Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[CascadianIndy]

https://twitter.com/jijicom/status/1423785719714095105

Multiple candidates looking to jump into the LDP leadership race this September.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/jijicom/status/1423785719714095105

Multiple candidates looking to jump into the LDP leadership race this September.

Most of the people mentioned either belong to small factions or does not even belong to a faction.  I believe if when I see someone that can command the backing of most of 細田(Hosoda), 二階(Nikai), or 麻生 (Asō) factions or someone like 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) that can appeal across multiple factions.  Anything else would only wound Suga but not remove him in a LDP leadership contest to come.  Of course most of them will end up being stalking horses preparing for a more serious candidate to come.

[jaichind]

Good chart of PR vote 2009-2019

Red - LDP
Dark Pink - KP
Dark Orange - JRP
Light Orange - YP (defunct)
Very dark Blue - HP/DPP
Dark Blue - DPJ (defunct)
Light Blue - CDP
Very Light Blue - PLP/LP (Ozawa parties - merged into CDP)
Dark Green - SDP
Light pink - RS
Purple - JCP




Note that LDP always outperforms on PR slate in Upper House elections (2010 2013 2016 2019) because in Upper House PR ballot you can vote for a person in addition to a party. Given LDP's advantage in terms of political talent LDP tends to get more votes than it deservers on the Upper House PR ballot,  On the flip side, small parties tend to underperform in Lower House PR since the threshold to get seats are higher in Lower House elections creating an incentive for small party supporters to vote tactically.

[jaichind]

Asahi poll has Suga cabinet approval breaking 30%




Suga Cabinet approval/disapproval 28(-3)/53(+4)

PR vote

LDP    35 (+1)
KP        5 (-1)
JRP       7 (-1)
DPP      3 (+2)
CDP    15 (+1)
RS        1 (-1)
SDP      0 (-1)
JCP      6 (--)

The good news for Suga is LDP PR support is holding steady and Suga cabinet disapproval at 53 is not terrible which means that drop-off in support for Suga cabinet are mostly LDP disgruntled voters that can be won back.

[jaichind]

Asahi poll pushes Suga cabinet approval curve close to falling below the critical 30% mark

[jaichind]

横浜市(Yokohama) mayor race on Aug 22 official candidate list is out.  There are 8 candidates and 7 of them are serious candidates.



Going from top left and moving rightward

1) 太田正孝 (Ota Masataka) - CDP member of city assembly.  Has a 1970s-1980s anti-Tanaka LDP splinter NLC background and was in Ozawa's LP in the 1990s.   Not running with CDP support but will cut into the official CDP-DPP-Rengo candidate.  Opposed to IR casino plan.
2) 田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) - Was governor of 長野(Nagano) and was the found/leader of anti-postal reform LDP splinter NPN.  Has been part of JRP since NPN wound up.   Opposed to IR casino plan.
3) 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) - LDP MP of 神奈川(Kanagawa) 3rd district.  Resigned his seat to run.  Has de facto support of a good chunk of the LDP-KP organization.  Surprisingly opposed to IR casino plan given official Suga and LDP support of the IR casino plan.
4) 福田峰之(Fukuda Mineyuki) - former LDP MP of 神奈川(Kanagawa) 8rd district.  Will split from the LDP vote. Came out in support of the IR casino plan.

On the bottom left to right
1) 山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) - Has background in public health administration which I guess comes in handy during the COVD-19 crisis.  Official CDP-DPP candidate with implicit JCP support
2) 林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) - Pro-LDP incumbent from 2009.  LDP is not backing her this time due to her trying to run for a 4rd term which goes against LDP policy of only backing 2 terms for local executive positions.  She should still rope in a lot of LDP-KP votes.  Is for IR casino plan. 
3) 松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) - Has the longest resume of all the candidates running.  Was a Center-Right DPJ MP before becoming governor of 神奈川(Kanagawa).  After serving two terms shifted to the far right and was part of YP where he was elected to the Upper House and then PFG after YP became defunct.   He won re-election in 2019 for Upper House running as JRP.  Is against the IR casino plan.

In theory the IR casino plan should be the dominate issue which given how unpopular it is should make it hard for the pro-IR casino plan incumbent 林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) from winning.  But with 5 serious anti-IR casino plan candidates the anti-IR casino plan vote will be split.  I think 林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) should have the edge.  Her main risk is that she wins with less than 25% of the vote would invalidate the election and create the need for another election.

[jaichind]

Latest NHK poll has Suga cabinet approval/disapproval at 29(-4)/52(+6)



This is a record low for cabinet approval since LDP swept into power in late 2012.  Again the disapproval rate does not seem as bad given the approval rates which is a tiny sign of hope for Suga that there are some hidden Suga cabinet supporters out there.

[jaichind]

Ashai magazine came out with the latest lower house projections by two journalists 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) and 角谷浩一 (Kakutani Koichi).  I am yet to find their seat by seat projections yet.  松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru)'s projection is a bit worse for LDP than his projection for FNN back in mid July

松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) projection

              District   PR      Total
LDP          154       59      213
KP               7       19        26
JRP             11      20        31
DPP             5         2         7
CDP         101       57      158
RS              0          2         2
SDP            1          0         1
JCP             2        17       19
Ind.            8                    8    (I suspect pro-LDP anti-LDP will be split 4-4 here)

角谷浩一 (Kakutani Koichi)

              District   PR      Total
LDP          181       54      235
KP               6        23       29
JRP            10       18        28
DPP             3         8        11
CDP           76       53      129
RS              0         0         0
SDP            1         1         2
JCP             2       19       21
Ind.          10                  10    (I suspect pro-LDP anti-LDP will be split 4-6 here)



Historically 角谷浩一 (Kakutani Koichi) always had a pro-LDP lean.  In the Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections he projected LDP to win 50 seats which was not out of the mainstream guess but higher than most.

Both projections are fairly negative on DPP district seats (at 5 and 3 each) when I think DPP should be a lock for 6 district seats.   松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru)  has DPP has 5 seats.  If I had to guess he most likely has DPP failing to pick up 茨城(Ibaraki) 5th.  As to how you get to DPP to 3 seats as 角谷浩一 (Kakutani Koichi) claims I find it hard to figure out.  He might be counting on a couple of DPP incumbent retirements.  DPP does hold three seats with a LDP lean but a strong personal vote.  Perhaps he feels two of them will retire ?
 
Both seem very negative on KP district seats as well (7 and 6).  Both having JCP at 2 seats seems to indicate that both think JCP will defeat KP in 東京(Tokyo) 12th which would be a shock.  角谷浩一 (Kakutani Koichi) having KP at 6 district seats seems to indicate that he feels that KP will lose both 北海道(Hokkaido) 10th and 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd.

角谷浩一 (Kakutani Koichi) is much more positive on KP PR vote than 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) whose projection of 19 PR seats for KP is a disaster for KP.  It is telling that both projections has the LDP PR vote barely above CDP PR which is a shock.

Hopefully I will be able to find the district-by-district projections by these two journalists.

[jaichind]

First poll on 横浜市(Yokohama) mayor race by Asahi

LDP MP 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) and backed by LDP-KP ahead of CDP-DPP candidate 山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) with incumbent 林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) third.  The rest (including two ex-governors) does not seem to have much of a shot.



It seems 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō)'s move to oppose IR casino plan has been able to get some of the anti-IR casino plan vote as well as the core LDP-KP vote to be ahead for now.

[jaichind]

Suga approval curve looks a lot more like the short lived PMs than Koizumi and Abe II.

[jaichind]

Kanagawa News did a poll for  横浜市(Yokohama) mayor 8/13-8/14 and unlike Asahi found CDP-DPP-SDP candidate 山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) well ahead of LDP MP 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) backed by part of LDP-KP with incumbent 林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) in third.

It seems the race will become a 2 way battle between LDP MP 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) backed by part of LDP-KP and CDP-DPP-SDP candidate 山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu)

[jaichind]

A third poll for 横浜市(Yokohama) mayor election has it neck to neck between LDP MP 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) backed by part of LDP-KP and CDP-DPP-SDP candidate 山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) with the incumbent 林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) well behind in third place followed by the two ex-governors.   The split of the LDP vote into pro- and anti- IR casino plan is giving the CDP-DPP-SDP candidate a chance.

[jaichind]

More polls roll in for 横浜市(Yokohama) mayor election. All of them have a narrow lead for  CDP-DPP-SDP candidate 山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) over LDP MP 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) backed by part of LDP-KP.

[jaichind]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inside-Japanese-politics/Time-is-tight-for-Kono-and-his-goal-to-shift-political-landscape

"Time is tight for Kono and his goal to shift political landscape"

Nikkei article on Taro Kono and the opening he has.  It also reports that he is leaning against challenging Suga in the upcoming LDP Prez race although falling Suga approval might change those calculations. 

I think Kono and Koizumi junior are going to be game changers for the LDP if either one becomes LDP Prez and could lead the LDP-KP to a landslide victory.  Anyone else would mostly replicate the results Suga will most likely get for the LDP in the general election.  With Koizumi junior clearly too young to run that only leaves Kono.

[kaoras]

Even if Suga manages to stay on for the elections, isn't almost sure that he will be kicked out mid-term? What incentives does he have to stay on?

[jaichind]

Even if Suga manages to stay on for the elections, isn't almost sure that he will be kicked out mid-term? What incentives does he have to stay on?

I think if LDP falls below majority by itself in the upcoming election Suga is out right away.  Even if he does a bit better then that there will still be pressure for him to go.  Suga clearly is betting on LDP doing better than expected and losing only a handful of seats relative to 2017.  If he does that then he will be secure for the rest of his LDP Prez term of 2021-2024 and also as PM by implication.

[jaichind]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/08/18/national/politics-diplomacy/japan-election-may-delayed-november-covid-19-crisis-dents-sugas-popularity/

"Japan election may be delayed to November as COVID-19 crisis dents Suga's popularity"

Suga points out that
a) He will run for LDP Prez which is end of Sept
b) No Lower House election while emergencies are in place which means most likely the general election will be in Oct if not Nov

[jaichind]

My current guess on 横浜市(Yokohama) mayor election of 8/22

山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP)                               31%
小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP)                                 27%
林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support)                  20%
松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) (ex-governor of 神奈川(Kanagawa))   7%
田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) (ex-governor of 長野(Nagano))                    6%
Rest                                                                                             9%

[jaichind]

One other reason why 横浜市(Yokohama) mayor election is important is that Suga's own district is in 横浜市(Yokohama).  So if LDP ex-MP 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) which is the candidate Suga is backing loses that is a major embarrassment for Suga. 

It is interesting that both Suga and main de facto rival Taro Kono are based out of 神奈川(Kanagawa).  So are the Koizumi clan although the Koizumis and Taro Kono are not based out of Yokohama like Suga is.

[jaichind]

On a per capita basis Japan COVID-19 infection numbers are now higher than Brazil and Mexico and around the same as Russia.

[jaichind]

下村博文 (Shimomura Hakubun), haed of the LDP policy unit, threw his hat into the ring for LDP Prez.  He is a MP from Tokyo an a member of the large 細田(Hosoda) faction with Abe is associated with.  He actually had a NLC (LDP splinter) background in the 1980s and became an independent associated with the DSP when LDP merged back into the LDP.  DSP was a SPJ Right wing splinter and was both anti-LDP and anti-JCP.  DSP can be viewed as a cross of proto-DPP and proto-JRP.  Anyway after being elected to the Tokyo Metropolitan assembly in 1989 as a pro-DSP independent he then joined the LDP.

It is not clear how much support he actually has from the 細田(Hosoda) faction but it is said that Abe continues to back Suga which should be a clear signal on how the rest of the 細田(Hosoda) faction will go.

下村博文 (Shimomura Hakubun)'s enemies area already circulating on the internet 下村博文 (Shimomura Hakubun)'s 1989 campaign posters with slogans that were cleared aimed at targeting the anti-LDP vote  

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2FK2G3

"Most Japan firms want Suga out of power despite Olympics success: Reuters poll"

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the latest possible day for the Lower House election?

[jaichind]

There seems to be complete silence in the various LDP kingpins on the upcoming LDP Prez race.  All of them seems to be waiting for the 横浜市(Yokohama) mayor election results this Sunday.  If Suga's candidate 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP) loses then there might be dramatic action with some heavyweight opponents to Suga to emerge and perhaps Suga being pressured not to run.

All things equal despite significant behind the scenes effort by Suga pro-LR LDP vote support for 林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support)  has not shifted to 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP).  There are also signs that some of the LDP and JRP base are shifting toward the two ex-governors 松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) (ex-governor of 神奈川(Kanagawa)) and 田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) (ex-governor of 長野(Nagano)).  All this seems to indicate that chances are that 山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP) is more likely than not to win.  If so that will be a massive blow for Suga who seems to have thrown a lot into this race these last two weeks.

[jaichind]

What is the latest possible day for the Lower House election?

Nov 28th which is 30 days from when the last date the diet has to be dissolved.  That date seems more and more likely since holding the election before end of Sept LDP Prez race is pretty much out of the question.