2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

What do people make of the Colorado turnout numbers?  They look horrendous for Republicans so far.  Cory Garner is definitely losing.

Democrats   380,589
Republicans   207,086
No Party Affiliation   311,269

Yeah, Colorado is probably one of the few places where this year is pretty much like every other year, correct? These #s look horrific for the GOP.

Yeah.  Republicans keep saying "ground game" over and over again but in states that are basically all mail ballots like CO, NJ, etc., their numbers are horrible.  And Colorado has what was supposed to be a battleground senate seat, at least it was when Republicans were building this allegedly amazing voter turnout operation. 

I'm starting to think the red wave ground game talk is just yet another con from the party of pathological liars.

[wbrocks67]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318609760988659714
I hope Dems can close the gap a bit as VBM is progressing along nicely

I mean, given Dems ginormous mail ballot lead, even them just keeping it relatively close in in person early vote seems like a win at this point.

[Lief 🗽]

What do people make of the Colorado turnout numbers?  They look horrendous for Republicans so far.  Cory Garner is definitely losing.

Democrats   380,589
Republicans   207,086
No Party Affiliation   311,269

Yeah, Colorado is probably one of the few places where this year is pretty much like every other year, correct? These #s look horrific for the GOP.

Yeah.  Republicans keep saying "ground game" over and over again but in states that are basically all mail ballots like CO, NJ, etc., their numbers are horrible.  And Colorado has what was supposed to be a battleground senate seat, at least it was when Republicans were building this allegedly amazing voter turnout operation.  

I'm starting to think the red wave ground game talk is just yet another con from the party of pathological liars.

In my experience, ground game is mostly useless in high profile races and campaigns who say their ground game is going to have a major effect on the race are full of sh[inks]. And this is true of both parties (remember when Bernie’s army of volunteers knocking on thousands of doors a day was easily swept aside by Biden’s non-existent campaign?).

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318615937323462656

[compucomp]

What do people make of the Colorado turnout numbers?  They look horrendous for Republicans so far.  Cory Garner is definitely losing.

Democrats 380,589
Republicans 207,086
No Party Affiliation 311,269

Yeah, Colorado is probably one of the few places where this year is pretty much like every other year, correct? These #s look horrific for the GOP.

Yeah.  Republicans keep saying "ground game" over and over again but in states that are basically all mail ballots like CO, NJ, etc., their numbers are horrible.  And Colorado has what was supposed to be a battleground senate seat, at least it was when Republicans were building this allegedly amazing voter turnout operation.  

I'm starting to think the red wave ground game talk is just yet another con from the party of pathological liars.

The fact that the Republicans are now talking "ground game" is flat out hilarious when in 2016 the Democrats were proclaiming that Trump couldn't overcome Hillary's ground game and that didn't work out at all, and at that time the Republicans were crowing that persuasion >>> ground game.

That's not even taking into account that this year many people might even take offense to someone knocking on their door due to the pandemic.

[The Mikado]

What do people make of the Colorado turnout numbers?  They look horrendous for Republicans so far.  Cory Garner is definitely losing.

Democrats   380,589
Republicans   207,086
No Party Affiliation   311,269

Yeah, Colorado is probably one of the few places where this year is pretty much like every other year, correct? These #s look horrific for the GOP.

Yeah.  Republicans keep saying "ground game" over and over again but in states that are basically all mail ballots like CO, NJ, etc., their numbers are horrible.  And Colorado has what was supposed to be a battleground senate seat, at least it was when Republicans were building this allegedly amazing voter turnout operation.  

I'm starting to think the red wave ground game talk is just yet another con from the party of pathological liars.

In my experience, ground game is mostly useless in high profile races and campaigns who say their ground game is going to have a major effect on the race are full of sh[inks]. And this is true of both parties (remember when Bernie’s army of volunteers knocking on thousands of doors a day was easily swept aside by Biden’s non-existent campaign?).

Also, if Democrats don't have a ground game, why do I get two texts a day asking me to contact my non-voting friends (as if) to go vote?

Within the last week, I've been contacted by Vote Tripling, MoveOn, the Texas Democratic Party, Stand Up America, Powered By People, the Hegar campaign, and the Allred campaign. Before I voted it was all "Make sure you vote," after I voted all "make sure your friends vote."

For some reason people think that Dem GOTV doesn't exist this year. If that's you, do you even have a phone?

[Holmes]

I'm also getting a lot of texts and I'm in California and a non-voter.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wayne County (MI) numbers starting to look good.  276k votes in.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm in Massachusetts and have already voted, but somehow the Biden campaign figured out that I'm Catholic and has been sending me emails and texts about phone banking into "heavily Catholic [read: WWC] areas of Western Pennsylvania". The idea that there's no Biden GOTV is absurd.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/MD.html

The Maryland numbers are pretty stunning. 

I think it's pretty clear that Trump is going to lose the popular vote by a wide margin.  I'm guessing double the margin he lost to Hillary at a minimum.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/MD.html

The Maryland numbers are pretty stunning. 

I think it's pretty clear that Trump is going to lose the popular vote by a wide margin.  I'm guessing double the margin he lost to Hillary at a minimum.

Republicans show up in full force every Election Day. Dems in Iowa had a huge lead going into 2018, but it was more than erased on Election Day.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm also getting a lot of texts and I'm in California and a non-voter.

I've gotten a text every 2-3 days to phonebank. Either from Biden, Bernie, or County Democrats people

[Red Wall]

Battleground Texas? Doesn't feel like it
https://twitter.com/BruinEric/status/1318582956152156162?s=19

[soundchaser]

Target “Smart”? Doesn’t feel like it. (It’s been pointed out numerous times already in this thread that their modeling is way off at best.)

[redjohn]

Battleground Texas? Doesn't feel like it
https://twitter.com/BruinEric/status/1318582956152156162?s=19

Doesn't TX have open primaries and therefore no partisan registration?

[Bootes Void]

Battleground Texas? Doesn't feel like it
https://twitter.com/BruinEric/status/1318582956152156162?s=19

TargetSmart is absolute trash. Bury it in the ground and absolutely burn it

[GeneralMacArthur]

What I really want to see is Texas getting to 6.5 or 7 million early votes.

In that case, if the Biden/Trump ratios we've seen from polls hold, Biden would win unless turnout substantially exceeds 2016 in Trump's favor on election day.

[LimoLiberal]

Ignore TargetSmart. Ignore TargetSmart. Ignore TargetSmart.

It should be banned from this thread.

[Tender Branson]

What I really want to see is Texas getting to 6.5 or 7 million early votes.

In that case, if the Biden/Trump ratios we've seen from polls hold, Biden would win unless turnout substantially exceeds 2016 in Trump's favor on election day.

That’s exactly the posts that I’m warning you guys of ...

The early vote is not a monolithic bloc in favour of Biden !

We don’t know who these voters are, how many independents voted and how they voted !

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris County thinks the final early vote will be higher than the 2016 cumulative vote, but that seems too optimistic to me unless we get a few more 100K days next week. We would need about 600k more for that to happen.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1318580883167825925

Whatever is happening in Texas is completely wild and certainly a change from the status quo, and a change in the status quo in Texas is not good news for Republicans in this environment.

Imagine Texas gets called for Dems on Election Night.

It would all be over right then and there.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Some caveats for todays TX update

- Day 7 in 2012/2016/2018 took place on a Sunday, so not much gains for them today.
- From here on, I'll be comparing the current vote totals to the total votes in 2016. As well, how the 2016 votes looked compared to the total 2012 votes at this time.
- 2012/2016/2018 had 2 weeks of early voting while this year while this year will have 3 weeks. Not to mention, the 24-hour precincts in Harris County on October 29.


Day 7 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 19)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   415,778     20.8%
2016:   566,741     25.4%  (47.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   506,356     21.7%
2020:   719,840     29.0%  (54.9% of 2016 turnout)

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   245,349     20.8%
2016:   326,149     25.3%  (45.9% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   323,553     24.2%
2020:   389,793     27.9%  (51.4% of 2016 turnout)

TARRANT COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   231,398     23.7%
2016:   299,106     27.8%  (49.0% of 2012 turnout)  
2018:   276,727     24.7%
2020:   317,682     26.2%  (47.5% of 2016 turnout)

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   207,594     22.6%
2016:   273,248     26.1%  (53.2% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   241,751     22.0%
2020:   313,310     26.3%  (53.1% of 2016 turnout)

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:   117,653     18.6%
2016:   223,768     30.9%  (57.8% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   216,112     27.9%
2020:   270,218     31.6%  (57.7% of 2016 turnout)

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   119,785     26.1%
2016:   188,861     35.2%  (62.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   182,125     31.4%
2020:   237,260     36.6%  (65.7% of 2016 turnout)

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    92,545     23.9%
2016:   137,607     29.6%  (56.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   135,972     27.3%
2020:   205,744     36.4%  (68.9% of 2016 turnout)

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:     52,997     13.8%
2016:     90,809     21.2%  (52.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     89,301     19.6%
2020:   114,852     23.5%  (53.7% of 2016 turnout)

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     95,425     28.1%
2016:   127,922     31.7%  (58.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   121,642     28.2%
2020:   141,241     29.3%  (53.9% of 2016 turnout)

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     60,739     19.9%
2016:     87,291     25.8%  (62.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     72,685     20.1%
2020:     98,773     25.2%  (57.0% of 2016 turnout)

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     58,179     23.0%
2016:   101,718     33.9%  (62.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   104,937     31.5%
2020:   140,583     37.3%  (69.2% of 2016 turnout)

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     72,236     27.3%
2016:     92,039     29.5%  (53.2% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     85,158     25.5%
2020:     95,424     25.8%  (46.6% of 2016 turnout)

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     49,083     26.5%
2016:     65,752     31.6%  (59.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     58,910     27.7%
2020:     76,271     33.4%  (62.1% of 2016 turnout)

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     22,325     12.4%
2016:     36,615     18.5%  (47.6% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     33,918     16.4%
2020:     52,232     23.9%  (56.7% of 2016 turnout)

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     34,099     17.8%
2016:     42,239     21.2%  (44.0% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     41,965     20.5%
2020:     60,701     28.7%  (58.1% of 2016 turnout)

[Non Swing Voter]

Harris County thinks the final early vote will be higher than the 2016 cumulative vote, but that seems too optimistic to me unless we get a few more 100K days next week. We would need about 600k more for that to happen.

I think there could be a second wave of voters as the election gets really close. 

[Bootes Void]

What I really want to see is Texas getting to 6.5 or 7 million early votes.

In that case, if the Biden/Trump ratios we've seen from polls hold, Biden would win unless turnout substantially exceeds 2016 in Trump's favor on election day.

That’s exactly the posts that I’m warning you guys of ...

The early vote is not a monolithic bloc in favour of Biden !

We don’t know who these voters are, how many independents voted and how they voted !

Yeah we know but generally higher turnout is good for Biden especially in the urban areas. There are alot of Democrats who live in Texas but have never voted because the state was never competitve

[GeneralMacArthur]

What I really want to see is Texas getting to 6.5 or 7 million early votes.

In that case, if the Biden/Trump ratios we've seen from polls hold, Biden would win unless turnout substantially exceeds 2016 in Trump's favor on election day.

That’s exactly the posts that I’m warning you guys of ...

The early vote is not a monolithic bloc in favour of Biden !

We don’t know who these voters are, how many independents voted and how they voted !

The most recent poll I could find showed that, of voters who planned to vote early, 57% Biden and 43% Trump.