Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[pbrower2a]

Trump's approval has been surprisingly strong in Florida (relative to his national numbers) from a number of pollsters.  Anyone have a theory as to why this is so?

Maybe it's because it's more suburban and thus more of a natural right-wing constituency. The poorer, more rural states where the GOP has gained in the past few years aren't really natural for the Republican Right.

Florida simply has a high floor for Republicans and a low ceiling for Democrats, That's how it has been for a very long time. In 1964, in the LBJ blowout, Florida barely went for LBJ. Yes, the demographics are different from what they were in the 1960s, but Florida attracts lots of elderly people. The elderly tend to be conservative because the poor, who tend not to be conservatives, are less likely to reach old age than the middle class or the rich.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida, Quinnipiac, Aug. 30 - Sep. 3, 785 likely voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 51

[President Johnson]

Why is he doing so well in Florida? Even better than most battlegrounds in the Rust Belt.

[Person Man]

Florida, Quinnipiac, Aug. 30 - Sep. 3, 785 likely voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 51

And yet Gillum is leading by around that margin.

[ON Progressive]

Why is he doing so well in Florida? Even better than most battlegrounds in the Rust Belt.

My guess is old white retirees are helping him there.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico bucks the trend: Aug. 28-31, 1964 RV

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/180842_crosstabs_Politico_v1_.pdf

Approve 46 (+5)
Disapprove 50 (-4)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-4)

GCB: D 42 (-2), R 40 (+4)

[BudgieForce]

Morning Consult/Politico bucks the trend: Aug. 28-31, 1964 RV

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/180842_crosstabs_Politico_v1_.pdf

Approve 46 (+5)
Disapprove 50 (-4)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-4)

GCB: D 42 (-2), R 40 (+4)

I have lost all faith in online trackers. This is why.

[GeorgiaModerate]

On the other hand...

Ipsos/Reuters, Aug. 22-28, 3380 adults

Approve 37 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Morning Consult/Politico bucks the trend: Aug. 28-31, 1964 RV

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/180842_crosstabs_Politico_v1_.pdf

Approve 46 (+5)
Disapprove 50 (-4)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-4)

GCB: D 42 (-2), R 40 (+4)

I have lost all faith in online trackers. This is why.

[BudgieForce]

On the other hand...

Ipsos/Reuters, Aug. 22-28, 3380 adults

Approve 37 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

I have regained all faith in online trackers. This is why. /s

Seriously though, I think they're a useful tool but I'd rather just use them as a supplement when we have a drought of live caller polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looking at the crosstabs for the recent Morning Consult polls, this probably explains at least part of their jump in Trump approval:

Party ID -

This week: D 36, R 33, I 31
Last week: D 36, R 32, I 33
2 weeks ago: D 37, R 30, I 33

Ideology -

This week: Liberal 30, Moderate 22, Conservative 38
Last week: Liberal 33, Moderate 22, Conservative 34
2 weeks ago: Liberal 35, Moderate 23, Conservative 33

So it looks like their samples have been trending more Republican/conservative the past couple of weeks.  (And yes, I know that party ID & ideology are not fixed attributes.  I'm not trying to unskew these polls, just looking for something that might explain their movement this week.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, Aug. 23-28, 1201 adults (change from July)

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 59 (+4)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+3)

[Person Man]

Looks like he might be back in the 30s.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harry Enten's analysis of the relationship between Trump approval and the midterm elections: https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/05/politics/trump-approval-drop-midterms/index.html.

Good article, key quote:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Brittain33]

Harry Enten's analysis of the relationship between Trump approval and the midterm elections: https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/05/politics/trump-approval-drop-midterms/index.html.

Is anyone else weirded out seeing a picture of him that isn't a fluffy dog?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harry Enten's analysis of the relationship between Trump approval and the midterm elections: https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/05/politics/trump-approval-drop-midterms/index.html.

Is anyone else weirded out seeing a picture of him that isn't a fluffy dog?

Maybe CNN just made him get a haircut and shave.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Grinnell College/Selzer & Co., Aug. 29 - Sep. 2, 1002 adults including 779 likely voters

Among adults:

Approve 39
Disapprove 50

Among LV:

Approve 43
Disapprove 50

LV's were also asked whether they would vote to reelect Trump:

Definitely vote to reelect Trump: 36
Consider someone else: 17
Definitely vote to elect someone else: 43

GCB (LV only): D 43, R 41

[BudgieForce]

As I mentioned in the other thread, "probably" going to vote gets cycled out. Seems a bit strict.

[KingSweden]

Grinnell College/Selzer & Co., Aug. 29 - Sep. 2, 1002 adults including 779 likely voters

Among adults:

Approve 39
Disapprove 50

Among LV:

Approve 43
Disapprove 50

LV's were also asked whether they would vote to reelect Trump:

Definitely vote to reelect Trump: 36
Consider someone else: 17
Definitely vote to elect someone else: 43

GCB (LV only): D 43, R 41

Why isn’t Srlzer polling the Iowa races? Hrrrgghh

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Sep. 2-4, 1500 adults including 1249 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 53 (+5)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+4)

Among RV:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 45 (nc), R 40 (+1)

[pbrower2a]

For polls showing the President's disapproval in the high 30s  and only the low forties in the last week or so, it would seem that the great majority recognize the seriousness of the Mueller probe after the Manafort conviction and the plea bargain of the President's former personal lawyer. What is amazing is polls showing disapproval ranging from 50 (which is very bad) to 60.

It is practically impossible to win re-election with a disapproval number over 50. Sure, the President
At 60? How many 9's in the probability against winning are there?

Grinnell College/Selzer & Co., Aug. 29 - Sep. 2, 1002 adults including 779 likely voters

Among adults:

Approve 39
Disapprove 50

Among LV:

Approve 43
Disapprove 50

LV's were also asked whether they would vote to reelect Trump:

Definitely vote to reelect Trump: 36
Consider someone else: 17
Definitely vote to elect someone else: 43

GCB (LV only): D 43, R 41

Sure, it is two years and two months from the 2020 Presidential election, and Trump devotees will give us such bromides as

(1) the only poll that counts is the election itself
(2) the Democrats could nominate a real turkey of an opponent
(3) two years is enough time in which to get things right
(4) the polls are unreliable outliers
(5) It's the economy, stupid!

The first is a commonplace saying among electoral losers. I've heard plenty of politicians asserting two weeks before the election that although behind 10%, saying that they can win. Polls will differ, and at times the one that one chooses to believe is the one that fits your agenda.

Trump is in trouble for reasons other than polling, and this shows in the polls.

The second? The Democrats have their quarterback controversy, but there is no huge ideological split among Democrats. To them, the personality of Donald Trump will matter far more than the comparatively minor ideological differences between them.

This will be settled, and the media will eliminate any Democrat with skeletons in his closet.

The third? Trump should be getting things right, at the least for the center-right part of the political spectrum. Ronald Reagan did that very well in 1984. Donald Trump has scandals of corruption and abuse of power, his foreign policy violates norms from Reagan to Obama by getting cozy with dictatorial regimes hostile to liberal democracy at the expense of liberal democracies.

The fourth? I stated the need for  corroboration of a 36-60 poll soon after the Manafort conviction and the  plea deal of Michael Cohen. Outliers happen, but seven or eight suggest real change in the situation.

Finally, the Trump economy is the result of the Obama recovery. Employers have been slow to hire and especially slow to raise wages, but that is over. The problem? His tariffs could make a mess of that by raising the cost of living for all, causing commodity prices to plummet, and raising the cost of doing business.  A tariff is effectively a sales tax on imports, so just ask yourself when you last bought a television, cell phone, stereo equipment, bone china, or clothing made in America. Those all get more expensive.  The increase in your car insurance alone will more than offset the tax cut that the GOP gave you.

Democrats could offer to get a small tax increase to offset the revenue from the tariffs that they will abandon.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No Senate race. Neighboring Minnesota and Wisconsin have senate races.

An Iowa poll would be interesting. Selzer is an excellent pollster.
 

[KingSweden]

Still - Iowa has a governor’s election and two competitive House races

[Person Man]

Harry Enten's analysis of the relationship between Trump approval and the midterm elections: https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/05/politics/trump-approval-drop-midterms/index.html.

Good article, key quote:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I would say the House is Likely D, if Trump is sub-40. Lean D if between 40 and 43, Tossup if between 44 and 46, and Lean R between 46 and 48 and Likely R past that.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump has his worst approval rating from Rasmussen since mid-July. 44/54% -10

[Person Man]

Trump has his worst approval rating from Rasmussen since mid-July. 44/54% -10

That is more or less where he was last Fall.