Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

Early voting for 横浜市(Yokohama) mayor election is up 40%.  If this is indicative of a surge in turnout that would be bad news for pro-LDP candidates and good news for pro-opposition candidates.

[jaichind]

横浜市(Yokohama) mayor election is on track to be 5% or higher than 2017.  2017 turnout was actually above average.   2009 turnout was super high because it was held the same day as the 2009 general elections.  The 2009 election was the year 林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support) was first elected as an anti-LDP candidate beating out the pro-LDP candidate and the JCP.  It was in 2013 she was co-opted into taking a pro-LDP position.



All things equal turnout is on track to reach a non-2009 record high.

[jaichind]

Final 横浜市(Yokohama) mayor election projection based on higher turnout


山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP)                               32%
小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP)                                 26%
林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support)                  18%
松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) (ex-governor of 神奈川(Kanagawa))   9%
田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) (ex-governor of 長野(Nagano))                    7%
Rest                                                                                             8%

[jaichind]

As of 6PM turnout in 横浜市(Yokohama) mayor election already hit 40% and most likely hit around 47% when it is all said and done.

[jaichind]

Leaked exits so far seems to indicate that 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP)  and 林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support)  are underperforming and 田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) (ex-governor of 長野(Nagano))   overperforming with 山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP) well ahead.

[jaichind]

Turnout at 7:30PM at over 45% with final turnout most likely around 48% versus 37% in 2017.  The extra 11% turnout clearly will lean anti-LDP.

[jaichind]

NHK calls it for 山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP)  as polls close. 

[jaichind]

横浜市(Yokohama) mayor election  exit polls has Suga cabinet approval/disapproval 24/64.  Wow, and  part of the city is Suga's own district.

[jaichind]

NH Exit polls.  Eyeballing has

山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP)                               37%
小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP)                                 21%
林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support)                  13%
田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) (ex-governor of 長野(Nagano))                   12%
松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) (ex-governor of 神奈川(Kanagawa))  10%



Utter disaster for LDP.  小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP) + 林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support) would have still lost to 山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP)

[jaichind]

There are now a reasonable chance that Suga might be forced out of running in the end of Sept LDP Prez race.  He will for sure face heavyweight opposition if he runs.  I can see 河野 太郎(Kōno Tarō) jumping into the race.

[jaichind]

Local media outlet exit poll has

山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP)                               35.2%
小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP)                                 22.2%
田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) (ex-governor of 長野(Nagano))                   12.7%
林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support)                  11.7%
松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) (ex-governor of 神奈川(Kanagawa))    8.4%
福田峰之(Fukuda Mineyuki) (former LDP MP)                                     4.8%
太田正孝 (Ota Masataka) (former CDP city assembly member)            3.2%

With 田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) (ex-governor of 長野(Nagano))  surging into third place !!

[jaichind]

Frankly to turn around the LDP ship to win in the Nov general elections it is not enough for Suga to be gone.  What is needed is something like Koizumi 2001 which showed it was a completely different LDP.  Most possible candidates out there seems like just Abe-Suga 2.0 and are unlikely to get a much different result than if Suga was in charge.  The way to to achieve something like 2001 Koizumi are Kono Taro and Koizumi Junior.  With Koizumi Junior being to young to get past the tenure sensitive LDP MPs the only choice is Kono Taro.

[jaichind]

JNN exit polls shows LDP vote was split between 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP)  and 林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support) with some defections to 山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP) and the other candidates. 

It was the KP vote that loyally consolidated around 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP). 

Generally anti-LDP independent voters as expected went heavy for 山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP) and the other candidates.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll has party support at

LDP        33
KP           4
JRP          2
DPP         1
CDP       15
JCP          4



Like JNN exit poll LDP vote was splintered between all the major candidates with 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP) winning only around 40% of the LDP vote.  KP loyally voted for 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP) while JRP vote was also splintered.  The Center-Left Opposition parties and JCP clearly went  山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP) while the anti-LDP independents leaned 山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP) with  田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) (ex-governor of 長野(Nagano)) outperforming with independents.

[jaichind]

With 36% of the vote counted

山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP)                               33.0%
小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP)                                 24.4%
林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support)                  14.5%
田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) (ex-governor of 長野(Nagano))                    11.2%
松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) (ex-governor of 神奈川(Kanagawa))  11.0%
福田峰之(Fukuda Mineyuki) (former LDP MP)                                     2.8%
太田正孝 (Ota Masataka) (former CDP city assembly member)            2.2%

At this stage of the count where votes are only reported if they are over a certain threshold the minor candidates are undercounted

[jaichind]

With 61% of the vote counted

山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP)                               32.7%
小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP)                                 22.0%
林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support)                  14.4%
田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) (ex-governor of 長野(Nagano))                    12.3%
松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) (ex-governor of 神奈川(Kanagawa))  11.1%
福田峰之(Fukuda Mineyuki) (former LDP MP)                                     3.5%
太田正孝 (Ota Masataka) (former CDP city assembly member)            2.7%

[jaichind]

With 80% of the vote counted

山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP)                               33.7%
小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP)                                 22.0%
林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support)                  13.8%
田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) (ex-governor of 長野(Nagano))                    12.4%
松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) (ex-governor of 神奈川(Kanagawa))  11.0%
福田峰之(Fukuda Mineyuki) (former LDP MP)                                     3.4%
太田正孝 (Ota Masataka) (former CDP city assembly member)            2.5%

[Logical]

https://bunshun.jp/denshiban/articles/b1521
Good article from the Bunshun. Suga's current plan is to dissolve the House immediately on September 6 after the Paralympics end. That way he can avoid the leadership election and bring his case directly to the Japanese people. Kono Taro's main obstacle is that his maverick behavior isn't well liked among the LDP power brokers. Desperate times calls for desperate measures, the next 2 weeks will be critical.

[jaichind]

https://bunshun.jp/denshiban/articles/b1521
Good article from the Bunshun. Suga's current plan is to dissolve the House immediately on September 6 after the Paralympics end. That way he can avoid the leadership election and bring his case directly to the Japanese people. Kono Taro's main obstacle is that his maverick behavior isn't well liked among the LDP power brokers. Desperate times calls for desperate measures, the next 2 weeks will be critical.

I think it might be too late for that.  Such a move will be seen as opportunistic and be viewed as irresponsible given the COVID-19 surge and will lead to a defeat of the LDP.  Looking back what Suga have done right after the Tokyo Metropolitan elections was to cancel the Olympics and go for a general election ASAP (back in July the COVID-19 numbers were mostly under control.)   I actually thought at the time that going ahead with the Olympics was the right move for Suga given there were no more downsides for him by going forward with the Olympics and some upside if things went well.  It seems there were even more downside and that is how it played out.

Totally agree that LDP power brokers (including Abe) are negative on Kono Taro which would be his main handicap.  I think the LDP backbench MPs and rank-and-file could go against the elders to get Kono Taro elected if they see the LDP situation as desperate enough.

[jaichind]

In Suga's own district of 神奈川(Kanagawa) 2nd district the result is

山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP)                               32.3%
小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP)                                 23.1%
林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support)                  14.5%
田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) (ex-governor of 長野(Nagano))                    12.3%
松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) (ex-governor of 神奈川(Kanagawa))  10.0%
福田峰之(Fukuda Mineyuki) (former LDP MP)                                     3.8%
太田正孝 (Ota Masataka) (former CDP city assembly member)            2.7%

Only slightly better for 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP) than results overall.  It seems Suga had almost no net impact here.

[jaichind]

In 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP) own 神奈川(Kanagawa) 3rd district the result is

山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP)                               30.3%
小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP)                                 30.0%
田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) (ex-governor of 長野(Nagano))                    12.2%
林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support)                  11.3%
松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) (ex-governor of 神奈川(Kanagawa))    8.5%
福田峰之(Fukuda Mineyuki) (former LDP MP)                                     4.0%
太田正孝 (Ota Masataka) (former CDP city assembly member)            2.2%

Here more of the LDP base went to 小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP) due to the favorite son effect which led to the underperformance of 林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support)  and to some extent 松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) (ex-governor of 神奈川(Kanagawa)).

[jaichind]

With all votes counted

山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP)                               33.6%
小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP)                                 21.6%
林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support)                  13.1%
田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) (ex-governor of 長野(Nagano))                    12.9%
松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) (ex-governor of 神奈川(Kanagawa))  10.8%
福田峰之(Fukuda Mineyuki) (former LDP MP)                                     4.1%
太田正孝 (Ota Masataka) (former CDP city assembly member)            2.6%
Minor independent                                                                         1.3%

Looking at my predictions it seems despite trying to take into account the turnout surge I still overestimated the two pro-LDP candidates and underestimated the two ex-governors, especially 田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) (ex-governor of 長野(Nagano)).       

Final 横浜市(Yokohama) mayor election projection based on higher turnout


山中竹春 (Yamanaka Takeharu) (CDP-DPP-SDP)                               32%
小此木八郎(Okonogi Hachirō) (part of LDP-KP)                                 26%
林文子(Hayashi Fumiko) (incumbent, some LDP support)                  18%
松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) (ex-governor of 神奈川(Kanagawa))   9%
田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) (ex-governor of 長野(Nagano))                    7%
Rest                                                                                             8%

[jaichind]

Assuming Suga stays in the LDP Prez race and Kono Taro does not run Suga should still win over 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) (ex-member of Hosoda faction), 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) (leader of Kishida faction), and  下村博文(Shimomura Hakubun) (member of Hosoda faction)

I think Suga should win 二階(Nikai) faction, 石破(Ishiba) faction, pro-Suga bloc, part of 竹下(Takesh**ta) faction and part of 細田(Hosoda) faction
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) should win  石原(Ishihara) faction and part of  竹下(Takesh**ta) faction
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) should win 岸田(Kishida) faction
下村博文(Shimomura Hakubun) should win part of 細田(Hosoda) faction

The big unknown is 麻生(Asō) faction which Kono is a member of.  If they mostly stick with Suga then Suga should win on the first round.  If they go with another candidate (most likely 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)) then the race could go into the second round where I think Suga will most likely lose.

If Suga does not run, then it is almost certain Kono Taro will run he should pick up most of the non-細田(Hosoda) faction and non-二階(Nikai) faction part of the Suga vote but pick up part of the 麻生(Asō) faction.  Kono will not win on the first round but is likely to win on the second round.

[jaichind]

Sankei reports that, as expected, that 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) will jump into the race for LDP Prez.  This does put the 麻生(Asō) faction votes in place.  Separately, Yomiuri is reporting that Suga is most likely going to call the general election for early Oct.  I assume Suga's gambit is to make the election for LDP Prez (late Sept) so close to the general election (early Oct) that the LDP MPs and rank-and-file have no choice but to vote Suga in the LDP Prez race as there is no time for an alternative leader to reorganize in time for the general election.  In other words, if what Yomiuri reports is true then Suga would have place his own personal interests above that of the LDP.

[jaichind]

Suga cabinet approval curve slowly moves toward the 30% threshold.  The good news for him is disapproval is not as high as one would expect given the approval level which means a lot of undecides which could be converted by Suga.