed that he can hold his own, despite not winning the primary.

Didn't closely follow the race, but I don't really get  Svaty's rural strategy.  What scenario could conceivably have created enough voters to make it work?  

Svaty is the archetypal example of a candidate that gets hyped up by Atlas/Election Twitter people despite never having a chance in the first place. Despite the fact that he was third in both the polls we got of the primary, so many people on Atlas were anticipating some "Svaty surge" that would carry him to the frontrunner position and lead the KS Dem party to some populist resurgence. Instead, he came in third with a pathetic high teens percentage of the vote, behind Carl Brewer, a man that is only marginally more charismatic than a loaf of bread. Svaty never had a chance. He has no base within the Democratic party, and despite being a good GE candidate in theory, he has little to offer the Democratic base. I would say I hope election nerds learned their lesson about hyping populist hero candidates from this, but we both know that'll never happen.

Well, agree. But winning GE is, for me at least, far more important then winning primary. In the past people understood it. That's why Democrats ran unabashed conservatives (like Thomas Abernathy) in rural southern districts, and Republicans - unabashed liberals (Ogden Reid, Charles Whalen) - in liberal one's. Now BOTH parties, and, especially, their "bases" degenerated to the level i can't even describe without using absolutely profane words..

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Svaty should run for Chair of the Kansas Democratic Party. He’s certainly showed that he can hold his own, despite not winning the primary.

Didn't closely follow the race, but I don't really get  Svaty's rural strategy.  What scenario could conceivably have created enough voters to make it work?  

Svaty is the archetypal example of a candidate that gets hyped up by Atlas/Election Twitter people despite never having a chance in the first place. Despite the fact that he was third in both the polls we got of the primary, so many people on Atlas were anticipating some "Svaty surge" that would carry him to the frontrunner position and lead the KS Dem party to some populist resurgence. Instead, he came in third with a pathetic high teens percentage of the vote, behind Carl Brewer, a man that is only marginally more charismatic than a loaf of bread. Svaty never had a chance. He has no base within the Democratic party, and despite being a good GE candidate in theory, he has little to offer the Democratic base. I would say I hope election nerds learned their lesson about hyping populist hero candidates from this, but we both know that'll never happen.

I mean Brewer must have had some decent amount of skill to be a black democratic mayor of freaking podunk Cletus Witchita Kansas lol.

[IceSpear]

Svaty should run for Chair of the Kansas Democratic Party. He’s certainly showed that he can hold his own, despite not winning the primary.

Didn't closely follow the race, but I don't really get  Svaty's rural strategy.  What scenario could conceivably have created enough voters to make it work?  

Svaty is the archetypal example of a candidate that gets hyped up by Atlas/Election Twitter people despite never having a chance in the first place. Despite the fact that he was third in both the polls we got of the primary, so many people on Atlas were anticipating some "Svaty surge" that would carry him to the frontrunner position and lead the KS Dem party to some populist resurgence. Instead, he came in third with a pathetic high teens percentage of the vote, behind Carl Brewer, a man that is only marginally more charismatic than a loaf of bread. Svaty never had a chance. He has no base within the Democratic party, and despite being a good GE candidate in theory, he has little to offer the Democratic base. I would say I hope election nerds learned their lesson about hyping populist hero candidates from this, but we both know that'll never happen.

I mean Brewer must have had some decent amount of skill to be a black democratic mayor of freaking podunk Cletus Witchita Kansas lol.

Wichita actually has a fairly decent sized black and Hispanic population.

[DINGO Joe]

Svaty should run for Chair of the Kansas Democratic Party. He’s certainly showed that he can hold his own, despite not winning the primary.

Didn't closely follow the race, but I don't really get  Svaty's rural strategy.  What scenario could conceivably have created enough voters to make it work?  

Svaty is the archetypal example of a candidate that gets hyped up by Atlas/Election Twitter people despite never having a chance in the first place. Despite the fact that he was third in both the polls we got of the primary, so many people on Atlas were anticipating some "Svaty surge" that would carry him to the frontrunner position and lead the KS Dem party to some populist resurgence. Instead, he came in third with a pathetic high teens percentage of the vote, behind Carl Brewer, a man that is only marginally more charismatic than a loaf of bread. Svaty never had a chance. He has no base within the Democratic party, and despite being a good GE candidate in theory, he has little to offer the Democratic base. I would say I hope election nerds learned their lesson about hyping populist hero candidates from this, but we both know that'll never happen.

Well, he did have a base, just a very small one and given the primary rules in KS, the available pool of voters for the D primary in the rural part of the state is pretty darn small, so it's just kind of hard to see how it could have worked under any circumstance.

[Pandaguineapig]

I f Kobach holds on (I'm hoping against hope that he doesn't) this race probably starts out tilt/lean R. In an R vs. D race it would be a tossup but with Orman on the ballot ballot he probably takes enough moderates and independents to allow Kobach to win. Kobach is polarizing but he probably count on about 45% of the vote

[VPH]

Svaty should run for Chair of the Kansas Democratic Party. He’s certainly showed that he can hold his own, despite not winning the primary.

Didn't closely follow the race, but I don't really get  Svaty's rural strategy.  What scenario could conceivably have created enough voters to make it work?  

Svaty is the archetypal example of a candidate that gets hyped up by Atlas/Election Twitter people despite never having a chance in the first place. Despite the fact that he was third in both the polls we got of the primary, so many people on Atlas were anticipating some "Svaty surge" that would carry him to the frontrunner position and lead the KS Dem party to some populist resurgence. Instead, he came in third with a pathetic high teens percentage of the vote, behind Carl Brewer, a man that is only marginally more charismatic than a loaf of bread. Svaty never had a chance. He has no base within the Democratic party, and despite being a good GE candidate in theory, he has little to offer the Democratic base. I would say I hope election nerds learned their lesson about hyping populist hero candidates from this, but we both know that'll never happen.

Well, he did have a base, just a very small one and given the primary rules in KS, the available pool of voters for the D primary in the rural part of the state is pretty darn small, so it's just kind of hard to see how it could have worked under any circumstance.

These takes are a bit ignorant. Svaty's issue was that he never went on TV. Brewer had name recognition. Kelly had TV ads and some name rec. Svaty didn't. That was it. It wasn't about not having a base.

[tmthforu94]

BREAKING NEWS

https://twitter.com/Melissa_Brunner/status/1027623137398145025

Margin down to 91 votes with 8-10k provisional ballots left to be counted.

[TheSaint250]

C'mon, Colyer!

[Alabama_Indy10]

C'mon, Colyer!

[IceSpear]

BREAKING NEWS

https://twitter.com/Melissa_Brunner/status/1027623137398145025

Margin down to 91 votes with 8-10k provisional ballots left to be counted.

You KNOW Kobach is going to cry fraud if this changes the outcome, lol.

Are provisional ballots expected to favor one candidate over the other?

[Politician]

C'mon, Kobach!

[tmthforu94]

BREAKING NEWS

https://twitter.com/Melissa_Brunner/status/1027623137398145025

Margin down to 91 votes with 8-10k provisional ballots left to be counted.

You KNOW Kobach is going to cry fraud if this changes the outcome, lol.

Are provisional ballots expected to favor one candidate over the other?

This is mostly heresay, but I've heard that provisional ballots generally are people who are younger and less rural, which would benefit Colyer. The remaining absentee voters should also favor Colyer - most of those votes will have been before the Trump endorsement and Colyer won the early vote by several points.

I'd certainly rather be ahead by 91 votes than behind, but at this point I think it is way too premature to call Kobach the presumptive nominee, it could still easily change.