COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Green Line]

Thankfully my site/branch of our nonprofit has decided to stay virtual at least a little longer. 5-10% of us have gotten COVID and probably more since half haven’t gotten tested yet (we mandated it upon coming back but there’s a long delay/shortage), and most of our AmeriCorps members are roommates with those on other teams. And we’ve had a vaccine mandate.

One of our middle school partners has over 40 confirmed positive cases. And most elementary classes have only 3 to 6 students per classroom and 20 teachers out.

Sounds like you all should stop obsessively testing yourselves, continue to live your lives, and stay home if you're too sick to work.  What insanity this is.  You'll continue to get Omicron over and over again for years to come.  Feel sorry for all the healthy children that are at home "sick" because of mass hysteria.

Did you not read my post? We’ve been virtual this week and now next week. It’s the first time this year we required to be tested, after New Years.

Yes?  Thats my point.  Go back to work unless you're too sick to work.  You shouldn't even be required to get tested, its insane.  You can't hide from Omicron.

[Blue3]

Thankfully my site/branch of our nonprofit has decided to stay virtual at least a little longer. 5-10% of us have gotten COVID and probably more since half haven’t gotten tested yet (we mandated it upon coming back but there’s a long delay/shortage), and most of our AmeriCorps members are roommates with those on other teams. And we’ve had a vaccine mandate.

One of our middle school partners has over 40 confirmed positive cases. And most elementary classes have only 3 to 6 students per classroom and 20 teachers out.

Sounds like you all should stop obsessively testing yourselves, continue to live your lives, and stay home if you're too sick to work.  What insanity this is.  You'll continue to get Omicron over and over again for years to come.  Feel sorry for all the healthy children that are at home "sick" because of mass hysteria.

Did you not read my post? We’ve been virtual this week and now next week. It’s the first time this year we required to be tested, after New Years.

Yes?  Thats my point.  Go back to work unless you're too sick to work.  You shouldn't even be required to get tested, its insane.  You can't hide from Omicron.

It requires 5 days since travel and isolation to be considered effective for a test. Due to delays, many of our people couldn’t return to our site physically until today. I’m an experienced manager, with other managers and a national organization. We’ve seen the data. We know we are making the best decision for us.

And you don’t seem to understand. Omicron is a variant, not its own virus. It will keep having more mutations.

Plus I don’t want to deal with someone saying to me it will be our fault if a grandparent of one of our students dies and how they would take it up with us, as happened in December when one of our members was positive and gone for 3 weeks but DOH never told them they were a close contact. Or about our members who live with a parent with cancer or members who are immuno-compromised themselves (like me).

And in case you missed the international news in my post, because I doubt India is the only one who has undercounted:

Thankfully my site/branch of our nonprofit has decided to stay virtual at least a little longer. 5-10% of us have gotten COVID and probably more since half haven’t gotten tested yet (we mandated it upon coming back but there’s a long delay/shortage), and most of our AmeriCorps members are roommates with those on other teams. And we’ve had a vaccine mandate. Most boosted too.

One of our middle school partners has over 40 confirmed positive cases. And most elementary classes have only 3 to 6 students per classroom and 20 teachers out.

In very depressing news:
India just learned it undercounted and found 3 million of its citizens they thought were alive are dead. 600% more deaths than previously believed.
Covid death toll in India likely far higher than official record, research says
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/covid-death-toll-india-likely-far-higher-official-record-research-says-rcna11357

[riceowl]

I went to New Orleans last weekend. I'm boosted. I fully expected to get it when I went. And I have a PCR scheduled this afternoon.

and in the least shocking of news I tested + today
feelin fine! a little throat tickle.

[It’s so Joever]

I went to New Orleans last weekend. I'm boosted. I fully expected to get it when I went. And I have a PCR scheduled this afternoon.

and in the least shocking of news I tested + today
feelin fine! a little throat tickle.

Common omicron symptom.

[Calthrina950]

Sonia Sotomayor spewed more false information about Covid today in the Supreme Court than MTG or any anti vaxxer could ever hope to.  Hopefully she is relentlessly censored and fact checked by big tech (i know, lol).  Amazing and frightening that these out of touch, zero-Covid boomers are in positions of such high authority.

https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1479500787583758346

I heard about this. Most observers seem to believe that the Court is leaning against the OSHA vaccine mandate, but it's likely to be a closely divided decision. As of right now, I'm thinking that it might be 5-4, with Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett voting to strike down the mandate, and Roberts, Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan voting to uphold it, although Roberts could plausibly go the other way.

Interestingly enough, Sotomayor is the only Justice who wears a mask on the bench during oral arguments. Of course, she has diabetes and is in more perilous health than her colleagues, so that makes sense.

I must correct myself on this. Today was the first oral argument in which the majority of the Justices were masked. Gorsuch was the only Justice who was unmasked. And Sotomayor was not there in person, but participated remotely, either through one of the virtual meeting platforms such as Zoom or by phone.

[emailking]

850 today and yesterday revised up to 800. I'm guessing we break a million next week.

The death wave is pretty concerning too now that deaths are clearly rising. Our death wave does not look like South Africa's. Not sure how much you can blame Delta if Omicron has been crowding it out for weeks now. Hopefully it drops soon but I am dubious.

[It’s so Joever]

850 today and yesterday revised up to 800. I'm guessing we break a million next week.

The death wave is pretty concerning too now that deaths are clearly rising. Our death wave does not look like South Africa's. Not sure how much you can blame Delta if Omicron has been crowding it out for weeks now. Hopefully it drops soon but I am dubious.

You may want to keep in mind the winter holidays could have artificially lowered numbers/created potential backlog. The trend is still inconclusive right now, we may want at least another week of consistent rise to be able to say this isn’t just a data anomaly.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, my spreadsheet document tries to compute the death rate by computing the deaths divided by known cases. Right now it's only 0.26%, the lowest of the entire pandemic. Just 3 weeks ago it was 0.93%, and in June it was over 2%.

[emailking]

Yeah it's not as deadly as Delta it seems. Yes let's see where we are a week from now, in case holiday is still affecting it.

[Crumpets]

Since December 20th, when Omicron really began to take off in the US, about 2.28% of the US population has tested positive for COVID. The idea that Omicron will just work its way through the entire population, and we'll reach some level of herd immunity probably has some truth to it (assuming no new variants in the near future), but it still has a long way to go, if that's the plan.

Most tests are at home nowadays, and I suspect most positive home test results are not getting reported to the govt. I've read that some counties, notably Fairfax VA, are not even accepting submission of home test results.

There is also tons of asymptomatic omicron that is presumably not being tested for.

Not to mention that plenty of mildly symptomatic people across the country probably aren’t even bothering to get tested in the first place.

Yes, it's true that the official count has always been an undercount of infections, but I will push back a bit on the "most tests are at home" line. I don't think that's true, at least in a lot of areas. Here at least, home tests are much harder to come by than the "official" drive-through tests. I don't know anyone who has been able to get access to at-home tests since they hit the market. Demand is high, but supply is still very low. At least, I don't think we can say that the combination of unofficial tests and asymptomatic untested cases is enough to drive that figure up more than a few more percentage points.

[Meclazine for Israel]

WA had one new COVID case with community transmission. 7 in hotel quarantine from interstate.

Population statistics for vaccination.

1st jab : 93.5%
2nd jab : 85.7%
Booster : 12.2%

[Hollywood]

WA had one new COVID case with community transmission. 7 in hotel quarantine from interstate.

Population statistics for vaccination.

1st jab : 93.5%
2nd jab : 85.7%
Booster : 12.2%

WA had like 16 thousand news cases.  Are politicians trying to blame interstate travelers again.  Yeah.  Stop doing that S$$$. 

[It’s so Joever]

Also, my spreadsheet document tries to compute the death rate by computing the deaths divided by known cases. Right now it's only 0.26%, the lowest of the entire pandemic. Just 3 weeks ago it was 0.93%, and in June it was over 2%.

What’s the case-death lag period you account for in your spreadsheet?

[ElectionsGuy]

Yeah it's not as deadly as Delta it seems. Yes let's see where we are a week from now, in case holiday is still affecting it.

No kidding, that's been known for some time now. You'd think a supreme court justice would know basic facts like that.

[Inmate Trump]

I got a negative test.

Last Saturday it started with a little throat tickle that lasted until Wednesday when I started having a slight cough.  Thursday was lots of congestion, less cough, no more sore throat.  Friday added a headache and even more congestion.

But negative test, so I guess it's a sinus infection?

[Meclazine for Israel]

WA had one new COVID case with community transmission. 7 in hotel quarantine from interstate.

Population statistics for vaccination.

1st jab : 93.5%
2nd jab : 85.7%
Booster : 12.2%

WA had like 16 thousand news cases.  Are politicians trying to blame interstate travelers again.  Yeah.  Stop doing that S$$$. 

WA - Western Australia not Washington State.

16,000 is next level.

[GeorgiaModerate]

WA had one new COVID case with community transmission. 7 in hotel quarantine from interstate.

Population statistics for vaccination.

1st jab : 93.5%
2nd jab : 85.7%
Booster : 12.2%

WA had like 16 thousand news cases.  Are politicians trying to blame interstate travelers again.  Yeah.  Stop doing that S$$$. 

WA - Western Australia not Washington State.

16,000 is next level.

Well, now we know Ted Cruz's username here!

[Hollywood]

I got a negative test.

Last Saturday it started with a little throat tickle that lasted until Wednesday when I started having a slight cough.  Thursday was lots of congestion, less cough, no more sore throat.  Friday added a headache and even more congestion.

But negative test, so I guess it's a sinus infection?

Word on the street is that people in homes with family members infected with Covid-19 are also seeing the same symptoms despite not testing positive.  This keeps happening, but I have no explanation for it. Now that I think of it, the tests might not be able to pick up omicron, because another version of it might be too distinctive for a PCR Test to identify it.  I think it's pretty settled argument that Covid-19 is evolving rapidly, and maybe taking characteristics of other viruses (Rhinovirus, HIV).        

I had Covid three weeks ago.  As soon as my throat started to bother me and the aches came along, I had my sister in-law buy a whole pot of chicken soup that I drank it and inhaled the steam throughout the day while sitting in a hot bath.  Then I rinsed off with a hot shower and slept.  Rinse and Repeat.  Barely lasted two days.  It never got worse than moderate throat soreness. I'm almost glad that I got Omicron, because at least now I've built immunity.  

I have no idea what Covid-19 looks like next winter, because I have zero confidence in the work being done by the NIH, CDC, and WHO.  Even the medical journals need to be watched carefully due to their censorship of research that is accepted in countries like Japan, South Africa, India and South Korea, but counters American and European infectious disease agencies.  The medical official in South Africa told the world not to panic over Omicron cause it wasn't that dangerous, and the Western World banned flights.  I don't get it.  

I also don't understand why someone like Fauci is still F-ing breathing after he secretly resumed Coronavirus gain-of-function (Frankenstein) research after the Obama Administration left, and lied in Congress about his role in what I can only describe as a crime against humanity.  That guy needs to F-ing go already.  What kind of POS still wants Fauci dictating medical policy?  I don't even know a Democrat that trusts Anthony Fauci.  Just from a political POV, it's a very bad look for the Democrats to put all their faith in a man everyone knows can't be trusted.  

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, my spreadsheet document tries to compute the death rate by computing the deaths divided by known cases. Right now it's only 0.26%, the lowest of the entire pandemic. Just 3 weeks ago it was 0.93%, and in June it was over 2%.

What’s the case-death lag period you account for in your spreadsheet?

The lag is only 3 days. I could adjust it to make it longer.

The reason it's only 3 days is that some fatal cases are reported to state agencies at the same time as the death.

[Calthrina950]

I got a negative test.

Last Saturday it started with a little throat tickle that lasted until Wednesday when I started having a slight cough.  Thursday was lots of congestion, less cough, no more sore throat.  Friday added a headache and even more congestion.

But negative test, so I guess it's a sinus infection?

Word on the street is that people in homes with family members infected with Covid-19 are also seeing the same symptoms despite not testing positive.  This keeps happening, but I have no explanation for it. Now that I think of it, the tests might not be able to pick up omicron, because another version of it might be too distinctive for a PCR Test to identify it.  I think it's pretty settled argument that Covid-19 is evolving rapidly, and maybe taking characteristics of other viruses (Rhinovirus, HIV).        

I had Covid three weeks ago.  As soon as my throat started to bother me and the aches came along, I had my sister in-law buy a whole pot of chicken soup that I drank it and inhaled the steam throughout the day while sitting in a hot bath.  Then I rinsed off with a hot shower and slept.  Rinse and Repeat.  Barely lasted two days.  It never got worse than moderate throat soreness. I'm almost glad that I got Omicron, because at least now I've built immunity.  

I have no idea what Covid-19 looks like next winter, because I have zero confidence in the work being done by the NIH, CDC, and WHO.  Even the medical journals need to be watched carefully due to their censorship of research that is accepted in countries like Japan, South Africa, India and South Korea, but counters American and European infectious disease agencies.  The medical official in South Africa told the world not to panic over Omicron cause it wasn't that dangerous, and the Western World banned flights.  I don't get it.  

I also don't understand why someone like Fauci is still F-ing breathing after he secretly resumed Coronavirus gain-of-function (Frankenstein) research after the Obama Administration left, and lied in Congress about his role in what I can only describe as a crime against humanity.  That guy needs to F-ing go already.  What kind of POS still wants Fauci dictating medical policy?  I don't even know a Democrat that trusts Anthony Fauci.  Just from a political POV, it's a very bad look for the Democrats to put all their faith in a man everyone knows can't be trusted.  

The recent Gallup poll showed that a majority of Americans (52%) still approve of Dr. Fauci. Nevertheless, as this figure indicates, approval of him is polarized along partisan lines at this point, and closely matches Biden's performance against Trump in 2020. 85% of Democrats continue to approve of Fauci, along with 52% of independents, while 81% of Republicans disapprove.  So, I don't think it's true that "everyone" distrusts him. Moreover, the media continues to rely upon Fauci as an authoritative source of information and expertise. I certainly don't think Fauci is right about everything, and I'd wish the media would challenge him more. But that's not going to happen.

[compucomp]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/restaurants-seek-federal-aid-as-omicron-surge-threatens-another-hard-winter-11641637802?mod=hp_lead_pos3

Customer orders at full-service restaurants were nearly 18% lower in the year that ended in November compared with the same period before the pandemic, while orders at fast-food restaurants were down less than 2% over that period, according to NPD.

The Omicron variant’s spread could prolong some restaurants’ difficulties, operators said. For the week that ended Dec. 1, U.S. restaurant seatings were 7% lower than 2019 levels, according to data from reservation service OpenTable Inc. By the end of the month, they were down 32% by the same metrics, according to the company.

Despite what this forum seems to think, a solid proportion of this country is still considering the virus as a threat and is adjusting their behavior, particularly in response to Omicron. There is no mandate or government action causing this drop in restaurant sales, it's all grassroots action by people concerned about COVID.

For the nth time, for all you people screaming about "lockdowns" because your favorite restaurant closed its dining room, this is happening because a substantial proportion of the population in your area disagree with you and have stopped dining indoors. Not because the government made them close.

Restaurants should adapt to the new normal, de-emphasize their dining rooms and emphasize their takeout and delivery options. It would probably help if there were some regulation on Doordash/Seamless/Ubereats as they are probably acting like a cartel right now with their fees.

[ꙮ]

Restaurants should adapt to the new normal, de-emphasize their dining rooms and emphasize their takeout and delivery options. It would probably help if there were some regulation on Doordash/Seamless/Ubereats as they are probably acting like a cartel right now with their fees.

For most restaurants, “adapting to the new normal” will involve just shutting down. Most restaurants have narrow profit margins in the first place. You can’t just ““de-emphasize the dining room”” when doing so would mean the restaurant is no longer profitable.

[Sir Mohamed]

Restaurants should adapt to the new normal, de-emphasize their dining rooms and emphasize their takeout and delivery options. It would probably help if there were some regulation on Doordash/Seamless/Ubereats as they are probably acting like a cartel right now with their fees.

For most restaurants, “adapting to the new normal” will involve just shutting down. Most restaurants have narrow profit margins in the first place. You can’t just ““de-emphasize the dining room”” when doing so would mean the restaurant is no longer profitable.

Yup, I would instead prefer smart solutions like offering free tests for indoor space, especially for unvaccinated if you don't want to restrict their access already. Other than that, ventilation concepts or just opening windows more frequently can help.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/neuroecology/status/1479432438896017409

[emailking]

Yeah it's not as deadly as Delta it seems. Yes let's see where we are a week from now, in case holiday is still affecting it.

No kidding, that's been known for some time now. You'd think a supreme court justice would know basic facts like that.

All I meant that the data here is bearing out that it's less deadly, but the problem is that it's causing more deaths anyway compared to a month ago (unless it's holiday backlog and goes away in a week).