UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

In all seriousness, I want Theresa May back.

[Lumine]

You'd think they would at least make an effort to poll higher than 200 seats at the next election...

[mileslunn]

Looking at just the politics of budget I don't get it.  Red wall gains weren't necessarily one off gains, levelling up and many of Johnson's moves had a real chance to make those permanent.  Sure due to fatigue of government they were going to lose some no matter what, but at least would be competitive in future elections.  Now with this, there is a possibility lose every single red wall seat and may make Tories toxic there for a generation.  Yes Tories can win without Red wall if they regain your upper middle class London seats, but that is a long shot and also is a very narrow path.  If only 330 or 340 seats winnable, majorities will be rare as rarely do parties win every single winnable seat.

And winning back or holding posh areas in London I am skeptical of.  For starters most with money tend to be economically literate and won't like collapsing pound so idea those with money only care about tax cuts and nothing else is false.  Never mind even in London, vast majority when will be paying more taxes according to IFS as despite bottom rate cut, refusal to adjust brackets with inflation means by 2026 those with less than £155,000 will be paying more and in no constituency do majority make that much.  Also London is much different than Thatcher era.  Back then it was only around 15% non-white, now closer to 40% and Tories have been stuck in 20s amongst BAME voters.  Never mind London is younger than most of UK and with current age gap also makes it tougher.  Back when Thatcher was PM, Tories led amongst under 40 voters, not trailing massively like now.  

Now yes if economy does take off, Truss may get lucky and win again.  But huge gamble as there is no serious economist who still believes in trickle down economics.  Yes most realize if taxes on rich are too high, they move elsewhere.  But few believe 45% is high enough to drive away talent.  50% maybe, but not 45%.  In fact where tried, all it does is lead to wealthy getting wealthier and less not more economic growth (see Bush vs. Clinton as former cut taxes for rich, latter raised them and growth much higher under Clinton than Bush).  So if UK economy does boom it will likely be in spite not because of Trusseconomics.  Nonetheless at least government can claim they are cause.

In fact I've heard so bad that many in city and business community would actually prefer a Labour government and that is quite something as normally both are reliable Tories.  Never mind only place where this tried multiple times is US and since US dollar is reserve currency, they can get away with all kinds of things no other country could.  They can run deficits higher than anyone else can be they spending or tax cuts for that simple reason.  

Still I don't think Tories will get wiped out.  Their vote is much more efficient than 1997 and with strong support amongst seniors who generally vote, I don't see them falling below 30% or 200 seats.  That being said, until recently Labour had no realistic path to a majority as needed Scotland and now big enough lead they could potentially win a majority with England alone.

Despite jitters, I suspect at least one or more MP has whip withdrawn, but I suspect number who vote down mini-budget of Tories will be in single digits so passes easily.  Interestingly enough Labour likely introduces amendment somewhat along these lines

1.  Windfall tax on energy companies to pay for price freeze
2.  Re-instate banker bonus limit
3.  Re-instate additional rate of 45%

Tories voting this down will look bad so if smart Truss would let members break ranks so gets rid of most offensive parts without having to backtrack personally.  But knowing her, MPs likely forced to vote this down and Labour will no doubt remind people of this come election time.  

[mileslunn]

You'd think they would at least make an effort to poll higher than 200 seats at the next election...

I think assumption is because Tory vote more efficient than in 1997 and still ahead amongst seniors who are more likely to show up, they will do so.  But fact its not a foregone conclusion is telling.

[mileslunn]

No election today so obviously results will be different but I am thinking if one held today would go like this by region

Scotland: SNP dominates, Tories wiped out, maybe lose all seats.  Labour picks up a few but not many

Wales: Labour dominates and Tories don't lose all seats, but fall to low single digits.  Plaid Cymru surges in votes but only gains a seat or two.

Northeast: Near Labour sweep.  Berwick upon Tweed and maybe Hexham only likely holds.

Northwest: Labour dominates but Tories hold a few safe rural constituencies.  LibDems hold current seat and maybe pick up Cheadle and Hazel Grove depending on how much tactical voting there is.

Yorkshire & Humber:  Labour dominates, but Tories hold the more rural ones like Sunak's seat (so Sunak would get his chance to run).

West Midlands: Labour gains a lot, but Tories still competitive and probably strong urban/rural divide.  Still seats like Stoke on Trent South, Dudley North, North Warwickshire would be interesting.  Uniform swing would still have Tories holding them, but unlike earlier, Labour at least has a chance to regain them but far from certain.

East Midlands: Labour narrow edge as sweeps all the marginals, but Tories still dominate the more rural parts, just not by the astronomical margins they did in 2019.

Eastern: Notwithstanding some polls, Tories still come out ahead there and thanks to concentrated vote, Labour just getting to 10 seats is probably a long shot. 

London: Labour wins big.  A few LibDem wins while Tories likely lose even most of the posh seats they were pandering to.  Extreme eastern edge which is very white but more working class is one part they hold onto.

Southeast: Mostly Tory, Labour wins in pockets but unlikely to beat Tories.  LibDems are wildcard as in Commuter Belt and rural constituencies, Labour is considered a bridge too far, but LibDems not.  If Starmer is seen as too risky, LibDem gains don't materialize but if not so scary some do.

Southwest: Mostly Tory with a few Labour pickups.  LibDems may gain some seats, but not like 2010.  The ancestral LibDem vote here is rural and fairly old so skeptical LibDems make big gains here.  But probably do better than uniform swing would suggest

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah, I think a 1997 Tory wipeout would have to come from a substantial Lib Dem rise or Reform (or whatever it's calling itself these days) finding Truss gov weak on immigration (one of the curious things about the current brand of Brexiteers in office is they genuinely believe immigration was incidental to brexit, and they have already signalled they want laws loosened as a result. Neither of which are impossible, but both LDs and especially Reform are not yet national forces.

As for Scotland, 2017 indicates that if people are relatively fine with Labour, a lot of seats can look awfully marginal.

[Pericles]

How the hell has Truss crashed the economy and investor confidence this fast? When Cummings referred to Truss as a human hand grenade, he was right on the money.

Cummings on Truss has turned out to be the ultimate case of... well..

He's often like that, he's actually a pretty smart guy but with a blindspot for his own flaws.

[Alcibiades]

Recent local and by-elections have indicated that anti-Tory tactical voting has increased hugely since 2019, so I certainly think things could start to spiral out of control pretty quickly for the Tories. In particular, I’m not sure I buy the Lib Dem vote being as low as it is in current polls, and I definitely don’t buy the Green vote being so high. Especially if there’s as much chaos with mortgages as seems very possible as a result of the current mess, I think the affluent Southeast could look a lot more orange…

[Blair]

Events and all but we’re seeing both the Conservative vote share fall to it’s nadir that it only reached briefly in January and Labour are pushing at 42-45%.On top on personal ratings both Keir and Labour are leading now, and on economic competence.

People forget that in 1997 the economy was relatively strong and while the ERM crash had happened people weren’t broadly in that bad a situation- the real kicker this time will be if mortgage holders get pushed over by high interest rates and a collapsing housing market. That’s when you see a real real drop in support for the Tories.

As Al has frequently said the British electorate over the past decade has been very elastic and these sort of financial events really pour fuel on it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Truss will speak to the nation tomorrow on... wait... the breakfast show on BBC Radio Tees?!?!

[JimJamUK]

Recent local and by-elections have indicated that anti-Tory tactical voting has increased hugely since 2019, so I certainly think things could start to spiral out of control pretty quickly for the Tories. In particular, I’m not sure I buy the Lib Dem vote being as low as it is in current polls, and I definitely don’t buy the Green vote being so high. Especially if there’s as much chaos with mortgages as seems very possible as a result of the current mess, I think the affluent Southeast could look a lot more orange…

The Lib Dem vote is low since Labour are on the up (leading to them gaining 25-30% of 2019 Lib Dem voters) while the ‘liberal’ Conservative vote was already an endangered species in 2019 so there isn’t much left to jump ship (and the sort of socially liberal people who voted Conservative in 2019 tend to be very economically right wing/middle class, so Trussonomics isn’t necessarily that alienating). The traditional ‘pissed off Conservative’ vote that has in the past gone their way is more likely to go Labour’s or don’t knows way these days (partisanship has broken down, the Lib Dem profiled themselves in a bad way in 2019 and have been invisible since etc).

[Boobs]

From a distance, it's almost impressive how brutally incompetent Truss is - some sort of amalgamation of the worst characteristics of Thatcher (without any intellect) or Reagan (without any charisma), on top of being particularly ill-advised. Like Æthelred, Elizabeth the Unready...

[Alcibiades]

Recent local and by-elections have indicated that anti-Tory tactical voting has increased hugely since 2019, so I certainly think things could start to spiral out of control pretty quickly for the Tories. In particular, I’m not sure I buy the Lib Dem vote being as low as it is in current polls, and I definitely don’t buy the Green vote being so high. Especially if there’s as much chaos with mortgages as seems very possible as a result of the current mess, I think the affluent Southeast could look a lot more orange…

The Lib Dem vote is low since Labour are on the up (leading to them gaining 25-30% of 2019 Lib Dem voters) while the ‘liberal’ Conservative vote was already an endangered species in 2019 so there isn’t much left to jump ship (and the sort of socially liberal people who voted Conservative in 2019 tend to be very economically right wing/middle class, so Trussonomics isn’t necessarily that alienating). The traditional ‘pissed off Conservative’ vote that has in the past gone their way is more likely to go Labour’s or don’t knows way these days (partisanship has broken down, the Lib Dem profiled themselves in a bad way in 2019 and have been invisible since etc).

The thing is I doubt you’ll see many Lib Dem voters switching to Labour in Con-Lib marginals, out of tactical necessity. I imagine that that swing will more be concentrated in places like the safe Labour Inner London seats where the Lib Dems increased their vote by a lot in 2019. Also I absolutely think Trussnomics will be alienating to those ‘liberal’ Tories; it’s basically utter crap for everyone, unless you’re earning over £150k (and even then…), and such high-earners make up only a small minority even in the most affluent of seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's honestly a real possibility - I will go no further! Simply a possibility - that the walls cave in on all sides.

[Blair]

The issue is the Government has been so hollowed out of critical friends- the Chancellor was appointed because he believes this rubbish and is a close ally, the Business Secretary sees this as the latest act in his regency drama, the Chief Sec is an ex junior minister, No.10 is staffed by Truss aides and a CoS who has to my knowledge never ran a government (he is a public affairs/elections type)

Add in sacking the chief civil servant at the Treasury and the fact the current cabinet secretary (the chief civil servant across Whitehall) has form for running a bad operation and well who is left to say no?

The best Governments have counterweights to stop the PM going insane.

We we’re role by several Conservatives this would happen including Michael Gove- who to his credit knows how these things work.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

The issue is the Government has been so hollowed out of critical friends- the Chancellor was appointed because he believes this rubbish and is a close ally, the Business Secretary sees this as the latest act in his regency drama, the Chief Sec is an ex junior minister, No.10 is staffed by Truss aides and a CoS who has to my knowledge never ran a government (he is a public affairs/elections type)

The said CoS apparently can't go to the United States because the FBI want him for alleged electoral fraud in Puerto Rico.

[mileslunn]

Recent local and by-elections have indicated that anti-Tory tactical voting has increased hugely since 2019, so I certainly think things could start to spiral out of control pretty quickly for the Tories. In particular, I’m not sure I buy the Lib Dem vote being as low as it is in current polls, and I definitely don’t buy the Green vote being so high. Especially if there’s as much chaos with mortgages as seems very possible as a result of the current mess, I think the affluent Southeast could look a lot more orange…

I agree Greens probably underperform but mainly due to skew heavily younger who have lower turnout.  Still could top 5%, but probably get in double digits in university towns and core urban constituencies which Labour is winning anyways.  And that might help Labour on voter efficiency as fewer 70%+ seats than in 2017. 

Reform UK likely goes nowhere although Truss easing immigration is interesting and may help them but I doubt they do as well as UKIP did in 2015.  Truss is easing immigration as very market oriented as most free market fundamentalist tend to be pro-immigration whereas most Brexiters especially in North want less.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

From a distance, it's almost impressive how brutally incompetent Truss is - some sort of amalgamation of the worst characteristics of Thatcher (without any intellect) or Reagan (without any charisma), on top of being particularly ill-advised. Like Æthelred, Elizabeth the Unready...

She almost seems like she is deliberately trying her best to make her Tory predecessors look positive in comparison, which is quite the feat (in less than a month too). The jokes about her being a Labour - or more fittingly, Lib Dem - plant abound...

[mileslunn]

From a distance, it's almost impressive how brutally incompetent Truss is - some sort of amalgamation of the worst characteristics of Thatcher (without any intellect) or Reagan (without any charisma), on top of being particularly ill-advised. Like Æthelred, Elizabeth the Unready...

Also trickle down economics was a novel idea in 80s that have never been tried whereas now it has been and best example of it flopping was Kansas experiment.

Thatcher did cut income taxes, but offset by VAT rises so yes made tax system less progressive, but wasn't funded through borrowing.  Also 83% and even 60% is probably too high.  Backlash to Osborne dropping additional rate from 50% to 45% was much more muted than current top rate cut.  

Reagan was a mix.  His first cut led to massive deficit which George HW Bush called voodoo economics in RNC race and they had to raise taxes to pay for it.  But at least top rate cut was 70% to 50% and you could more easily justify 70% as being too high.  Second Reagan tax cut got bipartisan support as yes cut income tax rates dramatically, but wiped out a lot of loopholes so actual amount wealthy paid was unchanged as many deductions and loopholes they had before were eliminated.  Kwarteng didn't do this.

Closest example in US was Bush tax cuts which were supposed to be self financing but were not and in fact economy grew much slower under George W. Bush than it did under Bill Clinton.  That is not to say tax cuts mean slower growth, just unless at prohibitive levels they have no impact either way.  Kennedy's tax cuts in 60s from 91% to 70% were example of trickle down working but then again that was probably a case where top rate was on wrong side of Laffer Curve.  

Had budget actually gotten ORB review I suspect markets would have been calmer.  But at same ORB would have also probably told government outright what they were doing was ridiculous thus why refused.  

[afleitch]

There's honestly a real possibility - I will go no further! Simply a possibility - that the walls cave in on all sides.

There are various means by which the Tories can carefully orchestrate their own exit strategy. It is apparent they don't really want to keep going until the term ends, because there's almost zero chance of a return to growth, or have another 'contest' as the MP's don't trust/like their own hollowed out membership who get to decide.

There's an appetite for opposition.

Labour are chipper because there's genuinely, a dawning inevitably where it matters, (press and business) that they will win. Starmer isn't stellar, but there can never be another 'Blair' because there will never be one nor does anyone want one (because looking back, personality wise, we're too jaded to see that style anything other than rightfully, 'cringe'.)

Labour can project anything they want onto him when the time comes because when the time comes, Labour will probably have to be more redistributionist and progressive in taxation than they let on. And the public have an appetite for that anyway, in part to the current governments 'fill your boots' action on COVID and energy bills (which first lifted Labour in the polls earlier this summer.)

The Bank of England and the IMF have taken the government out back to be shot.

It's when and how this happens that needs to be determined.

[mileslunn]

From a distance, it's almost impressive how brutally incompetent Truss is - some sort of amalgamation of the worst characteristics of Thatcher (without any intellect) or Reagan (without any charisma), on top of being particularly ill-advised. Like Æthelred, Elizabeth the Unready...

She almost seems like she is deliberately trying her best to make her Tory predecessors look positive in comparison, which is quite the feat (in less than a month too). The jokes about her being a Labour - or more fittingly, Lib Dem - plant abound...

I suspect some foreign leaders on left smiling as will use Truss as example in attack ads against opponent.  Trudeau who is struggling in polls probably will against Poilievre who while he is not giving much detail on tax and spending policy, he is like her very much a small government libertarian type.

In New Zealand, Luxon has promised to drop top rate from 39% to 33% and Ardern is trailing now so I bet she makes this comparison in next year's election.

In Spain, government is planning to hike taxes on wealthy and bet doing so to try and trip up popular party as it regional levels, right wing governments in Madrid & Andalusia scrapped wealth taxes so last ditch to try and prevent defeat (in case of Spain I don't think it will be enough).

In Canada and New Zealand it might work however.  In US Biden probably uses against whomever he faces in GOP race, but in US you have a much larger chunk of population who still buys into trickle down economics than in UK.  US is far more polarized and a lot blindly support whatever their preferred party does.  At least GOP probably does hit rich in blue states by making SALT cap permanent.

[mileslunn]

There's honestly a real possibility - I will go no further! Simply a possibility - that the walls cave in on all sides.

There are various means by which the Tories can carefully orchestrate their own exit strategy. It is apparent they don't really want to keep going until the term ends, because there's almost zero chance of a return to growth, or have another 'contest' as the MP's don't trust/like their own hollowed out membership who get to decide.

There's an appetite for opposition.

Labour are chipper because there's genuinely, a dawning inevitably where it matters, (press and business) that they will win. Starmer isn't stellar, but there can never be another 'Blair' because there will never be one nor does anyone want one (because looking back, personality wise, we're too jaded to see that style anything other than rightfully, 'cringe'.)

Labour can project anything they want onto him when the time comes because when the time comes, Labour will probably have to be more redistributionist and progressive in taxation than they let on. And the public have an appetite for that anyway, in part to the current governments 'fill your boots' action on COVID and energy bills (which first lifted Labour in the polls earlier this summer.)

The Bank of England and the IMF have taken the government out back to be shot.

It's when and how this happens that needs to be determined.

Dull and boring sometimes work.  Yeah Starmer is more like Biden than Trudeau, Ardern, or Obama.  But Biden won for same reason.  He is also somewhat like Olaf Scholz too who is dull and boring but non-threatening. 

On taxes, that will be interesting as wonder if they go for wealth tax or push additional rate up to 50% like it was under Brown.  But I suspect either done after elected as running on such will just alienate business community.  Mind you I suspect public would be okay with both.  And on 50%, Starmer could argue that it was too high when EU member due to free mobility of labour thus risk wealthy would leave, but now outside of EU that is no longer case.  Canada and Japan both have top rates over 50% and since neither has free mobility with any foreign country its why they can do so without major brain drain.  If Canada had free mobility of labour with US, there is no way our top marginal rates would be as high as they are now.

Also on nationalisation front, he seems to have found a way to pacify momentum types but not scare rest.  Not renewing rail contracts and bringing back into public ownership when they expire costs nothing and is quite popular.  For energy, he promises to create a new public one, not buy out existing ones like Germany is doing with Uniper or France with EDF.  Buying back grid and big five energy companies would be too costly so wise not to go there.  Also avoiding water and Royal Mail as most may think privatisation of those a mistake; cost of bringing back into public ownership way too high.

I guess on those two could buy maybe just a 10% stake and use profits to increase share.  But would take over a decade just to get to over 50% ownership and probably a generation to return to full public ownership doing this so not really worth it.  I do think though if Royal Mail or water companies go bankrupt, he would nationalise them.  Tories under Cameron did this with Network Rail.

[mileslunn]

This is for US and about GOP https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srJZHQHHT8g but could just as easily be applied to Truss.  Couldn't be applied to Johnson and not even Cameron.  I bet Truss and Kwarteng if just shown three myth parts would say they are fully true.  Not saying I fully agree with Robert Reich, but his attack on GOP could be just as easily applied to Truss only substituting names and party name and keeping every other word, word for word the same.

[beesley]

But really, don't you think we're due an apology from Keir Starmer, Keir Starmer's curry, Tony Blair, immigrants taking our jobs, lazy benefit seekers not taking up jobs, Jeremy Corbyn, the EU, Meghan Markle, Joe Biden, Nish Kumar, Femi, the BBC, Kim Jong-Un, the IMF, Owen Jones, Emmanuel Macron, John Bercow, gay couples on Strictly Come Dancing, Andy Burnham, the UN, Marcus Rashford, Hillary Clinton, free school meals, Gina Miller, lefty lawyers, Jameela Jamil, MerseyMike, Micheal Martin, booster jabs, Angela Rayner, Extinction Rebellion, Gary Lineker, Liz Cheney, MSNBC, the Greggs' vegan sausage roll, Sadiq Khan, Critical Race Theory, Justin Trudeau, Muslims, Beth Rigby, Ben & Jerry's, having a woman as Doctor Who, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Nicola Sturgeon, woke culture, Jack Monroe, Antifa, the RMT, GPs, Nancy Pelosi, Angela Merkel, Remainers, that traitor Rishi Sunak, Theresa May, the Lib Dems, Michel Barnier, 5G masts, vegans, Liverpool FC fans not singing the national anthem, doktorb, Communism, Barack Obama, Xi Jinping, Deborah Meaden, Steve Bray, the Guardian, Stormzy, multiculturalism, Dominic Grieve, Amnesty International, Adam Kinzinger, the Eurovision Song Contest, Adil Ray, Facebook, Channel 4 News, Will Smith, Jacinda Ardern, Ian Blackford, Chinese students, the changing rooms at Primark, Sussex Police, the French Border force, Caroline Lucas, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Daily Mirror, Ramsay MacDonald, Yanis Varoufakis, Sinn Fein, construction workers who don't eat fryups, the Enough Is Enough campaign, Diane Abbott drinking on a train, Gordon Brown, and the Bank of England, for causing this economic crisis?

[mileslunn]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/28/liz-truss-kwasi-kwarteng-tory-mps-sack-or-mutiny this suggests a lot of fury amongst Tory MPs.  Will be interesting to see if goes through and if all parts kept.  I suspect Truss and Kwarteng to double down but could be bad enough maybe no choice.  I even could see some Red Wall Tory MPs maybe thinking that voting for Labour amendments to strip most unpopular parts might be only hope at saving seats as if election they can at least say they personally didn't support this.