Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[smoltchanov]

Also happy to see Welder looking like he'll lose.

I second your feelings....

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also happy to see Welder looking like he'll lose.

I second your feelings....

thirded

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kobach doesn't deserve the nomination. He's a utter nut. Better Colyer is nominated and likely wins that we get the risk of Governor Kobach.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_gubernatorial_election,_2018#Polling_3

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kansas-republicans-we-need-to-see-obamas-birth-certificate/

Stop acting like Colyer is this moderating force for good.

It's very easy to look like a moderating force for good when compared to Kobach.

[smoltchanov]

Kobach doesn't deserve the nomination. He's a utter nut. Better Colyer is nominated and likely wins that we get the risk of Governor Kobach.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_gubernatorial_election,_2018#Polling_3

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kansas-republicans-we-need-to-see-obamas-birth-certificate/

Stop acting like Colyer is this moderating force for good.

It's very easy to look like a moderating force for good when compared to Kobach.

Seconded. Evetyone knows that Colyer is a "solid conservative", but, compared to Kobach - ...... If there wouldn't be Orman in the race - i would buy the logic, that "Kobach is easier to beat", and so on...  But, with Orman in the race, there is quite good chance of him (Kobach) winning with plurality (Kansas variant of Paul LePage). IMHO - that's too dangerous (i stress the word "too"). That's the only reason i prefer Colyer in present situation (i am much more liberal then he is, but still - see some small but important behavoiral differences between him and Kobach).

[windjammer]

It seems Colyer is going to win by 1000 votes, unless the precincts remaining are located in pro kobach areas

[smoltchanov]

Kobach by 191. How final it is?

[Sestak]

100% reporting, Kobach up by just under 200 votes.

[Free Bird]

Horrifying as this result is, this is the kind of election, primary or general, that we all live for, let's be honest.

[Skye]

This is a bit horrifying.

[IceSpear]

I will feel very bad for the people of Kansas if Kobach wins LePage-style. If a majority or near majority supported him I'd be fine with them getting what they deserve, but the fact that he could theoretically win with 40% of the vote is horrifying.

[smoltchanov]

I will feel very bad for the people of Kansas if Kobach wins LePage-style. If a majority or near majority supported him I'd be fine with them getting what they deserve, but the fact that he could theoretically win with 40% of the vote is horrifying.

Easily. Something like 40 (Kobach) - 40 (Kelly) - 20 (Orman) is quite feasible, for example... Though may be now Orman will attract more potentially Republican votes  from moderates, then Democratic....

[Free Bird]

Now besides his voter fraud fetish, what's so bad about Kobach?

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1027175411518775296

[smoltchanov]

Now besides his voter fraud fetish, what's so bad about Kobach?

Voter suppression and generally ultrareactionary views. Probably - to the right of Brownback. More then enough for my tastes....

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1027175411518775296

I kind of doubt that. KS Democrats are the ones who have to live with him if he wins. Most people happy about it are probably from out of state.

[libertpaulian]

Recount imminent?

[2016]

Recount? Will Colyer ask for one?

[tmthforu94]

40.6%   Kris Kobach   126,257   
40.5%   Jeff Colyer*   126,066

There will be recounts, also provisional ballots which should favor Colyer but we’ll see.

[smoltchanov]

I will feel very bad for the people of Kansas if Kobach wins LePage-style. If a majority or near majority supported him I'd be fine with them getting what they deserve, but the fact that he could theoretically win with 40% of the vote is horrifying.

Well the idiots who waste votes on clown Orman knowing full well Kobach could win get zero sympathy from me

You don't believe that Orman (centrist, and past candidate) has at least some following in the state? Everyone must vote for Democrat? What if Kelly is "too liberal" for some, just as Kobach is "too reactionary"?

[Sir Mohamed]

What the heck? 191 votes? Someone tell me again every vote doesn't count.

If there is a recount, who will most likely benefit?

[Oryxslayer]

This has to be perfect for the dems: Kobach ahead but we will have to go through the long and divisive recount process.

[windjammer]

I think the margin can change with the absentees etc

[tmthforu94]

What the heck? 191 votes? Someone tell me again every vote doesn't count.

If there is a recount, who will most likely benefit?

There were over 6000 provisional votes, I'm not sure who that will benefit.


Basically this is what happened last night: Colyer outperformed Early Vote and overall just exceeded expectations, leading many to believe that he would pull it out...only for him to under-perform on JoCo Election Day vote. He won early vote in JoCo by 14 points but appears to only have won ED vote by 1-2 points. Even a small boost to that margin and he'd be claiming victory right now.

JoCo had a lot of irregularities and I'm hopeful that any recount there will benefit Colyer since his margin was surprisingly small. No one is going to request  recount, though, until all provisional ballots are in. That won't be under Friday at the earliest, most likely Monday.

[136or142]

What the heck? 191 votes? Someone tell me again every vote doesn't count.

If there is a recount, who will most likely benefit?

There were over 6000 provisional votes, I'm not sure who that will benefit.


Basically this is what happened last night: Colyer outperformed Early Vote and overall just exceeded expectations, leading many to believe that he would pull it out...only for him to under-perform on JoCo Election Day vote. He won early vote in JoCo by 14 points but appears to only have won ED vote by 1-2 points. Even a small boost to that margin and he'd be claiming victory right now.

JoCo had a lot of irregularities and I'm hopeful that any recount there will benefit Colyer since his margin was surprisingly small. No one is going to request  recount, though, until all provisional ballots are in. That won't be under Friday at the earliest, most likely Monday.

At a minimum it's ironic that there were vote count irregularities, however, maybe it should also be taken into account that Kobach is from Overland Park which is a suburb of Kansas City (not that Kansas City has a much larger population.)  So, I don't know that it's a surprise that Kobach did relatively well in Johnson County.

[Sir Mohamed]

What the heck? 191 votes? Someone tell me again every vote doesn't count.

If there is a recount, who will most likely benefit?

There were over 6000 provisional votes, I'm not sure who that will benefit.


Basically this is what happened last night: Colyer outperformed Early Vote and overall just exceeded expectations, leading many to believe that he would pull it out...only for him to under-perform on JoCo Election Day vote. He won early vote in JoCo by 14 points but appears to only have won ED vote by 1-2 points. Even a small boost to that margin and he'd be claiming victory right now.

JoCo had a lot of irregularities and I'm hopeful that any recount there will benefit Colyer since his margin was surprisingly small. No one is going to request  recount, though, until all provisional ballots are in. That won't be under Friday at the earliest, most likely Monday.

Thanks for clearing! We'll see what happens.