2023 Japan Unified local elections

[Logical]

Police raided the Nikai faction HQ too.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20231219/k10014292161000.html

[CascadianIndy]

JX is back with new polling and it’s, uh, not pretty.

Party support has the LDP continuing its downward slide.


LDP 23.9 (-4.1)
CDP 11.6 (-0.4)
Ishin 6.5 (-1.1)
JCP 5.3 (-0.1)
Kōmei 3.7 (+0.3)
RS 2.4(+0.6)
DPFP 1.0 (-1.1)
SDP 0.8 (+0.1)
NHK 0.3 (+0.1)
ARE 0.3 (NEW)

No Party Affiliation 43.1 (+4.

It’s even worse on the PR bloc vote.



LDP 18.5 (-5.
CDP 18.1 (+1.7)
Ishin 13.7 (-)
JCP 9.6 (+1.2)
Kōmei 5.9 (+1.0)
RS 4.1 (+1.4)
Other 3.4 (-0.5)
DPFP 2.4 (-0.
PP 1.3 (+0.4)
SDP 1.1 (-0.5)
ARE 0.9 (NEW)
NHK 0.1 (-0.5)

No Party Affiliation (if someone has a better translation I’m all ears) 20.8 (+1.5)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

わからない (wakaranai) might be best translated as Don't Know or Uncertain in this context.

[jaichind]

JX has a historical anti-LDP pro-CDP lean.  Although part of their anti-LDP lean is their ability to get KP PR voters who are hiding out as LDP PR voters to be more honest which lowers the LDP PR numbers for JX polls.

[CascadianIndy]

I went seat by seat and came up with my current back-of-the-envelope projection of what an early election result might look like

                District     PR        Total
LDP            156        59         215
KP                 5         19         24
DIY                0          1           1
JRP              26         36         62
ARFE             2           0           2  (DPP pro-JRP Kinki splinter)
DPP               5           8         13
CDP             87         38       125
RS                0           6           6
SDP              1           0           1
JCP               1           9         10
Ind.              6                            (5 opposition, 1 pro-LDP)

This is what I assumed it was going to be: LDP loses its majority by itself but LDP-KP still keeps the majority.

For the 289 district seats, I organized them into certain, likely, projected

             Certain       Certain+likely          Projected
LDP         125                145                      156
KP              2                    5                          5
JRP           19                  22                        26
ARFE          1                    1                          2
DPP            4                    5                          5
CDP          48                  61                        87                  
SDP            1                    1                         1
JCP             0                    1                         1
Ind.            3                    6                         6
------------------------------------------------------------
Total       203                 247                       289

I assume a pro-opposition lean for the tossups seats which could easily turn around if the current political climate changes.  So my projection is closer to the floor of the LDP which despite clearly problems still have a lot of quality candidates and core support base at the local level.

My rough guess had something along the lines of:

LDP 220 (26.0%)
CDP 110 (18.0%)
Ishin 75 (22.0%)
Komei 25 (11.0%)
JCP 10 (8.0%)
DPFP 8 (4.0%)
RS 6 (6.0%)
ARE 2
SDP 1 (2.0%)
DIY 1 (2.0%)

Ind. 7

Out of curiosity, how do you make an election model especially for Japanese politics? Is it mostly guesswork, or is there some degree of methodology behind it?

[jaichind]

My rough guess had something along the lines of:

LDP 220 (26.0%)
CDP 110 (18.0%)
Ishin 75 (22.0%)
Komei 25 (11.0%)
JCP 10 (8.0%)
DPFP 8 (4.0%)
RS 6 (6.0%)
ARE 2
SDP 1 (2.0%)
DIY 1 (2.0%)

Ind. 7

Out of curiosity, how do you make an election model especially for Japanese politics? Is it mostly guesswork, or is there some degree of methodology behind it?

It is mostly guesswork by looking at the candidate quality on a district-by-district basis plus the district's electoral lean based on past PR voting records. 

[Tintrlvr]

わからない (wakaranai) might be best translated as Don't Know or Uncertain in this context.

Right. The first question is "Which party do you support?" and the last response is "None" (literally "without any to support"), but the second question is "Which party do you plan to vote for in the PR vote?" and the last response is "Don't know".

The 60+% Don't know for online responses is crazy, but not shocking given the very high level of disengagement among Japanese youth, who should disproportionately make up online responders.

CDP having the biggest difference between phone polls and online is interesting, as is JRP having the least.

[jaichind]

The latest PR vote polling averages since a bunch of other polls came out last few days



PR vote average (change from 4 days ago)
LDP     25.1 (-2.0)
KP        4.7 (+0.5)
DIY       1.8 (-0.1)
PNHK    0.3 (+0.3)
JRP      13.5 (-1.0)
ARFE     1.2                  (new Kinki-based DPP splinter)
DPP      3.2 (+0.3)
CDP    12.3 (-0.7)
RS        4.8 (+0.5)
SDP      1.0 (-0.4)
JCP       4.8 (+1.3)

LDP continues to lose ground.  JRP and CDP lose ground to JCP and RS which is partly some reversion to the mean.  The new DPP pro-JRP splinter ARFE doing not badly in the PR polls so far given it is just located in the Kinki area.

[jaichind]

Ind. 7

I am curious which 7 independents do you have winning ?

My 6 are
茨城(Ibaraki) 1st
東京(Tokyo) 26th
京都(Kyoto) 4th
福岡(Fukuoka) 9th
大分(Ōita) 1st
鹿児島(Kagoshima) 2nd

Do you think the ex-LDP turned independent incumbent of 東京(Tokyo) 15th will win?

[jaichind]

Likely candidates for open seat Mayor of Kyodo election in early Feb.

LDP-KP-CDP establishment anti-JCP consensus candidate
LDP rebel faction candidate
JRP-DPP-ARFE-KYP candidate (KYP is a local Third pole party)
JCP-RS candidate



Back in 2020, it was

LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-SDP anti-JCP consensus incumbent candidate       45.1%
JCP-RS                                                                                        34.6%
KYP (de facto backed by JRP)                                                        20.3%

[CascadianIndy]

Ind. 7

I am curious which 7 independents do you have winning ?

My 6 are
茨城(Ibaraki) 1st
東京(Tokyo) 26th
京都(Kyoto) 4th
福岡(Fukuoka) 9th
大分(Ōita) 1st
鹿児島(Kagoshima) 2nd

Do you think the ex-LDP turned independent incumbent of 東京(Tokyo) 15th will win?

I forgot he got indicted in this whole mess. Speaking of which - looks likely he’s going down.

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUE224070S3A121C2000000/

Senkyo.watch only has an Ishin and JCP candidate slated to run there right now - how do you think such a by-election to replace him would go?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Why are the LDP commiting seppuku on themselves?
 

The LDP clearly did not pick this state of affairs.  This entire Abe faction funding scandal has been out there as a topic since 2015 when the opposition made a big deal of it but it went nowhere because the official investigation was going so slowly that there was no smoking gun.  Abe's assassination set off a chain reaction where Abe was not around to use his power with the investigatory bureaucracy to slow down the pace of investigation which in turn finally led to smoking guys being revealed.   

So in that sense, Abe's assassin won in so many different ways

a) He caused the complete collapse of the Unification Church as an operation in Japan
b) He now caused the Abe faction to be permanently damaged

The reason the LDP is not that worried about this state of affairs is because the LDP has an internal ecosystem where it has several parties within a party.  The figure, most likely correct, is that if things get bad enough they will just dump Kishida and them blame all the problems on Kishida and giving the new LDP PM a clean slate with a honeymoon period to potentially fight another election where they will lose seats but not lose power.

Are there any recent political assassins who have been as successful in their goals as Tetsuya Yamagami? It really seems like his goals of collapsing the Unification Church, that basically bankrupted his family, and Abe's faction, for being tied to it, have been achieved or set in motion, all from one action.

[jaichind]

Are there any recent political assassins who have been as successful in their goals as Tetsuya Yamagami? It really seems like his goals of collapsing the Unification Church, that basically bankrupted his family, and Abe's faction, for being tied to it, have been achieved or set in motion, all from one action.

I cannot recall any recent assassination that was so effective in achieving its goals.  The clear one that comes to mind but from a long way back is the Princip's assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand.  His goals were Serb nationalism and his assassination led to a series of events that led to the creation of Yugoslavia. 

[jaichind]

I forgot he got indicted in this whole mess. Speaking of which - looks likely he’s going down.

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUE224070S3A121C2000000/

Senkyo.watch only has an Ishin and JCP candidate slated to run there right now - how do you think such a by-election to replace him would go?

I think he just got indicted.  Before this everyone including me expected him to run as a LDP backed independent.  But I guess now there will be a by-election.  The CDP does have not quality candidates in this district.  They had to run a Hyogo import back in 2021.  Frankly, 柿沢未途(Kakizawa Mito) was the face of the anti-LDP opposition in this district until he defected to the LDP back in 2021.  I think it will be JRP that will take on the LDP here and most likely win since the LDP does not have a quality candidate either (their main face in this district had his own corruption scandal that forced him to resign in 2021)

[jaichind]

NHK reports that all 5 key Abe faction MPs have denied involvement in a scandal over failure to report funds from faction events.   It seems their main talking point is that they were aware that excess ticket sales from fundraising events were being given to lawmakers as kickbacks, but not that the income wasn’t recorded.   They are taking a big risk if there is evidence to the contrary.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-26/japan-s-kishida-plans-new-party-group-to-help-rebuild-trust

"Japan’s Kishida Plans New Party Group to Help Rebuild Trust"

Kishida stepped down as leader of the Kishida faction as part of the scandal blowing up.  I guess that was to pave the way for a complete restructuring of the LDP faction given the black name of the Abe faction.  Kishida being the leader of his faction when he became PM was unusual anyway and mainly reflected how weak his faction was when compared to the other bigger factions, especially the Abe faction.

It is not clear what reorganization of factions Kishida has in mind

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are there any recent political assassins who have been as successful in their goals as Tetsuya Yamagami? It really seems like his goals of collapsing the Unification Church, that basically bankrupted his family, and Abe's faction, for being tied to it, have been achieved or set in motion, all from one action.

I cannot recall any recent assassination that was so effective in achieving its goals.  The clear one that comes to mind but from a long way back is the Princip's assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand.  His goals were Serb nationalism and his assassination led to a series of events that led to the creation of Yugoslavia. 

Since the very clear majority of assassinations fail at their goals, it sets up a particularly huge contrast, given Yamagami has been completely successful.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, its hard to argue Yitzhak Rabin's assassin hasn't been pretty successful.

[Lachi]

Kyodo reporting that Shii may be replaced as chairman of the JCP at the January convention, Tamura Tomoko being named as the potential successor

https://twitter.com/kyodo_official/status/1740997190720647613

[jaichind]

Kyodo reporting that Shii may be replaced as chairman of the JCP at the January convention, Tamura Tomoko being named as the potential successor

https://twitter.com/kyodo_official/status/1740997190720647613

It does seem to make sense for him to go.  The JCP PR has been sagging the last few election cycles and part of the reason I suspect is the stale image JCP project.

JCP PR vote share under  Shii's leadership.  He led JCP to a surge in 2013-2016 (mostly due to the implosion of DPJ) but has been on a downward slide since with 2022 PR vote share lower than the 2001-2009 era.

Year   PR Vote
2001     7.91%
2003     7.76%
2004     7.80%
2005     7.25%
2007     7.48%
2009     7.03%
2010     6.10%
2012     6.13%
2013     9.68%
2014   11.37%
2016   10.74%
2017     7.90%
2019     8.95%
2021     7.25%
2022     6.82%

[Logical]

Tsunami warnings issued after M7+ earthquake in the Hokuriku region of Japan.

[jaichind]

That is a wrap for 2024

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=576635.0

Is the thread for the 2024 Tokyo governor election plus the possible 2024 Lower House snap election