2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20230618/k00/00m/010/040000c

We will see if this is a trend but Mainichi's latest poll is a disaster for Kishida

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval   33(-12)/58(+12)  (change from May)

Its PR vote is also very bad for LDP

LDP          25
KP             4
DIY            4 !!
JRP          17
DPP           4
CDP         13
RS             6 !!
SDP           1
JCP            7

LDP underperforms while JRP and CDP polling reasonably well under the circumstances and DIY and RS both outperform.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve continues to fall as the G7 Summit bump continues to recede


Party support average has JRP falling while JCP RS DIY rising while LDP support has fallen since the winter and there does not seem to be a recovery

[jaichind]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/06/02/national/my-number-id-health-insurance/

"Japan enacts law to merge health insurance cards with My Number IDs"

It seems this law has much to do with the recent Kishida cabinet approval fall.

[jaichind]

Latest JX PR poll (change from May)

General dealignment with a significant drop for JRP and a significant increase for JCP.  Despite this JRP still ahead of CDP

LDP          28.5 (-1.7)
KP             6.4 (+2.0)
DIY            1.6 (--)
PNHK         0.8 (-0.3)
JRP          16.2 (-2.6)
DPP           2.0 (-1.0)
CDP         14.6 (+0.3)
RS             1.7 (-1.3)
SDP           0.9 (--)
JCP            8.1 (+1.8 )

[jaichind]

Mainichi poll on party support broken out by gender (Male-Female)

LDP   30    28
KP      3      5
JRP   16    13
DPP    4      1
DIY    3      3
CDP    8    13
RS      7      1    !!!
SDP    0      1
JCP     5      7

CDP is the female left party while RS is the male left party.  Non-LDP Center-Right (JRP and DPP) also has a male lean, especially DPP.  Non-RS Center-Left parties (CDP SDP JCP) have a female lean.

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA212H00R20C23A6000000/

小沢一郎(Ozawa Ichirō) is up to his old tricks and forms his own faction with CDP with 15 MPs.  Look for this group to perhaps break off and party-ize this faction if elections are called.

[jaichind]

JX Constituency polls

大阪(Osaka) 3rd

2021
KP      44.7
CDP    23.4
JCP     21.4
Right  10.5  (will run for DIY in next election)

This poll shows the doom of KP in Kinki once JRP shows up



京都(Kyoto) 3rd - CDP leader's seat

2021
CDP   48.2
LDP    33.3
JRP    18.5

JRP gains from LDP but other than that not much change




東京(Tokyo) 7th - completely redistricted so no real comparison.  LDP will run its current popular Upper House MP

JRP surges.  CDP has the edge in a 3-way race.

[jaichind]

JX Constituency polls

大阪(Osaka) 3rd

2021
KP      44.7
CDP    23.4
JCP     21.4
Right  10.5  (will run for DIY in next election)

This poll shows the doom of KP in Kinki once JRP shows up

From my 2021 PR -> district vote analysis of this district

One topic that has always interested me is where KP gets its votes at the district level since it is clear that the LDP base will NOT always transfer its votes to KP.  I will be doing regression analysis of different districts that KP ran to get a sense of how the PR -> district vote broke down.

First up is 大阪(Osaka) 3rd where it was

KP              44.65%
LDP rebel    10.47%
CDP            23.44%
JCP             21.44%

And the PR vote was

LDP           18.42%   
KP             16.58%   
PNHK           0.97%   
JRP            39.61%   
DPP             1.98%   
CDP             8.79%   
RS               3.07%   
SDP             0.83%   
JCP              9.76%

Note that nearly 8% of that PR voters failed to vote the district votes which should be LDP and JRP voters that do not want to vote KP but could not vote for CDP nor JCP either.  Using regression on the subdistricts  I was able to construct the following PR -> District vote table

                   KP       LDP rebel     CDP        JCP      DNV
LDP             55%        25%           5%      10%       5%
KP               95%                         5%
PNHK             5%          5%        25%                   65%
JRP             35%         15%        30%        5%      15%
DPP             30%                       50%      10%      10%
CDP                                          50%       50%      
RS                 5%                      50%       35%       10%
SDP             10%                      30%        50%      10%
JCP                                            5%        95%
 
So the large JRP PR vote split 35-30 between KP and CDP with the rest going to the LDP rebel and Did not Vote.  Only 55% of the LDP PR vote voted for KP with a bunch going to the LDP rebel.  CDP PR vote split 50-50 between CDP and CDP.  The CDP candidate is an ex-MP parachute candidate that ran and won before from another Osaka district.  The lack of local roots meant that the defection of the CDP PR vote to JCP was high.  KP still made up some of the losses from the LDP PR vote by getting some votes from DPP RS and SDP PR votes.  With CDP and JCP splitting the anti-LDP vote and JRP vote split multiple ways the KP was destined to win even if it lost a bunch of the LDP PR vote.

We can conclude that the latest JX poll has a majority of the LDP vote defecting to JRP.  KP will be left with the KP PR vote and perhaps a third of the LDP PR vote.  The relative decline of the LDP rebel turned DIY is clear since a lot of his vote came from LDP PR and JRP PR voters which will go JRP this time.  The CDP candidate will get the Center-Left PR (CDP RS JCP) vote and that is it.  Everything else goes to JRP.

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20230622-PCOWVL6N6FO7NEWHJ4FBZ467GA/

Despite the LDP planning to endorse its candidate in Tokyo 29th, KP says that it will still end its alliance with LDP in Tokyo

Part od the problem ia that Kishida had promised to the LDP Conservative bloc that he will get Constitution Revision by 2024 without getting KP ok for that promise.  He had to do it over LDP Conservative bloc backlash over Kishida pushing forwad the LGBT bill into law. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20230622-PCOWVL6N6FO7NEWHJ4FBZ467GA/

Despite the LDP planning to endorse its candidate in Tokyo 29th, KP says that it will still end its alliance with LDP in Tokyo

Part od the problem ia that Kishida had promised to the LDP Conservative bloc that he will get Constitution Revision by 2024 without getting KP ok for that promise.  He had to do it over LDP Conservative bloc backlash over Kishida pushing forwad the LGBT bill into law. 

Does this set up KP as JRP allies in Tokyo+Kinki and LDP allies everywhere else?

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20230622-PCOWVL6N6FO7NEWHJ4FBZ467GA/

Despite the LDP planning to endorse its candidate in Tokyo 29th, KP says that it will still end its alliance with LDP in Tokyo

Part od the problem ia that Kishida had promised to the LDP Conservative bloc that he will get Constitution Revision by 2024 without getting KP ok for that promise.  He had to do it over LDP Conservative bloc backlash over Kishida pushing forwad the LGBT bill into law. 

Does this set up KP as JRP allies in Tokyo+Kinki and LDP allies everywhere else?

That would be ideal for KP.  LDP will not let them get away with this of course.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20230622-PCOWVL6N6FO7NEWHJ4FBZ467GA/

Despite the LDP planning to endorse its candidate in Tokyo 29th, KP says that it will still end its alliance with LDP in Tokyo

Part od the problem ia that Kishida had promised to the LDP Conservative bloc that he will get Constitution Revision by 2024 without getting KP ok for that promise.  He had to do it over LDP Conservative bloc backlash over Kishida pushing forwad the LGBT bill into law. 

Does this set up KP as JRP allies in Tokyo+Kinki and LDP allies everywhere else?

That would be ideal for KP.  LDP will not let them get away with this of course.

Would the LDP settle for KP making deals with both JRP and LDP in Tokyo?

[jaichind]

Would the LDP settle for KP making deals with both JRP and LDP in Tokyo?

No way.  LDP's position will be "if you (KP) make an alliance with JRP anywhere else (as in backing the JRP candidate) then the alliance is off and you are out of national government if LDP wins a majority.  If you managed to get JRP to back your candidate in Kinki without you endorsing any of their candidates against the LDP we are fine with that."

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Would the LDP settle for KP making deals with both JRP and LDP in Tokyo?

No way.  LDP's position will be "if you (KP) make an alliance with JRP anywhere else (as in backing the JRP candidate) then the alliance is off and you are out of national government if LDP wins a majority.  If you managed to get JRP to back your candidate in Kinki without you endorsing any of their candidates against the LDP we are fine with that."

So the ball might be in the JRP and KP's court then. If the LDP line is too hard and that blows up the alliance, that's a risk they are willing to accept.

[jaichind]

https://www.nhk.or.jp/politics/articles/statement/100215.html

Rengo wants a CDP-DPP seat-sharing alliance. CDP seems open to it but DPP seems negative, mostly due to concern that CDP will also have an alliance with JCP.  In the end, the DPP will do separate seat-by-seat deals with both CDP and JRP.

[jaichind]

Would the LDP settle for KP making deals with both JRP and LDP in Tokyo?

No way.  LDP's position will be "if you (KP) make an alliance with JRP anywhere else (as in backing the JRP candidate) then the alliance is off and you are out of national government if LDP wins a majority.  If you managed to get JRP to back your candidate in Kinki without you endorsing any of their candidates against the LDP we are fine with that."

So the ball might be in the JRP and KP's court then. If the LDP line is too hard and that blows up the alliance, that's a risk they are willing to accept.

What KP wants is unreasonable.  It is literally "heads I win, tails you lose."   What KP wants is: where the LDP-KP alliance helps LDP, KP wants the alliance to be off so KP can do deals with JRP to help KP win more seats.  KP will back LDP where LDP most likely will win without KP support anyway but KP expects LDP to support KP in seats where KP needs LDP support and JRP is a non-factor.

It is a total joke and a self-serving position that will get rejected out of hand by LDP.  Still, KP now seems to want to platy a game of chicken with LDP to maximize the number of seats it can win.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Would the LDP settle for KP making deals with both JRP and LDP in Tokyo?

No way.  LDP's position will be "if you (KP) make an alliance with JRP anywhere else (as in backing the JRP candidate) then the alliance is off and you are out of national government if LDP wins a majority.  If you managed to get JRP to back your candidate in Kinki without you endorsing any of their candidates against the LDP we are fine with that."

So the ball might be in the JRP and KP's court then. If the LDP line is too hard and that blows up the alliance, that's a risk they are willing to accept.

What KP wants is unreasonable.  It is literally "heads I win, tails you lose."   What KP wants is: where the LDP-KP alliance helps LDP, KP wants the alliance to be off so KP can do deals with JRP to help KP win more seats.  KP will back LDP where LDP most likely will win without KP support anyway but KP expects LDP to support KP in seats where KP needs LDP support and JRP is a non-factor.

It is a total joke and a self-serving position that will get rejected out of hand by LDP.  Still, KP now seems to want to platy a game of chicken with LDP to maximize the number of seats it can win.

Given all these options, it seems KP should just take what LDP will give them. Those three district seats in Osaka aren't worth this much.

[jaichind]

Given all these options, it seems KP should just take what LDP will give them. Those three district seats in Osaka aren't worth this much.

It is actually 6.  4 in Osaka and 2 in Hyōgo.  Historically KP has been strong in urban Western Japan and weak in the rural North so for legacy reasons 6 out of the 9 KP district seats are in urban Kinki.   If KP loses these 6 and even if it claws another 1-2 from LDP elsewhere it will still not save them for the appearance of a major defeat ergo the need for more dramatic action.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/41dfab303ae2d6a7374e8ee15cb67edef509658b

Talks about a split within KP where Deputy leader 北側 一雄(Kitagawa Kazuo) seems to be for an alliance with JRP while others are opposed.

[jaichind]

The situation in KP seems to be: East Japan KP -> rejects alliance with JRP.  West Japan KP -> for an alliance with JRP.  This is the first time ever I have seen an open split within KP since it was refunded in 1998.  The last time KP had such as split was pre-1998 over pro- and anti- Ozawa positions which the anti-Ozawa position won out.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/ac07c7f0b58560a9476127f34eec80512bc716cb

JRP to field candidates in the 6 KP held seats in Kinki.  This closes any chances of a JRP-KP tactical alliance.  KP will not have to crawl back to LDP in Tokyo.  The local Tokyo LDP is said to be very angry at KP and threatened to back LDP rebels in seats allocated by the LDP high command to KP. There will be a bunch of repair work to be done between LDP-KP before the election can be called.

[jaichind]

In the upcoming election, JRP should be careful to make sure it nominates a few PR-only candidates in Kinki.

The reason is that most parties (except KP) take advantage of the "best loser" rule to allow losing candidates in district elections to take PR seats allocated to said party.  But such allocation can only take place within the same electoral zone of which Kinki is one of them.

In Kinki, there will be 45 FPTP seats available and 28 PR seats available.   In a JRP landslide there I can see JRP winning something like 33 out of 45 district seats and 14 out of 28 PR seats.  This means JRP will have 12 "losers" to take PR seats but if they do not have a few PR-only candidates they will lose 2 seats due to lack of candidates to claim them.   In 2009 DPJ made this mistake and underestimated its wave in Kinki and lost 5! PR seats there.  YP made the same mistake and lost a seat there as well.  A smaller version of this also took place in 東海(Tōkai).   In 2017 CDP made the same mistake in 東海(Tōkai) and lost a seat it was supposed to get by failing to nominate enough candidates.

I advise JRP to learn from this and get a few PR-only candidates nominated in Kinki in case the JRP wave there becomes massive.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will any of the Komeito incumbents holding a district be voted out of parliament?

[Logical]

Will any of the Komeito incumbents holding a district be voted out of parliament?

All 6 KP incumbents in Kansai will no doubt lose if JRP goes ahead and stand in their seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will any of the Komeito incumbents holding a district be voted out of parliament?

All 6 KP incumbents in Kansai will no doubt lose if JRP goes ahead and stand in their seats.

But Komeito will be able to take some seats through proportional representation. Depending on how many seats it wins in the proportional representation bloc, would it really be impossible for them to place their six district incumbents on the top of the lists?