COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Can't Bear]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1476920190193569795

GOP are so lucky, Biden won't follow Adams or Polis.

[Can't Bear]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1473623227608055814

Underrated reason of why Dems lost GOV VA.

[lfromnj]

I wonder if vaxxed people are spreading omicron more per capita.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I wonder if vaxxed people are spreading omicron more per capita.

In my spreadsheet document where I estimate the percentage of people who are immune in each state, the omicron wave seems to be hitting much harder in states with more immunity.

[Former President tack50]

An interesting perspective on recent increased hospitalization rates from an ICU nurse:

https://slate.com/technology/2022/01/omicron-miami-icu-nurse-covid-optimism.html

I would say as I talk to the nurses that work in the COVID unit right now, I sense more optimism. In the first and second surges, we saw so much death, and dying, and suffering. It was really, really, really heartbreaking.

This time, patients just aren’t as sick.

So this means that even if hospitalization rates rise to the pre-vaccine levels, ICU usage or deaths won't? That's certainly excellent news

[Former President tack50]

I wonder if vaxxed people are spreading omicron more per capita.

This is 100% not possible; as presumably vaxxed people have habits no more conducive to spreading covid than unvaxxed people.

Plus the vaccine almost definitely must be doing something to slow down transmission, even if it is not much.

I could see the results being very close, but I don't think it is possible for vaxxed people to spread more than unvaxxed

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1476920190193569795

GOP are so lucky, Biden won't follow Adams or Polis.

This is a silly comparsion

Being a local government is one thing, It's another to be a sitting president who has to deal with a mainstream media that is currently hyping up Omicron as the worst thing ever. I don't for 1 second think Adams or Polis numbers on covid would be as good if they were the actual president of the United States right about now because the media would still to be fearmongering over Omicron and blaming them for letting it spread

[Can't Bear]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1476920190193569795
GOP are so lucky, Biden won't follow Adams or Polis.

This is a silly comparsion

Being a local government is one thing, It's another to be a sitting president who has to deal with a mainstream media that is currently hyping up Omicron as the worst thing ever. I don't for 1 second think Adams or Polis numbers on covid would be as good if they were the actual president of the United States right about now because the media would still to be fearmongering over Omicron and blaming them for letting it spread

Do you know, what city New York Times is in? Adams gives press conferences and goes to different media everyday and calmly keeps hammering his simple, yet sane message.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1478087531451359237

But ,uh, whatever, keep defending Biden. Better for GOP, hehe, if he keeps doing his thing (hiding in the basement).

[Can't Bear]

If some of the trends in South Africa hold up, I believe humans will be able to transition into a more pre-Covid esque way of life. Let’s keep watch, deaths did rise over a 7 day period yesterday and today, but both of those were so close to Christmas last week that I suspect the count may have been deflated last time.

Keeps going up, which is... uhm... expected. Deaths always lags cases by 3-4 weeks. Cases peaked in South Africa on Dec 17th, which means that deaths will peak somewhere around Jan 7th - 14th.


By the way, the Omicron surge in US started around Dec 17th, too, which means that Omicron related deaths will start to rise ~next week in US. The difference is, though, that SA has only one wave this time - Omicron, while in US Omicron "killed" Delta wave, so unclear how total death will look like.

[Not Me, Us]

I could be wrong, but it seems like Omicron should burn itself out relatively soon, shouldn't it? Cases in South Africa are plummeting, and their population is way less vaccinated than the US. That combined with Omicron's mildness should be cause for optimism, right? Or is there a caveat I'm not aware of? It seems to me that post-Omicron life could look like June 2021. Hopefully it'll last this time.

[Migrant Crime]

I could be wrong, but it seems like Omicron should burn itself out relatively soon, shouldn't it? Cases in South Africa are plummeting, and their population is way less vaccinated than the US. That combined with Omicron's mildness should be cause for optimism, right? Or is there a caveat I'm not aware of? It seems to me that post-Omicron life could look like June 2021. Hopefully it'll last this time.

The cases will plummet just like they did this time last year, sure.  They dropped dramatically for the first half of the year in the US.  Then things will go kind of back to "normal" for a few months (but less normal than last summer because blue metros like Chicago, NYC, Bay Area, LA have now instituted additional hygene theater like vax passports that they have no metrics for removing).

Then, cases will go back up again.  People will freak out, and public health bureaucrats will say we need to listen to them and restrict our lives some more.  The question then will be, have the people wised up?  Unknown at this point.  We'll also have many fewer "fully vaccinated" at that time than we did last summer because the definition will change to include boosters, so there will be another reason to restrict normality.

[Can't Bear]

I could be wrong, but it seems like Omicron should burn itself out relatively soon, shouldn't it? Cases in South Africa are plummeting, and their population is way less vaccinated than the US. That combined with Omicron's mildness should be cause for optimism, right? Or is there a caveat I'm not aware of? It seems to me that post-Omicron life could look like June 2021. Hopefully it'll last this time.

The caveat is that ~90% of their population has already been infected (even before Omicron) and a lot of vulnerable have died. How good is natural immunity? Well, perhaps, it is better than 2 (two) doses. Perhaps, they were even more protected than US.


https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1478470030559899648

[Lief 🗽]

My KING is ALIVE
https://twitter.com/nycmayor/status/1478792811818500101?s=21

(The wailing from the overly-educated communists in the replies is particularly funny.)

[Oakvale]

My KING is ALIVE
https://twitter.com/nycmayor/status/1478792811818500101?s=21

(The wailing from the overly-educated communists in the replies is particularly funny.)

Hard to overstate how refreshing it is to hear a politician who'll actually speak the obvious truth and isn't either a anti-vax scamdemic gremlin (i.e. all Republicans) or a hysterical pawn of teachers' unions (i.e. far too many Democrats).

[Migrant Crime]

Eric Adams is implementing a vaccine policy that is literally putting thousands of low wage workers out of their jobs, lol.  He is a total blowhard with no substance behind his words.

I know, I know.  The point is to punish the unvaccinated, so its fine.

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1476920190193569795
GOP are so lucky, Biden won't follow Adams or Polis.

This is a silly comparsion

Being a local government is one thing, It's another to be a sitting president who has to deal with a mainstream media that is currently hyping up Omicron as the worst thing ever. I don't for 1 second think Adams or Polis numbers on covid would be as good if they were the actual president of the United States right about now because the media would still to be fearmongering over Omicron and blaming them for letting it spread

Do you know, what city New York Times is in? Adams gives press conferences and goes to different media everyday and calmly keeps hammering his simple, yet sane message.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1478087531451359237

But ,uh, whatever, keep defending Biden. Better for GOP, hehe, if he keeps doing his thing (hiding in the basement).

first off I did not defend anybody, so I'm not sure what the heck you are even talking about

Secondly You and I both know that there is a big difference between the level of media scrutiny that a governor or a Mayor gets compared to a sitting president. For example Sarah Palin got great press when she was just a governor of Alaska, but that all changed the second people saw her as being 1 heart beat away from being president had McCain won in 2008

Now if you want to believe this fantasy that Eric Adams would be getting the same positive numbers on covid if was the actual president during this current covid surge than be than be my guest but I dont buy it at all  

[Oakvale]

Eric Adams is implementing a vaccine policy that is literally putting thousands of low wage workers out of their jobs, lol.  He is a total blowhard with no substance behind his words.

I know, I know.  The point is to punish the unvaccinated, so its fine.

They should get vaccinated! Problem solved! Thanks for reading

[emailking]

CDC vaccine advisers vote to recommend Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 boosters for youths as young as 12

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices voted 13-1 Wednesday in favor of expanding the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine booster recommendation to include people as young as 12.

The new recommendation: "A single Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine booster dose is recommended for persons aged 12 to 17 years at least 5 months after primary series under the FDA's emergency use authorization."

CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky must sign off on the recommendation for it to take effect.

The advisers made the recommendation after hearing research on rare cases of myocarditis and pericarditis in young people who have gotten Covid-19 vaccines and noting that many parents are concerned about long-term side effects of vaccines. They also considered that vaccine uptake among 12- to 17-year-olds has slowed recently and weighed the record numbers of Covid-19 cases in children amid a surge of the highly transmissible Omicron variant of the coronavirus.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/05/health/cdc-acip-pfizer-covid-vaccine-boosters-adolescents/index.html

[Hammy]

I could be wrong, but it seems like Omicron should burn itself out relatively soon, shouldn't it? Cases in South Africa are plummeting, and their population is way less vaccinated than the US. That combined with Omicron's mildness should be cause for optimism, right? Or is there a caveat I'm not aware of? It seems to me that post-Omicron life could look like June 2021. Hopefully it'll last this time.

It's not impossible that the surge in the US dies out more slowly. I'd look more at individual states, as the summer surge was pretty uneven depending on region, and occurred at different times, giving the national impression of one long continuous elevation in cases.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Novak Djokovic says he has a medical exemption to come into Australia to defend his Australian Open title:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-04/novak-djokovic-says-received-an-exemption-to-enter-australia/100738536

Not sure if this will fly.

Whether both the Federal and State Governments agree on letting people in for sports reasons is a grey area.

As predicted, the lack of political co-operation between State and Federal Governments for the ability of Novak Djokovic to defend his Australian Open in Melbourne has gone next level.

This has become political now with the Serbian President now involved. Novak is anti-vaccintation and will not reveal his vaccination status.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/serbian-president-will-fight-for-novak-djokovic/100740932
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-59889522
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/05/tennis/novak-djokovic-australia-open-visa-spt-intl/index.html
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/novak-djokovic-denied-entry-australia-visa-deportation
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/5/australia-cancels-novak-djokovic-visa

'Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic may not be able to defend his 2021 title after his visa to enter Australia was canceled, Health Minister Greg Hunt said in an on-camera interview with local media Thursday.'

'Djokovic "failed to provide appropriate evidence to meet the entry requirements for Australia and visa has been subsequently canceled," he said.'

Novak is very liked in Melbourne and this will be simply embarrassing for the Victorian Government following a long list of 2020 and 2021 embarrassments in their inability to effectively manage COVID related issues.


(Photo Credit ABC: Tom Maddocks)
Fans waiting at Melbourne Airport this morning for Novak Djokovic.

Follow live:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/live-novak-djokovic-visa-reactions/100741054

[GregTheGreat657]

The NY mask mandate was extended to Feb. 1
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid-hochul-extends-mask-mandate-february-1-20211231-arkjjt3lcjhq3hnpo7uurebvpi-story.html

[Calthrina950]

The NY mask mandate was extended to Feb. 1
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid-hochul-extends-mask-mandate-february-1-20211231-arkjjt3lcjhq3hnpo7uurebvpi-story.html

Not surprising. I suspect Hochul is going to extend it every month for the next several months. Again, it is notable that all nine states (and D.C.) that still have a mask mandate at this point are under Democratic control. That's certainly a clear signal of how polarized the issue is now.

[GregTheGreat657]

The NY mask mandate was extended to Feb. 1
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid-hochul-extends-mask-mandate-february-1-20211231-arkjjt3lcjhq3hnpo7uurebvpi-story.html

Not surprising. I suspect Hochul is going to extend it every month for the next several months. Again, it is notable that all nine states (and D.C.) that still have a mask mandate at this point are under Democratic control. That's certainly a clear signal of how polarized the issue is now.

There's a reason for my new display name

[emailking]

Broke 700K cases today.

[Hammy]

The NY mask mandate was extended to Feb. 1
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid-hochul-extends-mask-mandate-february-1-20211231-arkjjt3lcjhq3hnpo7uurebvpi-story.html

Not surprising. I suspect Hochul is going to extend it every month for the next several months. Again, it is notable that all nine states (and D.C.) that still have a mask mandate at this point are under Democratic control. That's certainly a clear signal of how polarized the issue is now.

There's a reason for my new display name

NY Republicans are just as corrupt as Dems. The state needs outside administration for awhile.