2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

JRP mayor of 堺市(Sakai) in Osaka prefecture wins 61-39 over the pro-LDP candidate.  Exit polls show the scale of JRP party ID here.

Party ID

LDP     17
KP        5
JRP     45
DPP      1
CDP      4
RS        1
JCP       5


The JRP incumbent was able to get almost half the LDP and KP vote.  It is with the center-left opposition and independents that the pro-LDP candidate is able to get some votes.

[jaichind]

Tokyo prefecture by-election in 大田区(Ota City).  TPFL MLA and LDP MLA both had resigned to run for other offices needing by-elections which were CDP-JCP united front candidate and LDP candidate respectively.

Results were
CDP-JCP united front    32.40% (elected)
LDP                            26.83% (backed by KP) (elected)
JRP                             20.19%
TPFA                           13.77%
Minor Left                     5.87%
Pro-PNHK                      0.92%



The sum of votes here in the prefecture elections in 2021 were

LDP             22.61%
KP               18.76%
pro-PNHK       0.59%
TPFA            17.43%
JRP              11.41%
DPP               3.44%
CDP             10.37%
Minor Left      1.62%
JCP              13.19%

It seems JRP and Center-Left parties are gaining ground against LDP and TPFA.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-08/coalition-cracks-may-not-stop-japan-pm-kishida-from-calling-early-vote

"Coalition Cracks May Not Stop Japan’s Kishida From Calling Early Vote"

Bloomberg article about likely snap election despite LDP-KP seat-sharing issues

It has a link to a poll

https://newsdig.tbs.co.jp/articles/-/527085



This points out 59% of KP supporters are for the LDP-KP alliance but 57% of LDP supporters are for ending the LDP-KP alliance.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve bump over the G-7 summit is receding a bit as it goes underwater by a small margin.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/2778a1323571b9a4ab83eb52e4c9ec53b7adbd78

LDP internal report says if the LDP-KP alliance is ended then the LDP will lose up to 56 seats in a Lower House election

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-opposition-head-says-preparing-early-elections-kyodo-2023-06-10/?taid=64847c0fcf93b30001ebc666

Japan opposition head says preparing for early elections, Kyodo reports

DPP getting ready for snap elections

[PSOL]

The LDP will never break the alliance with KP. They are the only thing ensuring continued governance of Japan.

[jaichind]

It seems more and more likely there will be a snap election this year.  The question now is will it be called in late June for July or will it take place in the Fall?

[jaichind]

On political talk shows it seems to be the CDP that is the most opposed to a snap election saying it is wasteful and a trick by the LDP to increase taxes to increase military spending.  JRP makes similar attacks but seems to be for a snap election.  The reason for this is clear. CDP has the most to lose from a snap election and JRP has the most to gain from a snap election.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve bump over the G-7 summit continues to recede even as talk of early election grows stronger.  If CDP and JRP votes are split even a small underwater approval number should be good enough for a solid LDP victory as long as the KP vote behaves.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-kishida-may-dissolve-parliament-same-day-if-no-confidence-vote-submitted-2023-06-14/

"Japan's Kishida may dissolve parliament on same day if no-confidence vote submitted -Fuji TV"

Election coming soon?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-14/upstart-japan-party-sees-coalition-cold-war-delaying-election

"Upstart Japan Party Sees Coalition ‘Cold War’ Delaying Election"

JRP says the election is more likely in the fall since LDP needs to work out relationship issues with KP first.

[jaichind]

It seems CDP will submit a no-confidence motion.  The ball is in Kisida's court now.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/31a4d210e2b66fd3485a6898badc03cdfe80f556?source=sns&dv=pc&mid=other&date=20230615&ctg=dom&bt=tw_up

It seems a leaked internal LDP survey on a snap election has LDP and KP taking heavy losses.  It has

LDP   220
KP      23
DIY      1
JRP    75
DPP     9
CDP  114
RS       6
JCP    13
Others 9 (1 SDP, 1 pro-LDP, and 7 opposition would be my guess)

Traditionally LDP "survey leaks" tend to be overly negative for LDP usually as a way of downplaying expectations.  This one might be the works of people within LDP that are trying to influence Kishida not to call an election until the LDP-KP relationship is fixed.

One main problem with this survey is that it adds up to 470 seats when there are 465 seats.  The number that is the big surprise in this survey is CDP at 114.  I am going to read this survey as CDP 109 and that CDP at 114 is a typo since that would get the results to be 465 seats.

If we go with that my back-of-the-envelope seat distribution by seat type guess would be

          District      PR        Total         PR vote share guess
LDP      157         63         220                  31.0%
KP           3          20          23                  11.5%
DIY          0           1            1                    3.0%
JRP        34          41          75                  21.0%
DPP         5            4           9                     4.0%
CDP       80          29        109                  14.0%
RS           0            6           6                    5.0%
SDP         1            0           1                     1.5%
JCP          1          12         13                     8.0%
Ind          8            0           8  (1 pro-LDP, 7 anti-LDP)

This would mean
a) KP wiped out in Kinki by JRP
b) JRP sweeps urban Kinki and wins 3-4 of urban seats outside of Kinki
c) JRP eats into LDP KP DPP and CDP PR votes
d) DIY eats into the LDP PR vote
e) RS and JCP eat into CPD PR vote
f) Some KP vote defection to CDP in FPTP seats to help CDP outperform in district seats
g) Some JRP vote for CDP in seats where JRP are not running or not viable to help CDP outperform in district seats

Which would ironically mean CDP does terribly in PR seats but vastly outperform in district seats.

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA15A690V10C23A6000000/

Kishida says "he is not thinking about dissolving the Lower House"

Ok, so the July election is out and in theory, a Fall election is still possible.

[jaichind]

The case against elections now is that the G-7 KIshida cabinet approval bump is fading fast



The case for elections ASAP is that if LDP-KP relationship continues to breakdown and the collapse then there is a specter of  CDP-JRP-KP-DPP anti-LDP anti-JCP grand alliance. I guess i the end Kishida went against elections ASAP.

[CumbrianLefty]

There has been a lot of election speculation though, so could backing off harm Kishida?

[jaichind]

There has been a lot of election speculation though, so could backing off harm Kishida?

I was thinking the same thing with respect to a repeat of what happened to Gordon Brown in 2008.   This does not seem to be as big of a deal in Japan.  Abe did this a few times in 2016 and 2019 and it did not seem to have harmed LDP's electoral prospects.  I think for this to be true Kishida has to either a) actually have an election in the Fall or b) shut down all rumors of elections.  If there continues to be talk of elections and it does not take place with the perception that Kishida is afraid of losing it then it will start to hurt Kishida and LDP.

[jaichind]

Due to redistricting, LDP stronghold 山口(Yamaguchi) is going from 4 to 3 seats.   This is a problem since the prefecture is the home base of both the Abe clam and Foreign Minister 林芳正(Hayashi Yoshimasa) who is the number 2 within the Kishida faction.  After much behind-the-scenes battle, the 3 seats will be 1 for the Abe faction, 1 for the Kishida faction (林芳正(Hayashi Yoshimasa)), and 1 for the Asō faction.

The last Abe faction incumbent must be moved to the PR section which is a big prestige hit.   So this battle is a victory of the Kishida faction over the Abe faction.

[Logical]

If Abe was alive Hayashi would've been kicked up to the PR lists.

[jaichind]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-PM-says-won-t-dissolve-parliament-during-current-session

"Japan PM says won't dissolve parliament during current session"

So what Kishida said is no dissolution during the current session.  So a Fall election is a very real possibility.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/684be868abd9de15b9cefe37b6377525ada40f49

History repeats itself.  There are some rumors that Tokyo Governor Koike (the villain of 2017 from the opposition point of view) might form an alliance in the upcoming elections.  I suspect her role would be part of some JRP-DPP bloc with some potential tactical alliance with KP on a regional basis.   It seems such a plan would be something the KP is hatching up if things blow up with LDP.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/d5c79d0874204a2fbd96e5c01066abe7797c7d0f

There are more and more rumors that as LDP-KP cannot get to an agreement on seat sharing in Tokyo that KP will do a separate regional deal with JRP where JRP will support KP in their seats in Kinki as a condition for KP supporting JRP in the rest of Kinki and Tokyo.  JRP will win all the Osaka seats no matter what but in 兵庫(Hyōgo) if JRP can get KP support they could sweep the entire prefecture.  In Tokyo, JRP-KP could win a few seats together. 

All this might be just a ploy by KP to scare LDP into giving up ground in Tokyo but it seems LDP is concerned.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/d5c79d0874204a2fbd96e5c01066abe7797c7d0f

There are more and more rumors that as LDP-KP cannot get to an agreement on seat sharing in Tokyo that KP will do a separate regional deal with JRP where JRP will support KP in their seats in Kinki as a condition for KP supporting JRP in the rest of Kinki and Tokyo.  JRP will win all the Osaka seats no matter what but in 兵庫(Hyōgo) if JRP can get KP support they could sweep the entire prefecture.  In Tokyo, JRP-KP could win a few seats together. 

All this might be just a ploy by KP to scare LDP into giving up ground in Tokyo but it seems LDP is concerned.

That's a rather fascinating solution.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/d5c79d0874204a2fbd96e5c01066abe7797c7d0f

There are more and more rumors that as LDP-KP cannot get to an agreement on seat sharing in Tokyo that KP will do a separate regional deal with JRP where JRP will support KP in their seats in Kinki as a condition for KP supporting JRP in the rest of Kinki and Tokyo.  JRP will win all the Osaka seats no matter what but in 兵庫(Hyōgo) if JRP can get KP support they could sweep the entire prefecture.  In Tokyo, JRP-KP could win a few seats together. 

All this might be just a ploy by KP to scare LDP into giving up ground in Tokyo but it seems LDP is concerned.

If Komeito flips then it seems like it would be very difficult to form a government in an LDP minority scenario. I guess JRP and Komeito together might drive a hard bargain but I was under the impression that a lot of their demands were mutually incompatible. An opposition grand alliance (assuming JRP + KP + CDP + DPP + JCP had a majority) seems pretty hard to imagine too.

[jaichind]

https://www.jiji.com/sp/article?k=2023061700309&g=pol

It seems LDP will back down in Tokyo and yield the seata KP has been demanding there to repair the alliance.