2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

Will any of the Komeito incumbents holding a district be voted out of parliament?

All 6 KP incumbents in Kansai will no doubt lose if JRP goes ahead and stand in their seats.

But Komeito will be able to take some seats through proportional representation. Depending on how many seats it wins in the proportional representation bloc, would it really be impossible for them to place their six district incumbents on the top of the lists?

As a matter of policy, KP is pretty much the only party that does not place district seat candidates on the PR slate allowing them to win a seat via 'best loser". 

[jaichind]

Nikkei PR vote (change from May)

LDP    34 (-2)
KP       3  (--)
DIY      3  (+1)
PNHK   1 (--)
JRP    14 (-2)
DPP     3 (+1)
CDP   11 (+1)
RS      5 (+2)
SDP    1  (--)
JCP     3 (--)

JCP is very weak in this poll.  RS seems to be surging while both LDP and JPR lose some ground.  LDP+KP at 37 is not a good number.  It should be above 40.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/6dd5e8ca87b4f9dbedfb9941fcf8a9e33b41a181

CDP leader says that the CDP nomination strategy will be based on maximizing the number of seats for the opposition.    I can see CDP pulling out of a bunch of seats in 兵庫(Hyōgo) and 奈良(Nara) to let JRP take on LDP-KP 1-on-1.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve continues to fall.  This seems to be driven by the My Number link with medical insurance rollout issues.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/8389b07bc181c8311ede51669c15e6c87ee00415

Family fued im Okinawa 4th.  Older brother will run for JRP while younger brother is likely to run for RS

[jaichind]

Nikkei poll: 58% are for ending the LDP-KP alliance.  Of LDP supporters it is 40% are for ending the LDP-KP alliance while 50% of LDP supporters are for the LDP-KP alliance.

[jaichind]

Evolution of the 19 Osaka district seats in Lower House elections with likely 2023 election results (if it is held)

            LDP    KP       JRP      Center-Left     
2003      6       4        N/A            9
2005     13      4        N/A            2                (Koizumi urban wave)
2009       1      0        N/A          18                (DPJ wave)
2012       3      4        12             0                 (JRP wave but left KP alone)
2014       9      4         5              1
2017     10      4         3              2
2021      0       4       15              0                 (JRP wave but left KP alone)
2023?     0       0       19             0                 (JRP wave also hits KP)

[Logical]

There is some turmoil inside CDP over cooperation with JCP in the election. Local chapters in Kanto and Ozawa is in favor of a full cooperation pact like the last election while the party executive wants informal local pacts. 2 lower house members have also left the party this month after disputes.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/1433de11dcd43ac053cfa397d990f677e05e5dad

Continued rumors that Tokyo governor Koike, who is 70, and the window for her to make a big splash in national politics closing, is working on trying to push a JRP-KP alliance with her also getting into the act by getting LDP and CDP defectors in Tokyo to create a sweep in Tokyo for a possible JRP-Kokie-KP front.

[jaichind]

Looks like DIY is going to run a lot of candidates in the likely upcoming Lower House elections.  The main goal of course is to push up the DIY PR vote.  This will cost a lot of money since most of them will lose their deposits.  Where is DIY getting its money? JCP can afford to do this from the revenue from the sale of the JCP newspaper subscriptions but DIY has nothing like that.

[PSOL]

Looks like DIY is going to run a lot of candidates in the likely upcoming Lower House elections.  The main goal of course is to push up the DIY PR vote.  This will cost a lot of money since most of them will lose their deposits.  Where is DIY getting its money? JCP can afford to do this from the revenue from the sale of the JCP newspaper subscriptions but DIY has nothing like that.

I would assume their wealthy backers and membership fees.

How and who does each party get donations from? Are all the zaibatsus for the LDP?

[Logical]

Looks like DIY is going to run a lot of candidates in the likely upcoming Lower House elections.  The main goal of course is to push up the DIY PR vote.  This will cost a lot of money since most of them will lose their deposits.  Where is DIY getting its money? JCP can afford to do this from the revenue from the sale of the JCP newspaper subscriptions but DIY has nothing like that.

I would assume their wealthy backers and membership fees.

How and who does each party get donations from? Are all the zaibatsus for the LDP?

Parties receive state subsidies if they win at least 2% in the national vote share. JCP refuses the subsidies out of principle but they're loaded anyway.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/9b751e61fd96ddd6788de037e4f99923feb19e3d

Abe faction still without a leader which is why it is still called Abe faction. If the deadlock is not broken soon this powerful faction will go into decline which would be wonderful news for Kishida. 

[jaichind]

With most major parties pretty much selected most of their candidates for a likely election in the Fall, one fact stands out. Outside of Kinki it is hard for JRP to win district seats unless
a) KP is running
OR
b) LDP candidate is damaged in some way
AND
c) the Center-Left is not running anyone

Outside a couple of heavy urban seats the JRP could swing who wins between LDP and the Center-Left candidates but will struggto win.  This is mostly about candidate quality with credibility of local roots

[PSOL]

Looks like DIY is going to run a lot of candidates in the likely upcoming Lower House elections.  The main goal of course is to push up the DIY PR vote.  This will cost a lot of money since most of them will lose their deposits.  Where is DIY getting its money? JCP can afford to do this from the revenue from the sale of the JCP newspaper subscriptions but DIY has nothing like that.

I would assume their wealthy backers and membership fees.

How and who does each party get donations from? Are all the zaibatsus for the LDP?

Parties receive state subsidies if they win at least 2% in the national vote share. JCP refuses the subsidies out of principle but they're loaded anyway.

Besides this…

[jaichind]

Another funny story from the prefecture elections.  In 鳥取(Tottori) the pro-LDP governor 平井 伸治(Hirai Shinji) was re-elected by a landslide.  But in the 12-member 鳥取市(Tottori City) prefecture assembly district an independent with the same name came in 12th and won a seat.  It seems this 平井 伸治(Hirai Shinji)  is from out of town and has a criminal record but because he had the same name as the governor whom people were voting for at the same time he got through.

This newly elected MLA with the same name as the governor was just arrested for fraud.  He will almost certainly lose his seat.   

[Logical]

Looks like DIY is going to run a lot of candidates in the likely upcoming Lower House elections.  The main goal of course is to push up the DIY PR vote.  This will cost a lot of money since most of them will lose their deposits.  Where is DIY getting its money? JCP can afford to do this from the revenue from the sale of the JCP newspaper subscriptions but DIY has nothing like that.

I would assume their wealthy backers and membership fees.

How and who does each party get donations from? Are all the zaibatsus for the LDP?

Parties receive state subsidies if they win at least 2% in the national vote share. JCP refuses the subsidies out of principle but they're loaded anyway.

Besides this…

CDP and DPP are bankrolled by the unions.
LDP has deep ties with the business federations and the construction lobby.
Komeito is the political arm of Soka Gakkai and pretty much gets all their funding from them.
JRP are supported by Kansai based businesses.
Only RS and DIY are reliant on donations by their membership.

[jaichind]

Going seat by seat so far I see

67 DIY candidates - 30 in what I call competitive seats and 37 in non-competitive seats
85 JCP candidates - 30 in what I call competitive seats and 54 in non-competitive seats and 1 where JCP is the main alternative to LDP (Okinawa 1st which JCP has won every time since 2014)

On the whole, JCP is showing more restraint than DIY in jumping into competitive seats to "stir up trouble" for the main parties.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASR725HZ9R72UTFK004.html

KP leader indirectly undermines the government policy of release of nuclear power plant treated water into the ocean by saying that it should not be done during swimming season in the Summer.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve has approval going below 35

[PSOL]

Looks like DIY is going to run a lot of candidates in the likely upcoming Lower House elections.  The main goal of course is to push up the DIY PR vote.  This will cost a lot of money since most of them will lose their deposits.  Where is DIY getting its money? JCP can afford to do this from the revenue from the sale of the JCP newspaper subscriptions but DIY has nothing like that.

I would assume their wealthy backers and membership fees.

How and who does each party get donations from? Are all the zaibatsus for the LDP?

Parties receive state subsidies if they win at least 2% in the national vote share. JCP refuses the subsidies out of principle but they're loaded anyway.

Besides this…

CDP and DPP are bankrolled by the unions.
LDP has deep ties with the business federations and the construction lobby.
Komeito is the political arm of Soka Gakkai and pretty much gets all their funding from them.
JRP are supported by Kansai based businesses.
Only RS and DIY are reliant on donations by their membership.

Which unions for CDP? Also hasn't the CDP gotten strong support from software and startup companies?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve has approval going below 35

Storm clouds are on the horizon.

[jaichind]

Japan-ROC politics crossover

DPP (that is Japan's DPP and not ROC's DPP) organized a CDP-JRP-DPP delegation of MPs to visit ROC and meet with ROC DPP Prez Tsai



The goal seems to be
a) Create the atmosphere for a CDP-JRP-DPP tactical alliance in the upcoming election
b) Given the median Japanese voter is much more anti-PRC than a decade ago show that the opposition will not be outflanked by the LDP on foreign policy.

Of course, note the picture in the background of the ROC Prez Palace has a picture of ROC Prez and KMT founder Sun in it.  There is no escape from One China !!!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Japan-ROC politics crossover

DPP (that is Japan's DPP and not ROC's DPP) organized a CDP-JRP-DPP delegation of MPs to visit ROC and meet with ROC DPP Prez Tsai



The goal seems to be
a) Create the atmosphere for a CDP-JRP-DPP tactical alliance in the upcoming election
b) Given the median Japanese voter is much more anti-PRC than a decade ago show that the opposition will not be outflanked by the LDP on foreign policy.

Of course, note the picture in the background of the ROC Prez Palace has a picture of ROC Prez and KMT founder Sun in it.  There is no escape from One China !!!

Feels like a shrewd move.

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20230704-HFSFK75QEBMTNAL4D4NMBN2SYI/

Looks like JRP will nominate one of their rising superstars in Tokyo to run in  Tokyo 29th against KP.  She ran for JRP in the Upper House elections last year in Tokyo and narrowly missed being elected.  She could very well draw enough LDP votes to win herself or throw the election to the CDP candidate.

For now, it seems JRP is going all out to "get" KP.   Of course, part of this is also about winnability.   Everyone knows that KP will struggle with carrying the LDP vote, especially in Tokyo, so JRP is moving in to try to win a seat.