Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[pbrower2a]

What part of "I will definitely not vote for him" can be interpreted as "but I will vote for him in 2020"?

Easy to overinterpret.

a) These people might stay at home.
b) These people might end up hating the democratic candidate even more.
c) These people might vote third party or write-in a candidate.
d) Voter suppression.
e) Last minute partisan come-together.
f) A LOT of people actually said they would never vote for Trump in 2016, but still ended up doing so.

I'm not saying that Trump is winning. He really shouldn't be winning with numbers like these, especially not if the democratic candidate is someone electable. But complacency/overconfidence remains the democrats worst enemy. In 2016, democrats on this forum and elsewhere were all too happy to proclaim the race all over after Khan/McCain/Kovaleski/Kelly/Pussygate. That complacency alone cost us the election (hell, Comey probably wouldn't have sent the letter had he not been confident in Hillary winning). It shouldn't happen again.

a) which explains the need for get-out-the vote drives for all politicians. Voter participation, which had been unusually high in 2008 and only slightly less so in 2012, was unusually low in 2016.

b) the large number of potential of Democratic nominees is scary. It is usually easy to sort through the best, with the early front-runner getting caught in some personal sleaze and the Party coming to a quick and inept consensus. The biggest hazard to a challenger is someone who siphons votes from his own side of the political spectrum.

c) Democrats thought that votes for Gary Johnson and Evan McMullen would hurt Donald Trump even more. Trump was careful to avoid talking about the environment (at which he is an unmitigated disaster), privatization of the public sector (he spoke of infrastructure, which promised jobs, but really meant more layers of profit in everything anyone uses -- like high tolls on what are now free highways), tax cuts (although he ignored admitting that he would use tariffs essentially as sales taxes on many imports). Then there was dog-whistle bigotry. Trump is a rogue, but for many who voted for him he would be 'their' rogue.

d) It is tempting to shady pols, but it might not be effective this time. We can watch the midterm elections to see where Republicans lose any possible advantage from administering the elections.

e) I expect Republicans to get scared and decide that this is the last time for them to have any chance to replace the federal income tax with regressive sales taxes, eviscerate unions, privatize public assets to monopolistic profiteers, get Supreme Court justices who will outlaw abortion and even contraception and find ways to limit homosexual rights or even making voting contingent on tax-paying, income, or not collecting relief ... I see some of these Republicans scared of an FDR. 

I look at the polls and I almost see a first-term President losing as badly as Carter or Hoover. Trump is not Carter, who is not Hoover. I recognize a natural floor of 40% of the popular vote for even the most troubled incumbent.

Seeing Democrats vilify the personality of 'their' President could cause right-leaning people to 'circle the wagons'.
 
f) The big problem may be that as in 2016, Trump so sullies the political process that people decide that voting is not worth it.   

[Inmate Trump]

5. He can cheat. That might be more effective than anything else. Unlike the other three, it is consistent with his character.

And it already worked for him once.  The reason he's so friendly with Putin is that he knows Putin helped him win.

[The Mikado]

What part of "I will definitely not vote for him" can be interpreted as "but I will vote for him in 2020"?

Easy to overinterpret.

a) These people might stay at home.
b) These people might end up hating the democratic candidate even more.
c) These people might vote third party or write-in a candidate.
d) Voter suppression.
e) Last minute partisan come-together.
f) A LOT of people actually said they would never vote for Trump in 2016, but still ended up doing so.

I'm not saying that Trump is winning. He really shouldn't be winning with numbers like these, especially not if the democratic candidate is someone electable. But complacency/overconfidence remains the democrats worst enemy. In 2016, democrats on this forum and elsewhere were all too happy to proclaim the race all over after Khan/McCain/Kovaleski/Kelly/Pussygate. That complacency alone cost us the election (hell, Comey probably wouldn't have sent the letter had he not been confident in Hillary winning). It shouldn't happen again.

a) which explains the need for get-out-the vote drives for all politicians. Voter participation, which had been unusually high in 2008 and only slightly less so in 2012, was unusually low in 2016.

b) the large number of potential of Democratic nominees is scary. It is usually easy to sort through the best, with the early front-runner getting caught in some personal sleaze and the Party coming to a quick and inept consensus. The biggest hazard to a challenger is someone who siphons votes from his own side of the political spectrum.

c) Democrats thought that votes for Gary Johnson and Evan McMullen would hurt Donald Trump even more. Trump was careful to avoid talking about the environment (at which he is an unmitigated disaster), privatization of the public sector (he spoke of infrastructure, which promised jobs, but really meant more layers of profit in everything anyone uses -- like high tolls on what are now free highways), tax cuts (although he ignored admitting that he would use tariffs essentially as sales taxes on many imports). Then there was dog-whistle bigotry. Trump is a rogue, but for many who voted for him he would be 'their' rogue.

d) It is tempting to shady pols, but it might not be effective this time. We can watch the midterm elections to see where Republicans lose any possible advantage from administering the elections.

e) I expect Republicans to get scared and decide that this is the last time for them to have any chance to replace the federal income tax with regressive sales taxes, eviscerate unions, privatize public assets to monopolistic profiteers, get Supreme Court justices who will outlaw abortion and even contraception and find ways to limit homosexual rights or even making voting contingent on tax-paying, income, or not collecting relief ... I see some of these Republicans scared of an FDR. 

I look at the polls and I almost see a first-term President losing as badly as Carter or Hoover. Trump is not Carter, who is not Hoover. I recognize a natural floor of 40% of the popular vote for even the most troubled incumbent.

Seeing Democrats vilify the personality of 'their' President could cause right-leaning people to 'circle the wagons'.
 
f) The big problem may be that as in 2016, Trump so sullies the political process that people decide that voting is not worth it.   

Voter turnout, as a % of Voting Eligible Population, was up from 2012 to 2016, though. (58% in 2012, 59% in 2016)

[LimoLiberal]

Wow.

Gallup

Approve - 42 (+3)
Disapprove - 52 (-4)

[BudgieForce]

Thats within normal Gallup range.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 42 (+3)
Disapprove 52 (-4)

[Gass3268]

Wow

Approve 43%
Disapprove 50% (+4)

Monmouth

[Virginiá]

Trump surging, #RedWave, etc etc

[BudgieForce]

Wow

Approve 43%
Disapprove 50% (-4)

Monmouth

You mean +4.

[Brittain33]

I guess it took Omarosa to revive the "lesser of two evils" dynamic that helped Trump win in 2016.

[KingSweden]

Remarkable how static the numbers stay

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow

Approve 43%
Disapprove 50% (+4)

Monmouth

This is a rare poll where Trump is doing worse among RV than among all adults (43/50 vs 43/51); the reverse is usually true.  In the previous Monmouth poll, he was 43/46 among adults and 45/46 among RV.

[The Mikado]

What part of "I will definitely not vote for him" can be interpreted as "but I will vote for him in 2020"?

Easy to overinterpret.

a) These people might stay at home.
b) These people might end up hating the democratic candidate even more.
c) These people might vote third party or write-in a candidate.
d) Voter suppression.
e) Last minute partisan come-together.
f) A LOT of people actually said they would never vote for Trump in 2016, but still ended up doing so.

I'm not saying that Trump is winning. He really shouldn't be winning with numbers like these, especially not if the democratic candidate is someone electable. But complacency/overconfidence remains the democrats worst enemy. In 2016, democrats on this forum and elsewhere were all too happy to proclaim the race all over after Khan/McCain/Kovaleski/Kelly/Pussygate. That complacency alone cost us the election (hell, Comey probably wouldn't have sent the letter had he not been confident in Hillary winning). It shouldn't happen again.

a) which explains the need for get-out-the vote drives for all politicians. Voter participation, which had been unusually high in 2008 and only slightly less so in 2012, was unusually low in 2016.

b) the large number of potential of Democratic nominees is scary. It is usually easy to sort through the best, with the early front-runner getting caught in some personal sleaze and the Party coming to a quick and inept consensus. The biggest hazard to a challenger is someone who siphons votes from his own side of the political spectrum.

c) Democrats thought that votes for Gary Johnson and Evan McMullen would hurt Donald Trump even more. Trump was careful to avoid talking about the environment (at which he is an unmitigated disaster), privatization of the public sector (he spoke of infrastructure, which promised jobs, but really meant more layers of profit in everything anyone uses -- like high tolls on what are now free highways), tax cuts (although he ignored admitting that he would use tariffs essentially as sales taxes on many imports). Then there was dog-whistle bigotry. Trump is a rogue, but for many who voted for him he would be 'their' rogue.

d) It is tempting to shady pols, but it might not be effective this time. We can watch the midterm elections to see where Republicans lose any possible advantage from administering the elections.

e) I expect Republicans to get scared and decide that this is the last time for them to have any chance to replace the federal income tax with regressive sales taxes, eviscerate unions, privatize public assets to monopolistic profiteers, get Supreme Court justices who will outlaw abortion and even contraception and find ways to limit homosexual rights or even making voting contingent on tax-paying, income, or not collecting relief ... I see some of these Republicans scared of an FDR. 

I look at the polls and I almost see a first-term President losing as badly as Carter or Hoover. Trump is not Carter, who is not Hoover. I recognize a natural floor of 40% of the popular vote for even the most troubled incumbent.

Seeing Democrats vilify the personality of 'their' President could cause right-leaning people to 'circle the wagons'.
 
f) The big problem may be that as in 2016, Trump so sullies the political process that people decide that voting is not worth it.   

Voter turnout, as a % of Voting Eligible Population, was up from 2012 to 2016, though. (58% in 2012, 59% in 2016)

Voting share going down is this weird zombie myth that won't stay down. It doesn't even make intuitive sense when you remember that 129 million people voted in 2012 vs 137 million in 2016. The population isn't growing fast enough for that to be anything like a lowering in participation rates.

[Person Man]

Trump surging, #RedWave, etc etc

Because people are selling their old



and buying new

[GeorgiaModerate]

Maine: PPP, Aug. 17-18, 529 registered voters

Approve 42
Disapprove 53

[Gass3268]

Maine: PPP, Aug. 17-18, 529 registered voters

Approve 42
Disapprove 53

I think more significantly, Collins net approval is at -13% and is equally unpopular with Trump voters (34/51) and Clinton voters (32/51).

[BudgieForce]

Maine: PPP, Aug. 17-18, 529 registered voters

Approve 42
Disapprove 53

I think more significantly, Collins net approval is at -13% and is equally unpopular with Trump voters (34/51) and Clinton voters (32/51).

She brought that on herself unfortunately.

[IceSpear]

Trump becoming beloved by the American people.

Does Torie need to give you another smackdown?

[Dr. Arch]

Trump becoming beloved by the American people.

Does Torie need to give you another smackdown?

Torie should just straight out kick him out. We've seen this tired act one too many times now.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Torie should just straight out kick him out. We've seen this tired act one too many times now.

It's clutter. I work too hard to have time to wade through his nonsense.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Torie should just straight out kick him out. We've seen this tired act one too many times now.

It's clutter. I work too hard to have time to wade through his nonsense.

Put him (and the other one) on Ignore.  I did a long time ago and it really helps.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Put him (and the other one) on Ignore.  I did a long time ago and it really helps.

I did that, but everyone still replies to his ridiculousness.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Illinois: Marist/NBC News, Aug. 12-16, 831 adults including 734 registered voters.

Approve 31 (strongly 19)
Disapprove 56 (strongly 43)

GCB (RV only): D 52, R 35

[Badger]

Trump becoming beloved by the American people.

Does Torie need to give you another smackdown?

Torie should just straight out kick him out. We've seen this tired act one too many times now.

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire: Praecones Analytica for the NH Journal.  Aug. 13-15, 626 registered voters (landline IVR + online)

Approve: 41
Disapprove: 54

GCB: D 44, R 41

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, how likely would you be to vote to re-elect Donald Trump?

Very likely 36
Somewhat likely 5
Somewhat unlikely 7
Not at all likely 50

I know it's never a good mindset to just assume the next election is a given, but I'm finding it difficult to see how Trump wins 2020 if he keeps getting polls like this. Not only has he permanently alienated basically everyone who didn't vote for him, which is already more than enough to lose by a 2008-level margin, but he's also been shaving a few points off his original base of support, which would bring him closer to double digit loss territory.

It is only one small state in population, area, and electoral votes, but Donald Trump barely lost it in 2020.  This is not an outlier, in view of other polls of New Hampshire.  

This question suggests the possibility of a comparison to the question that Marist asked voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin on whether they would vote for or vote against re-electing Donald Trump in 2020. I will err on the side of caution in comparing the answer that  Praeconex Analytica gets for new Hampshire to what Marist gets for six other states,  adding the numbers for those who are 'very likely' or 'somewhat likely' to vote for Trump as the positive for him and only the 'not at all likely' number as 'voting against'. That is thus 41-50 as I interpret it.  If I am wrong I have the comparatively harmless error of underestimating how many people would vote against him. 41-57 could be right. In view of how wrong I got 2016, I err on the side against my partisan bias but I do not assume that apparent outliers are wrong.

Despite its small size and its location, New Hampshire has been a fairly good microcosm of America in politics of the recent past. It could have easily been the tipping point for Gore in 2000 (had one added the votes for Gore and Nader that year, Gore wins) and it was close to the tipping point (its electoral votes in the 260s for Obama in 2008). It was slightly more R than the US as a whole in 2016.

Donald Trump's record  is now a poor match for the political culture for New Hampshire. Note well: even if he has a solid base of support, his 'squishy' support is tiny. Democrats may need to consolidate the 'squishy' opposition. At this point, I project the President to lose New Hampshire 53-41-7, with 5 of the 7 going to conservative third-party opponents. I will be delighted to encourage conservatives who could never vote for the Democrat to vote Constitution, Libertarian, Reform, or ...whatever.    

Emerson, New Mexico -- Trump approval 35, disapproval 54.

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-nm-8.19.18.pdf

Gravis, Michigan: the only good news for Republicans is that Senator Gary Peters is not well known yet. This is also the first poll of Michigan after the August primary.

Trump approval 40, disapproval 55. Stabenow (incumbent Senator) and Whitmer (Democrat running for the open Governorship) have commanding leads at this point. Trump's tax reform (a/k/a give-away to economic elites) is unpopular (30-42). Repeal of same-sex marriage will not be a good proposition for Republicans (56-31 support for same-sex marriage). Non-discrimination against homosexuals? 57-26. Abortion ban? 51-31 against.  

Russia investigation? 47-43. Mueller investigation?  46-29. Ending, as Trump wants, the Iran deal that Obama got? 42-37. Border wall? 40 for, 50 against.

Michigan is beginning to look as if the bare Trump win in 2016 was a fluke. This state could easily be a double-digit loss for the President in 2020.

I'm holding off on putting these two polls on the map, as I expect more polls to come in in the middle of this week.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Michigan_(August_16_2018).pdf

Maine: PPP, Aug. 17-18, 529 registered voters

Approve 42
Disapprove 53

Maine voters do not like Kavanaugh, and they will be less likely to vote for Senator Susan Collins if she votes to place him on the Supreme Court bench.

No change on the map.

And finally the biggest electoral prize in the Midwest:

Illinois: Marist/NBC News, Aug. 12-16, 831 adults including 734 registered voters.

Approve 31 (strongly 19)
Disapprove 56 (strongly 43)

GCB (RV only): D 52, R 35

Oh. It's Illinois.



    

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.