Canadian Election Results Thread
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December 02, 2021, 08:59:40 PM

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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 124578 times)
mileslunn
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« Reply #1000 on: June 21, 2011, 09:45:33 PM »

Here are the Independents over 10%.  I just did one map here.  3 of the five (Andre Arthur, James Ford, and Helena Guergis) are pretty much Conservatives running as independents while Hec Cloutier is a former Liberal but fairly right leaning though.

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adma
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« Reply #1001 on: June 21, 2011, 10:00:07 PM »

I would imagine that one of the reasons the Greens have always done so poorly in Quebec is that the NDP (before its breakthrough, of course) filled the leftish protest vote niche.

Actually, in much of Quebec in 2004 the Greens did equivalently to or better than the NDP (and maybe with an assist from the Rhino/Natural Law/Marijuana having-fun-with-the-ballot-box impulse among Quebeccers).  But remember that the NDP itself entered that election with such an abysmal AudreyAlexa-era polling history in QC: they were too negligible to fill any "leftish protest vote niche".  You know what *really* filled that niche in those years?  The Bloc.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #1002 on: June 21, 2011, 11:56:31 PM »

The indy vote %s are all here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_candidates,_2011_Canadian_federal_election I did those a week or so ago.

Right now I'm doing Canada with AV for my blog. Should be ready in a few days. I have the Tories winning a minority with it.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #1003 on: June 22, 2011, 12:00:27 AM »

Nanos:

Cons: 42%
NDP: 28%
Libs: 22%
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DL
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« Reply #1004 on: June 22, 2011, 11:00:33 AM »

If you want examples of how moribund the Green party is in Quebec - consider how Elizabeth May trotted out some journalist last year to be her Quebec Lieut. he last literally three months then quit the Greens and joined the BQ (maybe he should have gone NDP - he might be in Parliament now). Then May picked some hockey player Georges Laraque with ZERO political experience to be her "deputy leader" in Quebec (his only apparent qualification for being second in command in the Green party was that he was a vegan!). He did not seek a seat and was missing in action the whole campaign.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #1005 on: June 22, 2011, 10:29:03 PM »

Ah yes, Georges Laracque. Canadians parties like to have hockey players amongst their midst.  I recall at the 2008 NDP convention, Andrew Ferrence spoke to us. No way he could be a candidate though, considering he gave the finger to Montreal fans in the playoffs... and well I'm sure he would hurt in Vancouver.

I guess with Dryden out, the only hockey playing parliamentarian is Sen. Frank Mahovalich?
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EarlAW
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« Reply #1006 on: June 24, 2011, 10:36:36 AM »

Meanwhile the NDP is at 53% in Quebec: http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201106/23/01-4411867-le-npd-encore-plus-populaire-quaux-elections.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_vous_suggere_4411829_article_POS2
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Holmes
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« Reply #1007 on: June 24, 2011, 04:53:50 PM »

53%? That'd nearly be a sweep of all seats. Heh. Also, wow at Bloc in third. Hopefully these numbers can stick until the next election, and the NDP doesn't piss off English Canada in the meantime. Smiley It'll be quite a balancing act. Well, the election isn't for four years anyway, so whatever.

Here's an English version: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/06/24/ndp-quebec-support-bloc-quebecios_n_883287.html
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1008 on: June 25, 2011, 01:52:37 PM »

53%? That'd nearly be a sweep of all seats. Heh. Also, wow at Bloc in third. Hopefully these numbers can stick until the next election, and the NDP doesn't piss off English Canada in the meantime. Smiley It'll be quite a balancing act. Well, the election isn't for four years anyway, so whatever.

Here's an English version: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/06/24/ndp-quebec-support-bloc-quebecios_n_883287.html
  I wonder if the Canada Post issues is having any impact.  Quebec tends to be far more pro-labour union than English Canada so the NDP may be benefitting from this.  Historically many of the businesses were owned by Anglophones thus Quebec's strong affinity for labour.  On the other hand, the Canada Post issue may hurt the NDP in Ontario where people tend to feel public sector unions get too many benefits compared to similiar jobs in the private sector.  I suspect the slight Tory rise in Quebec is mostly amongst older rural nationalists who voted Bloc Quebecois.  Up until this election, the Bloc overwhelmingly appealed to left of centre voters, but most of that swung to the NDP, thus the 23% who voted Bloc are probably much more evenly split between those on the right and those on the left.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #1009 on: June 25, 2011, 03:52:08 PM »

The NDP is already back at near normal levels in Ontario.
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Smid
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« Reply #1010 on: June 25, 2011, 11:53:31 PM »
« Edited: June 30, 2011, 01:59:44 AM by Smid »

Party Swing Maps:

Conservative



There were two ridings where the Conservatives received the same vote as last time - of course, they didn't run in one of the seats at the past two elections, so I probably could have used the Independent's vote as a proxy-Conservative vote, but it doesn't really matter.


Liberal




NDP

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Smid
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« Reply #1011 on: June 26, 2011, 12:07:01 AM »
« Edited: June 28, 2011, 01:32:49 AM by Smid »

Found an error in my earlier map - 2006, New Brunswick Southwest was held by the Conservatives, not the Liberals. I've edited the maps in the gallery to reflect this correction:



Earl, you may want to adjust that on your website. Sorry to cause trouble.

Edit: To correct subsequently noted errors.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1012 on: June 26, 2011, 12:59:31 AM »

Thanks, mate! Smiley
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EarlAW
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« Reply #1013 on: June 26, 2011, 01:42:28 AM »

Blog post about your recent map created Smiley
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Shilly
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« Reply #1014 on: June 26, 2011, 01:49:43 AM »

Might want to check Ottawa Vanier. Tongue
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1015 on: June 26, 2011, 02:06:27 AM »

Random-Burin-St. George's is wrong too. *sigh*
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1016 on: June 26, 2011, 02:08:51 AM »

Actually, there's quite a few errors. Will have to take a look at this one more closely.
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Smid
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« Reply #1017 on: June 26, 2011, 03:08:40 AM »

My apologies! I'll check over my spreadsheets. I had found a couple of errors previously, which I corrected, but obviously a fair number have slipped past me. Let me know any that you spot and I'll start fixing them up.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1018 on: June 26, 2011, 03:17:54 AM »

My apologies! I'll check over my spreadsheets. I had found a couple of errors previously, which I corrected, but obviously a fair number have slipped past me. Let me know any that you spot and I'll start fixing them up.

Ive already fixed them. If I recall, they were also South Shore, Thunder Bay SN, and Victoria. But I may have forgotten some of the errors.
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Smid
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« Reply #1019 on: June 27, 2011, 09:51:12 PM »

My apologies! I'll check over my spreadsheets. I had found a couple of errors previously, which I corrected, but obviously a fair number have slipped past me. Let me know any that you spot and I'll start fixing them up.

Ive already fixed them. If I recall, they were also South Shore, Thunder Bay SN, and Victoria. But I may have forgotten some of the errors.

Plus St John's South - Mount Pearl.

Going through presently, compiling first a list of winners in each riding, then will make a map just showing winners (not margins), then will compare the winners map to my map and try to spot errors, then go back and correct errors in my spreadsheet. Sorry about all of this. Not quite sure how this happened.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1020 on: June 27, 2011, 10:11:34 PM »

I caught St. John's too...

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Smid
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« Reply #1021 on: June 28, 2011, 12:08:06 AM »
« Edited: June 28, 2011, 12:15:13 AM by Smid »

I think the errors are limited to those six ridings:

Random - Burin - St George's
St John's South - Mount Pearl
South Shore - St Margaret's
Ottawa - Vanier
Thunder Bay - Superior North
Victoria (was correct in the spreadsheet, but unshaded on my map).

I'm terribly embarrassed by this. I think the numbers are now correct. I'll update the map in a moment.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1022 on: June 28, 2011, 06:06:36 AM »

Well, for what it's worth, Joe Comuzzi did switch to the Tories, although he was re-elected as a Liberal.
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Smid
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« Reply #1023 on: June 30, 2011, 02:07:09 AM »

Liberal and NDP swing maps up now (editing doesn't show up as a new post).
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1024 on: June 30, 2011, 04:35:50 AM »

Quebec is very easy to spot on NDP map.
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