2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Lief 🗽]

Why are these great lakes swing states having so much trouble having the count mostly complete on election night when it seems like pretty much all the sunbelt swing states are going to have the votes counted on election night? I don't know if it's the GOP since most of these sunbelt states are and have been under GOP control for a while.

Well this is the first year that counting ballots ahead of time has been a partisan issue. This is also the first year that most Midwestern states are doing mail-in voting on a large scale, so there are kinks to work out that don't exist in the Sun Belt states that have more experience with it.

[Minnesota Mike]

Over 50,000 votes already today in Broward County. Big day for absentee returns across Florida as ballots dropped in drop boxes at Early Voting Centers are counted.

[wbrocks67]

Over 50,000 votes already today in Broward County. Big day for absentee returns across Florida as ballots dropped in drop boxes at Early Voting Centers are counted.

This would appear good for Dems, no?

[Minnesota Mike]

Over 50,000 votes already today in Broward County. Big day for absentee returns across Florida as ballots dropped in drop boxes at Early Voting Centers are counted.

This would appear good for Dems, no?

Yep.

[Ferguson97]

Is this true

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1318658250909323266

If it is, I did some quick math to work out how much Trump would need to rule by if those numbers keep up.

(tl;dr, Trump needs a minimum of 61% of the vote among people who haven't voted yet in order to win.)

If there are 5,500,000 voters in Ohio (roughly the same as 2016)...

And 41% have already voted, that's 2,255,000 voters.

If Biden has won 61% of them, then that's 1,375,550 "locked in" votes for him. And if Trump's at 34% then he has 766,700 "locked in" votes.

With 59% voters left to go (or 3,245,000 voters), if Trump wins by the narrowest possible margin (2,750,001 for Trump vs 2,749,999 for Biden) then he would need to win 61% of the remaining voters himself. That's for just a nail biter. If he wins a larger percentage of future voters than 61%, then he wins. If he gets anything below that, then he loses to Biden.

[Non Swing Voter]

Is this true

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1318658250909323266

Doesn't appear to be. Election Project is showing Ohio at 21% of its 2016 vote total (not even all registered).  It might be a little delayed but not that delayed...

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/OH.html

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1318667697610199047

41% of likely voters.  Even still, doubtful, unless they are projecting turnout to be LOWER than 2016.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1318669827943301122

[GP270watch]

 That twitter headline was abysmal. 41% of Ohio to 41% of the less than 1,000 respondents in our poll.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: As of the 5 PM update, 189,417 votes were cast on Tuesday.

This includes 143,086 in-person votes and 46,331 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,129,413 in-person & 757,735 by mail, for a grand total of 1,887,148 (45.30% of 2016 total vote).

Georgia's EV total has officially surpassed Clinton's 2016 vote total.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Over 60k in Harris County as of 5pm, on track for another 70k day.

Travis at 28k, will easily surpass yesterday’s 31k.

My hope for Travis County is to have at least 500k banked by end of EV (they will cross the 300k mark today), and add at least 100k on Election Day. That would set Biden up to net 300k+ out of there in addition to Harris.

[Non Swing Voter]

That twitter headline was abysmal. 41% of Ohio to 41% of the less than 1,000 respondents in our poll.

Rasmussen is a joke

[wbrocks67]

Georgia's turnout is insane as much as TX's is.

[Non Swing Voter]

Georgia's turnout is insane as much as TX's is.

I've always thought Georgia will vote to the left of North Carolina and this makes me feel more confident of that.

[wbrocks67]

Also fascinating - the black return rate (82%) is actually higher than the white return rate (75%) in SC

Not to mention, the fact that both are already at 3/4+

[Asta]

Steve Schale regarding Florida:

"For historical purposes, yesterday:
VBM: 150,907 votes (Dem +12,132)
Early: 366,406 votes (Dem +261)
In total, 3,025,778 have voted, and D's hold a 482,762 voter edge."

"Republicans will "win days" in early voting.  For context, there are about 450K more GOP voters with voting history in the 16 and/or 18 elections than there are Democrats left to vote in that cohort.   In other words, their pie of certain to nearly certain voters left to vote is simply bigger - so it becomes a math question more than anything. "

[SenatorCouzens]

Just a reminder, Steve Schale, analyzing the early vote, predicted Democrats would win the big races in Florida in 2014, 2016, and 2018. So be careful with his analysis.

[Bootes Void]

The races in 2014,2016 and 2018 were all extremely close but yes people should keep this in mind.

I mean on paper, the numbers look good for Dems but obviously you'll never know how those individuals will vote

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

We still got a half hour of voting in Texas, but looks like Williamson County will finish around 14,500 in-person votes today. For comparison, they had 10,850 votes on this day 4 years ago

That puts them around 154,780 votes or 76% of the 2016 turnout

[Non Swing Voter]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1667359942

about 31% of registered Democrats in Florida have already turned out.  crazy.

[philly09]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1667359942

about 31% of registered Democrats in Florida have already turned out.  crazy.

How many of those are Panhandle Dixiecrats/DINO?

[It’s so Joever]

We desperately need some polls of those who have already voted in Harris and Denton counties.

[philly09]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1667359942

about 31% of registered Democrats in Florida have already turned out.  crazy.

Dems have a 516k lead in VBM, and a 473k lead overall.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1667359942

about 31% of registered Democrats in Florida have already turned out.  crazy.

How many of those are Panhandle Dixiecrats/DINO?

Probably not all that many as the turnout is higher in real Democratic counties.  I am still looking for turnout overall anyways, in 2018 Dems turned out less then GOP voters.  If Dems can stay even this time I think they'll win even understanding some are DINOs.

[Holmes]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1667359942

about 31% of registered Democrats in Florida have already turned out.  crazy.

How many of those are Panhandle Dixiecrats/DINO?

You can click on the “VBM Returned” and “In Person Early Vote” tabs and take a look at the panhandle counties. There are columns for Democratic and Republican turnout.

edit: wow, I also just realized you can scroll to the right on the “Turnout Summary” tab and it has the breakdown for each county. 🤦‍♂️