2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread (user search)
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  2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 166574 times)
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,682
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« on: September 21, 2020, 03:47:06 PM »



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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2020, 02:56:40 PM »

Seems like the early vote numbers aren't increasing all that much lately.  When are large amounts of ballots/early votes expected to come in? 
there is over 255 thousand votes, obsviously I dont know how we could compare it to other years but it doesnt seem like things are slowing down.
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2020, 09:21:34 PM »

When can we start extrapolating anything from this? 

In 2016, extrapolating from NC and FL's early vote is literally what led some of us to believe Clinton had the election in the bag. We know that with a pandemic, we have nothing at all to compare it too. There is simply nothing to be done with this information.

In NC , I remember hearing that black turnout was low and that was not good news for clinton, and I also remember hearing they are slight lagging or at even compared to 2012. I did hear that fixed up by election day.

Florida was messed up, I do remember something like 28% of republicans voting for Clinton which I though was ridiculous.

That being said early voting can be a helpful indicator for enthusiasm but also look for polls, fundraising, on the ground operations and whatnot
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2020, 09:23:03 PM »



Quote
In her ruling, Marmolejo acknowledged the burden the decision could put on local and state election officials, who will have to recalibrate voting machines or reprint ballots. But she reasoned that the potential harm for those suing, including the Texas Association for Retired Americans, was “outweighed by the inconveniences resulting.”

What's wrong with rhis, people should be more independent minded
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2020, 06:37:47 PM »


The concern trolling about enthusiasm between Trump and Biden has to be worst take at this election. They shouldnt ask are you enthusiastic about Biden or Trump but rather are you enthusiastic about voting?
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2020, 09:05:37 AM »

Worrying numbers for Democrats in North Carolina detailed in this thread.



Democrats lead in requests and returned, but of the ballots returned by Republicans, 7% are first-time voters. Just 5% of the ballots returned by Democrats are the same.

WWC surge?
It's hard to make anything of early voting
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2020, 10:09:46 AM »

Black turnout rate of 16% so far among Dem friendly sample isn't great for Dems though.

is this early voting or mail in voting as well. People should be skeptical of early voting results.
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2020, 01:39:36 PM »

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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2020, 10:59:42 PM »

I think people here are forgetting that an equally large numbers of R's will vote more than D's on Election Day and if the pattern holds from the Aug party, in person early voting will lean R

Maybe your right but it should blow the whole "enthusiasm" issue that you hear about about biden. I cant deny the fact that dems are voting early cause they are motivated. 
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2020, 12:05:41 PM »

NC early vote has only 15% of AA vote (2016 AA vote was 20%) and white vote is up since 2016 - does this sound concerning? given biden's shift to white voters this might still net out to trump + 3 atm but does this raise any red flags?
it's just absentee, in person early voting hasnt happend yet  which is where you might see more AA support
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2020, 10:21:38 AM »

48.9% of Dane county's absentee ballots have been returned; 30% of 2016's total turnout in a county that will be among Biden's best performance in the state.

is there early in person voting in Wisconsin. I could easily see it surpass 100% turnout of 2016 before election day at this rate.
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2020, 04:20:04 PM »

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

Updated Florida numbers!

Dems 160k lead. 

Palm Beach breaks 100k
Broward at 73k
Hillsborough at 71k

Still basically nothing from Miami
Could be 200k lead by tommorow and 500k lead in a week at this rate
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2020, 08:25:17 PM »

For Nevada definitely follow Ralston. He isn't blinded by partisanship like some of the state "experts" or reporters.
Actually Ralston is fairly liberal but he's generally fairly objective and fair and doesnt do dumb hot takes like cohn or wasserman or concern troll
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2020, 02:30:54 PM »

Florida Turnout Update (all VBM)

DEM: 562,554
GOP: 309,776
OTHERS: 206,847

TOTAL: 1,079,177

Dems have a 252,778 registration advantage
Will reach 500k in a few days and perhaps close to 800k when in early in person voting is accounted for
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2020, 12:30:49 PM »

While I am happy with the turnout so far, I feel like the trend is slowing down a bit.  Maybe I'm overanalyzing, but I was expecting 1 million ballots a day by now approaching 2 million a day by Monday.  Turnout is still high but I expected it to explode a bit more given how many states are now open for voting.
Some people may vote in person. There is also the issue of how much can mail can be delivered and processed
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2020, 02:02:23 PM »


So is this good or bad and what does this mean?
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2020, 02:24:31 PM »

could this backfire because the Democrats have been turning them in quickly whereas the GOP has a lot of outstanding ballots?

It wouldn't be the first or even second time recently that WI Republicans have kneecapped themselves in an attempt to suppress the Democrat's chances of winning.

do we still think Democrats have an advantage in WI given the turnout in Dane and Milwaukee so far?
Yup Dems are returning their ballots in a higher rate with stronger turnout from Dane and other blue counties
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2020, 12:32:08 PM »

Will any state reach more than 100% of 2016 turnout before election day?
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #18 on: October 10, 2020, 01:35:02 PM »

I think Democrats will get the coveted 600k vote lead in Florida before Election Day...  still not sure where 600k came from though...

I am very hesitant to assume anything from EV reporting, other than this is likely to be one of the highest turnouts overall in the modern era.  Election day could be near unanimous for Trump in states with no-excuse EV and VBM.
Some polls have shown almost half of Biden supporters will vote in person or in person election day, so it may not be as lopsided.
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #19 on: October 11, 2020, 12:28:57 PM »

Florida Democratic early vote lead now around 360k

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

At this rate it probably will hit the 600k number in a couple weeks.

This seems quite stunning, especially since aren't FL Dems notorious for not returning their ballots in slow fashion?
Florida Dems have Trump as their motivator, not the state party of course
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2020, 08:27:46 PM »


Are republicans turning out in the same numbers? i've been hearing from people the turnout is pretty good for both sides.

Milwauke, Dane and a few blue counties have fairly strong turnout numbers but we dont know what the total turnout will be
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2020, 08:54:32 PM »

We should wait for a couple days before we start to analyze. There will also be alot of republicans voting on election day due to trumps request
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #22 on: October 14, 2020, 12:12:29 AM »

damn a day or two ago it was under ten million, now its 13 million. things are speeding up
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #23 on: October 14, 2020, 08:14:31 PM »

If Harris County gets 1.7 million votes, can Biden win 1 million votes in the county?

clinton got 700k from this county but Biden can get up to 1 mill fairly easily if the enthusiasm continues
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iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2020, 09:19:35 PM »

Florida could be 700k lead for dems before election day if this holds up. i remember people saying 500 k would be sufficient but that will be reached easily
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