UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[afleitch]

Absolutely fascinating article.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1575756143401394176

The Tories, overnight, became the most economically right wing party in the developed world, despite their own voters being marginally left wing (by international comparison)

They have set sail away from their own voters.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Absolutely fascinating article.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1575756143401394176

>PiS and Fidesz left of Labour and the Democrats (and Labour is the more right-wing of the two???)

[Wiswylfen]

Absolutely fascinating article.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1575756143401394176

The Tories, overnight, became the most economically right wing party in the developed world, despite their own voters being marginally left wing (by international comparison)

They have set sail away from their own voters.

"The chart shows the Tories are the most economically right-wing major party relative to their *country's centre* according to political scientists." (the full explanation, as hinted at with "by international comparison", for anyone wondering) Still quite funny that Labour is placed to the right of Fidesz: The Rt. Hon. Victor Michael Borrowman MP (Lab., Winchester).

[icc]

Absolutely fascinating article.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1575756143401394176

The Tories, overnight, became the most economically right wing party in the developed world, despite their own voters being marginally left wing (by international comparison)

They have set sail away from their own voters.

"The chart shows the Tories are the most economically right-wing major party relative to their *country's centre* according to political scientists." (the full explanation, as hinted at with "by international comparison", for anyone wondering) Still quite funny that Labour is placed to the right of Fidesz: The Rt. Hon. Victor Michael Borrowman MP (Lab., Winchester).

Yeah, that is an incredibly misleading chart

[Torrain]

This has to be some sort of record, surely.

Source:
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2022/09/30/fee3a/1
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2022/09/30/fee3a/2

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/theshovel/status/1575389855873638400

[The Dowager Mod]

Even Larry doesn't want anything to do with her.
https://twitter.com/Cat_Headley/status/1575612283719278593

[afleitch]

Even Larry doesn't want anything to do with her.
https://twitter.com/Cat_Headley/status/1575612283719278593

'I don't know her.'

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1575894055636160515?s=20&t=E-Yan0OF...

[YL]

Rishi Sunak's leadership prospects are greatly strengthened by Truss' policy platform being discredited, not just her political skills. He still has many liabilities so I'd say a Cabinet Minister is a better bet. Tory MPs should seriously look at having a coronation like in 2003, the membership can't be trusted with another vote and that process would further discredit the party. It is obviously pretty hard to see MPs being united enough to make that work though.

If I were a Tory MP <shudders> I'd be trying to push for a change in the rules to remove the membership vote, at least when the party is in power.  Even when not in power it gave them IDS.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1575894055636160515?s=20&t=E-Yan0OF...

Would this constitute loss of supply or is this too minor an issue to meet that standard?

[Blair]

Worth noting this is very much the first proper political view normal people have had of Truss- she was a complete unknown among the public and she will be known for her fleeting appearance around the demise of HM and then for crashing the economy because she tried to do tax cuts for the ultra rich.

This last point was toxic- people knew she was helping bankers and cutting taxes for the rich and then they saw it destroy the economy.

It has been a disaster and shows why Boris never bought into this stupid ‘Singapore on the Thames’.

Her only way imho to turn around is to sack KK and appoint Coffey as Chancellor.

[Хahar 🤔]

Would this constitute loss of supply or is this too minor an issue to meet that standard?

To use the British term, Conservative MPs voting to deny supply to the government would be like turkeys voting for Christmas.

[Mike88]

More polling puts Labour at 50% or above:

Omnisis: (never heard of them before TBH)

55% Labour
23% Tories

PeoplePolling:

50% Labour
20% Tories

[Wiswylfen]

More polling puts Labour at 50% or above:

Omnisis: (never heard of them before TBH)

55% Labour
23% Tories

PeoplePolling:

50% Labour
20% Tories

They're new to political polling.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Worth noting this is very much the first proper political view normal people have had of Truss- she was a complete unknown among the public and she will be known for her fleeting appearance around the demise of HM and then for crashing the economy because she tried to do tax cuts for the ultra rich.

This last point was toxic- people knew she was helping bankers and cutting taxes for the rich and then they saw it destroy the economy.

It has been a disaster and shows why Boris never bought into this stupid ‘Singapore on the Thames’.

Her only way imho to turn around is to sack KK and appoint Coffey as Chancellor.

Agree with all of this. The really damaging thing for Truss is how bad a first impression the public have got from her.

[Torrain]

It’s notable that the insane Labour lead is no longer “a single poll”, but a trend replicated across most of the mainstream polling trackers:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575874214170484737

For context, the Wikipedia polling aggregate now looks like this:

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is 1995-96 level bad now:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1995

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It’s notable that the insane Labour lead is no longer “a single poll”, but a trend replicated across most of the mainstream polling trackers:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575874214170484737
For context, the Wikipedia polling aggregate now looks like this:

Jesus. There were some polls showing up to 55%?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It's worth mentioning that the national popular vote in 1997 and 2001 will severely understate Labour's support because turnout was quite low in Labour strongholds, not due to lack of enthusiasm, but due to a sense that Labour's victory was inevitable and that it would be pointless to vote. You also have to take into account tactical support for the LibDems. In the end, I suspect Labour's true level of support was in the high 40s to low 50s in 1997, just as surveys suggested. Overall, I think the seat counts reflect this more than Labour's 13 point lead would.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1575894055636160515?s=20&t=E-Yan0OFI7weC3rkXyJFUA

Would this constitute loss of supply or is this too minor an issue to meet that standard?

There’s not a simple answer to that… I can try and give an outline, but it’ll be fuzzy around the edges.

The Commons voting down the Trussenomics package wholesale (with the final vote killing the bill) would likely represent a loss of confidence. That would require at least 35 Tory MPs torpedoing their careers, and breaking a three line whip, in the knowledge that they would likely be deselected, which would be unprecedented. If that were a possible outcome, Truss wouldn’t call a vote on it in the first place.

The Goodall proposal probably isn’t that though - here an amended version of the package, stripped of the least popular Kwarteng proposals via bipartisan amendments (likely sponsored by a Tory grandee to avoid procedural issues) would be passed by the Commons. That’s still wild, but at least half-way plausible.

An amended budget would be humiliating for Truss, but wouldn’t necessarily be read as a loss of confidence (May arguably suffered worse defeats). Westminster will however be very febrile if the Government can’t pass an unamended budget, so things could start moving pretty fast, and produce some extreme outcomes.

Please - take all of this with several pinches of salt. Financial procedure in the Commons is notoriously complex, and I don’t have a copy of Erskine May to hand, so this might be full of holes. If anyone’s got a better idea of the conventions here, I’m more than happy to eat crow (again).

*

One final point. While financial bills and King’s Speeches are defacto confidence motions, any bill can be turned into an official confidence motion, as a nuclear option to get it passed. John Major famously turned the Maastricht Treaty bill into a confidence motion to force his MPs to vote for it. If Truss bundled the measures into a single bill, with a confidence rider added, she would get enough votes to pass it by default (see Xahar’s comment about turkeys voting for Christmas), but sacrifice a ton of political capital, and the final shreds of political goodwill left.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

It's worth mentioning that the national popular vote in 1997 and 2001 will severely understate Labour's support because turnout was quite low in Labour strongholds, not due to lack of enthusiasm, but due to a sense that Labour's victory was inevitable and that it would be pointless to vote. You also have to take into account tactical support for the LibDems. In the end, I suspect Labour's true level of support was in the high 40s to low 50s in 1997, just as surveys suggested. Overall, I think the seat counts reflect this more than Labour's 13 point lead would.

The BBC exit poll in 1997 had Labour on 47%, which was technically inaccurate but probably a good indicator of their support at the same time, for the reasons you say.

[Torrain]

Jesus. There were some polls showing up to 55%?

YouGov has Labour on 54% and Omnisis has Labour on 55%

[Frodo]

Jesus. There were some polls showing up to 55%?

YouGov has Labour on 54% and Omnisis has Labour on 55%

Even if polls on Election Day in 2024 return to Earth, at the very least Labour should be taking back its old strongholds in northern England. 

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Assorted thoughts that I have:

• putting too much stock in crosstabs is always a mistake but what we see in crosstabs now compared to crosstabs last month suggests that working class support for the Tories is non-existent now, which is exactly what you'd expect to happen. Genepool Tories are almost never working class and these are the only people who'd pledge themselves to this disgraceful government.
• something in Keir Starmer's recent statements reminds me of Tony Blair at his best in the mid-1990s. By this, I mean that Keir Starmer appears to represent "the center ground" of normal, patriotic people while pledging to end class war waged on the working class. All of this works very well now because the mini-budget is actually a form of class war.
• I still think a lot of Labour's messaging appears as canned nonsense now. Perhaps it reflects the whiplash of the moment but their slogan should not be "a fairer, greener future". They should be leaning into patriotism now, promising to revive the country. I suspect this is coming soon.
• If you watch Labour's broadcasts from 1997, they could simply be ran again, all of them. History has repeated itself somehow, albeit with a few tweaks, a few different events. If you elect Tories, they'll destroy public services, cause increases in crime, social disorder and so on. They'll run disastrous social experiments and disregard fundamental economic sense.