2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/f769889954dfd429efa88360bf63fe9c54f83790

"Leaked" LDP survey has LDP going to 220 seats in a snap election.  The survey has (current seat count to result)

LDP   261 -> 220
KP      32  ->  22
JRP     41 ->  69
DPP    10 ->   16
CDP    96 -> 108
JCP     10 ->   14

CDP outperforms and JRP underperforms.

This leaves 16 seats unaccounted for which I assume is

RS                5
DIY               4
SDP              1
Indpendent   6

On the premise that CDP and JCP outperformance must mean RS underperformance.

JRP at 69 seats seems to indicate they will sweep 大阪(Osaka) and win a bunch of seats in 兵庫(Hyōgo) but will strike out most other urban centers they are trying to win seats, especially in the Greater Tokyo Kanto area.  Such underperformance there and LDP doing badly are the basis of the CDP outperformance at least according to this LDP survey.

Note that at this stage such LDP surveys always underestimate LDP so we should read this poll as LDP's floor.

[Logical]

https://newsdig.tbs.co.jp/articles/-/755562

JRP MP and leader of NPD 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) went on an unauthorized trip to Russia.  His daughter is in the LDP and will run for LDP in the upcoming election.  He might meet disciplinary action by JRP but most likely it will be a slap on the wrist.  The fact is that Suzuki is at least half if not more of the JRP in 北海道(Hokkaido)

Ishin to expel Suzuki Muneo. Guess they don't value his personal electoral strength as much as his baggage.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval curve going down again after the cabinet reshuffle bounce.

[jaichind]

PR vote average curve




PR vote average (change from a month ago)

LDP     30.0 (-0.6)
KP        5.5 (+0.7)
DIY       1.9 (+0.5)
PNHK    0.0 (-0.3)
JRP      13.6 (-0.7)
DPP       2.9 (---)
CDP      9.6 (-0.6)
RS        3.8 (-0.3)
SDP      0.5 (-0.2)
JCP       4.9 (+0.9)

KP JCP and DIY make small gains at the expense of everyone else.

[jaichind]

Polls have 長崎(Nagasaki) 4th by-election as a tossup


While polls have 徳島(Tokushima)-高知(Kōchi) Upper house by-election at a clear united opposition win

[jaichind]

The leader of the newly founded CPJ 百田 尚樹(Hyakuta Naoki) held a press conference with the TCJ mayor of 名古屋(Nagoya) 河村 たかし(Kawamura Takashi).  They announced that CPJ and TCJ will be forming an alliance and that 河村 たかし(Kawamura Takashi) will become the co-head of the new CPJ.

TCJ has been a party that JRP has been in alliance with on and off over the years.  It seems for now TCJ had decided to go with CPJ

[jaichind]

宮城(Miyagi) prefecture assembly elections on Oct 22.

History
                       2019        2015        2011         2007
LDP+                  35           33            34            41
KP                        4            4               4             4
Third Pole              2            3              4
Center-Left         13           11             13            14
JCP                      5             8              4              2

Predicted
LDP+            36
KP                  4
Third Pole       1  (JRP)
Center-Left   15
JCP                3

Third Pole in 2011-2019 is YP and post-YP MLAs.  2023 these previous YP MLAs disappear from the scene (one of them becomes a CDP backed independent).  JCP loses ground to the benefit of LDP+ and Center-Left.  JRP's base here is too weak to make large gains in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

JX poll on views toward the new CPJ

It seems only 1/3 of voters know about this new party with a majority that knows about them being negative.  CDP and JCP supporters are the most negative.  DIY supporters are the most positive by far.  By a 2 to 1 margin LDP JRP and DPP voters that know about are negative on this new party.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-kishida-asks-party-consider-possible-income-tax-cut-2023-10-20/

"Japan's Kishida asks party to consider possible income tax cut"

Kishida is looking into a temporary income tax cut to help with the surge in inflation.  I guess he has not looked into the permanent income hypothesis

[jaichind]

A chart on tax burden by income.  Income taxes (blue) are nearly nil for people at the lower income scale.  Most of their tax burden is social security payments (red), consumption tax(yellow), and real estate tax (green) (more like a poll tax).  So a temporary income tax cut tends to help those in middle and higher incomes which is not what Kishida says he is targeting for inflation help.

[jaichind]

Prediction on Sunday by-elections

長崎(Nagasaki) 4th 
CDP  51
LDP  49

徳島(Tokushima)-高知(Kōchi) Upper house 
United Opposition 55
LDP                     45

[jaichind]

https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/election/20231022-144878/

"Ex-Japan PM Kan Not to Run in Next Lower House Election"

End of an era.  Ex-DPJ PM Naoto Kan will not run in the next Lower House election.  His strong LDP opponent (who was in the DPJ before defecting to LDP) in his Tokyo 18th district from 2021 already moved to the new Tokyo 30th district and the current LDP candidate seems fairly weak.  So most likely the candidate the CDP puts up in Tokyo 18th is likely to win the seat next election.

[jaichind]

Turnout in 高知(Kōchi)  is much higher than 徳島(Tokushima) in the 徳島(Tokushima)-高知(Kōchi) Upper house seat by-election.  The United Opposition candidate was an Upper House and Lower House MP for 高知(Kōchi).  It seems in this by-election the United Opposition candidate is sure to win

[jaichind]

No matter who wins the 長崎(Nagasaki) 4th by-election the LDP and CDP candidates will have a re-match in the next lower house election for the redistricted 長崎(Nagasaki) 3rd.    The newer district lines are more favorable to LDP so even of CDP wins the LDP candidate (who is a dynast) is likely to win in the next general election.

[jaichind]

Voting ends.  徳島(Tokushima)-高知(Kōchi) Upper house by-election called for United Opposition candidate right away.  It seems this is going to be a long night for LDP.

[Logical]

Tokushima-Kochi exit poll

Not even close

[jaichind]

Tokushima-Kochi exit poll

Not even close

Just to show that in Southern rural Japan it is more about the candidate than the party.  The LDP candidate vote is way below the LDP-KP base in these two prefectures.

[jaichind]

長崎(Nagasaki) 4th by-election exit polls seem to give a small edge to the LDP candidate.  If he can pull this off it would be a relief to Kishida.

[jaichind]

CPJ leader 百田 尚樹(Hyakuta Naoki) has been giving a bunch of speeches in Tokyo last few days.  They seem to be packed.    His message, in addition to the anti-LGBT agenda, also targets LDP for their dynasts.  CPJ so far is following the trend of DIY a couple of years ago.  It seems they could get around 2% of the PR vote if they run in the next Lower House election but they are likely to do better in an Upper House election PR vote.  They will hurt LDP but most likely hurt DIY more.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll for 長崎(Nagasaki) 4th seems to have it at LDP 52 CDP 48

[jaichind]

The 徳島(Tokushima)-高知(Kōchi) Upper house by-election winning 広田 一(Hirota Hajime) candidate won 高知(Kōchi) 2nd in 2017 over the LDP incumbent 56.5-43.5 but lost in 2021 to the LDP candidate 31.5-67.2.  The reason why is the 2021 LDP candidate was a popular ex-governor.   Relative candidate quality matters a lot here.

[jaichind]

Exit poll for 長崎(Nagasaki) 4th party support is

LDP   49
KP       3
DIY     1
JRP     4
DPP    2
CDP   15
RS      1
SDP    1
JCP     2

Which seems fairly positive for CDP relative to JRP.  The candidate running against LDP being from CDP must also play a factor.

The CDP candidate swept all partisan loyalties except LDP-KP but failed to win enough LDP defectors to win.

[jaichind]

Only rural areas are reporting so far in 宮城(Miyagi) prefecture assembly.  All things equal LDP is underperforming and JCP is outperforming.  Things are not looking good for LDP but we will know more once the urban votes come in.

[jaichind]

長崎(Nagasaki) 4th  called for LDP

[Logical]

Final results

Tokushima-Kochi
OPP 62.2
LDP 38.8

Joint opposition candidate won in both prefectures

Nagasaki 4th
LDP 53.5%
CDP 46.5%

LDP did pretty well considering the government is sitting at ~30% approvals. Encouraging sign for Kishida if he chooses to call an election.