GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Minnesota Mike]

Does anybody remember when Fred Thompson was gonna be President or Lynn Swann was gonna be PA Gov.

This feels like that.

I don't think anyone actually thought Swann had a serious chance of winning.

Not sure anyone serious thinks Walker has much of a chance of winning either.

[Minnesota Mike]

Will be interesting how Walker handles the GOP talking points about voter fraud.

Moves from Lean D to Likely D.

[Minnesota Mike]

I really don't think you can justify Hershel Walker moving the race in favor of the Dems. Dude is literally a god over there. Who the hell would perform better than him? David Perdue?

Anyone under 50 probably does not remember seeing him play at Georgia. He has not lived in the state for nearly 40 years. He has a ton of baggage including domestic abuse, mental health issues and the fact his wife may be facing voter fraud charges. On top of all that he has zero experience as a candidate. Republicans would be better off with a generic R candidate (yes that includes Perdue) than Walker IMHO.

[Minnesota Mike]

Source?

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/in-final-week-gop-resurfaces-warnock-dispute-with-then-wife/76IGPSTIIJBDRMRBV4GKW7IMA4/

An examination of hours of police bodycam video reviewed by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution shows that three Atlanta investigators who responded to Ouleye Warnock’s 911 call said they found no evidence her husband did anything wrong.

The footage shows one Atlanta police officer saying that “I don’t think any intent is there” and a second officer saying “I don’t think he did it.” An official who inspected Ouleye Warnock’s foot said she didn’t see any visible signs of injury and expressed skepticism about her accusations.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1514574197229559808

[Minnesota Mike]

Ridiculously over inflated charges. Pathetic smear attempts.

The Church camp- Some teenage camp counselors acted badly, throwing urine on a camper. There is no indication Warnock knew about or condoned their actions. Warnock was arrested when he insisted the camp counselors, who were minors,  have either a parent or lawyer present when they were interviewed. When the prosecutor dismissed the charges he said "What we decided was there was some miscommunication that had occurred with them. They were very helpful with the continued investigation. It would not have been a prudent use of resources to have prosecuted them."

"Running over his Ex wife"-

Warnock was married to Oulèye Ndoye; they divorced in May. Until July, Ndoye served on Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms' executive team as the city’s senior human trafficking fellow.

Warnock called police to Ndoye’s Atlanta home shortly before 8:30 a.m. on March 2. According to a police report: 

Warnock said Ndoye accused him of running over her left foot with his 2014 Tesla while they were arguing in her driveway. Ndoye was reluctant to show her foot to the officer, who wrote: "I did not see any signs that Ms. Ouleye’s foot was ran over." Medical personnel arrived and were "not able to locate any swelling, redness, or bruising or broken bones on Ms. Ouleye’s left foot."

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/nov/16/erick-erickson/no-proof-warnock-ran-over-wife-obstruction-case-dr/

[Minnesota Mike]

Pre-Primary FEC report in GA (4-1 to 5-4)

Warnock raised $5.6 mill, spent $8.2 mill, COH $23 mill.
Walker raised $2.2 mill, spent $2.5 mill, COH $7.1 mill.

[Minnesota Mike]

Walker only getting 68% in the primary IMO looks kinda rough for him. He had the whole thing to himself and couldn't even beat Kemp's share.

The RCP average had him at 65%, so he did still outperform the polling data. It just wasn't the same level as Kemp and Raffensperger.

RCP average also had about 9% undecided. Once those are allocated he under preformed the average a bit.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/ChrisCillizza/status/1529818029500076033

This guy wants to be a US Senator? Good lord.

[Minnesota Mike]

I gotta say, it feels like in pretty much every key Senate race, GOP recruits have been from meh to downright awful, and if they lose any of these races it'd be quite embarrasing.

This is the problem when you run somebody just because you think they're a cool football player when they know nothing about policy.

I was told candidate quality doesn't matter, the only thing that matters is it is a Democratic midterm.

[Minnesota Mike]

Well this is interesting. I thought Warnock would narrowly survive based on the weakness of Walker as a candidate but this could be damaging.

Warnock used campaign funds to fight personal lawsuit

On a scale of 1-10 for scandals this seems like a -1. Easy for Warnock to argue the lawsuit was filed to politically damage him and thus using campaign funds is appropriate. Worst case scenario, which I think is unlikely, he has to repay the funds and pay a small fine. Nothingburger.

[Minnesota Mike]

Top 1% of his class ladies and gentleman.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/ChristianWalk1r/status/1577104266543497216

[Minnesota Mike]

As wild as this is I wonder if his Twitter account was hacked? Not that I don't believe Hershel is capable of what he is being accused of but Christian doing a 180 like that? 

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1577108600006365186

At the very least we know he wrote her a $700 check and sent a get well card.

[Minnesota Mike]

Going to be an awkward Thanksgiving in the Walker household.

[Minnesota Mike]

So does anybody know the rules on replacing a senate candidate in Georgia?

[Minnesota Mike]

Isn't there a debate happening right now?  Any way to watch?

https://www.wsav.com/livestream/

[Minnesota Mike]

We might end up at around 250K today..Black % of today's voters should give much better idea about the makeup of electorate than last 2 days data.

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1597291917091700736

Even with record turnout every day with only 5 statewide in person EV days they will still have half the early turnout as Nov.

[Minnesota Mike]

An hour later: 153/163 Dekalb precincts currently have no wait times; 8 have waits of approximately 5 minutes & 2 have 10-minute waits.

Seems like a suboptimally large # of people voted early then, assuming they were in town today?

Apparently (think I saw it here on an earlier post), 250k people statewide voted in the first 2 hours. This of course was a combination of working-age people queuing up before their shifts & an absurdly large number of old farts who've been up since 4 with nothing better to do before swinging by the Hardee's for their sausage and mustard biscuits & going to their doctor appointments.

This hits a little too close to home

[Minnesota Mike]

Pathetic it was even this close considering the gulf in candidate quality, it shows the partisan and nonsensical reality of our elections. At the very least Warnock gets 6 years to let the burgeoning Democratic state of Georgia develop.

It's great Georgia will have 2 Democratic Senators for at least the next 4 years, barring an unexpected vacancy, but beating one of the worst candidates of my lifetime by only 3 points is not a good short term sign for Democrats. Georgia remains the reddest purple state IMO.