2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

As I was mapping out the various assembly election results for large cities I was able to observe the nomination strategies of different parties which are now compatible since the district sizes are quite large so every major party/bloc had a chance to win a seat.  I did notice a trend that told me why LDP wins, even though recently it is losing ground. 

Namely, LDP is ruthless to its party candidates and JCP is compassionate and loyal to its party candidates.  If you run as LDP and do not get elected, you are pretty much out.  You can still try to run and win as a pro-LDP independent next election but you are on your own.  JCP on the other hand goes with the same candidate over and over again even if he or she loses several elections in a row.  The logic of evolution dictates that LDP's approach will come out ahead just like ruthless businesses come out ahead of their more compassionate rivals.    Raw political talent that can win will move to LDP because their ability to win will get recognized and promoted in the LDP whereas they have to deal with a more tenure system in the LDP.  JCP had a secular surge in the 2013-2015 period but has been on a secular decline since which it does not seem to be able to stop.  If JCP wants to win it has to adopt more of LDP tactics and abandon candidates that have a track record of losing.

KP's nomination strategy is simple.  The KP vote is purely a party vote and not a personal vote.  KP nominate a candidate who gets to run for 2-3 terms and once their age is up they are out and replace with someone younger.  This does not matter since the KP vote is purely a party vote and not a personal vote.

[jaichind]

How well do you think JRP needs to do for there to be defections from LDP? Pretty interesting to see this regional power about Osaka urban power moving towards the second party in Japan.

JRP is not getting the quality defections from LDP and Center-Left as they did in 2012 to help them win real seats outside of the Kinki region.  Back in 2012, the sky was the limit on how well the JRP could have done.  Now while JRP is on a roll there is a cap on how big their vote base is outside the Kinki region.  For someone with their own personal vote, all things equal, they are better off running as CDP than JRP in most seats outside of Kinki.  And where someone is better off defecting to JRP to run as opposed to CDP (there has been a few CDP->JRP defectors like this) that candidate is unlikely to beat LDP although they have a better chance at getting elected on the PR slate.

[Logical]

The upcoming DPFP leadership contest is interesting and will determine DPFP's stance in the next election.

Incumbent DPFP leader Tamaki Yuichiro has steered the party closer to LDP, cooperating with them in the diet on many issues, even voting for the budget. If he wins he is open to changing the party's name to distance itself from its DPJ heritage. The challenger is ex foreign minister, former DPJ and DP leader Maehara Seiji. His platform is fully returning DPFP into the opposition, embracing a confrontational attitude against the LDP and forming a broad front of anti LDP non JCP parties (which includes JRP).

Tamaki has the support of industrial unions that back DPFP while Maehara is more popular among rank and file party members. All things given, Tamaki should be considered the favorite to win.

[xelas81]

The upcoming DPFP leadership contest is interesting and will determine DPFP's stance in the next election.

Incumbent DPFP leader Tamaki Yuichiro has steered the party closer to LDP, cooperating with them in the diet on many issues, even voting for the budget. If he wins he is open to changing the party's name to distance itself from its DPJ heritage. The challenger is ex foreign minister, former DPJ and DP leader Maehara Seiji. His platform is fully returning DPFP into the opposition, embracing a confrontational attitude against the LDP and forming a broad front of anti LDP non JCP parties (which includes JRP).

Tamaki has the support of industrial unions that back DPFP while Maehara is more popular among rank and file party members. All things given, Tamaki should be considered the favorite to win.

Wasn't Maehara responsible for end of DP back in 2017?

[Logical]

Wasn't Maehara responsible for end of DP back in 2017?

The very same. To be fair to him, DP was doomed. The more right wing DP MPs had or were planning to defect to Koike. By funneling some of DP's campaign funds to CDP he helped ensure the survival of the Japanese center left.

[jaichind]

Wasn't Maehara responsible for end of DP back in 2017?

The very same.

He also led DPJ for around a year after the 2005 LDP landslide victory.

[jaichind]

埼玉(Saitama) governor election today which is boring since the pro-DPP incumbent with support for all non-JCP parties crushed the JCP candidate as expected.  The only thing interesting are the exit polls by party support and comparison to the 2019 gubernatorial election


          2023      2019
LDP      32         40
KP         5           6
JRP        6           2
DPP       2           3
CDP       9         18
RS         2
JCP        6          5

Big dropoff for LDP-KP and CDP.  JCP support holding up which is a surprise.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

SDP continue its move to be the "Woke Party" which worked well for them in the 2022 Upper House elections.

Is that sarcastic or not?

[Logical]

SDP continue its move to be the "Woke Party" which worked well for them in the 2022 Upper House elections.

Is that sarcastic or not?

No. SDP was rapidly losing relevance and on the verge of disbanding after half of the party voted to secede and join the CDP in 2021. For the 2022 HoC elections they ran as the ultra liberal feminist LGBTQ party, and kept their PR seat with a respectable result.
There is a small but highly active progressive movement in Japan, SDP are positioning themselves as vanguards of the movement in order to ensure their continued survival.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

SDP continue its move to be the "Woke Party" which worked well for them in the 2022 Upper House elections.

Is that sarcastic or not?

No. SDP was rapidly losing relevance and on the verge of disbanding after half of the party voted to secede and join the CDP in 2021. For the 2022 HoC elections they ran as the ultra liberal feminist LGBTQ party, and kept their PR seat with a respectable result.
There is a small but highly active progressive movement in Japan, SDP are positioning themselves as vanguards of the movement in order to ensure their continued survival.

Makes sense, for a small party like them they need a solid base, no matter how small, to stay relevant.

Different question, might've been asked before. Are there any left-leaning parties that are pro-nuclear? I still find it to be stupid how many so-called environmentalists push so hard against something that has the potential to phase out fossil fuels much faster

[Logical]

Makes sense, for a small party like them they need a solid base, no matter how small, to stay relevant.

Different question, might've been asked before. Are there any left-leaning parties that are pro-nuclear? I still find it to be stupid how many so-called environmentalists push so hard against something that has the potential to phase out fossil fuels much faster

DPFP are pro nuclear but they are only considered centre left in the Japanese context. In most countries they would be firmly counted on the centre right.

[jaichind]

SDP continue its move to be the "Woke Party" which worked well for them in the 2022 Upper House elections.

Is that sarcastic or not?

Not based on the history of SDP last decade or so.  But historically SDP or its ancestor party SPJ has been fairly socially conservative while being Left on economic policy.  So now SDP being the woke party is sort of funny.  But they need a niche or else there is no way they can explain why someone should vote for SDP vs just voting for CDP.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASR867HQJR86UTFK009.html

JRP leader 馬場 伸幸(Baba Nobuyuki) said that if LDP-KP failed to win a majority in the next Lower House election then JRP will be open to joining the LDP-KP coalition to get to a majority. 

It seems he is targeting LDP voters this next election telling them that it is fine to switch from LDP to JRP since there is no chance of a CDP-led government (which could include JCP) even if LDP-KP is defeated at the polls.  Of course this will also have the effect of driving the anti-LDP vote back to CDP.

[jaichind]

JRP runs a candidate in 埼玉(Saitama) 14th, which is a newly created seat, against KP.  This means that JRP has or will have a candidate running against KP in every seat KP is running in with the exception of 北海道(Hokkaido) 9th.  In 埼玉(Saitama) 14th it will be KP vs JRP vs DPP vs JCP.  Most likely KP still has the edge but how the LDP and CDP vote will flow will determine the result.  If JRP does run a candidate in 北海道(Hokkaido) 9th against the KP incumbent it will most likely throw the race to CDP since in 2021 it was clear that the JRP PR vote swung behind LDP-KP leading to CDP underperformance there.

[jaichind]

JRP nominate one 伊藤 博文 (Itō Hirobumi) as its candidate in 山口(Yamaguchi) 3rd.   伊藤 博文 (Itō Hirobumi)  is the namesake of a great Japanese statement of the Meiji reform era who was Japan's first PM.    This seems on purpose since 伊藤 博文 (Itō Hirobumi) is also from 山口(Yamaguchi).  It would be like a political party in the USA running a candidate called Alexander Hamilton in NY state.

[jaichind]

Map of JRP and CDP candidates.  Despite tough talk from both sides, there is some tactical coordination between the two in rural and suburban areas.  They are going after each other in urban areas but that is more about both senses that LDP is losing support in urban areas and are trying to position themselves to try to gain from it.

[jaichind]

Latest PR voting intentions curve




PR vote average (change from two weeks ago)

LDP     31.3 (-0.5)
KP        4.3 (+0.1)
DIY       1.6 (-0.1)
PNHK    0.3 (+0.1)
JRP      15.1 (-0.9)
DPP       3.1 (+0.1)
CDP       9.5 (-0.5)
RS        3.5 (-0.3)
SDP      0.5 (+0.2)
JCP       4.7 (-0.6)

Not much change, mostly some dealignment.

[jaichind]

The latest NHK poll has Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval at 33/45 which matches the low back in late 2022.  One clear trend now is that, unlike the Abe cabinet, the Kishida cabinet is relatively stronger with the 60s cohort than the Abe cabinet but much weaker with the youth.

[jaichind]

Latest JX PR poll.

Big decline with LDP to the benefit of pretty much everyone else

LDP      25.5 (-3.3)
KP         4.4 (+0.4)
DIY        1.7 (+0.5)
PNHK     0.6 (-0.2)
JRP      17.1 (+0.3)
DPP       2.4 (+0.4)
CDP     15.6 (+1.1)
RS         3.3 (+0.7)
SDP       0.8 (-0.1)
JCP        8.9 (+0.6)

[jaichind]

The latest NHK poll pushes the Kishida cabinet's average approval/disapproval close to the 30% danger mark which it did touch back in late 2022 before rebounding.

[jaichind]

More data from my large urban city assembly election results where I derive a PR vote from only looking at large districts (6+ candidates) only.  I used the average by bloc of the 12 largest cities outside of Tokyo which is lucky since they are all on the same cycle.

The blocs, once again, are LDP+ (LDP, pro-LDP Ind, LDP rebels, LDP regional allies), KP, Third Pole (anti-LDP right parties), Center-Left, JCP

The fact I looked at the 12 largest cities means that these numbers will inflate JCP and Third Pole relative to LDP+ and Center-Left when compared to other urban areas but the trends are the same.

                         2023        2019      2015       2011       2007      2003
LDP+               31.36%   36.46%   35.45%   34.51%   36.34%   38.83%
KP                   14.02%   14.95%   15.58%   15.69%   16.69%   18.27%
Third Pole         19.89%   11.69%   12.51%   13.69%     1.42%    3.16%
Center-Left       23.89%   24.88%   22.72%   25.47%   32.80%   26.97%
JCP                  10.71%   11.85%   13.65%   10.50%   12.55%   12.67%

Note that KP is in secular decline during this entire period.  The decline of KP is somewhat more insulated at the national level given the lower national turnout since 2012 which help push up the KP vote share.  But if turnout were to rise then KP is in big trouble.  Likewise, JCP has been in secular decline since 2015 and there are no signs of it stopping.

2003: This is a good starting point since by this time the LDP-KP alliance has been solidified so these vote shares can reflect what is "normal" and a baseline

2007: DPJ surged mostly at the expense of LDP+ and KP.  LP merging into DPJ in 2003 clearly added to the DPJ surge.

2011: DPJ is now in power nationally. JCP declines as some Center-Left-JCP marginal voters shift over to Center-Left given DPJ showed that it can defeat LDP as it did in 2009.  The rise of Third pole parties like YP and JRP clearly eats into Center-Left and somewhat into LDP+ and KP

2015: The collapse of DPJ in 2012 means that the Center-Left-JCP marginal voters shifted back to JCP and some more pushing JCP to a new peak.  LDP also gains some from Center-Left.  YP fell apart in 2013 and JRP moves in to take over most of the YP vote but is unsuccessful in its attempt to expand beyond that.

2019: The decline of JCP means Center-Left gains those Center-Left-JCP marginal voters again.  The third pole hits a bottom with some of their support going over to LDP+

2023: Third pole surge (JRP and DIY) mostly at the expense of LDP+ and somewhat KP as well as Center-Left.  Center-Left continues to gain from JCP as JCP decline continues.

One can see the same trends by looking at seats per bloc at the prefectural level but the city assembly approach gives an urban "PR" vote share view of these trends.

The national implications of the LDP+ drop in support in urban areas to Third Pole (mostly JRP) will be felt in the next general election.  This should give pause to Kishida in trying to call an election while his ratings are not high.

[jaichind]

Remaining prefecture assembly elections in 2023

岩手(Iwate) - Sept 3rd - look for LDP to make gains as Ozawa's influence wanes
宮城(Miyagi) - Oct 22nd - JRP to make gains.  The main question is how much and from whom
福島(Fukushima) - Nov 12th - JRP to make gains.  The main question is how much and from whom

[CascadianIndy]

Remaining prefecture assembly elections in 2023

岩手(Iwate) - Sept 3rd - look for LDP to make gains as Ozawa's influence wanes
宮城(Miyagi) - Oct 22nd - JRP to make gains.  The main question is how much and from whom
福島(Fukushima) - Nov 12th - JRP to make gains.  The main question is how much and from whom

How much of Fukushima politics is still based around the fallout from the 311 disaster, and could it be fertile territory for Reiwa Shinsengumi? Or is it, like most of its Tokai compatriots, an Old Left sort of prefecture?

[jaichind]

Remaining prefecture assembly elections in 2023

岩手(Iwate) - Sept 3rd - look for LDP to make gains as Ozawa's influence wanes
宮城(Miyagi) - Oct 22nd - JRP to make gains.  The main question is how much and from whom
福島(Fukushima) - Nov 12th - JRP to make gains.  The main question is how much and from whom

How much of Fukushima politics is still based around the fallout from the 311 disaster, and could it be fertile territory for Reiwa Shinsengumi? Or is it, like most of its Tokai compatriots, an Old Left sort of prefecture?

On the whole not much impact.  The 2011 prefecture election was delayed a few months due to 311.  If you compare the 2007 2011 and 2015 election results in terms of seats you see very little impact or difference

              2007     2011      2015
LDP+       31          32         30
KP             3           3           3
JRP/YP                    1           3
DPJ         18          16         16
SDP          3            1           1
JCP           3            5           5

Overall there are some voters in 福島(Fukushima) that become more anti-nuclear and hence anti-LDP.  But overall the impact is fairly small.  This time we do have the discharge of radioactive water of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant issue which could swing the vote against LDP more.  Note that both CDP and JRP are anti-nuclear while DPP is pro-nuclear along with LDP and KP.  So the anti-nuclear vote could swing against LDP but could very well go to JRP and not CDP.

[jaichind]

Latest PR voting intentions curve




PR vote average (change from two weeks ago)

LDP     30.7 (-0.6)
KP        4.4 (+0.1)
DIY       1.8 (+0.2)
PNHK    0.5 (+0.2)
JRP      13.9 (-1.1)
DPP       2.5 (-0.6)
CDP     10.2 (+0.7)
RS        4.0 (+0.5)
SDP      0.6 (+0.1)
JCP       4.4 (-0.3)

CDP and RS gain ground while LDP and JRP lose ground.