Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

Jiji poll on LDP Prez election (LDP voters)

河野太郎(Kono Taro)                 35.6
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)           17.9
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)          12.1
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)                 1.2

Kono seems to be headed to a ~55% victory based on this poll. He will be lucky to get 55% of the 383 LDP chapter vote.  The LDP chapter electoral vote are allocated by LDP party members per prefecture which means which means rural conservative prefectures will be overrepresented while urban greater Tokyo areas will be underrepresented.   If that is the case then Kono has to win at least around 45% of MPs to win a majority on the first ballot. So far it seems he is far from that. 

Another hope Kono would have is if he faces Takaichi as opposed to Kishida in the second round where he most likely will win given how unelectable Takaichi's brand would be in the general election.  But this poll seems to indicate that this is unlikely. 

So the most likely scenario is a Kono vs Kishida in the second round which would most likely result in a Kishida victory.

[Boobs]

Must be embarrassing for Abe that Takaichi is polling so poorly and in 3rd.

[jaichind]

Must be embarrassing for Abe that Takaichi is polling so poorly and in 3rd.

Well, Abe himself is not that popular with the LDP grassroots when he is not the incumbent.  In the 2012 LDP Prez race he won 29% of the LDP chapter vote to 55% for Ishiba.  He only beat Ishiba in 2012 because the race was forced into the second round where Abe had an edge with an all MP vote.

Also I am not sure Abe is really backing for Takaichi  to win.  He must know that she will be an electoral liability for the LDP in the general election which means she is unlikely to win anyway.   I think Abe is doing this to test the waters on how many LDP MP are willing to vote for a candidate from the Far Right.  I suspect that Abe is looking to split the Hosoda faction into forming a Far Right faction since he does not completely control the Hosoda faction.  The MP vote for Takaichi   will represent a sense of how big this faction could be before Abe makes such a move.  A large Far Right faction controlled by Abe will cement his power as a LDP kingpin for another decade.

[jaichind]

First LDP Prez debate at the Tokyo Press Club



As it is customary each candidate has to write up his/her campaign theme.  It had to be handwritten as part of an unwritten rule that a leader should be cultured in the literary arts including calligraphy.

河野太郎(Kono Taro):  "温" or Warmth
野田聖子(Noda Seiko): "愛" or Love: She is going all woke
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio): "天衣無縫" or "Devine made clothing which is without gaps".  This is from a Chinese story written in the Sung Dynasty about a man that had a romantic experience with a devine seamstress from the heavens who then made a shirt for him that was perfect and had no gaps.  The real meaning in Chinese literary tradition is to mean a plan that is so comprehensive as to be without flaws.  So he is saying that he has a failproof plan for Japan.
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae): "崇高雄渾" or "Sublime morality of sacrifice and sound as powerful as the sky".  Another term of ancient Chinese origins mostly from the Warring States period (specifically the Kingdom of Chu).  It basically a call of moral and physical regeneration of polity with a return to glory.  In other words she is using an ancient Chinese term to call for "make japan great again" with greatness not just in physical power but also moral revitalization.

The choose of words also conveys the relative social views with 河野太郎(Kono Taro) and 野田聖子(Noda Seiko) choosing modern terms while 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) and 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) choosing the terms with ancient literary tradition and showing off their own mastery of ancient literary traditions.

Certainly from my point of view I would easily back 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)'s "崇高雄渾".  That same term has been use in recent Chinese politics as part of a push for the revival of Greater China.   I almost cried when I saw  "崇高雄渾" as it is the exact term I have in mind when I think about my Chinese ultranationalist views and goals. Its is so wonderful to see if being used in a Japanese political context.

[jaichind]

More LDP Prez polls

Kyodo (LDP supporters)

河野太郎(Kono Taro)                 49
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)           19
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)          16
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)                 3


Mainichi (LDP supporters)

河野太郎(Kono Taro)                 50
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)          25
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)           14
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)                 3

Looking at the google doc tracking declared LDP MP support

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1syUoJ7PY7PXhluY1VF62aO7lKMzKl2-I6Xd2RxweyNA/edit#gid=0

Out of 382 LDP MPs 241 has declared and 141 have not.  Out of the 241 declared it is

河野太郎(Kono Taro)                 76
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)           84
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)          60
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)               21

Note it is now 382 LDP MPs and not 383 LDP MPs.   This is because retiring 竹下亘(Takesh**ta Wataru) leader of the 竹下(Takesh**ta) faction and half-brother of a former LDP PM  just passed away.

It seems even as a door closes to Kono winning (winning a majority on the first round which seems unlikely) another opens (Takaichi makes it to the second round as opposed to Kishida.)  As it is it is still more likely Kishida makes it to the second round than Takaichi.  Another Kono path is for him to win close to 60% of the LDP chapter vote making it to embarrassing for LDP kingpins (read Abe) to colluded to take it away from him in the second round.

[jaichind]

PR voting intentions curve.  With LDP Prez race eating up all media attention LDP (Green) surges to Spring 2021 levels while CDP (Blue) and other parties holds steady.  LDP surge does come a bit at the expense of KP and JRP but mostly comes from undecides.




With LDP+KP at around 45 I expect that this translate to a LDP-KP PR vote share of 47%-48% which would be a jump from around 45% in 2017.  But I expect this trend to reverse a bit once the LDP Prez race is over and media coverage shifts back to the opposition in the run up to the general election.

[jaichind]

Another LDP Prez poll

NNN (LDP supporters)

河野太郎(Kono Taro)                 40
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)           21
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)          15
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)                 5

[jaichind]

Given various LDP kingpin stop Kono at all costs position the map of the LDP Prez race to the 2020 Dem primary would be

河野太郎(Kono Taro)  = Sanders
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) = Biden
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) = Buttigieg
野田聖子(Noda Seiko) = Warren
Abe = Obama

The basic idea is to let Kishida and Takaichi fight it out to be the establishment candidate but make sure Noda stays in the race to split Kono's support.  Then consolidate in the second round around one candidate pro-establishment candidate (most likely Kishida) to defeat Kono in the second round.

[jaichind]

It is interesting to break down the 246 declared LDP MPs by Lower House and Upper House from

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1syUoJ7PY7PXhluY1VF62aO7lKMzKl2-I6Xd2RxweyNA/edit#gid=0

                                          Total    Lower House   Upper House
河野太郎(Kono Taro)                 78          69                    9
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)           84          61                   23
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)          63          47                   16
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)               21          11                   10

Kono is much weaker with Upper House MPs than Lower House.  The next Upper House elections are in 2022 and 2025 so there are a lot lower re-elect pressures on Upper House MPs where Lower House MPs have reelection pressures with general elections just weeks away.  Kono's relative strength with Lower House MPs reflect the view that Kono will most likely bring in the most votes for LDP in the general election.   But Kono is not sweeping Lower House MPs which does show that reelection pressure is not the only factor but one of many.

[jaichind]

My back-of-the-envelope guess on LDP Prez results

                                             MP        LDP Chapter       Total
河野太郎(Kono Taro)               125              215               340
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)         140                85               225
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)          90               70                160
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)               27               12                  39

Leading to Kono-Kishida second round.  Only MPs vote second round and for the LDP chapter vote each of the 47 prefectures has one vote each which is the winner of the LDP chapter vote in the prefecture in the first round.

Abe-Takaichi de facto endorses Kishida while Noda de facto endorse Kono.  Kono's faction leader Aso mostly stays neutral and as a result vast majority of pro-Takaichi MP shift to Kishida leading to

                                            MP          LDP chapter      Total
河野太郎(Kono Taro)              165               44                209
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)        217                 3                220

Which is a narrow  Kishida victory despite Kono sweeping, as expected, the the LDP chapter vote.

I think if Kono can do better than my projections by a few percentage points  for the LDP chapter vote then the second round anti-Kono consolidation might not take place since it would look very bad for the LDP kingpins to go against what the grass roots want by a large margin.  If so Kono should at this stage focus less on winning MPs and more on public appearances to push up his vote share for LDP chapter vote.

[jaichind]

Noted journalist 大濱崎 (Ohama Saki) google doc of announced LDP MP
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1syUoJ7PY7PXhluY1VF62aO7lKMzKl2-I6Xd2RxweyNA/edit#gid=0

now has it at out of 382 LDP MPs 252 has declared and 130 have not.  Out of the 252 declared it is

河野太郎(Kono Taro)                 78
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)           88
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)          65
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)               21


Mainichi's survey of LDP MPs has

河野太郎(Kono Taro)                 95
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)         120
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)          80
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)              

which is a good deal worse for Kono.  It is worse in two ways.  First the gap between Kono and Kishida is bigger in this survey and the gap between Takaichi  and Kishida is also bigger which rules out Kono facing Takaichi in the second round as opposed to Kishida.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll for LDP Prez (LDP supporters)

河野太郎(Kono Taro)                 41
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)           22
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)          20
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)                 6

Big lead for Kono but he needs at least 55% of the vote if not more to get to a situation where the LDP kingpins would be too intimidated to move in organize a stop Kono consolidation in the second round.  Noda seems critical to stopping Kono from getting that sort of vote share.  As per this poll Kono might fall below 50% which would be a big blow for Kono.  Sorts of feeds into the conspiracy that Abe is really behind the Noda getting into the race and finding her the 20 LDP MPs to back up so she qualifies to enter the race.

[jaichind]

What a LDP party member ballot for LDP Prez looks like.  This vote is for 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae).  Just like a general election ballot you have to write the name of the candidate and not just check off a box.  As long as the list of candidates does not have duplicate last names it is good enough to write the last name only.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14443730

"JCP lawmaker and train buff accused of trespassing"

This story is pretty sad.  I am no fan of JCP but to start legal action against a JCP MP for a crime that tens of thousands must commit every day in Japan's large train system clearly makes it seem politically motivated.

[jaichind]

FNN poll for LDP Prez (LDP supporters)

河野太郎(Kono Taro)                 55.8
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)           17.6
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)          16.4
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)                 2.9

Kono landslide territory.  These are the numbers Kono needs to get to ensure the fix is not in for the second round.

[jaichind]

Reading various US sellside research reports it seems that foreign investors are mostly pricing in a Kono victory.  I think that is a mistake. What they are doing is looking at the polls and concluding that Kono should win. What they seem to be missing is that the LDP leadership race is not like a USA primary.  LDP Leadership race is a USA convention where superdelegates hold half the votes and if no one wins a majority only superdelegates get to vote in the runoff.  Under these rules Kono has a reasonable shot but his victory is by no means assured.

[jaichind]

Several of the candidates has shifted their views in response to the leadership contest.  These shifts gives you a sense of their strategy. 

河野太郎(Kono Taro) has toned down his anti-nuclear and pro-female emperor position.  He knows his route to defeat is being see as being out of the LDP mainstream.  So he choose to tone down his positions where they do not align with the LDP grassroots.  I think this is a mistake as it damages his brand of "a different type of politician."

岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)  has shifted to a more conservative social position.  This is mostly because he sees 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)  has his short term threat and he needed to make sure that LDP social conservatives do not consolidate behind her.  He has to create some distance between himself and Kono on social issues to give social conservatives a reason to vote for him.

高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) seems to be pushing the anti-PRC line.  Her position is that if she does not become PM then Japan will become an economic and then political vassal of PRC.  Not sure if this will fly but she did decided to zero in on Kono and Kishida as being "fake hawks" on the PRC issue.

野田聖子(Noda Seiko) has become much more socially liberal than her previous position.  Not sure this makes any sense.  Running as Japan's AOC wins you 3% in the LDP Perz race.  She is running as LDP leader and not CDP leader.  I do not thing running as Japan's AOC wins you the CDP leader either.  I suspect she feels she has low name recognition and is trying to create a brand for herself so her influence increase in the LDP in the future as the leader of the woke flank.

[jaichind]

Somewhat strange pictures from the 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) camp.  It seems 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)   likes to print out tweets of her supporters and read them on a wall.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What happens if Kishida wins?

[jaichind]

What happens if Kishida wins?

Good question.  I have been thinking about this since this is a realistic possibility.  First if Kono leads LDP that is bad for JRP but good for DPP.  If Kishida leads LDP then it is bad for DPP but good for JRP.  In fact the LDP Leadership races is really JRP (Kono) vs DPP (Kishida) vs hardcore right LDP (Takaichi) vs CDP (Noda.)  Just shows how big of a tent the LDP big tent party is.

I think LDP seat count by leader would be

Suga 215-235
Kono 240-260
Kishida 230-250
Takaichi 215-275

I think the way Kono ran the campaign damaged his brand of being a different type of politician and the chances of him leading the LDP to a seat count of above 260 is mostly gone.  Kishida would run as a traditional LDP leader which should be good for at least 250 seats.  But it seems that if Kishida does win the LDP Prez race it would be in the runoff against a Kono that won the LDP chapter vote.  The sense that the fix was in for Kono would damage Kishida somewhat and limit the seats he can bring to the LDP to be more like 240.  Takaichi  would be a wildcard.  Her hard right views could trigger a anti-LDP turnout (remember that Abe was also hard right but his wife had a moderate image which blunted the anti-right vote surge.)  But her tell it like it is with no filters approach could also bring out marginal non-ideological voters and bring LDP to a large seat haul.  

The general election that would be the most fun would be if Takaichi leads the LDP and the most boring if Kishida leads the LDP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interesting that Kono is basically not much of a difference at all from Kishida in seat count at this point.
Would the support bases also be different? Kono doing better in urban Kansai and Kanto, Kishida in countryside areas?

[jaichind]

Interesting that Kono is basically not much of a difference at all from Kishida in seat count at this point.
Would the support bases also be different? Kono doing better in urban Kansai and Kanto, Kishida in countryside areas?

Mostly because people do not vote by ideology beyond some rough alignment but instead their reading of the truest they have in the leader.  So Kono style of not a normal politician could have had a large impact on the LDP campaign but I think that dulled somewhat with his recent flip flops.

My rule of thumb is that ideology makes a difference in the PR vote so if Kono leads LDP JRP will suffer in the PR vote just like if Kishida leads the LDP DPP will suffer in the PR vote.   In the more decisive district vote local factors and leader image makes a bigger difference.  I think the LDP Prez campaign has harmed the image of both Kono and Kishida and have throw away a bit of the LDP bonus for getting rid of Suga.

[jaichind]

According to

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/485fa904c77159470027c0f5086017ebe9022ed1

It seems the Kishida camp is getting more and more concerned that Takaichi is cutting into his MP and LDP grassroots vote.  They figure that there is a path for Takaichi  to beat out Kishida for second place to face Kono in the second round.  If that were to take place Abe is going to go into hyperdrive to try rope every LDP MP he knows to get Takaichi elected over Kono with it being unknown if that would be enough but will be fun to watch since Kishida in such a situation might make a deal with Kono.

[jaichind]

Noted journalist 大濱崎 (Ohama Saki) google doc of announced LDP MP
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1syUoJ7PY7PXhluY1VF62aO7lKMzKl2-I6Xd2RxweyNA/edit#gid=0

now has it at out of 382 LDP MPs 258 has declared and 124 have not.  The rate of public endorsements have slowed down dramatically.  The changed from last weekend are in brackets.

河野太郎(Kono Taro)                 80 (+2)
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)           91 (+3)
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)          66 (+1)
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)               21

[jaichind]

Latest Mainichi survey on LDP party member vote

河野太郎(Kono Taro)               Low 40s
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)         High 20s
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)        Low 20s
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)            Single digit

河野太郎(Kono Taro) very strong in Tokyo suburbs and ahead in 31 out of 47 prefectures
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)  ahead in 広島(Hiroshima) (his home prefecture) 茨城(Ibaraki) 静岡(Shizuoka) 8 prefecture in all
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)  ahead in 奈良(Nara) (her home prefecture) 福井(Fukui) and 滋賀(Shiga) (next door to her home prefecture of 奈良(Nara))
野田聖子(Noda Seiko) has a fighting chance in her home prefecture of 岐阜(Gifu)

This is a very positive poll for Kishida.  Kono is being held below majority.  It was also assumed that out of the 47 prefectures in a likely second round vote Kishida would lose to Kono something like 42-5.  This poll shows Kishida would get at least 8 if not more.

This type of result would most likely means that the LDP elders would have the free hand to come in and give Kishida the win in the second round.