Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS/YouGov, Sep. 10-14:

Missouri (1104 registered voters):

Approve 50 (strongly 25)
Disapprove 50 (strongly 36)

McCaskill (D, inc) 47 45, Hawley (R) 45

Montana (543 registered voters):

Approve 53 (strongly 34)
Disapprove 47 (strongly 35)

Tester (D, inc) 45 47, Rosendale (R) 45

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think the Senate numbers in Missouri and Montana are switched around in that post.

Then again, both are from CBS a/k/a the Sexual Harassment Network, so they probably overstate support for the Party of Sexual Harassment.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think the Senate numbers in Missouri and Montana are switched around in that post.

Then again, both are from CBS a/k/a the Sexual Harassment Network, so they probably overstate support for the Party of Sexual Harassment.

Thanks for catching that.  I've corrected the OP.

Regarding the snarky comment, the poll was conducted by YouGov.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nevada: Gravis, Sep. 11-12, 700 likely voters

Approve 46 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 50 (strongly 43)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: CNN/SSRS, Sep. 11-15, 1001 adults including 864 registered voters and 761 likely voters

Adults:

Approve 35
Disapprove 54


RV:

Approve 38
Disapprove 55

Sinema 48, McSally 41


LV:

Approve 39
Disapprove 57

Sinema 50, McSally 43

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tennessee: CNN/SSRS, Sep. 11-15, 1000 adults including 852 registered voters and 723 likely voters

Adults:

Approve 46
Disapprove 46


RV:

Approve 48
Disapprove 47

Bredesen 50, Blackburn 42


LV:

Approve 49
Disapprove 48

Bredesen 50, Blackburn 45

[Dr. Arch]

Trump is at -18(!!) in AZ with likely voters??

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump is at -18(!!) in AZ with likely voters??

If there's any state where Trump's response to McCain's death would really hurt him, it's AZ.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

This is Trump's worst result in this poll since April 22 (38/57).

[pbrower2a]

Dislike a poll? Then wait for one to replace it. These two polls suggest that the President will need to clean up his act beginning in January.

Arizona: CNN/SSRS, Sep. 11-15, 1001 adults including 864 registered voters and 761 likely voters

Adults:

Approve 35
Disapprove 54


RV:

Approve 38
Disapprove 55

Sinema 48, McSally 41


LV:

Approve 39
Disapprove 57

Sinema 50, McSally 43

Tennessee: CNN/SSRS, Sep. 11-15, 1000 adults including 852 registered voters and 723 likely voters

Adults:

Approve 46
Disapprove 46


RV:

Approve 48
Disapprove 47

Bredesen 50, Blackburn 42


LV:

Approve 49
Disapprove 48

Bredesen 50, Blackburn 45

Registered voters for the Presidential approval, and I would go with likely voters for the Senate races.

National poll:

Gallup weekly:

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

This is Trump's worst result in this poll since April 22 (38/57).

Ouch, if you are a fan of our President.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  



[/quote]

[Brittain33]

Gravis for Nevada and CNN for Arizona are a great example of why you can't compare polls across different pollsters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gravis for Nevada and CNN for Arizona are a great example of why you can't compare polls across different pollsters.

In particular, Gravis reported only likely voters, and we don't know what their likely voter screen is or how it affected the numbers.  CNN reported their numbers 3 ways (all adults, registered voters, and likely voters).  This kind of transparency lends more credibility to a pollster's results.

[pbrower2a]

Gravis for Nevada and CNN for Arizona are a great example of why you can't compare polls across different pollsters.

In particular, Gravis reported only likely voters, and we don't know what their likely voter screen is or how it affected the numbers.  CNN reported their numbers 3 ways (all adults, registered voters, and likely voters).  This kind of transparency lends more credibility to a pollster's results.

Indeed, I am going with likely voters for 2018. as we are about a month and a half from the election, and registered voters for 2020 because people who register to vote now are likely to vote in 2020.

[Brittain33]

Gravis for Nevada and CNN for Arizona are a great example of why you can't compare polls across different pollsters.

In particular, Gravis reported only likely voters, and we don't know what their likely voter screen is or how it affected the numbers.  CNN reported their numbers 3 ways (all adults, registered voters, and likely voters).  This kind of transparency lends more credibility to a pollster's results.

Indeed, I am going with likely voters for 2018. as we are about a month and a half from the election, and registered voters for 2020 because people who register to vote now are likely to vote in 2020.

Yes, but if their LV screen is "did you vote in 2014" that has all kinds of problems...

[pbrower2a]

Gravis for Nevada and CNN for Arizona are a great example of why you can't compare polls across different pollsters.

In particular, Gravis reported only likely voters, and we don't know what their likely voter screen is or how it affected the numbers.  CNN reported their numbers 3 ways (all adults, registered voters, and likely voters).  This kind of transparency lends more credibility to a pollster's results.

Indeed, I am going with likely voters for 2018. as we are about a month and a half from the election, and registered voters for 2020 because people who register to vote now are likely to vote in 2020.

Yes, but if their LV screen is "did you vote in 2014" that has all kinds of problems...

A 'likely voter' screen with that question would have Debbis Stabenow in trouble. Such a screen also leaves out any voter under 22, and there are people in the 18-21 age group who look at voting as a right of passage just short in importance of getting a driver's license.

   

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1041903646164647936

[pbrower2a]

Dislike a poll? Then wait for one to replace it. These two polls suggest that the President will need to clean up his act beginning in January.

Arizona: CNN/SSRS, Sep. 11-15, 1001 adults including 864 registered voters and 761 likely voters

Adults:

Approve 35
Disapprove 54


RV:

Approve 38
Disapprove 55

Sinema 48, McSally 41


LV:

Approve 39
Disapprove 57

Sinema 50, McSally 43

Tennessee: CNN/SSRS, Sep. 11-15, 1000 adults including 852 registered voters and 723 likely voters

Adults:

Approve 46
Disapprove 46


RV:

Approve 48
Disapprove 47

Bredesen 50, Blackburn 42


LV:

Approve 49
Disapprove 48

Bredesen 50, Blackburn 45

Registered voters for the Presidential approval, and I would go with likely voters for the Senate races.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1041903646164647936

National poll:

Gallup weekly:

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

This is Trump's worst result in this poll since April 22 (38/57).

Ouch, if you are a fan of our President.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ohio: Baldwin Wallace, Sep. 5-15, 1048 likely voters

Approve 43
Disapprove 52

Quite a gender gap: M 47/48, F 39/55

Other results: Brown +17, DeWine +5, GCB D+3 (43/40)

[Badger]

I've said it before, and we'll say it again periodically in till the 2020 election. Trump's, or perhaps the Republican party's, gift is that he managed last time to get proximally 1 and 8 of his voters to support him despite disapproving of him, considering him to be the lesser of two evils.

[Person Man]

I've said it before, and we'll say it again periodically in till the 2020 election. Trump's, or perhaps the Republican party's, gift is that he managed last time to get proximally 1 and 8 of his voters to support him despite disapproving of him, considering him to be the lesser of two evils.

So, basically the upcoming midterm and presidential election is a direct referendum on whether Democrats are electable beyond being just an occasional protest vote. Just face it. After they see the corruption, incompetence, and willful and open immorality of the current regime and still the voters see them as the less of two evils then you're unelectable.

[pbrower2a]

I've said it before, and we'll say it again periodically in till the 2020 election. Trump's, or perhaps the Republican party's, gift is that he managed last time to get proximally 1 and 8 of his voters to support him despite disapproving of him, considering him to be the lesser of two evils.

Trump wins again if he can convince those who had misgivings about him that those misgivings have proved themselves without foundation.  Think of Ronald Reagan between 1980 and 1984: he gained about as much in the total vote as the Anderson vote of 1980, most of the Anderson voters being unwilling to vote for Carter but having severe misgivings about Reagan. Reagan did not start a war with the Soviet Union, did not so cut welfare that one started to see people starving on the street, and did not destroy labor unions., then just look at what that does to his vote share in 2020.

Losing practically all such voters (the trusty calculator suggests that such is an over-precise 5.74% of the vote) drops his vote share in the 2020 election itself cuts his vote share to just over 40%, which is about what Hoover got in 1932




 and Carter got in 1980.



Due to interstate polarization of the vote, such might keep the result in the electoral college from being quite so stark. But don't be so sure. Trump's losses in individual states could be proportionally higher in states that he won, and more so in those states that he won by large totals, than in those that he lost (especially 'bigly'). 

If only half of such voters decide that voting for him is not so bad, then the over-precise calculator has him losing 2.87% of the vote that he got in 2016, most likely about evenly. That is enough to cause him to lose Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and as far as I can figure, the Second Congressional District of Nebraska.   That sticks him with only 230 electoral votes, and that is before I even contemplate what can happen to his vote in Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio which are outside of that range but already suggest a Trump loss in at least three of those states.

3/4 of such votes? He loses North Carolina just on an even shift, putting him at 215 electoral votes. But this is before I look at demographic changes or groups of voters drifting D... and don;t forget: states in which more people voted for him despite misgivings, and people who had no misgivings but have them now.

Yeah, sure, Obama once had a 51% disapproval on Quinnipiac in 2010 and eventually won the state... if barely. But remember that Obama is an unusually-effective campaigner, he defeated one of the strongest challengers ever against an incumbent President who wasn't downright awful (I an satisfied that Mitt Romney would have crushed Hillary Clinton had he been the Republican nominee). Note that that 51% disapproval was his his only one in Ohio, and he did not win any other state in which his disapproval got above 50% at any time.

"He can't be that bad" has morphed into "he is every bit as awful as I thought" or even "he is even worse!" for a large part of the electorate. That is not winning politics for a re-election campaign.     

Donald Trump has been everything that his detractors saw in him in 2016... but probably did not see the  tariffs or the unconventional foreign policy. To be sure, Reagan's foreign policy changed when Gorbachev offered a 'kinder and gentler' Soviet Union, but that was a better situation worth cultivating.  We have a President who has gotten cozy with dictators and has gotten chilly toward our democratic allies. If one in eight voters for him had misgivings about him in 2016, imagine how many people who had no serious misgivings about him in 2016 now do.

Now where is the upside? I may lack the imagination and may be too partisan to see it.
 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Ohio: Baldwin Wallace, Sep. 5-15, 1048 likely voters

Approve 43
Disapprove 52

Quite a gender gap: M 47/48, F 39/55

Other results: Brown +17, DeWine +5, GCB D+3 (43/40)

DJT losing having a net negative with Ohio men? I somehow don't buy this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas: Quinnipiac, Sep. 11-17, 807 likely voters

Approve 49
Disapprove 49

Senate race: Cruz 54, O'Rourke 45

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin - Marquette:

Approve 42% (-3)
Disapprove 54% (+3)

https://twitter.com/mulawpoll/status/1042112992551292928?s=21

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wisconsin - Marquette:

Approve 42% (-3)
Disapprove 54% (-3)

https://twitter.com/mulawpoll/status/1042112992551292928?s=21

Nitpick: disapprove should say "(+3)".  Consistent with the other results in this poll.