Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

There was a CNN poll in December 2017 that had Democrats up in the GCB by 18-19 points. Trump had a big surge after the tax scam was signed. Before that his plutocratic base was enraged by the failure of health care reform and the fact that Trump had zero accomplishments. The tax scam gave him a boost among his 1% base.

[Comrade Funk]

There was a CNN poll in December 2017 that had Democrats up in the GCB by 18-19 points. Trump had a big surge after the tax scam was signed. Before that his plutocratic base was enraged by the failure of health care reform and the fact that Trump had zero accomplishments. The tax scam gave him a boost among his 1% base.

December was especially bad because of the Roy Moore debacle. Defending and endorsing a racist pedophile was a bad look...

[ON Progressive]

Maine (AARP Maine/only among 50+ year olds):

40% approval
53% disapproval

Very terrible numbers when you consider he only lost this state by a couple points, and this is a very Republican demographic.

https://www.pressherald.com/2018/09/05/survey-older-maine-voters-split-support-between-mills-moody-for-governor/

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Maine (AARP Maine/only among 50+ year olds):

40% approval
53% disapproval

Very terrible numbers when you consider he only lost this state by a couple points, and this is a very Republican demographic.

https://www.pressherald.com/2018/09/05/survey-older-maine-voters-split-support-between-mills-moody-for-governor/

Great numbers considering Maine has had a rightward shift with older, union/logging/WWC types dying off and being replaced by Boston/NYC white flight.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Indiana: NBC/Marist, Aug. 26-29, 955 adults including 816 registered voters and 576 likely voters

Adults:

Approve 44 (strongly 27)
Disapprove 47 (strongly 36)

RV:

Approve 46 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 47 (strongly 36)

LV:

Approve 48 (strongly 32)
Disapprove 46 (strongly 37)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona, PPP, Aug. 30-31, 554 voters

Approve 44
Disapprove 50

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Arizona. An internal poll for the Democratic nominee for Governor. Trump approval at 44-52 among adults, 47-52 among likely voters of the 2018 election. I'm going with voters of the 2018 election. It is less unflattering to the President than what I already have.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1037406434412113920%7Ctwgr%5E373939313b73706563696669635f73706f7274735f616374696f6e&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fuselectionatlas.org%2FFORUM%2Findex.php%3Ftopic%3D300754.0

(Link disappears)



Marist, Indiana. More important for now: Senator Joe Donnelly  has a 49-42 edge among likely voters in what was likely to be one of the shakiest holds for a Democratic incumbent, It probably is one of the shakiest holds for a Democratic Senator. The margin is 48-42 among registered voters. Republicans need look elsewhere for picking up a Senate seat if they need a pick up a seat to offset a loss in Arizona or Nevada.

Indiana: NBC/Marist, Aug. 26-29, 955 adults including 816 registered voters and 576 likely voters

Adults:

Approve 44 (strongly 27)
Disapprove 47 (strongly 36)

RV:

Approve 46 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 47 (strongly 36)

LV:

Approve 48 (strongly 32)

Indiana could easily be close in 2020 in the Presidential election even if Trump won the state by 20% in 2016. It probably straddles the 380th electoral vote for a Democrat. No Republican has won the Presidency while winning Indiana by less than 10% since 1908 (Taft), let alone when losing the state. If anyone thinks that Indiana can be a bare win for Trump in 2020, please explain how such is reasonably possible.  

Take a look at the spread between "strong approval" and "strong disapproval".  Such bodes great trouble for the President. I call Indiana a near tossup for 2020, edge for Trump only because of its electoral history. If the Hamilton County suburbs of Indianapolis start going D, then the GOP is itself in big trouble.  

Marist, Tennessee

Trump is barely treading water here, with approval at 47% and disapproval at 44%.

Focus is on a hot Senate race, in which the Democrat has an edge



https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-marist-poll-it-s-neck-neck-senate-race-tennessee-n907221

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[BlueSwan]

Nah, Indiana went for Obama in his near-landslide win in 2008 with the positive effects of the larger Chicago area. With the entire region moving rightwards since then, I don't see Indiana being competitive for democrats in anything other than a true landslide.

[Brittain33]

Maine (AARP Maine/only among 50+ year olds):

40% approval
53% disapproval

Very terrible numbers when you consider he only lost this state by a couple points, and this is a very Republican demographic.

https://www.pressherald.com/2018/09/05/survey-older-maine-voters-split-support-between-mills-moody-for-governor/

Great numbers considering Maine has had a rightward shift with older, union/logging/WWC types dying off and being replaced by Boston/NYC white flight.

Did you notice this poll is for age 50+?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Something on this page is causing it to be extra wide.  I think it's the long URL in reply 461.  pbrower2a, can you modify that?

[pbrower2a]

Nah, Indiana went for Obama in his near-landslide win in 2008 with the positive effects of the larger Chicago area. With the entire region moving rightwards since then, I don't see Indiana being competitive for democrats in anything other than a true landslide.

Three possibilities:

1. Donald Trump is so awful that he can lose Indiana through his perception of corruption, despotic tendencies, and incompetence. That's one time or twice, with Republicans winning big in the state in 2022 as has been the norm in Indiana.

2. Rural dissent against Trump's tariffs and the likely trade wars that gut commodity prices, raise production costs of farming, and raise the overall cost of living? Tariffs are effectively sales taxes on imports, and they are bad taxes. This could be another way of looking at the first possibility. On the other side, most states cannot elect Republicans in statewide elections (and the vote for 'electors for the President" in almost all states is effectively a statewide election) without Republicans winning the farm-and-ranch vote. Indiana is as much in that category as Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Ohio... not to mention Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.   

3. Suburbanites around Indianapolis are following a pattern emerging around cities such as Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta of trending D out of concern for the anti-intellectual tendencies of the GOP that goes far beyond consternation against wayward college professors and creative people to people whose jobs depend upon formal education beyond K-12. In this group are such people as teachers, accountants, engineers, and medical professionals -- groups that usually must be careful about political statements or usually think politics irrelevant to their jobs.

This would be big trouble for the GOP if a persistent and irreversible trend.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Nah, Indiana went for Obama in his near-landslide win in 2008 with the positive effects of the larger Chicago area. With the entire region moving rightwards since then, I don't see Indiana being competitive for democrats in anything other than a true landslide.

Three possibilities:

1. Donald Trump is so awful that he can lose Indiana through his perception of corruption, despotic tendencies, and incompetence. That's one time or twice, with Republicans winning big in the state in 2022 as has been the norm in Indiana.

2. Rural dissent against Trump's tariffs and the likely trade wars that gut commodity prices, raise production costs of farming, and raise the overall cost of living? Tariffs are effectively sales taxes on imports, and they are bad taxes. This could be another way of looking at the first possibility. On the other side, most states cannot elect Republicans in statewide elections (and the vote for 'electors for the President" in almost all states is effectively a statewide election) without Republicans winning the farm-and-ranch vote. Indiana is as much in that category as Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Ohio... not to mention Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.   

3. Suburbanites around Indianapolis are following a pattern emerging around cities such as Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta of trending D out of concern for the anti-intellectual tendencies of the GOP that goes far beyond consternation against wayward college professors and creative people to people whose jobs depend upon formal education beyond K-12. In this group are such people as teachers, accountants, engineers, and medical professionals -- groups that usually must be careful about political statements or usually think politics irrelevant to their jobs.

This would be big trouble for the GOP if a persistent and irreversible trend.

#2 and #3 literally cannot happen at the same time.

[Person Man]

Nah, Indiana went for Obama in his near-landslide win in 2008 with the positive effects of the larger Chicago area. With the entire region moving rightwards since then, I don't see Indiana being competitive for democrats in anything other than a true landslide.

Three possibilities:

1. Donald Trump is so awful that he can lose Indiana through his perception of corruption, despotic tendencies, and incompetence. That's one time or twice, with Republicans winning big in the state in 2022 as has been the norm in Indiana.

2. Rural dissent against Trump's tariffs and the likely trade wars that gut commodity prices, raise production costs of farming, and raise the overall cost of living? Tariffs are effectively sales taxes on imports, and they are bad taxes. This could be another way of looking at the first possibility. On the other side, most states cannot elect Republicans in statewide elections (and the vote for 'electors for the President" in almost all states is effectively a statewide election) without Republicans winning the farm-and-ranch vote. Indiana is as much in that category as Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Ohio... not to mention Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.   

3. Suburbanites around Indianapolis are following a pattern emerging around cities such as Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta of trending D out of concern for the anti-intellectual tendencies of the GOP that goes far beyond consternation against wayward college professors and creative people to people whose jobs depend upon formal education beyond K-12. In this group are such people as teachers, accountants, engineers, and medical professionals -- groups that usually must be careful about political statements or usually think politics irrelevant to their jobs.

This would be big trouble for the GOP if a persistent and irreversible trend.

#2 and #3 literally cannot happen at the same time.

Hey. It could. Republican support might soften and Democratic opposition might harden for different reasons.

[libertpaulian]

Nah, Indiana went for Obama in his near-landslide win in 2008 with the positive effects of the larger Chicago area. With the entire region moving rightwards since then, I don't see Indiana being competitive for democrats in anything other than a true landslide.

Three possibilities:

1. Donald Trump is so awful that he can lose Indiana through his perception of corruption, despotic tendencies, and incompetence. That's one time or twice, with Republicans winning big in the state in 2022 as has been the norm in Indiana.

2. Rural dissent against Trump's tariffs and the likely trade wars that gut commodity prices, raise production costs of farming, and raise the overall cost of living? Tariffs are effectively sales taxes on imports, and they are bad taxes. This could be another way of looking at the first possibility. On the other side, most states cannot elect Republicans in statewide elections (and the vote for 'electors for the President" in almost all states is effectively a statewide election) without Republicans winning the farm-and-ranch vote. Indiana is as much in that category as Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Ohio... not to mention Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.   

3. Suburbanites around Indianapolis are following a pattern emerging around cities such as Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta of trending D out of concern for the anti-intellectual tendencies of the GOP that goes far beyond consternation against wayward college professors and creative people to people whose jobs depend upon formal education beyond K-12. In this group are such people as teachers, accountants, engineers, and medical professionals -- groups that usually must be careful about political statements or usually think politics irrelevant to their jobs.

This would be big trouble for the GOP if a persistent and irreversible trend.

#2 and #3 literally cannot happen at the same time.

They can.  #2 isn't saying that Dems win rurals outright but rather improve on them.  So, let's say Hillary got 20% in a rural county in Indiana back in 2016.  Donnelly could win it by 30-40% in 2018 and the Dem Presidential nominee could win it by 30-33% in 2020.  Every bit helps.

[pbrower2a]

Nah, Indiana went for Obama in his near-landslide win in 2008 with the positive effects of the larger Chicago area. With the entire region moving rightwards since then, I don't see Indiana being competitive for democrats in anything other than a true landslide.

Three possibilities:

1. Donald Trump is so awful that he can lose Indiana through his perception of corruption, despotic tendencies, and incompetence. That's one time or twice, with Republicans winning big in the state in 2022 as has been the norm in Indiana.

2. Rural dissent against Trump's tariffs and the likely trade wars that gut commodity prices, raise production costs of farming, and raise the overall cost of living? Tariffs are effectively sales taxes on imports, and they are bad taxes. This could be another way of looking at the first possibility. On the other side, most states cannot elect Republicans in statewide elections (and the vote for 'electors for the President" in almost all states is effectively a statewide election) without Republicans winning the farm-and-ranch vote. Indiana is as much in that category as Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Ohio... not to mention Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.   

3. Suburbanites around Indianapolis are following a pattern emerging around cities such as Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta of trending D out of concern for the anti-intellectual tendencies of the GOP that goes far beyond consternation against wayward college professors and creative people to people whose jobs depend upon formal education beyond K-12. In this group are such people as teachers, accountants, engineers, and medical professionals -- groups that usually must be careful about political statements or usually think politics irrelevant to their jobs.

This would be big trouble for the GOP if a persistent and irreversible trend.

#2 and #3 literally cannot happen at the same time.

They could in combination to the effect that one alone at its greatest could be.

[Person Man]

Nah, Indiana went for Obama in his near-landslide win in 2008 with the positive effects of the larger Chicago area. With the entire region moving rightwards since then, I don't see Indiana being competitive for democrats in anything other than a true landslide.

Three possibilities:

1. Donald Trump is so awful that he can lose Indiana through his perception of corruption, despotic tendencies, and incompetence. That's one time or twice, with Republicans winning big in the state in 2022 as has been the norm in Indiana.

2. Rural dissent against Trump's tariffs and the likely trade wars that gut commodity prices, raise production costs of farming, and raise the overall cost of living? Tariffs are effectively sales taxes on imports, and they are bad taxes. This could be another way of looking at the first possibility. On the other side, most states cannot elect Republicans in statewide elections (and the vote for 'electors for the President" in almost all states is effectively a statewide election) without Republicans winning the farm-and-ranch vote. Indiana is as much in that category as Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Ohio... not to mention Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.   

3. Suburbanites around Indianapolis are following a pattern emerging around cities such as Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta of trending D out of concern for the anti-intellectual tendencies of the GOP that goes far beyond consternation against wayward college professors and creative people to people whose jobs depend upon formal education beyond K-12. In this group are such people as teachers, accountants, engineers, and medical professionals -- groups that usually must be careful about political statements or usually think politics irrelevant to their jobs.

This would be big trouble for the GOP if a persistent and irreversible trend.

#2 and #3 literally cannot happen at the same time.

They can.  #2 isn't saying that Dems win rurals outright but rather improve on them.  So, let's say Hillary got 20% in a rural county in Indiana back in 2016.  Donnelly could win it by 30-40% in 2018 and the Dem Presidential nominee could win it by 30-33% in 2020.  Every bit helps.

That was Karl Rove strategy. If you improve by 5% over each constituency, even if you won 5% or 80% of it last time, if you improve by 5% amongst all these groups, you are doing 5% better. That was gap between Dole getting 43% and W getting 48%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, Aug. 30 - Sep. 5, 9709 adults including 8481 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

[Person Man]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, Aug. 30 - Sep. 5, 9709 adults including 8481 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

So fewer people having an opinion?

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, Aug. 30 - Sep. 5, 9709 adults including 8481 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

So fewer people having an opinion?

Just noise, I think.  This poll has been ridiculously stable for months.  It's stayed within a very narrow range since at least April.

[Person Man]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, Aug. 30 - Sep. 5, 9709 adults including 8481 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

So fewer people having an opinion?

Just noise, I think.  This poll has been ridiculously stable for months.  It's stayed within a very narrow range since at least April.

What would be weird is if it is 45% who vote R in November and 45% who vote Trump in 2020.

[ON Progressive]

Georgia (UGA on behalf of AJC/WSB-TV):

[Person Man]

Georgia (UGA on behalf of AJC/WSB-TV):

If Democrats win here in November, I will rate it as Tossup for 2020 and Lean D if we go into recession.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tennessee: NBC/Marist, Aug. 25-28, 940 adults including 730 registered voters and 538 likely voters


Adults:

Approve 45
Disapprove 40

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 43

LV:

Approve 47
Disapprove 43

[Person Man]

Tennessee: NBC/Marist, Aug. 25-28, 940 adults including 730 registered voters and 538 likely voters


Adults:

Approve 45
Disapprove 40

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 43

LV:

Approve 47
Disapprove 43

In a state he won by what? 30?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tennessee: NBC/Marist, Aug. 25-28, 940 adults including 730 registered voters and 538 likely voters


Adults:

Approve 45
Disapprove 40

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 43

LV:

Approve 47
Disapprove 43

In a state he won by what? 30?

26 (61-35)