Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[junior chįmp]

Trump is at 52-39 in Arkansas. Not great considering he won it 61-34.

https://talkbusiness.net/2018/09/hutchinson-has-commanding-lead-trump-job-approval-at-52/

Must be all those patriot Trump voters woke up to find themselves tossed off the Medicaid rolls

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ohio: Morning Consult/Politico, Sep. 2-11, 1603 registered voters.

Approve 42 (strongly 20)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 40)

GCB: D 43, R 37

[BudgieForce]

YouGov decides to be the odd one out this week: Sep. 9-11, 1500 adults including 1220 registered voters

Among adults:

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 48 (-5)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-4)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 44 (-1), R 41 (+1)

How is YouGov still in business?

They're not bad in Europe.

[Florida Man for Crime]

[quote author=PittsburghSteel link=topic=297289.msg6408428#msg6408428 date=1536761268
How is YouGov still in business?
[/quote]

They do online polls, which are cheap. News organizations often like cheap, low quality polls more than expensive higher quality polls, because the purpose news organizations have in publishing polls is not so much to get accurate information as to have something that they can write a story about, and also get some clicks.

[Yank2133]

This is typical. A few good polls and suddenly D's on Atlas starts celebrating the inevitable 2020 victory. Sure, there has been a discernible tick down in Trumps numbers over the last couple of weeks. But whatever might have caused it (McCain, Cohen, WH insider, Woodward, etc), there is no particular reason to believe that THIS was the final straw that broke Trump. If the past is any predictor of the future, Trump is likely to bounce back. As long as the economy is strong in 2020 (it may or may not be), Trump will be at least competitive.

If Atlas actually considered the way Trump's numbers tend to ebb and flow, they'd realize that this really isn't the best situation for Dems. If his approval ratings are dipping now, there's a good chance that they will be ticking back up by November. It appears that the generic ballot is starting to regress toward the mean already, having gone from D+9.5 to D+7.8 in the last week.

This would mean something if Trump could get over 45%. That has been the President's problem since the spring of 2017. His numbers dip to the thirties and then "recover" to the low 40's.

I have said it before, but people really overrated Trump's "strength". His ceiling is capped because he has done nothing but alienated everyone besides his base.

Nice speech, but the thing is that the Dems aren't taking the House without winning the generic ballot by 6-7%. Trump's approval rating getting back up to 44% by Election Day could have a significant impact on the House PV.

And frankly, for all the obituaries that were written for Trump and the Republicans in October 2016, anybody who is counting their chickens in the second week of September is a real idiot.

I doubt that.

Obama's approval ratings were in the mid-40s in 2010 and look what happened. Also, comparing 2018 to 2016 is dumb. Completely different set of circumstances and a much different political environment.

[Virginiá]

Nice speech, but the thing is that the Dems aren't taking the House without winning the generic ballot by 6-7%. Trump's approval rating getting back up to 44% by Election Day could have a significant impact on the House PV.

And frankly, for all the obituaries that were written for Trump and the Republicans in October 2016, anybody who is counting their chickens in the second week of September is a real idiot.

Eh, I think Cook (or was it Wasserman?) had it right when he said that waves can remain the same or even grow larger, but they never reverse, especially in the last weeks of an election. There are no examples of that ever happening.

I don't expect everyone to agree, but personally I think that expecting some sort of last minute swing back to Republicans is foolhardy. Even just saying it's possible doesn't seem right. That isn't in line with how waves have played out in the past. If anything, the bottom is more likely to fall out for Republicans in a few weeks than anything else.

[Brittain33]

Nice speech, but the thing is that the Dems aren't taking the House without winning the generic ballot by 6-7%. Trump's approval rating getting back up to 44% by Election Day could have a significant impact on the House PV.

And frankly, for all the obituaries that were written for Trump and the Republicans in October 2016, anybody who is counting their chickens in the second week of September is a real idiot.

Eh, I think Cook (or was it Wasserman?) had it right when he said that waves can remain the same or even grow larger, but they never reverse, especially in the last weeks of an election. There are no examples of that ever happening.

I don't expect everyone to agree, but personally I think that expecting some sort of last minute swing back to Republicans is foolhardy. Even just saying it's possible doesn't seem right. That isn't in line with how waves have played out in the past. If anything, the bottom is more likely to fall out for Republicans in a few weeks than anything else.

My recollection of 2006 is that the bottom fell out for Republicans with Foley, but in the very final weeks, there was some shoring up as some Republicans came home. Is that accurate?

[IceSpear]

Nice speech, but the thing is that the Dems aren't taking the House without winning the generic ballot by 6-7%. Trump's approval rating getting back up to 44% by Election Day could have a significant impact on the House PV.

And frankly, for all the obituaries that were written for Trump and the Republicans in October 2016, anybody who is counting their chickens in the second week of September is a real idiot.

Eh, I think Cook (or was it Wasserman?) had it right when he said that waves can remain the same or even grow larger, but they never reverse, especially in the last weeks of an election. There are no examples of that ever happening.

I don't expect everyone to agree, but personally I think that expecting some sort of last minute swing back to Republicans is foolhardy. Even just saying it's possible doesn't seem right. That isn't in line with how waves have played out in the past. If anything, the bottom is more likely to fall out for Republicans in a few weeks than anything else.

My recollection of 2006 is that the bottom fell out for Republicans with Foley, but in the very final weeks, there was some shoring up as some Republicans came home. Is that accurate?

If the generic polls from 2006 were any indication, then it is indeed accurate. Not only did Republicans shoot up in the final polls, they even outperformed those by quite a bit:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html

Of course, it was always completely unrealistic that Democrats were going to win the generic vote by 16 points or whatever. It's definitely possible that Republicans will do better than they're doing now, but it's almost certainly going to be a good Dem year. That's already pretty much baked in, barring some black swan event. The only question is how good it will be.

[pbrower2a]

Talk Business/Hendrix College

Trump is at 52-39 in Arkansas. Not great considering he won it 61-34.


Trump


“The Talk Business-Hendrix College survey of GOP Primary voters in April showed President Donald Trump with high favorability among Republicans (86%), but it’s a different story with the broader electorate in this survey. Among likely general election voters, Trump’s approval is much lower, primarily driven downward by low approval among Democrats and weaker support from females and younger voters. Voters 45-64 and 65+ approve of the President at levels greater than 50%, while voters 18-29 and 30-44 approve at 45.6% and 47.2% respectively. Male voters approve of President Trump by a wide margin (59.3% to 33.2%), while approval is lower and disapproval higher among female voters (46.1% to 43.6%). Trump’s approval is strongest in CD1 (56%) and CD4 (55%), dips in CD3 (50.3%) and is the lowest CD2 (46.8%), all of which correspond to congressional race results in each of those districts.”

The Republican Governor is doing fine. In this Right-leaning state, Trump stands to lose a Congressional district for the GOP and might make another shaky. Arkansas is one of the few states in which demographics so strongly favor the Republican Party. It is hard to believe that the state used to have Bill Clinton as Governor and as late as 2010 two Democratic Senators.

...and a state far closer to the national mean, Ohio:

Ohio: Morning Consult/Politico, Sep. 2-11, 1603 registered voters.

Approve 42 (strongly 20)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 40)

GCB: D 43, R 37

 

No Republican has won the Presidency without winning Ohio for over a century. Nobody wins a state while having 55% disapproval. Sure, it is two years, but some attitudes seem highly entrenched for now.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[Brittain33]

Nice speech, but the thing is that the Dems aren't taking the House without winning the generic ballot by 6-7%. Trump's approval rating getting back up to 44% by Election Day could have a significant impact on the House PV.

And frankly, for all the obituaries that were written for Trump and the Republicans in October 2016, anybody who is counting their chickens in the second week of September is a real idiot.

Eh, I think Cook (or was it Wasserman?) had it right when he said that waves can remain the same or even grow larger, but they never reverse, especially in the last weeks of an election. There are no examples of that ever happening.

I don't expect everyone to agree, but personally I think that expecting some sort of last minute swing back to Republicans is foolhardy. Even just saying it's possible doesn't seem right. That isn't in line with how waves have played out in the past. If anything, the bottom is more likely to fall out for Republicans in a few weeks than anything else.

My recollection of 2006 is that the bottom fell out for Republicans with Foley, but in the very final weeks, there was some shoring up as some Republicans came home. Is that accurate?

If the generic polls from 2006 were any indication, then it is indeed accurate. Not only did Republicans shoot up in the final polls, they even outperformed those by quite a bit:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html

Of course, it was always completely unrealistic that Democrats were going to win the generic vote by 16 points or whatever. It's definitely possible that Republicans will do better than they're doing now, but it's almost certainly going to be a good Dem year. That's already pretty much baked in, barring some black swan event. The only question is how good it will be.

Thank you, that’s how I remember it. Democrats had some gaudy margins in the polls late in the game that didn’t completely materialize on Election Day. Even though taking the Senate was a surprise, if not a complete one because Webb was clearly competitive by November.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A bunch of state polls from Fox News, all conducted Sep. 8-11.


Missouri

808 RV: Approve 49, Disapprove 48 (strongly approve 27, strongly disapprove 36)
675 LV: 49/48 (strongly 29/37)


Indiana

804 RV: 52/46 (strongly 26/34)
677 LV: 54/44 (strongly 30/34)


North Dakota

804 RV: 54/42 (strongly 33/33)
701 LV: 54/42 (strongly 35/34)


Tennessee

809 RV: 56/39 (strongly 30/30)
686 LV: 58/38 (strongly 31/30)


Arizona

801 RV: 48/49 (strongly 27/38)
710 LV: 49/49 (strongly 28/38)

[Progressive Pessimist]

A bunch of state polls from Fox News, all conducted Sep. 8-11.


Missouri

808 RV: Approve 49, Disapprove 48 (strongly approve 27, strongly disapprove 36)
675 LV: 49/48 (strongly 29/37)


Indiana

804 RV: 52/46 (strongly 26/34)
677 LV: 54/44 (strongly 30/34)


North Dakota

804 RV: 54/42 (strongly 33/33)
701 LV: 54/42 (strongly 35/34)


Tennessee

809 RV: 56/39 (strongly 30/30)
686 LV: 58/38 (strongly 31/30)


Arizona

801 RV: 48/49 (strongly 27/38)
710 LV: 49/49 (strongly 28/38)

I'm not sure what to make of these, but if that Missouri number is accurate-OUCH! Those probably made McCaskill smile.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A bunch of state polls from Fox News, all conducted Sep. 8-11.


Missouri

808 RV: Approve 49, Disapprove 48 (strongly approve 27, strongly disapprove 36)
675 LV: 49/48 (strongly 29/37)


Indiana

804 RV: 52/46 (strongly 26/34)
677 LV: 54/44 (strongly 30/34)


North Dakota

804 RV: 54/42 (strongly 33/33)
701 LV: 54/42 (strongly 35/34)


Tennessee

809 RV: 56/39 (strongly 30/30)
686 LV: 58/38 (strongly 31/30)


Arizona

801 RV: 48/49 (strongly 27/38)
710 LV: 49/49 (strongly 28/38)

I'm not sure what to make of these, but if that Missouri number is accurate-OUCH! Those probably made McCaskill smile.

To make her even happier, McCaskill's actually leading in this poll (41/39 RV, 44/41 LV).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult's 50-state Trump approval tracker, updated yesterday: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/.  Lots to see here, but the one state that jumps out at me is Wisconsin.  They now have Trump at 42/54, compared to 47/41 after he took office.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Morning Consult's 50-state Trump approval tracker, updated yesterday: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/.  Lots to see here, but the one state that jumps out at me is Wisconsin.  They now have Trump at 42/54, compared to 47/41 after he took office.

Still lagging similar states in the region. Minnesota is D+1 in PVI and Wisconsin is EVEN, thus they should only be a point to right...instead they are 6 points or so to the right of MN in approval.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, Sep. 6-12, 15408 adults including 13561 registered voters

Among adults:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 29 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

This poll has been stuck in a narrow range for months.  I'm starting to wonder if they're just making up the numbers.

[pbrower2a]

Recognizing that "net approval" is different from what I have in my approval ratings thread, that it offers a different angle, and has all states at once...


https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

Here are the states (I assume that  the District of Columbia was among those with negative net approval)  in January 2017

-10 or higher net disapproval
-5 to -9
-1 to -4
neutral (white)
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 or higher net approval


Suffice to say -- the President started with much good will. Check the link and follow the instructions for numerical detail.  This was fair warning that liberalism was in hibernation, if not moribund, in America.

If net approval is the vote in the net election, then Trump ends up with all but 72 electoral votes, ending up with a blowout win of 466-72.   


Some states that President Trump had lost were as follows:

Illinois +9
New York +8
Virginia +8
New Mexico +17

His barest losses:

Michigan +7
Pennsylvania +10
Wisconsin +6
Florida +22

.....

So here is what Morning Consult has for August 2018. In most of last month, Manafort was still on trial and Michael Cohen had yet to cop a plea bargain to get himself the best deal he could get (and hurt the legal position of the President), so as with even a road map it is already obsolete.

-10 or higher net disapproval
-5 to -9
-1 to -4
neutral (white)
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 or higher net approval

236 electoral votes (figuring that ME-02 is 10% more D than Maine at large) are presumably out of reach of the President, and 59 are outside of the margin of approval. This is a more charitable estimate to President Trump than what I have for him have based on 100-DIS(approval) or such a measure as an answer to the question "would you rather vote to re-elect Donald Trump or vote for someone else?", whichever is worse for him. 

Do I like this analysis? Not really except for its timeliness and its offer of results every month for all states. Some of the results are simply counter-intuitive. It hardly makes sense that South Dakota and North Dakota are so different in polling of net approval. Likewise I find it hard to believe that Nebraska and Florida have about the same net disapproval, or that Oklahoma has lower disapproval for Trump than a raft of other states.

And note that this excludes data for the time after some troublesome convictions or plea bargains by Trump associates.

All polls are estimates. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kansas: PPP, Sep. 12-13, 618 voters

Approve 50
Disapprove 45

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: Rasmussen, Sep. 10-11, 1000 likely voters

Approve 50 (strongly 40)
Disapprove 50 (strongly 47)

[pbrower2a]

A bunch of state polls from Fox News, all conducted Sep. 8-11.


Missouri

808 RV: Approve 49, Disapprove 48 (strongly approve 27, strongly disapprove 36)
675 LV: 49/48 (strongly 29/37)


Indiana

804 RV: 52/46 (strongly 26/34)
677 LV: 54/44 (strongly 30/34)


North Dakota

804 RV: 54/42 (strongly 33/33)
701 LV: 54/42 (strongly 35/34)


Tennessee

809 RV: 56/39 (strongly 30/30)
686 LV: 58/38 (strongly 31/30)


Arizona

801 RV: 48/49 (strongly 27/38)
710 LV: 49/49 (strongly 28/38)

I'm not sure what to make of these, but if that Missouri number is accurate-OUCH! Those probably made McCaskill smile.

To make her even happier, McCaskill's actually leading in this poll (41/39 RV, 44/41 LV).

Somewhat more Republican-leaning than most other polls (especially on Arizona). I'm going with registered voters because such is closer for Presidential (if not midterm) voters.

Dislike a poll? Then wait for one to replace it.

Kansas: PPP, Sep. 12-13, 618 voters

Approve 50
Disapprove 45

Awful when one considers that the state is Kansas

Rasmussen, Florida:

50-50.

It's Rasmussen.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[Brittain33]

Florida: Rasmussen, Sep. 10-11, 1000 likely voters

Approve 50 (strongly 40)
Disapprove 50 (strongly 47)

No flipping' way. Trump regularly gets about 25 on this nationally.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: Rasmussen, Sep. 10-11, 1000 likely voters

Approve 50 (strongly 40)
Disapprove 50 (strongly 47)

No flipping' way. Trump regularly gets about 25 on this nationally.

True, and it is Rasmussen, but ISTR we've seen Trump with some other high strong approval numbers in Florida from other pollsters.  I have no idea why.

[Kodak]

Florida: Rasmussen, Sep. 10-11, 1000 likely voters

Approve 50 (strongly 40)
Disapprove 50 (strongly 47)

No flipping' way. Trump regularly gets about 25 on this nationally.

True, and it is Rasmussen, but ISTR we've seen Trump with some other high strong approval numbers in Florida from other pollsters.  I have no idea why.

Floridaman remains an enigma to the rest of America.

[Doimper]

Florida: Rasmussen, Sep. 10-11, 1000 likely voters

Approve 50 (strongly 40)
Disapprove 50 (strongly 47)

No flipping' way. Trump regularly gets about 25 on this nationally.

True, and it is Rasmussen, but ISTR we've seen Trump with some other high strong approval numbers in Florida from other pollsters.  I have no idea why.

Embittered, racist retirees that want the 1950's back.

[Person Man]

A bunch of state polls from Fox News, all conducted Sep. 8-11.


Missouri

808 RV: Approve 49, Disapprove 48 (strongly approve 27, strongly disapprove 36)
675 LV: 49/48 (strongly 29/37)


Indiana

804 RV: 52/46 (strongly 26/34)
677 LV: 54/44 (strongly 30/34)


North Dakota

804 RV: 54/42 (strongly 33/33)
701 LV: 54/42 (strongly 35/34)


Tennessee

809 RV: 56/39 (strongly 30/30)
686 LV: 58/38 (strongly 31/30)


Arizona

801 RV: 48/49 (strongly 27/38)
710 LV: 49/49 (strongly 28/38)

I'm not sure what to make of these, but if that Missouri number is accurate-OUCH! Those probably made McCaskill smile.

To make her even happier, McCaskill's actually leading in this poll (41/39 RV, 44/41 LV).

Somewhat more Republican-leaning than most other polls (especially on Arizona). I'm going with registered voters because such is closer for Presidential (if not midterm) voters.

Dislike a poll? Then wait for one to replace it.

Kansas: PPP, Sep. 12-13, 618 voters

Approve 50
Disapprove 45

Awful when one considers that the state is Kansas

Rasmussen, Florida:

50-50.

It's Rasmussen.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

And the Democrats are doing well in the poll...