Canadian Election Results Thread
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October 20, 2021, 05:37:45 AM

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adma
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« Reply #875 on: May 26, 2011, 08:39:56 PM »

04-06-08-11: BC

===================================
 
ABBOTSFORD
Con 122758 (63.26)
NDP 31112 (16.03)
Lib 28494 (14.68)
GP 9408 (4.85)
MP 1096 (.56)
CHP 585 (.30)
ML 423 (.22)
CAP 173 (.09)
194049
 
BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHERN INTERIOR
NDP 86901 (45.74)
Con 62283 (32.78)
Lib 22857 (12.03)
GP 16647 (8.76)
Ind 591 (.31)
MP 391 (.21)
ML 242 (.13)
CAP 87 (.05)
189999
 
BURNABY-DOUGLAS **
NDP 71885 (37.83)
Con 63069 (33.19)
Lib 45455 (23.92)
GP 7957 (4.19)
Ltn 711 (.37)
Com 616 (.32)
Ind 282 (.15)
ML 57 (.03)
190032
 
BURNABY-NEW WESTMINSTER
NDP 73790 (42.28)
Con 53344 (30.56)
Lib 38329 (21.96)
GP 8058 (4.62)
Ltn 346 (.20)
CAP 312 (.18)
ML 190 (.11)
Com 166 (.10)
174535
 
CARIBOO-PRINCE GEORGE
Con 86425 (50.76)
NDP 45028 (26.45)
Lib 25415 (14.93)
GP 9530 (5.60)
CHP 945 (.56)
Ind 729 (.43)
CAP 687 (.40)
Ind 478 (.28)
Ind 394 (.23)
Rhi 204 (.12)
ML 188 (.11)
Ltn 148 (.09)
FPNP 95 (.06)
170266
 
CHILLIWACK-FRASER CANYON
Con 108296 (57.33)
NDP 40741 (21.57)
Lib 25665 (13.59)
GP 10191 (5.39)
CHP 2744 (1.45)
MP 603 (.32)
ML 495 (.26)
WBP 180 (.10)
188915
 
DELTA-RICHMOND EAST
Con 97214 (51.01)
Lib 49525 (25.99)
NDP 31998 (16.79)
GP 11467 (6.02)
NAF 220 (.12)
Ltn 147 (.08)
190571
 
ESQUIMALT-JUAN DE FUCA ** **
Con 75364 (31.79)
NDP 74936 (31.61)
Lib 66631 (28.10)
GP 18658 (7.87)
CAP 505 (.21)
Ind 309 (.13)
WBP 272 (.11)
Ind 229 (.10)
Ind 181 (.08)
237085
 
FLEETWOOD-PORT KELLS
Con 73968 (40.86)
NDP 49386 (27.28)
Lib 45860 (25.33)
GP 8064 (4.45)
Ind 3202 (1.77)
Ltn 370 (.20)
ML 167 (.09)
181017
 
KAMLOOPS-THOMPSON-CARIBOO
Con 96450 (44.69)
NDP 70380 (32.61)
Lib 36289 (16.81)
GP 12093 (5.60)
Ind 440 (.20)
CHP 191 (.09)
215843
 
KELOWNA-LAKE COUNTRY
Con 120200 (52.77)
Lib 44454 (19.51)
NDP 40438 (17.75)
GP 21551 (9.46)
CAP 494 (.22)
MP 447 (.20)
Com 218 (.10)
227802
 
KOOTENAY-COLUMBIA
Con 90829 (55.42)
NDP 43423 (26.50)
Lib 17334 (10.58)
GP 11528 (7.03)
Ind 636 (.39)
CAP 132 (.08)
163882
 
LANGLEY
Con 121130 (56.69)
NDP 38736 (18.13)
Lib 36080 (16.89)
GP 14133 (6.61)
Ind 2422 (1.13)
CHP 594 (.28)
PP 353 (.17)
CAP 211 (.10)
213659
 
NANAIMO-ALBERNI *
Con 108659 (43.46)
NDP 84332 (33.73)
Lib 34355 (13.74)
GP 19675 (7.87)
Ind 920 (.37)
MP 560 (.22)
ML 410 (.16)
CHP 406 (.16)
PP 363 (.15)
CAP 314 (.13)
249994
 
NANAIMO-COWICHAN
NDP 112527 (46.21)
Con 85884 (35.27)
Lib 26099 (10.72)
GP 17750 (7.29)
CAP 547 (.22)
ML 500 (.21)
Ind 229 (.09)
243536
 
NEWTON-NORTH DELTA ** **
Lib 59006 (33.45)
Con 55370 (31.39)
NDP 53280 (30.20)
GP 7461 (4.23)
Com 447 (.25)
Ind 319 (.18)
Ind 179 (.10)
Ind 126 (.07)
Ind 123 (.07)
Ind 106 (.06)
176417
 
NEW WESTMINSTER-COQUITLAM **
NDP 78817 (39.76)
Con 72262 (36.45)
Lib 34695 (17.50)
GP 9914 (5.00)
Ind 1174 (.59)
CHP 700 (.35)
Ltn 314 (.16)
ML 252 (.13)
Ind 123 (.06)
198251
 
NORTH VANCOUVER **
Con 95936 (41.05)
Lib 87192 (37.31)
NDP 31904 (13.65)
GP 17769 (7.60)
Ind 350 (.15)
ML 189 (.08)
CAP 181 (.08)
Ltn 166 (.07)
233687
 
OKANAGAN-COQUIHALLA
Con 106788 (52.95)
NDP 40258 (19.96)
Lib 34485 (17.10)
GP 18306 (9.08)
Ind 860 (.43)
MP 548 (.27)
CAP 259 (.13)
Ind 180 (.09)
201684
 
OKANAGAN-SHUSWAP
Con 107903 (49.70)
NDP 52698 (24.27)
Lib 33626 (15.49)
GP 19974 (9.20)
NAF 1242 (.57)
CAP 707 (.33)
MP 492 (.23)
Ind 359 (.17)
NAF 104 (.05)
217105
 
PITT MEADOWS-MAPLE RIDGE-MISSION
Con 94751 (46.38)
NDP 69647 (34.09)
Lib 27189 (13.31)
GP 10691 (5.23)
NAF 798 (.39)
MP 327 (.16)
Ltn 300 (.15)
Ind 277 (.14)
Ind 137 (.07)
Ind 101 (.05)
ML 95 (.05)
204313
 
PORT MOODY-WESTWOOD-PORT COQUITLAM
Con 91341 (48.24)
NDP 48237 (25.47)
Lib 36607 (19.33)
GP 9323 (4.92)
Ind 2317 (1.22)
Ltn 1327 (.70)
CAP 111 (.06)
Com 94 (.05)
189357
 
PRINCE GEORGE-PEACE RIVER
Con 89964 (61.07)
NDP 29924 (20.31)
Lib 15839 (10.75)
GP 10424 (7.08)
PP 415 (.28)
Ind 351 (.24)
CAP 301 (.20)
ML 101 (.07)
147319
 
RICHMOND
Con 77829 (45.64)
Lib 58164 (34.11)
NDP 25167 (14.76)
GP 8495 (4.98)
Ind 395 (.23)
CAP 376 (.22)
Ind 91 (.05)
170517
 
SAANICH-GULF ISLANDS
Con 99001 (37.67)
Lib 63800 (24.28)
GP 55827 (21.24)
NDP 43060 (16.39)
WBP 378 (.14)
Ltn 246 (.09)
Ind 214 (.08)
CAP 139 (.05)
CHP 114 (.04)
262779
 
SKEENA-BULKLEY VALLEY
NDP 68852 (47.54)
Con 49742 (34.34)
Lib 15994 (11.04)
GP 5004 (3.45)
CHP 4806 (3.32)
CAP 277 (.19)
ML 161 (.11)
144836
 
SOUTH SURREY-WHITE ROCK-CLOVERDALE
Con 112349 (50.25)
Lib 58237 (26.05)
NDP 36215 (16.20)
GP 14208 (6.35)
PC 794 (.36)
Ind 753 (.34)
CHP 429 (.19)
CAP 272 (.12)
Ind 189 (.08)
Ind 152 (.07)
223598
 
SURREY NORTH *
NDP 51905 (36.56)
Con 41099 (28.95)
Lib 24428 (17.21)
Ind 15089 (10.63)
GP 4833 (3.40)
CHP 1658 (1.17)
Ltn 631 (.44)
Ind 512 (.36)
Ind 451 (.32)
Ind 420 (.30)
PC 373 (.26)
Ind 271 (.19)
CAP 190 (.13)
Com 93 (.06)
141953
 
VANCOUVER CENTRE
Lib 84059 (37.31)
NDP 60796 (26.99)
Con 51334 (22.79)
GP 26363 (11.70)
Ltn 1261 (.56)
CHP 373 (.17)
PC 285 (.13)
MP 259 (.11)
PP 192 (.09)
ML 156 (.07)
CAP 101 (.04)
Com 96 (.04)
225275
 
VANCOUVER EAST
NDP 97679 (57.65)
Lib 32184 (18.99)
Con 24577 (14.51)
GP 12992 (7.67)
ML 489 (.29)
WLP 425 (.25)
MP 399 (.24)
CAP 293 (.17)
CHP 250 (.15)
NAF 147 (.09)
169435
 
VANCOUVER ISLAND NORTH **
Con 94838 (42.14)
NDP 90647 (40.28)
Lib 24010 (10.67)
GP 14733 (6.55)
Ind 666 (.30)
ML 168 (.07)
225062
 
VANCOUVER-KINGSWAY *
NDP 70771 (39.10)
Lib 59289 (32.76)
Con 41292 (22.81)
GP 7719 (4.26)
Ltn 861 (.48)
Com 835 (.46)
NAF 548 (.30)
ML 389 (.21)
CAP 285 (.16)
180989
 
VANCOUVER-QUADRA
Lib 106138 (47.39)
Con 73037 (32.61)
NDP 29719 (13.27)
GP 13930 (6.22)
Ltn 484 (.22)
Ind 263 (.12)
CAP 165 (.07)
MP 158 (.07)
ML 89 (.04)
223983
 
VANCOUVER SOUTH *
Lib 70901 (41.35)
Con 57876 (33.76)
NDP 35171 (20.51)
GP 6116 (3.57)
ML 754 (.44)
CHP 339 (.20)
Com 105 (.06)
NAF 98 (.06)
CAP 90 (.05)
171450
 
VICTORIA
NDP 99054 (41.29)
Con 58569 (24.42)
Lib 55908 (23.31)
GP 25110 (10.47)
MP 311 (.13)
Ind 282 (.12)
CHP 237 (.10)
WBP 208 (.09)
CAP 206 (.09)
239885
 
WEST VANCOUVER-SUNSHINE COAST-SEA TO SKY COUNTRY
Con 99826 (40.33)
Lib 73744 (29.80)
NDP 49478 (19.99)
GP 23012 (9.30)
CAP 385 (.16)
ML 355 (.14)
PC 293 (.12)
Ltn 250 (.10)
WBP 156 (.06)
247499
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mileslunn
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« Reply #876 on: May 26, 2011, 08:41:05 PM »

Looking at the results themselves many make some sense, but I do have some questions which hopefully others can answer.

1.  Why have the Conservatives gained so heavily in Manitoba.  They got 39% in 2004 and 54% in the last election, otherwise a 15% jump more so than Ontario.  They have an NDP government that is reasonably popular, they are still a have not province, and there doesn't seem to be any issue that would drive them towards the Conservatives unlike Saskatchewan which has a strong resource sector, a have province, and has a popular premier who is centre-right.

2.  How come the Liberals held their ground in university towns like Guelph and Kingston & the Islands.  I know those cities are more liberal than the surrounding ridings, but it seems odd the NDP didn't gain there and that the Liberals didn't implode like they did elsewhere in Ontario

3.  What is with Quebec swinging en masse towards a certain party be in the PCs in 1984, BQ in 1993, ADQ in 2007, or NDP in 2011.  You don't see those type of wild swings in English Canada very often.  I know Quebec leans more to the left than the rest of Canada but not by the degree the results suggests.


4.  Since 2004, it appears the vote percentage has been fairly consistent with only minor changes in Ottawa unlike elsewhere.  Is it because they are more politically engaged thus more firm in their views or is there another reason the party support is relatively consistent in Ottawa.

If anyone has the answers to these, it would be greatly appreciated.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #877 on: May 26, 2011, 09:40:34 PM »

Well, the OVR are out... just  not online.  We had a meeting today, and the NDP candidate in Ottawa South showed me the poll by poll results, and we won 3 polls and tied 2 others! Cheesy (that's big news for that riding)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #878 on: May 26, 2011, 10:04:45 PM »

Well, the OVR are out... just  not online.  We had a meeting today, and the NDP candidate in Ottawa South showed me the poll by poll results, and we won 3 polls and tied 2 others! Cheesy (that's big news for that riding)

Any idea when they will be online.  I went to do the county by county results as well as municipality by municipality as I did for the 2008 election
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #879 on: May 26, 2011, 10:37:35 PM »

I'd be careful, too, but in both directions, and it all depends on how the NDP "establishes" itself over the next few years--in the end, any breakthrough here might have less to do with the now-decimated 70s-style "working class" than with a little Millerite Parkdale-High Park yupscale energy spilling over the Humber.  Or other factors--after all, a "validated" NDP could, with the right candidates and campaigns, wind up making critical breakthroughs in parts of Brampton/Mississauga that aren't Bramalea-Gore-Malton.  Remember that there may be a pool of "latent/potential" 905ish NDP support that was still suppressed this past election, due to uncertainty about an untested brand and untested local candidates and maybe residual memories of 1990...

How about David Miller as a federal NDP candidate in 2015?
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #880 on: May 26, 2011, 10:39:11 PM »

I'd be careful, too, but in both directions, and it all depends on how the NDP "establishes" itself over the next few years--in the end, any breakthrough here might have less to do with the now-decimated 70s-style "working class" than with a little Millerite Parkdale-High Park yupscale energy spilling over the Humber.  Or other factors--after all, a "validated" NDP could, with the right candidates and campaigns, wind up making critical breakthroughs in parts of Brampton/Mississauga that aren't Bramalea-Gore-Malton.  Remember that there may be a pool of "latent/potential" 905ish NDP support that was still suppressed this past election, due to uncertainty about an untested brand and untested local candidates and maybe residual memories of 1990...

How about David Miller as the federal NDP candidate in Etobicoke-Lakeshore?
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DL
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« Reply #881 on: May 26, 2011, 10:43:05 PM »

MIller doesn't have any particular tied to Etobicoke-Lakeshore. I think if he ever ran federally for the NDP, the logical place for him to run would be in Toronto Centre
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #882 on: May 26, 2011, 11:52:04 PM »

1.  Why have the Conservatives gained so heavily in Manitoba.  They got 39% in 2004 and 54% in the last election, otherwise a 15% jump more so than Ontario.  They have an NDP government that is reasonably popular, they are still a have not province, and there doesn't seem to be any issue that would drive them towards the Conservatives unlike Saskatchewan which has a strong resource sector, a have province, and has a popular premier who is centre-right.

There's your answer. Note that the NDP vote share didn't pick up much in Nova Scotia, either.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #883 on: May 26, 2011, 11:53:43 PM »

Well, the OVR are out... just  not online.  We had a meeting today, and the NDP candidate in Ottawa South showed me the poll by poll results, and we won 3 polls and tied 2 others! Cheesy (that's big news for that riding)

Any idea when they will be online.  I went to do the county by county results as well as municipality by municipality as I did for the 2008 election

Usually, it is 90 days after the election, on Internet. Numbers are already avaliable for the candidates and the media.

And according to Wikipedia, Miller left NDP in 2007.
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Holmes
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« Reply #884 on: May 27, 2011, 06:01:10 AM »

I thought he left the NDP so to not seem like a partisan mayor... although near the end of his term, I think he had quite a few separate issues.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #885 on: May 27, 2011, 08:26:57 AM »

I thought he left the NDP so to not seem like a partisan mayor... although near the end of his term, I think he had quite a few separate issues.

Yeah, Miller's not that popular any more... maybe he should go to Winnipeg to run there (to compensate for the fact that the former mayor of Winnipeg is now the MPP for Toronto Centre)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #886 on: May 27, 2011, 09:40:10 AM »

Long term averages always remind me of that great book Henry Pelling did on pre-1918 elections in Britain.
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DL
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« Reply #887 on: May 27, 2011, 10:02:34 AM »

1.  Why have the Conservatives gained so heavily in Manitoba.  They got 39% in 2004 and 54% in the last election, otherwise a 15% jump more so than Ontario.  They have an NDP government that is reasonably popular, they are still a have not province, and there doesn't seem to be any issue that would drive them towards the Conservatives unlike Saskatchewan which has a strong resource sector, a have province, and has a popular premier who is centre-right.

There's your answer. Note that the NDP vote share didn't pick up much in Nova Scotia, either.

In Nova Scotia the NDP vote also already very high - I think that in the '08 election the NDP had its highest provincial vote% in Canada in NS with 30% - so it it didn't have all that much room to grow further. In other provinces like BC, Alberta, Ontario, NB and (and of course Quebec) it was clear that the NDP had much more room to grow.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #888 on: May 27, 2011, 10:04:49 AM »

If we're talking about vote increases, don't forget Saskatchewan either.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #889 on: May 27, 2011, 12:13:05 PM »

Cartogram:

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DL
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« Reply #890 on: May 27, 2011, 12:39:31 PM »

looks like a peacock feather!
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mileslunn
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« Reply #891 on: May 27, 2011, 05:59:16 PM »

There's your answer. Note that the NDP vote share didn't pick up much in Nova Scotia, either.

True, but the NDP is not very popular in Nova Scotia so it makes sense the Tories would do well much like BC and Ontario (here it was the Liberals, but the NDP did bad either way) in the 90s and Saskatchewan in 2004 and 2006.  However, the NDP did alright in the 90s in Saskatchewan when Roy Romanow was premier and quite popular.  In Manitoba I thought the NDP was fairly popular thus why the heavy swing towards the Tories.  And once the NDP is turfed, do you think Manitoba will be like BC where the Tories maintain a strong base but decline somewhat.  In the last four elections when the NDP was out of power provincially they were unable to match the 49% the Canadian Alliance got in 2000.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #892 on: May 29, 2011, 12:33:30 PM »

Here are some breakdowns I got so far.  These are different regions and in cases where ridings overlapped, I put them in whichever one was a better fit.

Canada

Atlantic Canada

Con 37.9%
NDP 29.5%
Lib 29.3%

Maritimes (excludes Newfounland & Labrador)

Con 40.1%
NDP 28.8%
Lib 27.3%

English Canada

Con 47.7%
NDP 26.4%
Liberal 20.6%

Eastern English Canada (Atlantic Canada + Ontario i.e. the Liberal former strongholds)

Con 43.3%
NDP 26.3%
Lib 26.0%

Eastern Canada (Everything east of the Manitoba/Ontario border)

Con 33.6%
NDP 32.2%
Lib 21.7%

Central Canada (Ontario + Quebec)

Con 33.1%
NDP 32.6%
Lib 20.8%

Western Canada (excludes the North)

Con 54.7%
NDP 26.5%
Lib 11.9%

Prairies

Con 62.0%
NDP 21.7%
Lib 10.7%

Saskitoba

Con 54.8%
NDP 28.9%
Lib 12.7%

Northern Canada

Con 36.4%
NDP 27.7%
Lib 26.4%
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mileslunn
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« Reply #893 on: May 29, 2011, 12:49:42 PM »

Here is Atlantic Canada breakdown within the provinces

Newfoundland & Labrador

Newfoundland (excludes Labrador)

Lib 37.8%
NDP 33.2%
Con 27.7%

Rural Newfoundland & Labrador

Lib 50.8%
Con 32.4%
NDP 15.5%

St. John's (the ridings the city itself will have to wait for the poll breakdowns)

NDP 60.2%
Con 21.8%
Lib 17.0%

Avalon Peninsula

NDP 46.2%
Con 27.5%
Lib 25.2%

Nova Scotia

Mainland Nova Scotia (excludes Cape Breton Island ridings)

Con 37.2%
NDP 32.4%
Lib 26.2%

Rural Nova Scotia (excludes the four Halifax area ridings)

Con 43.7%
Lib 30.0%
NDP 22.3%

Halifax

NDP 42.7%
Lib 27.2%
Con 25.8%

Cape Breton Island

Lib 43.1%
Con 34.3%
NDP 19.3%

Rural Mainland Nova Scotia

Con 47.0%
Lib 25.4%
NDP 23.4%

PEI

Rural PEI (excludes Charlottetown)

Con 43.8%
Lib 41.4%
NDP 12.4%

New Brunswick

Urban New Brunswick (Saint John + Moncton-Rivierview-Dieppe)

Con 41.8%
NDP 29.6%
Lib 24.7%

Rural New Brunswick

Con 44.5%
NDP 29.9%
Lib 22.0%

Northern New Brunswick (MDR, Mir, AB, BJ, and MRD)

NDP 34.2% (got slightly more votes than the Conservatives)
Con 34.2%
Lib 28.4%

Southern New Brunswick (the remaining ridings)

Con 54.7%
NDP 24.9%
Lib 16.1%

Francophone New Brunswick (MDR, AB, and Beausejour)

NDP 39.1%
Con 29.1%
Lib 28.8%

Francophone + Bilingual New Brunswick (includes Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe)

NDP 36.2%
Con 30.9%
Lib 29.5%

Anglophone New Brunswick (all Anglophone majority ridings save Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe)

Con 54.4%
NDP 24.6%
Lib 17.0%

Anglophone + Bilingual New Brunswick (includes Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe)

Con 50.9%
NDP 25.4%
Lib 19.7%
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mileslunn
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« Reply #894 on: May 29, 2011, 01:08:28 PM »

Now here is Quebec.  There are some overlapping ones.  I also tried to use the divisions from DemocraticSpace and Election Prediction and Wikipedia, so if it says Wikipedia it is those ridings and EPP for Election prediction and DP for Democratic Space

Eastern Quebec

NDP 34.3%
BQ 29.0%
Con 21.6%
Lib 13.2%

Eastern Quebec (wikipedia)

NDP 34.1%
Con 27.6%
BQ 25.2%
Lib 11.2%

Appalaches-Chaudieres

Con 45.6%
NDP 32.5%
BQ 13.2%
Lib 6.9%

Gaspesie-Appalaches

Con 35.2%
NDP 33.3%
BQ 20.1%
Lib 9.6%

Eastern Townships (wikipedia)

NDP 42.0%
BQ 23.5%
Con 22.3%
Lib 10.2%

Eastern Townships (EPP)

NDP 43.4%
BQ 28.7%
Con 14.5%
Lib 11.2%

L'Estrie

NDP 45.7%
BQ 26.8%
Con 14.9%
Lib 10.6%

Monteregie

NDP 45.2%
BQ 27.7%
Con 12.5%
Lib 11.0%

Island of Montreal

NDP 38.3%
Lib 27.3%
BQ 18.1%
Con 13.3%

West Island (EPP)

NDP 34.5%
Lib 32.5%
Con 20.2%
BQ 9.2%

Eastern Montreal

NDP 48.6%
BQ 33.1%
Lib 9.8%
Con 5.5%

Eastern Montreal (wikipedia)

NDP 46.2%
BQ 30.3%
Lib 13.8%
Con 6.9%

Northern Montreal

Lib 35.4%
NDP 32.0%
BQ 20.9%
Con 9.5%

Laval

NDP 44.4%
Lib 20.4%
BQ 19.5%
Con 13.2%

Laurentides

NDP 48.3%
BQ 29.6%
Lib 10.0%
Con 9.5%

Outaouis

NDP 56.1%
Lib 15.9%
Con 15.1%
BQ 11.2%

Lanaudiere

NDP 48.2%
BQ 30.9%
Con 9.6%
Lib 8.3%

Centre du Quebec

NDP 44.1%
BQ 31.1%
Con 13.0%
Lib 8.7%

Quebec City

NDP 42.3%
Con 26.8%
BQ 20.4%
Lib 8.4%

Capitale Nationale

NDP 42.4%
Con 22.5%
BQ 20.5%
Lib 8.1%

Nord du Quebec

NDP 41.5%
BQ 26.5%
Con 24.7%
Lib 5.3%

Saguenay

NDP 37.2%
Con 34.6%
BQ 22.8%
Lib 3.8%

Quebec outside Island of Montreal

NDP 44.1%
BQ 24.9%
Con 17.7%
Lib 10.3%

I'll do Ontario later today.  These are just meant to get an idea of how the different areas of the provinces went on the whole.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #895 on: May 29, 2011, 02:08:16 PM »

Some surprises include the NDP winning northern New Brunswick with just one seat (wow!) and doing better in the rest of Quebec compared to Montreal.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #896 on: May 29, 2011, 02:29:00 PM »

Some surprises include the NDP winning northern New Brunswick with just one seat (wow!) and doing better in the rest of Quebec compared to Montreal.
Godin's personal vote is ridiculously massive.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #897 on: May 29, 2011, 08:19:56 PM »

Some surprises include the NDP winning northern New Brunswick with just one seat (wow!) and doing better in the rest of Quebec compared to Montreal.
  A lot of that has to do with the obscenely large margins Yvon Godin won by.  While some were certainly genuinely NDP votes, I think a fair number were personal votes considering he won in 2000 when the NDP was much weaker.  In fact if you took his riding out, the Conservatives would have gotten 47.6% in New Brunswick making it their best province outside the Prairies, otherwise beating out both BC and Ontario.  The NDP would have gotten 24.4% while the Liberals would have gotten 23.8%, otherwise his riding really pushed the NDP up in New Brunswick.  It could also be argued Egmont did the same for the Tories in PEI who got 173 votes more than the Liberals yet won only one seat.  Also in Saskatchewan, the Liberals got under 9% vs. the NDP's 32% yet due to Ralph Goodale's popularity, the Liberals won a seat but the NDP did not.  In smal provinces if you have a popular candidate in one riding it can skew the results whereas in large provinces things tend to balance out more.


In the case of the NDP doing better outside the Island of Montreal, not a total surprise as the surge as strongest amongst Francophones.  I suspect amongst Francophones only they did better in Montreal than elsewhere.  They did surprisingly well amongst Anglophones, although considering that many are quite wealthy, I think the NDP's ability for growth amongst them is limited.  In fact it appears a large number of Anglophone Liberals swung over to the Tories whereas amongst Francophones they lost votes.  Also North Montreal is where the Liberals still finished ahead so it appears the Liberals maintained their lead amongst Allophoness.  Unlike in the GVRD and GTA neither the NDP or Tories really targeted the ethnic community too heavily in Montreal so it will be interesting to see what happens next time around.  I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP gains heavily amongst the ethnic voters in Montreal.  It will also be interesting to see how much time Jason Kenney spends in Montreal as he spent a lot of time in the GTA and GVRD but not much in Montreal and in many ways he was the key architect behind the Tory breakthrough amongst ethnic voters.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #898 on: May 29, 2011, 08:42:59 PM »

Okay, here is Ontario in the 416 and 905 area codes, otherwise the Golden Horseshoe

Toronto (416 area code only)

Lib 34.7%
Con 31.0%
NDP 30.7%

Ontario outside 416 area code

Con 47.4%
NDP 24.5%
Lib 23.2%

Etobicoke

Lib 39.1%
Con 38.8%
NDP 19.0%

Scarborough (excludes Pickering-Scarborough East)

Lib 33.7%
Con 33.0%
NDP 30.4%

Suburban Toronto (wikipedia)

Lib 36.6%
Con 36.5%
NDP 24.2%

Central Toronto (wikipdia)

NDP 37.2%
Lib 32.8%
Con 25.4%

Durham Regional Municipality (includes Pickering-Scarborough East)

Con 50.2%
NDP 22.7%
Lib 22.5%

York Regional Municipality (includes all of York-Simcoe)

Con 52%
Lib 26.7%
NDP 16.8%

Peel Regional Muncipality (Excludes Caledon from Dufferin-Caledon)

Con 43.7%
Lib 34%
NDP 19.2%

Brampton (Includes all of Bramalea-Gore-Malton and excludes MBS)

Con 42.3%
Lib 30.7%
NDP 23.6%

Mississauga (excludes BGM and includes all of MBS)

Con 44.6%
Lib 36.2%
NDP 16.3%

Mississauga, Brampton, and Oakville

Con 44.6%
Lib 33.6%
NDP 18.6%

Southern Durham & York (wikipedia)

Con 50%
Lib 27.8%
NDP 18.7%

Halton Regional Municipality (excludes Halton Hills from Wellington-Halton Hills)

Con 53.6%
Lib 26.5%
NDP 16.2%

Hamilton (entire city but excludes the portion in Niagara West-Glanbrook)

NDP 40.4%
Con 37.7%
Lib 17.5%

Hamilton City Core (includes the three NDP ridings only in the city)

NDP 49.4%
Con 32.2%
Lib 14.6%

Niagara Regional Municipality

Con 50.6%
NDP 27.6%
Lib 17%


Hamilton-Niagara

Con 44.4%
NDP 33.8%
Lib 17.3%

The 905 Region (only the GTA portion, excludes the Hamilton-Niagara portion)

Con 49%
Lib 28.3%
NDP 18.8%

Burlington, Hamilton & Niagara (wikipedia)

Con 45.6%
NDP 31.9%
Lib 18%

GTA

Con 41.1%
Lib 31.1%
NDP 24%

905 Belt

Con 47.9%
Lib 25.5%
NDP 22.5%

Ontario outside GTA

Con 46.8%
NDP 26.8%
Lib 21.3%

Golden Horseshoe

Con 41.6%
Lib 29%
NDP 25.6%

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mileslunn
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« Reply #899 on: May 29, 2011, 08:54:15 PM »

Here is Ontario outside the GTA

Midwestern Ontario

Con 50.1%
Lib 23.4%
NDP 21.4%

Kitchener-Waterloo Region

Con 47.4%
Lib 26.5%
NDP 21.5%

London (three city ridings only)

Con 39%
NDP 32.3%
Lib 25%

Southwestern Ontario

Con 45.4%
NDP 33.5%
Lib 17.4%

519 Area code

Con 48%
NDP 26.9%
Lib 20.7%

Essex County (excludes Leamington which is Chatham-Kent-Essex)

NDP 45.5%
Con 38.6%
Lib 12.8%

Windsor (includes Tecumseh which is in Windsor-Tecumseh)

NDP 52%
Con 32.7%
Lib 12%

Central Ontario (705 area code)

Con 54.9%
NDP 17.9%
Lib 15.4%

Central Ontario (DS)

Con 55.1%
NDP 21.1%
Lib 16.1%

Central Ontario (wikipedia)

Con 55.4%
NDP 19.7%
Lib 16.5%

Northern Ontario (includes Parry Sound-Muskoka)

NDP 41.6%
Con 35.6%
Lib 18.9%

Southern Ontario

Con 45.1%
Lib 25.8%
NDP 24.4%

Northern Ontario (DS)

NDP 43.9%
Con 32.9%
Lib 19.9%

Ottawa (amalgamated version)

Con 41.7%
Lib 30.9%
NDP 23%

Eastern Ontario (Wikipedia and DS)

Con 53%
Lib 21.3%
NDP 19.7%

613 area code

Con 47.6%
Lib 25.8%
NDP 21.3%
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