Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Person Man]

There's just something about posters with blue Pennsylvania avatars and my ignore list.

[Person Man]

Note how much lower No Opinion is with Trump. His Approval Minus Disapproval is a better comparison.

And his net approvals are still the furthest underwater. Also the fact that he has never been above water outside of his two weeks' honeymoon should be telling. Maybe Trump does pretty well in 2020, but Clinton, Reagan, and Obama all had horrible midterms. And then there was Carter who had an OK one only to get blasted in the ass in 1980.

[Person Man]

Trump surging, #RedWave, etc etc

Because people are selling their old



and buying new

[Person Man]

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Trump got an impressive 70% disapproval amongst 18-29 year olds.

It's as if we have the six-year itch of a two-term Presidency in the second year. The sixth year corresponds to wave years for the opposing party -- Republicans enduring huge losses in the House and Senate in 1974 and  losing both Houses in 2006, and Democrats losing the Senate in 2014 before America became a near-single-Party dictatorship in 2016.

Maybe it is Republicans acting as if Democrats have no relevancy that rushes a Democratic wave in 2018.

Ironically, Clinton whether the six year itch and almost go the Senate back. Even Reagan lost the Senate in 1986.

[Person Man]

Everyone interested in polling should read this entire (longish) thread:

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1035590339803983874

Good stuff.

He definitely learned his lesson. The pollsters, or at least those B and above, know what they are talking about. Even 2016, they were right. It's just there were 10% undecideds and 18% didn't like anyone. They just broke 2 to 1 against the lazier campaign and 45 + 3 is 48 and 40+6 is 46. The election day break won Trump surprise wins in Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin,  and Pennsylvania.

[Person Man]

To simplify-

He got in with 46% of the vote. That's about where he started on election day. After the "let's give him a chance" ended and the cancellation of the ACA was actively being considered, he went down to 42%. Then he got a Syria bump to like 44% and ACA cancellation was stalled and he went down to 40%. The Charolettsvile got him down to 38% and then the stalled tax plan got him down to 36%. When they reached an agreement, he got a bump to 40% because free money, right? Then it focused people on the economy and then there was the Olympics and trying to make friends with Kim. That got him back to 43%. Then the entire Manofraud thing got him back down to 40%. Am I wrong? Are we caught up?

[Person Man]

Atlas posters after two or three polls show a Trump bump--"Don't believe it!! They are outliers!!"

Atlas posters after two or three polls show a Trump fall--(Orgasmic moans)

Why are you so bothered that people don't like this man? LOL.

You like Trump. Most of us don't. cest la vive and what have you....

[Person Man]

WP: How big is the GOP’s Trump-can-shoot-a-guy-on-Fifth-Avenue caucus?

TL;DR: 12% to 20% of Americans.

In 1924, there were 290000000 voters and
 4 million of them were in the Klan. This figure also coincides with a literal interpretation of Hillary's "Basket of Deplorables" hot take.

[Person Man]

WP: How big is the GOP’s Trump-can-shoot-a-guy-on-Fifth-Avenue caucus?

TL;DR: 12% to 20% of Americans.

In 1924, there were 290000000 voters and
 4 million of them were in the Klan. This figure also coincides with a literal interpretation of Hillary's "Basket of Deplorables" hot take.

You've got an extra zero in there.  There were about 29 million votes in the 1924 election, not 290 million (the U.S. population was only a little over 100 million at that time).

29 million Americans, four million of whom were members of a totalitarian fascist clique? They would have voted for an American Hitler.

America was ahead of Germany at the time... in a race to genocide. The Klan had much the same hatreds as the Nazis, except for adding Catholics.

David Curtiss Stephenson, Grand Dragon of Indiana, once said "I am the law in Indiana".

Thank God for Robert Mueller!

The Klan was at least as bad as the Nazis...

[Person Man]

Florida, Quinnipiac, Aug. 30 - Sep. 3, 785 likely voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 51

And yet Gillum is leading by around that margin.

[Person Man]

Looks like he might be back in the 30s.

[Person Man]

Harry Enten's analysis of the relationship between Trump approval and the midterm elections: https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/05/politics/trump-approval-drop-midterms/index.html.

Good article, key quote:

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I would say the House is Likely D, if Trump is sub-40. Lean D if between 40 and 43, Tossup if between 44 and 46, and Lean R between 46 and 48 and Likely R past that.

[Person Man]

Trump has his worst approval rating from Rasmussen since mid-July. 44/54% -10

That is more or less where he was last Fall.

[Person Man]

Nah, Indiana went for Obama in his near-landslide win in 2008 with the positive effects of the larger Chicago area. With the entire region moving rightwards since then, I don't see Indiana being competitive for democrats in anything other than a true landslide.

Three possibilities:

1. Donald Trump is so awful that he can lose Indiana through his perception of corruption, despotic tendencies, and incompetence. That's one time or twice, with Republicans winning big in the state in 2022 as has been the norm in Indiana.

2. Rural dissent against Trump's tariffs and the likely trade wars that gut commodity prices, raise production costs of farming, and raise the overall cost of living? Tariffs are effectively sales taxes on imports, and they are bad taxes. This could be another way of looking at the first possibility. On the other side, most states cannot elect Republicans in statewide elections (and the vote for 'electors for the President" in almost all states is effectively a statewide election) without Republicans winning the farm-and-ranch vote. Indiana is as much in that category as Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Ohio... not to mention Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.   

3. Suburbanites around Indianapolis are following a pattern emerging around cities such as Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta of trending D out of concern for the anti-intellectual tendencies of the GOP that goes far beyond consternation against wayward college professors and creative people to people whose jobs depend upon formal education beyond K-12. In this group are such people as teachers, accountants, engineers, and medical professionals -- groups that usually must be careful about political statements or usually think politics irrelevant to their jobs.

This would be big trouble for the GOP if a persistent and irreversible trend.

#2 and #3 literally cannot happen at the same time.

Hey. It could. Republican support might soften and Democratic opposition might harden for different reasons.

[Person Man]

Nah, Indiana went for Obama in his near-landslide win in 2008 with the positive effects of the larger Chicago area. With the entire region moving rightwards since then, I don't see Indiana being competitive for democrats in anything other than a true landslide.

Three possibilities:

1. Donald Trump is so awful that he can lose Indiana through his perception of corruption, despotic tendencies, and incompetence. That's one time or twice, with Republicans winning big in the state in 2022 as has been the norm in Indiana.

2. Rural dissent against Trump's tariffs and the likely trade wars that gut commodity prices, raise production costs of farming, and raise the overall cost of living? Tariffs are effectively sales taxes on imports, and they are bad taxes. This could be another way of looking at the first possibility. On the other side, most states cannot elect Republicans in statewide elections (and the vote for 'electors for the President" in almost all states is effectively a statewide election) without Republicans winning the farm-and-ranch vote. Indiana is as much in that category as Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Ohio... not to mention Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.   

3. Suburbanites around Indianapolis are following a pattern emerging around cities such as Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta of trending D out of concern for the anti-intellectual tendencies of the GOP that goes far beyond consternation against wayward college professors and creative people to people whose jobs depend upon formal education beyond K-12. In this group are such people as teachers, accountants, engineers, and medical professionals -- groups that usually must be careful about political statements or usually think politics irrelevant to their jobs.

This would be big trouble for the GOP if a persistent and irreversible trend.

#2 and #3 literally cannot happen at the same time.

They can.  #2 isn't saying that Dems win rurals outright but rather improve on them.  So, let's say Hillary got 20% in a rural county in Indiana back in 2016.  Donnelly could win it by 30-40% in 2018 and the Dem Presidential nominee could win it by 30-33% in 2020.  Every bit helps.

That was Karl Rove strategy. If you improve by 5% over each constituency, even if you won 5% or 80% of it last time, if you improve by 5% amongst all these groups, you are doing 5% better. That was gap between Dole getting 43% and W getting 48%.

[Person Man]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, Aug. 30 - Sep. 5, 9709 adults including 8481 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

So fewer people having an opinion?

[Person Man]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, Aug. 30 - Sep. 5, 9709 adults including 8481 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

So fewer people having an opinion?

Just noise, I think.  This poll has been ridiculously stable for months.  It's stayed within a very narrow range since at least April.

What would be weird is if it is 45% who vote R in November and 45% who vote Trump in 2020.

[Person Man]

Georgia (UGA on behalf of AJC/WSB-TV):

If Democrats win here in November, I will rate it as Tossup for 2020 and Lean D if we go into recession.

[Person Man]

Tennessee: NBC/Marist, Aug. 25-28, 940 adults including 730 registered voters and 538 likely voters


Adults:

Approve 45
Disapprove 40

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 43

LV:

Approve 47
Disapprove 43

In a state he won by what? 30?

[Person Man]

Gallup:

40 Approve (-1)
54 Disapprove (+1)

https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx?g_source=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

I think that this is probably pretty close to the ground situation. Beyond His honeymoon, the approvals were in about a 7 point range between 36 and change and 43 and change. 40 means we have regressed to a baseline.

[Person Man]

The economy would have to sink for something like that, and I'd rather not have that happen.

The economy is horrible right now.

Why do you say this?

You can argue that the yawning deficits, the pickup in inflation, the trade wars, and the declining WPR and that no one is really getting any raises as evidence. I am of the opinion that by doing a pre-emptive stimulus, we have lengthened a business cycle for maybe another year (2020 tops) but that because we will have no slack, the next recession and the resulting recovery will take longer.

[Person Man]

The economy would have to sink for something like that, and I'd rather not have that happen.

The economy is horrible right now.

Why do you say this?

When was the last time you saw a "Help Wanted" sign or met anyone who made more than $1,200/month? Around here, it's been a long time.

There are Help Wanted signs everywhere in metro Atlanta.  Most places with lower paying jobs (and some better paying ones) can't keep enough staff.   So some of this is regional differences; I'm sorry that your region is still feeling the pinch.  I do agree that the factors you mentioned in the previous post are likely to crater the national economy within a few years; but at the moment, at least in some places it's doing OK.

Yeah. I still get unsolicited calls from recruiters even though I have been in my current job for almost 6 months. The pay here is like 15% lower than what I could get at some other places, but its really stable. Hopefully, I can get in to a good position to eventually find a job that pays competitively and is a good fit. I mean, I had jobs where I was clearly overpaid. Sometimes by like a quarter, but those jobs weren't a good fit and didn't last.

[Person Man]

This is typical. A few good polls and suddenly D's on Atlas starts celebrating the inevitable 2020 victory. Sure, there has been a discernible tick down in Trumps numbers over the last couple of weeks. But whatever might have caused it (McCain, Cohen, WH insider, Woodward, etc), there is no particular reason to believe that THIS was the final straw that broke Trump. If the past is any predictor of the future, Trump is likely to bounce back. As long as the economy is strong in 2020 (it may or may not be), Trump will be at least competitive.

If Atlas actually considered the way Trump's numbers tend to ebb and flow, they'd realize that this really isn't the best situation for Dems. If his approval ratings are dipping now, there's a good chance that they will be ticking back up by November. It appears that the generic ballot is starting to regress toward the mean already, having gone from D+9.5 to D+7.8 in the last week.

Don't worry, I'm sure we'll get at least two or three more cycles of polling ups and downs before the election, with the predictable "DEMS ARE DOOMED!" followed by "OMG, WE'RE GONNA WIN TEXAS!"

I can see Syria or Florence as a temporary means of appearing lucid by Trump. Those are the two up risks for him.

[Person Man]

A bunch of state polls from Fox News, all conducted Sep. 8-11.


Missouri

808 RV: Approve 49, Disapprove 48 (strongly approve 27, strongly disapprove 36)
675 LV: 49/48 (strongly 29/37)


Indiana

804 RV: 52/46 (strongly 26/34)
677 LV: 54/44 (strongly 30/34)


North Dakota

804 RV: 54/42 (strongly 33/33)
701 LV: 54/42 (strongly 35/34)


Tennessee

809 RV: 56/39 (strongly 30/30)
686 LV: 58/38 (strongly 31/30)


Arizona

801 RV: 48/49 (strongly 27/38)
710 LV: 49/49 (strongly 28/38)

I'm not sure what to make of these, but if that Missouri number is accurate-OUCH! Those probably made McCaskill smile.

To make her even happier, McCaskill's actually leading in this poll (41/39 RV, 44/41 LV).

Somewhat more Republican-leaning than most other polls (especially on Arizona). I'm going with registered voters because such is closer for Presidential (if not midterm) voters.

Dislike a poll? Then wait for one to replace it.

Kansas: PPP, Sep. 12-13, 618 voters

Approve 50
Disapprove 45

Awful when one considers that the state is Kansas

Rasmussen, Florida:

50-50.

It's Rasmussen.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

And the Democrats are doing well in the poll...

[Person Man]

I've said it before, and we'll say it again periodically in till the 2020 election. Trump's, or perhaps the Republican party's, gift is that he managed last time to get proximally 1 and 8 of his voters to support him despite disapproving of him, considering him to be the lesser of two evils.

So, basically the upcoming midterm and presidential election is a direct referendum on whether Democrats are electable beyond being just an occasional protest vote. Just face it. After they see the corruption, incompetence, and willful and open immorality of the current regime and still the voters see them as the less of two evils then you're unelectable.