Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

59% support the Mueller investigation

65% think Trump shouldn't pardon Manafort

47% think the Cohen-Manafort plea deals/Guilty verdict makes Mueller more credible, 27% say the opposite.

[LimoLiberal]

Curious that the generic ballot portions of the Washington Post and Suffolk/USA Today polls haven’t come out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looks like Republicans outnumber Democrats in this poll since both numbers are mirrored and his overall approval is higher than it is with Independents. Probably Trump is even (a little) further down and the ABC poll wasn't such an outlier.

No, the party distribution is D 38, R 30, I 32.  I misread the R approval number when writing the OP (I've corrected it); it's actually 81/15, not 85/15.  These numbers do add up correctly.  Note that even if the D and R numbers were exactly mirror images, it wouldn't make the topline number equal the I approval number; the I number would "move" the result away from 50-50 only by the relative weight of I's to the whole sample.

[pbrower2a]

WP: How big is the GOP’s Trump-can-shoot-a-guy-on-Fifth-Avenue caucus?

TL;DR: 12% to 20% of Americans.

In 1924, there were 290000000 voters and
 4 million of them were in the Klan. This figure also coincides with a literal interpretation of Hillary's "Basket of Deplorables" hot take.

You've got an extra zero in there.  There were about 29 million votes in the 1924 election, not 290 million (the U.S. population was only a little over 100 million at that time).

29 million Americans, four million of whom were members of a totalitarian fascist clique? They would have voted for an American Hitler.

America was ahead of Germany at the time... in a race to genocide. The Klan had much the same hatreds as the Nazis, except for adding Catholics.

David Curtiss Stephenson, Grand Dragon of Indiana, once said "I am the law in Indiana".

Thank God for Robert Mueller!

[Person Man]

WP: How big is the GOP’s Trump-can-shoot-a-guy-on-Fifth-Avenue caucus?

TL;DR: 12% to 20% of Americans.

In 1924, there were 290000000 voters and
 4 million of them were in the Klan. This figure also coincides with a literal interpretation of Hillary's "Basket of Deplorables" hot take.

You've got an extra zero in there.  There were about 29 million votes in the 1924 election, not 290 million (the U.S. population was only a little over 100 million at that time).

29 million Americans, four million of whom were members of a totalitarian fascist clique? They would have voted for an American Hitler.

America was ahead of Germany at the time... in a race to genocide. The Klan had much the same hatreds as the Nazis, except for adding Catholics.

David Curtiss Stephenson, Grand Dragon of Indiana, once said "I am the law in Indiana".

Thank God for Robert Mueller!

The Klan was at least as bad as the Nazis...

[Hindsight was 2020]

Emerson
Approval: 38
Disapproval: 53
https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-e-poll-voters-better-off-financially-country-worse-off-overall-under-trump-consider-third-party-option-2020#.W41E7hYpCEf

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson
Approval: 38
Disapproval: 53
https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-e-poll-voters-better-off-financially-country-worse-off-overall-under-trump-consider-third-party-option-2020#.W41E7hYpCEf

The previous Emerson national poll (July 6-7) was 43/50, so this movement is in line with other recent polls (WaPo/ABC, IBD/TIPP, PPP).

[KingSweden]

Emerson
Approval: 38
Disapproval: 53
https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-e-poll-voters-better-off-financially-country-worse-off-overall-under-trump-consider-third-party-option-2020#.W41E7hYpCEf

The previous Emerson national poll (July 6-7) was 43/50, so this movement is in line with other recent polls (WaPo/ABC, IBD/TIPP, PPP).

-7 to -15

[pbrower2a]

I insisted upon corroboration before accepting a 36-60 approval poll... and we have it, more or less.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Teh movementz is realz

[LimoLiberal]

Still waiting for the GCB polls from WaPo and Suffolk. However, I am inclined to believe the Blue Wave (at least in the House) is real right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

[LimoLiberal]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Interesting. Not what we have been seeing in other polls.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Interesting. Not what we have been seeing in other polls.

Huh? That is completely within MOE of the other polls

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Interesting. Not what we have been seeing in other polls.

Huh? That is completely within MOE of the other polls

I suspect he means the fact that it didn't move much, unlike the ones that have shown some sharp declines for Trump.

[KingSweden]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Interesting. Not what we have been seeing in other polls.

Huh? That is completely within MOE of the other polls

I suspect he means the fact that it didn't move much, unlike the ones that have shown some sharp declines for Trump.

Possibly a function of Gallup polling more frequently

[BudgieForce]

Gallup had some movement the week prior, so maybe they just saw it earlier than the other pollsters.

Edit: Exactly what KingSweden just said.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harris/Rasmussen, Aug. 26-31, 5000 registered voters (change from previous week)

Approve 46 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

GCB: D 42 (nc), R 35 (-1)

[BudgieForce]

I thought The Hill was using HarrisX as their exclusive pollster. Guess not.

[American2020]

Missouri

All adults
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 46%

Registered voters
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 46%
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/poll-high-profile-missouri-senate-race-locked-dead-heat-n906001?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

[pbrower2a]

Missouri

All adults
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 46%

Registered voters
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 46%
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/poll-high-profile-missouri-senate-race-locked-dead-heat-n906001?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

A subsequent poll  from Q has Trump approval at 47-51 in Florida.

I go with registered voters at this stage over 'adults' because registered voters have done something to show a willingness to vote. Missouri went 56-38 for Trump in 2016, so the state looks as if it will be in contest in 2020 as it was in 2008.  The closest state that I can think of to Missouri in its Presidential politics as an analogue is Georgia. Missouri has a large share of fundamentalist or evangelical Christians outside of the two giant urban areas (St. Louis and Kansas City), portions of which are in Missouri, that combine to be about as politically important in Missouri as Atlanta is in Georgia. To win the state, Trump must win the vast majority of the Undecided. With the large number of fundamentalist and evangelical Christians (President Trump's one reliable demographic of voters, as he might be unable to rely upon the farm and ranch vote), such is obviously possible. Note well: opinions on whether the tariffs will hurt or help the American economy are split in Missouri. St. Louis is a one of the best analogues... to Detroit.  

Missouri is far enough from the national average on the R side that it cannot determine whether Trump wins or loses a re-election bid. See also Indiana and Montana.

Focus on this poll is the Senate race involving Claire McCaskill D, inc), who is vulnerable. It is even, but the Democratic incumbent has an edge if third-Party alternatives are included.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: Gravis, Aug. 29-30, 1225 registered voters

Approve 48 (strongly 37)
Disapprove 50 (strongly 43)

[Brittain33]

Florida: Gravis, Aug. 29-30, 1225 registered voters

Approve 48 (strongly 37)
Disapprove 50 (strongly 43)

That is... wow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: Gravis, Aug. 29-30, 1225 registered voters

Approve 48 (strongly 37)
Disapprove 50 (strongly 43)

That is... wow.

Trump's approval has been surprisingly strong in Florida (relative to his national numbers) from a number of pollsters.  Anyone have a theory as to why this is so?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Trump's approval has been surprisingly strong in Florida (relative to his national numbers) from a number of pollsters.  Anyone have a theory as to why this is so?

Maybe it's because it's more suburban and thus more of a natural right-wing constituency. The poorer, more rural states where the GOP has gained in the past few years aren't really natural for the Republican Right.