GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't know what to believe with the way they fouled up polling and the Approvals are still wrong IPSOS 37/57, LOL PLSE

[Minnesota Mike]

We might end up at around 250K today..Black % of today's voters should give much better idea about the makeup of electorate than last 2 days data.

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1597291917091700736

Even with record turnout every day with only 5 statewide in person EV days they will still have half the early turnout as Nov.

[Adam Griffin]

I think the one-day record during EV (including ABMs, which are always included in my counts) was around 265k - I want to say that was on the final day of in-person voting in 2018 (I don't think it was 2020, but maybe).

In 2022 GE, the highest turnout was the same day, with 244k.

[Adam Griffin]

Fairly consistently seeing 30k votes per hour today. If that rate merely holds, we could see another 90k by 5 PM. Around half of the state's voters live in places where there is at least one EV location open past 5 (in some cases, 6, 7 or even 8 PM), from which another 20-30k could come in afterward.

That alone would be enough to break the one-day record - and this is on the first day of statewide in-person, rather than the last day per usual. This also ignores any potential last-hour rush from people getting off of work.

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1597310914726100992

[GALeftist]

No one should draw any conclusions from this anecdote but I voted early this past weekend while home from college for Thanksgiving and lines were insanely long throughout Fulton both days.

[Pollster]

"I don't even understand what he thinks he's saying" is a great example of a line in an ad almost certainly plucked directly from a focus group quote.

https://twitter.com/reverendwarnock/status/1596532507566133250?s=42&t=bAqEbM...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just voted early with wife & son (+3 for Warnock) in western Forsyth County.  There was a constant stream of people moving in and out, but with only one race on the ballot it moved quickly and we had zero wait time.  The poll worker who checked me in said it had been like that all day, but they expected it due to the compressed EV period.

For comparison, my experiences at the same EV site, time of day, and day (first Monday of EV):

2022 Primary: Long line, 20 minute wait.
2022 GE: Short line, 10 minute wait.
2022 Runoff: No line or wait, but steady stream of voters.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1597329249081622528

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1597334985568325632

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1597250325047824385

Man…

Warnock for DSCC Chair?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

"I don't even understand what he thinks he's saying" is a great example of a line in an ad almost certainly plucked directly from a focus group quote.

https://twitter.com/reverendwarnock/status/1596532507566133250?s=42&t=bAqEbM...

I'd have said "this man doesn't need a senate seat, he needs help."

[Adam Griffin]

I guess this is in-person voting record broken? Like I said before, most ballots cast/received (including ABM) on a single day was around 265k - but I bet we're still on track to break this with in-person voting alone once all the other counties offering EV past 5 close and report:

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1597351562161975296

[Person Man]

"I don't even understand what he thinks he's saying" is a great example of a line in an ad almost certainly plucked directly from a focus group quote.

https://twitter.com/reverendwarnock/status/1596532507566133250?s=42&t=bAqEbM...

I'd have said "this man doesn't need a senate seat, he needs help."

Just say No to drugs.

[Skill and Chance]

I guess this is in-person voting record broken? Like I said before, most ballots cast/received (including ABM) on a single day was around 265k - but I bet we're still on track to break this with in-person voting alone once all the other counties offering EV past 5 close and report:

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1597351562161975296

Didn't GA R's make changes that intentionally push people away from VBM and toward in-person EV?  I know GA still technically has no-excuse VBM, but I think it's a lot more complicated now?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why is he celebrating high turnout when his office wanted to block early voting over the weekend? Fraud.

Honestly, the fact that people like Raffensperger were/are celebrated by Democrats is a testament to how low the bar has become for Republicans. He merely refused to aid Trump in stealing an election by "finding votes", which in an ideal world would be the bare minimum for a public servant. Other than that, Raffensperger has been a supporter of other perennial Republican efforts to make voting difficult or inconvenient for Democrats. And Brian Kemp of all people post-2020 seems to have gotten a pass on an otherwise atrocious history on voting rights. His tenure as SoS was tainted by everything from tossing tens of thousands off the voter rolls, to investigating voter registration groups to disrupt their efforts during elections, to literally arresting Democrats who dared to win local elections, a brazen abuse of power that harkens back to the days of Jim Crow. Raffensperger might not be as bad as Kemp, but he is no friend to supporters of fair elections.

Yep. The danger with Trump now is essentially any Republican who "fights" with him is essentially given a pass by "moderates" in the end, even if that Republican in question is still incredibly conservative.

DeSantis is another example of this, and possibly the most dangerous one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1597312674333077504

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1597387050399199233

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1597414255523160064

[wbrocks67]

Given the small time frame, I wonder if we'll see 200k+ all this week.

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1597387050399199233

He's such a loser.

[Adam Griffin]

Didn't GA R's make changes that intentionally push people away from VBM and toward in-person EV?  I know GA still technically has no-excuse VBM, but I think it's a lot more complicated now?

Other than reducing drop-off box availability, timeline of mailing out ballots and maybe restricting who can mail people ABM applications unsolicited (not sure about that last one), not really.

You can even apply for a mail ballot online (as I did, for the first time ever, for this runoff) via the SoS so long as you 1) are a registered voter, 2) have driver's license or SSN, 3) have access to a printer and scanner, sign and scan back in the application, and upload it directly back to the website:

https://securemyabsenteeballot.sos.ga.gov/s/absentee-ballot-request

[Rookie Yinzer]

It is more complicated than 2020 and I don’t know anyone who still uses a printer like that so it was definitely designed to reduce VBM and has pushed people back to IPEV hard.

[Agafin]

40% black seems very good for dems though I assume the electorate will get less black with each passing day. Though really, it is the youth numbers rather than race/gender which are most favorable to dems as of now.

[Adam Griffin]

40% black seems very good for dems though I assume the electorate will get less black with each passing day. Though really, it is the youth numbers rather than race/gender which are most favorable to dems as of now.

It dropped 6 points today alone by total vote*, going from 180k to 420k (46% black to 40% black).

Total EV black share will likely drop another 3-4 points or so tomorrow, and probably another 1-2 on Wednesday. After that, it'll continue to drop but the drop will probably stabilize enough to where the final EV count is above 30% regardless. We need another full day of in-person statewide EV to get a better idea.


However: it's important to remember that even among older, whiter and more male audiences in the in-person EV, said groups are substantially more DEM than their actuaries would suggest. Case in point:

Early In-Person
Warnock   52.81 (+7.20)
Walker    45.61

Early by Mail
Warnock   67.60 (+37.17)
Walker   30.43

TOTAL EARLY VOTE
Warnock   54.25 (+10.12)
Walker   44.13

* Technically there are another 58k votes not reported by GeorgiaVotes for today: no idea how these break down in terms of race/age/gender - though these are probably disproportionately from counties that had EV centers open later and therefore are more favorable to Democrats than the aggregate of today's vote

[Adam Griffin]

Also, something I just noticed that's fairly interesting: in both 2020 and 2022 GEs, the PRES & SEN EV/ED gaps were very similar (EV = AIP + ABM):

2020 EV/ED Partisan Gap: DEM +06 vs GOP +22 (28 points)
2022 EV/ED Partisan Gap: DEM +10 vs GOP +16 (26 points)

However, the 2021 Senate runoff had a huge gap of 40 points (DEM +14 vs GOP +26) - so perhaps favorable EV (relative to 2020/2022 GEs) doesn't inherently mean a good sign for Warnock. We'll see!