2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

Spring of 2023 will be the Japan Unified local elections.

All prefecture assemblies will be up for election around April 2023 with the following exceptions:

茨城(Ibaraki) - Dec 2022
岩手(Iwate) - Sep 2023
宮城(Miyagi) - Oct 2023
福島(Fukushima) - Nov 2023
沖縄(Okinawa) - June 2024
東京(Tokyo) - July 2025

So first up would be 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly elections in Dec 2022.  It is expected to be a massive LDP landslide.  Historically LDP has been ultra-strong in 茨城(Ibaraki) at the local level.  The real opposition to LDP is a breakaway LDP faction led by long-time LDP rebel 中村喜四郎(Nakamura Kishirō) with some Center-Left and JCP presence in urban districts.  For the 2021 Lower House elections 中村喜四郎(Nakamura Kishirō) join CDP which pretty much led to the dissolution of his breakaway faction with most of its members going back to LDP.  The reunified LDP will now sweep all rural seats and the election is about how many urban seats the CDP DPP and JCP can claw out of the urban districts.  JRP will be backing DPP but JRP at the local level is non-existent.  

[jaichind]

2018 Dec 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly elections

Note for LDP CDP DPP I include rebels and independents backed by said parties

           Contest    Won    Vote share
LDP         57          45        63.63%
KP            4            4          7.51%
LDP R       6            5          5.77%  中村喜四郎(Nakamura Kishirō) LDP splinter faction
JRP           1           0           0.45%
DPP        11            5         12.06%
CDP          2            1           3.16%
JCP           8            2           7.11%

A bunch of districts was not contested by the opposition so the LDP (including LDP rebels and pro-LDP independents) vote share above if anything is an underestimate. 

Note DPP is a lot stronger here than CDP.  CDP and JCP are only relevant in urban areas.  DPP and the 中村喜四郎(Nakamura Kishirō) LDP splinter faction had some strength in certain rural areas.  Of course the 中村喜四郎(Nakamura Kishirō) LDP splinter faction has now merged back into LDP creating a new super LDP that should be able to increase its domination.

[jaichind]

For prefecture assembly elections it will be status quo with JRP gaining ground in urban areas vis a vias LDP, Center-Left, and JCP but not much changing in rural areas.  The most fun one will be 兵庫(Hyōgo) where there is a chance of a JRP surge at the expense of LDP and CDP to take away the LDP-KP majority and potentially overtake LDP as the largest party.

[jaichind]

Previous prefecture assembly election seats share by party bloc.

LDP+ = (LDP LDP rebels, pro-LDP independent, LDP regional allies)
KP 
LDP++ = LDP+ plus KP
OPPN = Center-Left
TP = Third Pole parties (JRP TPFA ex-YP)
JCP

Pref.     LDP+      KP        LDP++     OPPN      TP           JCP
北海道 53.00%   8.00%   61.00%   36.00%   0.00%   3.00%  Hokkaido
青森    64.58%   6.25%   70.83%   22.92%   0.00%   6.25%  Aomori
岩手    29.17%   2.08%   31.25%   52.08%  10.42%  6.25%  Iwate
宮城    56.90%   6.90%   63.79%   24.14%   3.45%   8.62%  Miyagi
秋田    62.79%   2.33%   65.12%   32.56%   0.00%   2.33%  Akita
山形    65.12%   2.33%   67.44%   27.91%   0.00%   4.65%  Yamagata
福島    53.45%   6.90%   60.34%   31.03%   0.00%   8.62%  Fukushima
茨城    80.65%   6.45%   87.10%    9.68%    0.00%   3.23%  Ibaraki
栃木    72.00%   6.00%   78.00%   18.00%   2.00%   2.00%  Tochigi
群馬    70.00%   6.00%   76.00%   20.00%   0.00%   4.00%  Gunma
埼玉    53.76%   9.68%   63.44%   30.11%   0.00%   6.45%  Saitama
千葉    60.64%   8.51%   69.15%   27.66%   1.06%   2.13%  Chiba
神奈川 52.38%   7.62%   60.00%   35.24%   0.00%   4.76%  Kanagawa
山梨    75.68%   2.70%   78.38%   18.92%   0.00%   2.70%  Yamanashi
東京    25.98% 18.11%   40.09%   13.39%  27.56% 14.96%  Tokyo
新潟    63.46%   3.77%   67.31%   30.77%   0.00%   1.92%  Niigata
富山    85.00%   2.50%   87.50%     7.50%   0.00%   5.00%  Toyama
石川    74.42%   4.65%   79.07%   18.60%   0.00%   2.33%  Ishikawa
福井    75.68%   2.70%   78.38%   18.92%   0.00%   2.70%  Fukui
長野    50.88% 15.79%   66.67%   22.81%   1.75%   8.77%  Nagano
岐阜    73.91%   4.35%   78.26%   19.57%   0.00%   2.17%  Gifu
静岡    61.76%   7.35%   69.12%   29.41%   0.00%   1.47%  Shizuoka
愛知    57.84%   5.88%   63.73%   34.31%   1.96%   0.00%  Aichi
三重    50.98%   3.92%   54.90%   43.14%   0.00%   1.96%  Mie
滋賀    47.73%   4.55%   52.27%   38.64%   0.00%   9.09%  Shiga
京都    50.00%   8.33%   58.33%   18.33%   3.33% 20.00%  Kyoto
大阪    18.18% 17.05%   35.23%     2.27% 60.23%   2.27%  Osaka
兵庫    50.00% 15.12%   65.12%   18.60% 10.47%   5.81%  Hyōgo
奈良    62.79%   6.98%   69.77%   11.63%   9.30%   9.30%  Nara
和歌山 69.05%   7.14%   76.19%   11.90%   2.38%   9.52%  Wakayama
鳥取    60.00%   8.57%   68.57%   28.57%   0.00%   2.86%  Tottori
島根    72.97%   5.41%   78.38%   16.22%   0.00%   5.41%  Shimane
岡山    72.73%   9.09%   81.82%   14.55%   0.00%   3.64%  Okayama
広島    65.63%   9.38%   75.00%   21.88%   1.56%   1.56%  Hiroshima
山口    68.09% 10.64%   78.72%   17.02%   0.00%   4.26%  Yamaguchi
徳島    68.42%   5.26%   73.68%   21.05%   0.00%   5.26%  Tokushima
香川    65.85%   4.88%   70.73%   24.39%   0.00%   4.88%  Kagawa
愛媛    65.96%   4.26%   70.21%   10.64% 17.02%   2.13%  Ehime
高知    59.46%   8.11%   67.57%   18.92%   0.00% 13.51%  Kōchi
福岡    60.92% 11.49%   72.41%   25.29%   0.00%   2.30%  Fukuoka
佐賀    76.32%   5.26%   81.58%   13.16%   0.00%   5.26%  Saga
長崎    69.57%   6.52%   76.09%   21.74%   0.00%   2.17%  Nagasaki
熊本    81.63%   6.12%   87.76%   10.20%   0.00%   2.04%  Kumamoto
大分    53.49%   6.98%   60.47%   34.88%   0.00%   4.65%  Ōita
宮崎    66.67%   7.69%   64.36%   20.51%   0.00%   5.13%  Miyazaki
鹿児島 76.47%   5.88%   82.35%   11.76%   3.92%   1.96%  Kagoshima
沖縄    39.58%   4.17%   43.75%   37.50%   4.17% 14.58%  Okinawa
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total   53.70%   9.39%   63.09%   22.96%   8.48%   5.47%   (weight by VAP)

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve stabilizes at a lower but above disastrous level

[jaichind]

There are delays in passing a new law to help victims of the Unification Church.  A JRP MP indicates that it is KP behind the delay with KP being concerned that the law will inhibit "appropriate" donations to religious groups.

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/local/kansai/news/20221108-OYO1T50025/

Election for open seat mayor of 兵庫(Hyōgo)'s 尼崎市 (Amagasaki) on Nov 20th.  This election shows the growth of the JRP at the local level and how politics here are beginning to resemble 大阪(Osaka).  It seems the retiring pro-LDP mayor, LDP, CDP and de facto JCP are backing a joint candidate to take on JRP.  KP is neutral. At the local level in 大阪(Osaka) that is pretty much how things work where it is everyone (except for KP) against JRP.  The fact that this race has turned out this way shows that there will be a JRP surge in the upcoming 兵庫(Hyōgo) prefecture assembly election in April 2023.
 

[jaichind]

It seems DIY will put up candidates in the upcoming 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly elections.  It would be a good test for DIY to see if they can turn their demonstrated electoral strength in the 2022 Upper House elections at the prefectural level.  I have to assume they will contest rural seats where most are LDP vs LDP vs LDP rebel battles.  DIY's pro-organic pro-decentralization anti-system anti-vax and anti-woke purity message could get some votes tired of the LDP politics of clientelism.  I will be eager to see where they nominate and what sort of results they can achieve.  Going by the history of prefecture elections in rural areas it will most likely bomb.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oita Prefecture has had only two Governors over the past 44 years. Is the incumbent going to be retiring this election cycle?

[jaichind]

茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly list of candidates so far by district

The first column is the number of MLAs for the district
The second column is the list of incumbents (one of the districts have a vacancy)
The third column is the list of candidates with incumbents highlighted in yellow (one of the KP incumbents is not running but will be replaced by another KP candidate who will certainly be reelected)

Almost all independents are LDP rebels.  In one 1- member district LDP nominated 2 candidates.

The scale of LDP domination, especially in rural 1- and 2- member districts is made clear.

There is already one DIY candidate.

[jaichind]

Latest JX PR poll

Center-Left (especially CDP) gaining from everyone else except for LDP

LDP      27.6 (+0.1)
KP         4.1  (-1.1)
DIY        1.5 (-0.3)
PNHK     0.4 (-0.2)
JRP      12.6 (-0.5)
DPP       2.3 (+0.2)
CDP     19.6 (+2.5)
RS         2.2 (+0.7)
SDP       1.2 (+0.2)
JCP        8.0 (-2.1)

[jaichind]

Some media (not sure which one) projection of Lower House snap election results.

It has LDP-KP falling below majority.  Note that JRP PR is higher than CDP PR.  DPP JCP RS SDP DIY PNHK all gain in addition to JRP at the expense of LDP and CDP in terms of PR.

 Projections like this outside election season tend to underestimate LDP

[jaichind]

Former DPJ PM 野田佳彦(Noda Yoshihiko) and now CDP MP handing out flyers at the train station about the upcoming redistricting and mostly being ignored by the passengers coming and going
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UxrVVVafNc&ab_channel=TBSNEWSDIGPoweredbyJNN

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/local/kansai/news/20221108-OYO1T50025/

Election for open seat mayor of 兵庫(Hyōgo)'s 尼崎市 (Amagasaki) on Nov 20th.  This election shows the growth of the JRP at the local level and how politics here are beginning to resemble 大阪(Osaka).  It seems the retiring pro-LDP mayor, LDP, CDP and de facto JCP are backing a joint candidate to take on JRP.  KP is neutral. At the local level in 大阪(Osaka) that is pretty much how things work where it is everyone (except for KP) against JRP.  The fact that this race has turned out this way shows that there will be a JRP surge in the upcoming 兵庫(Hyōgo) prefecture assembly election in April 2023.
 

LDP-CDP-JCP grand alliance defeats the JRP candidate by around 60-40.  JRP clearly growing in strength but still not the same level as Osaka.

[jaichind]

3 members of the Kishida cabinet formed after the 2022 Upper House elections already had to resign


A forth one with a funding scandal might be next

[jaichind]

Updated 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly list of candidates so far by district

Battle of all LDPs in rural -1 and -2 member seats with 1 JRP and 1 DIY candidate.   The only real battles will be in the multi-member urban areas where the Center-Left will take on LDP-KP.

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20221123-OYT1T50139/

LDP policy chief 萩生田 光一(Hagiuda Kōichi) gave a speech today opposing more COVID-19 restrictions if there is another wave.   He also questioned the need for masks, saying that "only Japanese wear masks at international meetings."

It is a standard Japanese political tactic to use foreigners as a way to pressure domestic opinion on issues they really wanted anyway.

And he is wrong.  The Greater China world is also stupidly stilling hanging onto masks.  Only in Oriental areas are they dumb enough to continue this mask business which was a bad idea from the beginning.  It was stupid in 2020 and it is more stupid now.

[Logical]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20221123-OYT1T50139/

LDP policy chief 萩生田 光一(Hagiuda Kōichi) gave a speech today opposing more COVID-19 restrictions if there is another wave.   He also questioned the need for masks, saying that "only Japanese wear masks at international meetings."

It is a standard Japanese political tactic to use foreigners as a way to pressure domestic opinion on issues they really wanted anyway.

And he is wrong.  The Greater China world is also stupidly stilling hanging onto masks.  Only in Oriental areas are they dumb enough to continue this mask business which was a bad idea from the beginning.  It was stupid in 2020 and it is more stupid now.

He has a point about COVID restrictions but mask wearing was prevalent in Japan even before the pandemic. Last time I was in Japan was 2019 and I remember about 60% of Tokyo Metro commuters wearing face masks.

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/local/kansai/news/20221108-OYO1T50025/

Election for open seat mayor of 兵庫(Hyōgo)'s 尼崎市 (Amagasaki) on Nov 20th.  This election shows the growth of the JRP at the local level and how politics here are beginning to resemble 大阪(Osaka).  It seems the retiring pro-LDP mayor, LDP, CDP and de facto JCP are backing a joint candidate to take on JRP.  KP is neutral. At the local level in 大阪(Osaka) that is pretty much how things work where it is everyone (except for KP) against JRP.  The fact that this race has turned out this way shows that there will be a JRP surge in the upcoming 兵庫(Hyōgo) prefecture assembly election in April 2023.
 

LDP-CDP-JCP grand alliance defeats the JRP candidate by around 60-40.  JRP clearly growing in strength but still not the same level as Osaka.

The exit poll shows that it was the KP voters that loyally voted for the LDP-CDP-JCP grand alliance candidate while there were defections from LDP CDP DPP JCP voters to the JRP candidate.  This means that for now, KP is not going over to JRP in 兵庫(Hyōgo).  If that changes after a possible JRP sweep in prefecture assembly elections in the spring that could change.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval rating curve not getting worse but not getting better either

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/fc642a4115d6df83aed31d610423ac8a116d4c33

Rumors that Kishida might dissolve the Lower House for a snap election in order to get out of the current rut he is in over Unification Church and endless scandals in his cabinet.  The idea is to gamble on a win to reset the political clock on the premise that the opposition is not ready for such a snap election.  Usually, these rumors are also a ploy to enforce discipline within the ranks of the LDP.

[jaichind]

JRP indicated that their focus in the Unified Local elections in 2023 will be

大阪(Osaka), 兵庫(Hyōgo), 奈良(Nara), 京都(Kyoto), 埼玉(Saitama), 千葉(Chiba), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 東京   (Tokyo) and 福岡(Fukuoka).  In other words urban and semi-urban parts of Kinki and prefectures with heavy urban areas outside of Kinki.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASQCT4DK7QCTUTIL00S.html

Ashai claims it has documents showing that LDP minister 秋葉 賢也(Akiba Ken'ya) paid  "membership fees" to two Unification Church groups in 2021.   He had earlier claimed he never paid any such fees to the Unification Church.  He said he is "looking into" the documents that Ashai has uncovered.  If this is true then he will have to resign and with it most likely the entire Kishida cabinet will fall and he will have to go for early elections to try to restore his power within the LDP or try to construct another cabinet that is viewed by the LDP is viable.

[jaichind]

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/12/671c6069cd19-japan-govt-to-ok-bill-to-help-people-impacted-by-religious-donations.html

"Japan gov't OKs bill to help people impacted by religious donations"

Bill to help "victims" of Unification Church passes. Due to KP's influence, this is a pretty watered-down law.  The reality is that large donations to the Unification Church usually come with a signed document saying that this gift is voluntary and not under duress.  Having that document pretty much means this law is unable to do anything against Unification Church. 

[jaichind]

Final 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly list by districts with 2018 results.  Voting day will be Dec 11th.

LDP 45 candidates (backs 2 indpendents)
KP 4 candidates
DPP 3 candidates
CDP 3 candidates
JCP  4 candidates (this is a reduction from 8 in 2018)
JRP 2 candidates
DIY 1 candidates
Local Left 1 candidate
31 independents (most are LDP rebels, a few are opposition backed)

Note 10 LDP, 1 pro-LDP independent (member of the old LDP rebel faction that have since merged back into LDP caucus), and 1 KP candidate are already elected unopposed







KP controlled media up to their old tricks again putting out headlines that the 3 KP candidates in competitive races might lose (spoiler alert: they will not)