2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

After JRP nominated a sitting Upper House MP for KP-held Osaka 3rd, it seems it will hold primaries to determine candidates for the other 3 KP-held Osaka seats (5th 6th, and 16th).

[jaichind]

The latest Mainichi poll has Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval at 28/65 which would be around where it was in late 2022 in the middle of the LDP Unification Church problems.



This seems to be about the botched My Number system merger with the national healthcare system.   The good news for Kishida is that Digitical minister Kono, his main rival within LDP, also has his approval rating going down as well which along with the continued chaos in the headless Abe faction is creating a situation where there is no real alternative to Kishida in the LDP.

[jaichind]

A chart on JRP election strategy as per JRP leadership

LDP -> main enemy
CDP -> secondary enemy, the goal is to destroy CDP in this election to set up a 2 party system with LDP and JRP are the two main parties in Japan
DPP -> friendly relationship
KP -> Confront in FPTP districts
JCP -> enemy, should disappear from the Japanese political scene

[jaichind]

Digital Minister Kono's trip to the USA in August was canceled in order to deal with the My Number merger with the national health system fiasco. 

Media pointing out that both Kishida and Kono are facing "headwinds" politically on this issue

[jaichind]

CDP accuses JRP of a "second LDP" or the LDP B-team.  JRP seems to embrace this accusation saying that JRP's aim is to create a 2 party system between LDP and JRP where the LDP #1 (LDP) and LDP #2 (JRP) can fight with each other to reform Japan.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri/NTV poll also has Kishida cabinet approval crashing to a record low similar to what it was in late 2022.

[CascadianIndy]

The latest Mainichi poll has Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval at 28/65 which would be around where it was in late 2022 in the middle of the LDP Unification Church problems.



This seems to be about the botched My Number system merger with the national healthcare system.   The good news for Kishida is that Digitical minister Kono, his main rival within LDP, also has his approval rating going down as well which along with the continued chaos in the headless Abe faction is creating a situation where there is no real alternative to Kishida in the LDP.

Mainichi has terrible numbers on party support too.

Independent 25 (+2)
LDP 24 (-5)
Ishin 16 (+1)
CDP 9 (-1)
RS 7 (+2)
JCP 6 (-)
Kōmei 4 (-)
DPFP 4 (+1)
Sansei 3 (-)
SJ48/PNHK 1 (+1)
SDP 0 (-1)

Reiwa seems to be still doing quite well. With these numbers, Kishida’s going to try and hold off a snap election call, right? Best he can hope for is Ishin and the CDP trip over themselves in their quest for a knife fight with the LDP, but even then…

Now that I think of it, the Abe assassination has shaken up Japanese politics, just not in the way most foreign op-ed writers thought it would. Can Kishida placate Motegi (who doesn’t seem to be that popular with the general public) and will the Abe faction still be paralyzed?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

A chart on JRP election strategy as per JRP leadership

LDP -> main enemy
CDP -> secondary enemy, the goal is to destroy CDP in this election to set up a 2 party system with LDP and JRP are the two main parties in Japan
DPP -> friendly relationship
KP -> Confront in FPTP districts
JCP -> enemy, should disappear from the Japanese political scene

I thought the DPP and Ishin had irreconcilable differences relating to Rengo. Were these issues resolved?

[jaichind]

Mainichi has terrible numbers on party support too.

Independent 25 (+2)
LDP 24 (-5)
Ishin 16 (+1)
CDP 9 (-1)
RS 7 (+2)
JCP 6 (-)
Kōmei 4 (-)
DPFP 4 (+1)
Sansei 3 (-)
SJ48/PNHK 1 (+1)
SDP 0 (-1)

Reiwa seems to be still doing quite well. With these numbers, Kishida’s going to try and hold off a snap election call, right? Best he can hope for is Ishin and the CDP trip over themselves in their quest for a knife fight with the LDP, but even then…

Now that I think of it, the Abe assassination has shaken up Japanese politics, just not in the way most foreign op-ed writers thought it would. Can Kishida placate Motegi (who doesn’t seem to be that popular with the general public) and will the Abe faction still be paralyzed?

With the momentum of these numbers, it seems Kishida will have to hold off on elections.  But if he holds off for too long he risks a rerun of the slow attrition of Gordon Brown 2008-2010.  Ideally for Kishida the My Numbers merger into national healthcare system blows over in a couple of months and he can then go for an election in late 2023 or early 2024.

[jaichind]

I thought the DPP and Ishin had irreconcilable differences relating to Rengo. Were these issues resolved?

I think Rengo prefers DPP has an alliance with CDP. Rengo does not object to JRP but would want DPP to prioritize an alliance with CDP.  JRP wanting an alliance with DPP does not rule out DPP also doing some deals with CDP separately.

[jaichind]

Updated PR vote polling average




PR vote average (change from a week ago)

LDP     31.7 (-0.7)
KP        3.9 (-0.2)
DIY       1.8 (-0.2)
PNHK    0.4 (-0.3)
JRP      15.7 (+0.5)
DPP       2.8 (-0.1)
CDP     10.5 (-0.2)
RS        3.5 (-0.1)
SDP      0.4 (-0.3)
JCP       4.8 (+0.2)

Everyone loses ground except for JRP and JCP

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval heads downward toward 30 and getting close to the low point of late 2022.

[jaichind]

Average support for LDP lowest since its return to power in 2012.

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20230725/ddl/k13/010/008000c

Looks like Koike's TPFA will run in 15 seats or so.  I have to assume that it will be in Tokyo.  This will hit JRP the most.  I will be curious to see if her candidate have a LDP or Rengo backgrounds.

[jaichind]

SDP continue its move to be the "Woke Party" which worked well for them in the 2022 Upper House elections.

[jaichind]

Confirmed candidates in the next Lower House elections in district seats so far.



DIY has 94 candidates already which is almost as much as JCP's 102.    By my calculation, 38 out of the 94 DIY candidates are running in competitive seats whereas 37 out of the JCP candidate are running in competitive seats (I do not count Okinawa 1st on the JCP 37 candidates since there the JCP candidate is the main alternative to LDP).  This gives you a sense of the vote-splitting potential of both DIY and JCP.

Out of the 11 independents
(3 are LDP rebels, 1 pro-CDP Ind., 2 pro-DPP Ind, 5 a pro-DPP group)

Note out of 274 LDP candidates, 4 are "duplicate" candidates whereas in 3 seats we have 2 LDP candidates in theory going to run and 1 seat where LDP and KP both have a candidate.  So LDP high command will have to "adjust" these extra candidates, most likely getting them to run on the PR slate.  Note there are 8 seats where LDP-KP has no candidate (5 of them in Osaka) where most of them are no-win seats for LDP with little chance of winning enough votes to be elected on the PR slate (especially those in Osaka) so it is a matter of finding someone to be the sacrificial lamb in those seats.

[jaichind]

The candidate list from DIY seems strange.  They are going all out in urban prefectures and especially urban prefectures where DIY did well in 2022.  What is missing are a bunch of rural prefectures where DIY also did well in 2022 where DIY has no candidates.  It is very likely they have not gotten around to them yet in which case I expect another surge of DIY candidates being nominated in the future.  It would not surprise me if DIY ends up nominating more candidates than JRP and JCP.

[Logical]

The candidate list from DIY seems strange.  They are going all out in urban prefectures and especially urban prefectures where DIY did well in 2022.  What is missing are a bunch of rural prefectures where DIY also did well in 2022 where DIY has no candidates.  It is very likely they have not gotten around to them yet in which case I expect another surge of DIY candidates being nominated in the future.  It would not surprise me if DIY ends up nominating more candidates than JRP and JCP.

They know they have no hope of winning FPTP seats so their strategy is to run candidates only in PR blocks they can win in (Kanto, Tokyo, Tokai, Kansai and Kyushu) to push up the PR vote. If that means leaving out some favorable prefectures in Chugoku and Hokuriku then so be it. Only exception to the rule is Hokkaido where their lead PR candidate chose to run a dual candidacy in the first district.

[jaichind]

The candidate list from DIY seems strange.  They are going all out in urban prefectures and especially urban prefectures where DIY did well in 2022.  What is missing are a bunch of rural prefectures where DIY also did well in 2022 where DIY has no candidates.  It is very likely they have not gotten around to them yet in which case I expect another surge of DIY candidates being nominated in the future.  It would not surprise me if DIY ends up nominating more candidates than JRP and JCP.

They know they have no hope of winning FPTP seats so their strategy is to run candidates only in PR blocks they can win in (Kanto, Tokyo, Tokai, Kansai and Kyushu) to push up the PR vote. If that means leaving out some favorable prefectures in Chugoku and Hokuriku then so be it. Only exception to the rule is Hokkaido where their lead PR candidate chose to run a dual candidacy in the first district.

That is a good point and would explain a lot of the DIY nomination strategy so far.  Still, I would think for DIY abandoning several blocs just because there is no chance of winning PR seats this time does not help them in the 2024 Upper Hosue elections to push up their PR vote.   DIY should view the next Lower House elections as a way to build up their brand and organization.   I still think it makes sense to run some candidates in some of the rural PR bloc areas, especially in prefectures where they did well in 2022.

[jaichind]

仙台市(Sendai City) assembly elections tomorrow.  The result will be a good test of what strength JRP has in the Northeast which is one of its weakest areas.  JRP and DIY will run in most districts and it will be interesting to see if they take more votes from LDP+ or the Center-Left.  The number of seats per district is large the result should be PR-like for JRP support so it would also give us a sense of JRP support in the urban parts of the Northeast.

                          2019                           2015                             2011    
                   Seats    Vote share       Seats   Vote share           Seats    Vote share
LDP+             22          38.9%            22         38.3%              22          41.6%
KP                   9          13.5%             9          14.8%                8          13.7%
Third Pole         1            3.1%            2            6.1%                4            7.4%
Center-Left     17          31.7%           15          26.7%              14          25.9%
JCP                  6          12.3%             7          14.2%                7          10.9%

I predict
LDP+          19
KP                9
Third Pole      6  (5 of them JRP)
Center-Left  14
JCP               7

KP and JCP will lose vote share as part of the secular trend.  A better nomination strategy should mean JCP regaining its 7th seat.  JRP takes away equally from LDP+ and Center-Left

[jaichind]

仙台市(Sendai City) assembly elections results.  

                        Seats        Vote share
LDP+                  18               33.4%
KP                        9               13.7%
Third Pole              7               14.2% (5 JRP 1 DIY)
Center-Left          15               29.4%
JCP                       6                 9.4%

DIY outperformed and won a seat.  DIY vote share was 3.7% and would have won > 4% of the vote had it run in all districts.  JCP was more conservative in candidate selection but still could not win back its 7th seat.  JRP won 5 seats as expected and win 7.1% of the vote.  LDP underperformed and lost an extra seat than I expected mostly due to overnomination.

From a vote share point of view, DIY was the party that outperformed and shows that even in the Northeast DIY has some strength.  KP also outperformed and actually gained vote share when KP is losing vote share across urban areas.

Overall LDP-KP loses the majority on in the assembly.

[Octowakandi]

How well do you think JRP needs to do for there to be defections from LDP? Pretty interesting to see this regional power about Osaka urban power moving towards the second party in Japan.

[jaichind]

Updated PR vote polling average




PR vote average (change from a week ago)

LDP     31.8 (+0.1)
KP        4.2 (+0.3)
DIY       1.7 (-0.1)
PNHK    0.2 (-0.2)
JRP      16.0 (+0.3)
DPP       3.0 (+0.2)
CDP     10.0 (-0.5)
RS        3.8 (+0.3)
SDP      0.3 (-0.1)
JCP       5.3 (+0.5)

JRP and JCP continue their rise.  RS also rises at the expense of CDP.

[jaichind]

Lower House tentative candidate list for 兵庫(Hyogo) so far.

It is mostly LDP-KP vs JRP vs Center Left (CDP or DPP) with JCP and DIY being in there in some cases in urban and suburban seats and LDP vs JRP in rural seats.  It seems CDP and JCP have de facto decided to see what JRP can do to take on LDP in rural seats 1-on-1

[jaichind]

The various local elections do seem to show a significant erosion of the LDP vote in urban areas.   If you look at the larger districts (where the number of seats available means that the results are going to be PR-like) in various city assembly elections and look at the LDP+ vote share there has been a significant drop from 2019 mostly toward Third pole parties like JRP and DIY.  I focused on the larger cities other than Tokyo.

City                            2023 LDP+        2019 LDP+       Swing
横浜市(Yokohama)            34.2%              34.6%           -0.4%
大阪市(Osaka)                  13.2%              17.4%           -4.2%
名古屋市(Nagoya)             24.5%              27.3%           -2.8%
札幌市(Sapporo)               38.9%              41.5%           -2.6%
神戸市(Kobe)                    26.3%             29.8%            -3.5%
京都市(Kyoto)                   24.8%             31.0%            -6.2%
福岡市(Fukuoka)               37.6%             46.0%            -8.4% (I count a pro-LDP local party as part of LDP+)
川崎市(Kawasaki)              31.9%             39.0%            -7.1%
さいたま市(Saitama)          26.2%             33.7%            -7.5%
広島市(Hiroshima)             49.4%             58.1%             -8.7%
仙台市(Sendai)                  33.4%             38.9%            -5.5%
千葉市(Chiba)                    34.9%             39.6%            -4.7%
(堺市)Sakai                       12.5%             16.0%            -3.5%
新潟市)Niigata)                  41.9%             50.4%            -8.5%
浜松市(Hamamatsu)           46.1%             48.8%            -2.7%

The only big city I am missing is 北九州市(Kitakyushu) which is on a different election cycle.  広島市(Hiroshima)  is a bit of an outlier as after DP split in 2017 neither CDP nor DPP organized in 2019 so in 2019 the Center-Left was just SDP plus some pro-Center-Left independents.  So the LDP vote share in 広島市(Hiroshima) in 2019 was artificially high.  In 横浜市(Yokohama), it seems JRP grew mostly at the expense of the Center-Left parties vs the LDP.  Hamamatsu(浜松市) is special in the sense that JRP did not contest there so the swing there gives you a sense of what the swing away from LDP+ would look like without the Third pole in the fray.

All things equal KP is losing vote share as well in these cities.  So the concern in LDP has to be that in urban areas the LDP-KP vote base is shrinking to the benefit of JRP and DIY.