GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/GalenMetzger1/status/1598007729179701248
https://mobile.twitter.com/GalenMetzger1/status/1598012511038472192
This guy was calling Oz doa earlier on election night than most so he seems to be credible for something like this

[prag_prog]

TargetEarly has runoff data now..something interesting to monitor tomorrow would be how Black % compares vs General election at county level. Tom pointed this out earlier today -

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1597998189638189056
 

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/r2022?demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22race%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&geo=Fulton&geo_type=counties

[forsythvoter]

My wife and I just voted on our lunch break at our early voting location in south Forsyth County. We had heard from friends in North Fulton that there were massive lines in nearby Alpharetta, but fortunately there was only a small line at our site and we were in an out in under 15 minutes.

We voted for Warnock. My sense is there hasn't been much (really any) change in voter preference among our friend circle (which to give you a sense, is mostly 30-somethings with college degrees that live in the north metro suburbs and includes a good number of Biden-Kemp-Warnock voters) and among our immediate family (mostly 60-somethings that are R or R-leaning and are sticking with Walker). The only shift I know of is a friend couple that went L in the general election but are backing Warnock in the runoff because they are socially liberal and think the Rs taking control of the house will be a sufficient check on a 51-49D senate.

Our precinct went 81-18 Romney in 2012, 67-32 Trump in 2016, 58-41 Trump in 2020 and 55-43 Walker in the runoff so will be interesting to see where it lands in the runoff given trends.

[President Johnson]

DeKalb filled to the brim with canvassers today. Warnock's base is highly activated. 53% may not be out of the question.

I just want this to happen. Anything above 53% would be a huge punch in the gut of the Republican Party.

[Adam Griffin]

Darkest shade: >55%
Lightest shade: <25%

[GeorgiaModerate]

My wife and I just voted on our lunch break at our early voting location in south Forsyth County. We had heard from friends in North Fulton that there were massive lines in nearby Alpharetta, but fortunately there was only a small line at our site and we were in an out in under 15 minutes.

We voted for Warnock. My sense is there hasn't been much (really any) change in voter preference among our friend circle (which to give you a sense, is mostly 30-somethings with college degrees that live in the north metro suburbs and includes a good number of Biden-Kemp-Warnock voters) and among our immediate family (mostly 60-somethings that are R or R-leaning and are sticking with Walker). The only shift I know of is a friend couple that went L in the general election but are backing Warnock in the runoff because they are socially liberal and think the Rs taking control of the house will be a sufficient check on a 51-49D senate.

Our precinct went 81-18 Romney in 2012, 67-32 Trump in 2016, 58-41 Trump in 2020 and 55-43 Walker in the runoff so will be interesting to see where it lands in the runoff given trends.

Most North Fulton sites are still showing long waits (see https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/1a86b03b27fa48188bf3699c4eccfb20) while all four Forysth sites are <30 minutes.  I think one difference, apart from population density, is that Forsyth County government operations in general tend to be highly efficient, more so than anyplace else I've lived (also, the county employees are usually very helpful and friendly).  I've lived in five metro counties over the years, and as far as ease in getting things done with the county it's been Forsyth > Cherokee > Gwinnett > DeKalb >>> Fulton.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1598035230182756354

[South Dakota Democrat]

Darkest shade: >55%
Lightest shade: <25%

What does this mean, in a nutshell? What's the takeaway?

[GeorgiaModerate]

What does this mean, in a nutshell? What's the takeaway?

The key takeaway is that Adam likes making maps.

[Adam Griffin]

What does this mean, in a nutshell? What's the takeaway?

More or less, good for Warnock: since we're comparing EV turnout for the runoff to total general election EV turnout from a month ago, it's a pretty decent apples-to-apples comparison. Republican areas as a whole are falling even further behind Democratic areas in EV than they did in the GE. It's a favorable (tentative) indicator for Warnock.

The flip-side/devil's advocate argument would be that - historically - a greater percentage of the electorate in runoffs vote on Election Day than do in standard general elections (which I'm almost certain will be true for this runoff as well), so it's completely possible the rural areas make up any ground they're currently losing relative to the EV cycle from just a few weeks ago.

[Podgy the Bear]

North Fulton voting spots are now running anywhere from 70-150 minute waits this afternoon. Following the heavy rain overnight, it's much colder today, and people are waiting outdoors with jackets and coats.

Too busy at work today for me to take that much time to vote.  After seeing the full parking lot and the crowd of people outdoors, I turned around and went back.  I'll be down in the southern part of the county tomorrow (wait times are much less in the precincts there).  Otherwise, I'll have to wait until Election Day to vote.

[Tekken_Guy]

What does this mean, in a nutshell? What's the takeaway?

More or less, good for Warnock: since we're comparing EV turnout for the runoff to total general election EV turnout from a month ago, it's a pretty decent apples-to-apples comparison. Republican areas as a whole are falling even further behind Democratic areas in EV than they did in the GE. It's a favorable (tentative) indicator for Warnock.

The flip-side/devil's advocate argument would be that - historically - a greater percentage of the electorate in runoffs vote on Election Day than do in standard general elections (which I'm almost certain will be true for this runoff as well), so it's completely possible the rural areas make up any ground they're currently losing relative to the EV cycle from just a few weeks ago.

The flip side to the flip side. The short EV window means a lot more Democrats vote on Election Day than usual, and the ED vote won’t be as heavily Republican as it was in the GE.

[Adam Griffin]

Monday, 4:45 PM: 239,160 (27,332/hr*)
Tuesday, 5:00 PM: 264,168 (29,352/hr*)
Wednesday, 5 PM: 241,264 (26,807/hr*)

* Assumes all voting statewide begins at 8 am

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1598086527078535168

[Adam Griffin]

Pretty crazy stuff. I'm more than familiar with the post-2022 GA-6, but even I wouldn't have expected such a gap here.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1598009332930863104

[wbrocks67]

One worrisome sign for dems is that the electorate is becoming older, the opposite of what normally happens. It really seems like there was a post-Thanksgiving rush among the youth last Saturday and it is now receding.

... you're really doing a lot given that we're literally only 2 days out from that post-Thanksgiving rush

[All Along The Watchtower]

How much credence should we give the “Republicans historically have performed better in Georgia runoffs, 2021 was the exception” (therefore, Walker has a better chance?) line of thinking?

[Progressive Pessimist]

How much credence should we give the “Republicans historically have performed better in Georgia runoffs, 2021 was the exception” (therefore, Walker has a better chance?) line of thinking?

Probably very little given how unprecedented this year's elections overall were, especially when it comes to the now apparent fact that Democrats are performing better in non-November elections.
That has proven to be true, as many were saying in trying to be dismissive of the Democrats' special election performance from earlier in the year, but it still isn't a given that better GOP turnout in November elections are all it takes to guarantee a win in the average election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1598113292178034688

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1598113292178034688

Loser is spelled H-E-R-S-C-H-E-L now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm watching a college basketball game on ESPN+ and there's been a Warnock ad (not always the same one) in every single commercial break.  Zero Walker ads.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1598132455370022912

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1598139129673678849

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like we're getting no statewide EV data tonight by county, race, gender or age except the grouping of counties that Sterling tweeted out several hours ago. Guess we'll see the damage in the morning.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Solid, impactful ad. $6 Million ad buy, btw.

Or at least, as impactful as advertising can be these days.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1598139129673678849

Should have cast a blank or a write-in. Not voting is just a failure of one's civic duty and especially inexcusable of a public official.