UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[mileslunn]

If Truss is Campbell, who is Manning

Nigel Farage maybe as like Canada, there is even a party called Reform and Reform party in Canada was in single digits before campaign started and rose during campaign.

[Oryxslayer]

On discord I've been reminded of a post I wrote in 2019, so I'm going to quote it, partialy to collect accolades, but also to make what I think is a very important point.

This election, 2017, 2015 in Scotland, if they have shown one thing,  have shown that the electorate is incredibly volatile, and prior performance is no indication of future success. All current majorities are like the foolish man who built his house upon the sand, and could disappear tomorrow. Boris Johnson is not beloved now, and his support is conditional, but even if he was and it wasn’t there is no reason at all to doubt that Labour can win easily in 2024. No reason, that is, based on fundamentals and national conditions, plenty based on the track record of the Labour party.

If you consider yourself a serious follower of elections, as I believe most people on here do, you should never ever forget that politics is not a sports league, parties previous victories and vote totals do not accumulate allowing them to build an insurmountable lead. At each and every election their votes start from zero, and each one of those votes has to be earnt anew. This is especially true with the secular trend across western democracies towards increased swings and reduced party loyalties. Even after the biggest landslide, when everything seems most hopeless, there is no majority on earth so large that it necessarily takes 2 or 3 cycles to dislodge.

The Iron Law of electoral politics is that the pendulum always swings in both directions. There are unique conditions that can bias it's swings, such as in post-Civil War US, but it will eventually always swing in the other direction.


If there were people who believed in the thousand-year Boris Imperium, that's on them for their willful ignorance.

[brucejoel99]

Scene: Truss shakes hands with Queen.

Scratch

'Yup. That's me. You might be wondering how I got here...'

*"Baba O'Riley" starts playing*

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I've had Prime Minister Infinity runs where I'm trying to lose go better and more competent than this.

[sting in the rafters]

https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1575549657182511104?s=21&t=YHzmVx23r...

[Pericles]

Rishi Sunak's leadership prospects are greatly strengthened by Truss' policy platform being discredited, not just her political skills. He still has many liabilities so I'd say a Cabinet Minister is a better bet. Tory MPs should seriously look at having a coronation like in 2003, the membership can't be trusted with another vote and that process would further discredit the party. It is obviously pretty hard to see MPs being united enough to make that work though.

[Silent Hunter]

Scene: Truss shakes hands with Queen.

Scratch

'Yup. That's me. You might be wondering how I got here...'

*"Baba O'Riley" starts playing*

To me that's the theme tune to CSI:NY...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

In her few weeks as PM, Truss has killed off two previously indestructible ancient British institutions, first the Queen, then the pound.

Now she's going for her third, the Conservative Party.   

[MABA 2020]

Can't imagine this level of chaos lasting for two years, the party will have to tell Truss to u turn or threaten to remove her which will be a humiliating choice for Truss. Admit you entire economic philosophy and reason for being in politics is nonsense or become the shortest serving PM in history.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Guessing the Tory conference will be make or break for Truss-Kwarteng. But unless she absolutely bullheadedly refuses to reverse (entirely possible with her Thatcher cosplay personality) I think rebels would be satisfied with dumping Kwarteng and doing a U-turn on the mini budget. 3 PMs in a year would be a bit much.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Truss's cabinet is full of the overambitious grifter clowns too, so they'd probably begin to jump ship at some point within the next few weeks if this continues.

[JimJamUK]

Truss's cabinet is full of the overambitious grifter clowns too, so they'd probably begin to jump ship at some point within the next few weeks if this continues.

Many of these people wouldn’t get in another leader’s cabinet so not much point jumping ship (though that was said about Boris’ cabinet as well…).

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I feel bad for the British people but this is tremendous content.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Truss's cabinet is full of the overambitious grifter clowns too, so they'd probably begin to jump ship at some point within the next few weeks if this continues.

Many of these people wouldn’t get in another leader’s cabinet so not much point jumping ship (though that was said about Boris’ cabinet as well…).

Truss received the support of only 113 Conservative MPs in the leadership contest and was the first choice of 50 of them in the first ballot. Her support base has been narrow from the start.

[Хahar 🤔]

Guessing the Tory conference will be make or break for Truss-Kwarteng. But unless she absolutely bullheadedly refuses to reverse (entirely possible with her Thatcher cosplay personality) I think rebels would be satisfied with dumping Kwarteng and doing a U-turn on the mini budget. 3 PMs in a year would be a bit much.

What if it's just two PMs in a year?

In other words, how early could Boris Johnson conceivably return?

[NewYorkExpress]

Guessing the Tory conference will be make or break for Truss-Kwarteng. But unless she absolutely bullheadedly refuses to reverse (entirely possible with her Thatcher cosplay personality) I think rebels would be satisfied with dumping Kwarteng and doing a U-turn on the mini budget. 3 PMs in a year would be a bit much.

What if it's just two PMs in a year?

In other words, how early could Boris Johnson conceivably return?

Revenge of Theresa May!!!

[TheTide]

More YouGov findings:

Truss approval: 15/65
Kwarteng approval: 7/60
Government approval on the economy: 11/76

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

More YouGov findings:

Truss approval: 15/65
Kwarteng approval: 7/60
Government approval on the economy: 11/76

LOL someone is getting sacked

[IceAgeComing]

More YouGov findings:

Truss approval: 15/65
Kwarteng approval: 7/60
Government approval on the economy: 11/76

LOL someone is getting sacked

No chance: Number 10 is playing a much bigger role in economic policy now than they have for a while (certainly more than Boris ever did) and everyone knows this: so she'd have very little credibility in doing this and also it removes a key shield for her.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

More YouGov findings:

Truss approval: 15/65
Kwarteng approval: 7/60
Government approval on the economy: 11/76

LOL someone is getting sacked

No chance: Number 10 is playing a much bigger role in economic policy now than they have for a while (certainly more than Boris ever did) and everyone knows this: so she'd have very little credibility in doing this and also it removes a key shield for her.

There's a point though where any help gained from using Kwarteng as a shield is outweighed by the fact that he's almost comically unpopular. Downing Street could save face by just firing him after this bout of disaster and then put all the blame on him.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I feel bad for the British people but this is tremendous content.

It is genuinely horrifying but also very, very funny. As an aside, while I'm predictably furious about it all, it isn't actually on the usual ideological/partisan/etc grounds, so much as essentially patriotic ones: anger that these clowns are doing this to the country. And it isn't just me, I've seen this reflected pretty widely including from people who ordinarily would instinctively leap to the defence of a Conservative government out of habit...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As for Kwarteng: a) he is very close to Truss, shall we say, and this complicates matters in so many ways, and b) if he fell on his sword he'd likely be replaced with Chris Philp who is as implemented in this as he is and is somehow even worse in certain respects. Joy!

[Torrain]

Remember Truss told us she wanted to hit the ground from day one? The monkey’s paw is delivering…https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575795008711831553

[TheTide]

Imagine the year 1995, except that John Redwood is the Prime Minister and the economy is in the sh**t. And the cabinet is sh**t.

[CumbrianLefty]

When this is over, we need a reckoning with those who enabled it too.