Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Dr. Arch]

GA is looking really ugly for Trump. I'd like to see some NC numbers alongside it.

[pbrower2a]

We haven't seen a poll of Georgia for a long time. This is not the first poll to suggest that approval for Donald Trump isn't so peachy in Georgia. (The pun is irresistible!) I've seen polls showing approval of Trump as low as 39% in Georgia, so this isn't all that new.

OK, tell me -- is Arizona or Georgia  the 'Virginia of 2008' in 2020?      



Speaking of Jimmy Carter -- should he live to Election Day, 2020, he might get to see someone lose as badly as he did in 1980. Polls for the President are beginning to look that bad.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[HisGrace]

Tennessee: NBC/Marist, Aug. 25-28, 940 adults including 730 registered voters and 538 likely voters


Adults:

Approve 45
Disapprove 40

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 43

LV:

Approve 47
Disapprove 43

That's bad. He's going to win Tennessee regardless, but if his numbers are that low there they can't be good in swing states.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hill.TV/HarrisX American Barometer (weekly), Aug. 31 - Sep. 1, 1000 registered voters

Approve 47 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 37 (+1)

To see crosstabs, scroll down to the bottom of the story.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: Gravis, Sep. 5-7, 882 likely voters

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

[pbrower2a]

Tennessee: NBC/Marist, Aug. 25-28, 940 adults including 730 registered voters and 538 likely voters


Adults:

Approve 45
Disapprove 40

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 43

LV:

Approve 47
Disapprove 43

That's bad. He's going to win Tennessee regardless, but if his numbers are that low there they can't be good in swing states.

In view of polls of Georgia and Missouri, this suggests that Trump support is getting shaky in the South.  I'm going with  "registered voters" because people already registered to vote are likely to vote in a Presidential election. 

Now for a real swing state for which we have few polls (Iowa)

Emerson, Iowa  Trump approval 37%, disapproval 53%

Approval of Trump tariffs: only 24%. Democrats might flip a House seat, and even Steve King (R, IA-04) is up by only 10% over his challenger with weak support on approval.

Source (podcast) https://www.emerson.edu/communication-studies/emerson-college-polling-society

Iowa is now close to Minnesota or Wisconsin in its polling results now, and this is horrible for a President who won the state by 9% in 2016. Trump can win without Iowam but at this point that seems not to matter.

Finally, a state newly entering the realm of swing states -- Arizona.

Arizona: Gravis, Sep. 5-7, 882 likely voters

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

 

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[pbrower2a]

States for which I would like to see a poll:

Alabama (oldest poll on my map)
Alaska (approval and not favorability)
Kentucky (I don't believe what I have)
Louisiana (I do not believe what I have)
Maine (all ages, and not only 50+)
North Carolina (aging poll)
South Carolina (I don't believe what I have).


 

[KingSweden]

Gallup:

40 Approve (-1)
54 Disapprove (+1)

https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx?g_source=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

[Person Man]

Gallup:

40 Approve (-1)
54 Disapprove (+1)

https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx?g_source=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

I think that this is probably pretty close to the ground situation. Beyond His honeymoon, the approvals were in about a 7 point range between 36 and change and 43 and change. 40 means we have regressed to a baseline.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

So when are his approvals going down into the 20s?

[Dr. Arch]

So when are his approvals going down into the 20s?

The economy would have to sink for something like that, and I'd rather not have that happen.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The economy would have to sink for something like that, and I'd rather not have that happen.

The economy is horrible right now.

[Dr. Arch]

The economy would have to sink for something like that, and I'd rather not have that happen.

The economy is horrible right now.

I mean, something 2008 levels bad.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The economy would have to sink for something like that, and I'd rather not have that happen.

The economy is horrible right now.

Why do you say this?

[Person Man]

The economy would have to sink for something like that, and I'd rather not have that happen.

The economy is horrible right now.

Why do you say this?

You can argue that the yawning deficits, the pickup in inflation, the trade wars, and the declining WPR and that no one is really getting any raises as evidence. I am of the opinion that by doing a pre-emptive stimulus, we have lengthened a business cycle for maybe another year (2020 tops) but that because we will have no slack, the next recession and the resulting recovery will take longer.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The economy would have to sink for something like that, and I'd rather not have that happen.

The economy is horrible right now.

Why do you say this?

When was the last time you saw a "Help Wanted" sign or met anyone who made more than $1,200/month? Around here, it's been a long time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The economy would have to sink for something like that, and I'd rather not have that happen.

The economy is horrible right now.

Why do you say this?

When was the last time you saw a "Help Wanted" sign or met anyone who made more than $1,200/month? Around here, it's been a long time.

There are Help Wanted signs everywhere in metro Atlanta.  Most places with lower paying jobs (and some better paying ones) can't keep enough staff.   So some of this is regional differences; I'm sorry that your region is still feeling the pinch.  I do agree that the factors you mentioned in the previous post are likely to crater the national economy within a few years; but at the moment, at least in some places it's doing OK.

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac:

38% Approve (-3)
54% Disapprove (+/-)

Last poll was from August 14.

Source

[DINGO Joe]

The economy would have to sink for something like that, and I'd rather not have that happen.

The economy is horrible right now.

Why do you say this?

When was the last time you saw a "Help Wanted" sign or met anyone who made more than $1,200/month? Around here, it's been a long time.

What, coal jobs in Kentucky have quadrupled, Trump made it great again, your just not paying attention.

http://energy.ky.gov/Coal%20Facts%20Library/Kentucky%20Quarterly%20Coal%20Report%20(Q2-2018).pdf

Of course, Georgia Moderate is right too. 

[Yank2133]

Quinnipiac:

38% Approve (-3)
54% Disapprove (+/-)

Last poll was from August 14.

Source

Those Washington Post numbers were not an aberration.

[pbrower2a]

So when are his approvals going down into the 20s?

1. He starts an unjustifiable war, and American soldiers start returning in body bags. He is callow enough.

2, The economy implodes.

3. He is connected to murder, bribery, or embezzlement.

All three are too horrible to want. It's just as well that approvals stagnate here, probably on the stupid things that he says or on the tariffs... or just overall corruption.  

54% disapproval means that he will have a tough tome getting 46% of the popular vote. Sure, Reagan came back from such support, but he took some risks to put an end to stagflation that Carter would have never taken.  Obama never got close.

Do you see Trump as effective a campaigner as Reagan or Obama? I certainly don't. But I see Obama as a liberal version of Reagan, which is about as effective as Reagan.  Obama got 51% of the popular vote in 2012 and might have gotten more had right-wing media and GOP fronts not have put up well-funded and well-organized campaigns  against him. Obama was good enough to win despite that and despite a recovery only in progress.

Is Trump that good? Is a Yugo an automotive classic?

[Adam Griffin]

Time for a correction, guys:

[Person Man]

The economy would have to sink for something like that, and I'd rather not have that happen.

The economy is horrible right now.

Why do you say this?

When was the last time you saw a "Help Wanted" sign or met anyone who made more than $1,200/month? Around here, it's been a long time.

There are Help Wanted signs everywhere in metro Atlanta.  Most places with lower paying jobs (and some better paying ones) can't keep enough staff.   So some of this is regional differences; I'm sorry that your region is still feeling the pinch.  I do agree that the factors you mentioned in the previous post are likely to crater the national economy within a few years; but at the moment, at least in some places it's doing OK.

Yeah. I still get unsolicited calls from recruiters even though I have been in my current job for almost 6 months. The pay here is like 15% lower than what I could get at some other places, but its really stable. Hopefully, I can get in to a good position to eventually find a job that pays competitively and is a good fit. I mean, I had jobs where I was clearly overpaid. Sometimes by like a quarter, but those jobs weren't a good fit and didn't last.

[BudgieForce]

Time for a correction, guys:

To be more precise, time for HarrisX and Rasmussen.

[ltomlinson31]

CNN:
Approval: 36% (-6)
Disapproval: 58% (+5)

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/09/10/politics/cnn-poll-trump-approval-independents/index.html?__twitter_impression=true