2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

FNN poll for next PM

                                           All      LDP supporters
石破　茂(Ishiba Shigeru)       14.2%          14.4%
河野太郎(Kōno Tarō)              10.7%         13.4%
小泉進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō)  10.4%         10.2%
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)          8.3%         15.5%
菅　義偉(Suga Yoshihide)        8.0%           8.5%
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)        6.2%            6.4%

Kishida's numbers do not look so hot but Kono's numbers also fell a lot from 2021.

[jaichind]

The latest Mainichi might be an outlier but the results seem very bad for Kishida

The difference is relative to the July poll

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval 26(-2)/68(+3)

Did the government explain the Fukushima water release well/not well  26/60

Inflation impact
Large      62
Some      30
Small        7
None        1

PR vote
LDP         21(-4)
KP            3(-1)
DIY           2(-2)
JRP         21(+4)
DPP          6(+2)
CDP        10(-3)
RS            8(+2)
JCP           5(-2)

LDP CDP loses a bunch of ground to JRP DPP and RS.  JRP surged to tie LDP.  JCP is now behind both RS and DPP after losing some ground. 

[jaichind]

Latest PR voting intentions curve




PR vote average (change from a weeks ago)

LDP     30.8 (+0.1)
KP        4.6 (+0.2)
DIY       1.5 (-0.3)
PNHK    0.4 (-0.1)
JRP      14.6 (+0.7)
DPP       2.8 (+0.3)
CDP      9.7 (-0.5)
RS        4.0 (---)
SDP      0.5 (-0.1)
JCP       4.1 (-0.3)

CDP and JCP loses ground to JRP

[CascadianIndy]

The Mainichi poll looks like an outlier – but at this rate, does Kishida even do a snap election? Ishin’s slowly building itself up – feels like the best gambit for the LDP would be to do to him what they did to Suga (i.e. keep him around as a punching bag and then dump him before the presidential election).

Curious as to how far RS can go as well – I think they could crack 10% if the CDP continues its lethargy, but could they break 10 seats? Ishin would be more than happy to steamroll them in Kansai, and every little bit counts…

[jaichind]

The Mainichi poll looks like an outlier – but at this rate, does Kishida even do a snap election? Ishin’s slowly building itself up – feels like the best gambit for the LDP would be to do to him what they did to Suga (i.e. keep him around as a punching bag and then dump him before the presidential election).

Curious as to how far RS can go as well – I think they could crack 10% if the CDP continues its lethargy, but could they break 10 seats? Ishin would be more than happy to steamroll them in Kansai, and every little bit counts…

Kishida has to be careful about the timing of polls.  Doing so now clearly is a problem.  But waiting until late next year means that he could face real opposition in the LDP Prez contest in 2024 if cabinet approval and LDP PR vote number stays where they are now.

[jaichind]

In addition to 岩手(Iwate) assembly elections on Sept 3rd there is also the election for mayor of 立川市(Tachikawa) which is one of the ward cities of Tokyo.

In 2019 the opposition unity candidate lost to the pro-LDP incumbent by a tiny margin.  This time it is an open seat with both MLAs of the district running (the opposition unity candidate from 2019 and the LDP MLA).  TPFA is also running with DPP support.  Note that KP is allowing a free vote in this one which clearly is making this race a very close 3 way race.

In the 2021 Tokyo Assembly election the LDP and opposition candidate edge out the TPFA candidate with a tiny vote difference between the two.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/sp/articles/ASR80644FR80UTFK00N.html

LDP-KP alliance in Tokyo finally back on. This makes sense given the all our JRP war on KP having  been declared.  Big setback for Koike who have been working for an anti-LDP front consisting of JRP KP and TPFA.  

[Logical]

https://www.asahi.com/sp/articles/ASR80644FR80UTFK00N.html

LDP-KP alliance in Tokyo finally back on. This makes sense given the all our JRP war on KP having  been declared.  Big setback for Koike who have been working for an anti-LDP front consisting of JRP KP and TPFA.  

With the last stumbling block in LDP's election strategy cleared, it's purely up to Kishida now whether or not to call a snap election this fall.

[jaichind]

JRP primary results for party member vote of Osaka 5th and Osaka 6th candidate selection to take on the two KP incumbents.  I am surprised at how small the size of the JRP party members in these two districts.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/f0e7935f85f10b66684ab46e3fc5cf4dd9e098c7

LDP self-goal.  LDP  Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries 野村 哲郎(Nomura Tetsuro) said that he " discussed Fukushima's "contaminated water" with the PM today"  Of course he is 80 which is quite understandable he would get his wording wrong.  In other words, he pulled a "Biden."  Anyway, he came out to apologize but refused to resign.

[jaichind]

So far JRP is going to run 4 sitting Upper House MPs in the Lower House election.

They are Hyogo 8th (against KP), Osaka 5th (against KP), Osaka 3rd (against KP), and Tokyo 1st (3-way LDP CDP JRP marginal).   They are also running their 2022 Upper Hosue Tokyo candidate who barely missed being elected in Tokyo 29th (against KP.)

In Saitama 14th the JRP is also running their 2022 Upper House candidate who was the best loser (but it was not as close as Tokyo) against the KP.

It seems JRP is going all out to do well in this upcoming Lower House election by throwing in all their talent pool at it.  They seem to be targeting KP since they seem to be vulnerable and hold some high-profile seats.

[jaichind]

It seems in the upcoming race for 立川市(Tachikawa) mayor JRP will back the pro-LDP candidate even as KP takes a neutral stance.  The Left parties consolidate around the pro-CDP candidate.

[jaichind]

The upcoming DPFP leadership contest is interesting and will determine DPFP's stance in the next election.

Incumbent DPFP leader Tamaki Yuichiro has steered the party closer to LDP, cooperating with them in the diet on many issues, even voting for the budget. If he wins he is open to changing the party's name to distance itself from its DPJ heritage. The challenger is ex foreign minister, former DPJ and DP leader Maehara Seiji. His platform is fully returning DPFP into the opposition, embracing a confrontational attitude against the LDP and forming a broad front of anti LDP non JCP parties (which includes JRP).

Tamaki has the support of industrial unions that back DPFP while Maehara is more popular among rank and file party members. All things given, Tamaki should be considered the favorite to win.

Current DPP leader 玉木 雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō) wins the DPP leadership race by a wide margin

[jaichind]

My prediction 岩手(Iwate) assembly elections along with results from 2019 2015 and 2011

                            2023 pred       2019           2015           2011
LDP                          17                14               13               13
KP                             1                  1                 1                 1
Anti-Ozawa                4                  5                 8                 4
DIY                            1    
JRP                            1
Center-Left               22               25                23               28
JCP                            2                 3                 3                  2

Politics in 岩手(Iwate) at the local level is abnormal.  Due to the influence of Ozawa over the decades along with his strong personality, the Center-Left split a couple of decades ago into pro-Ozawa and anti-Ozawa blocs.  The anti-Ozawa Center-Left became allies of the LDP-KP since they were the only significant anti-Ozawa force in the prefecture.  The various anti-Ozawa regional parties are Center-Left in orientation but I count them as Third Pole given their de facto alliance with LDP-KP.

I expect the LDP to get a surge and gain some seats.  The DIY expected winner is a DPP MLA who defected to DIY.  The JRP's expected winner is a former pro-LDP MP who spent time in LDP and then YP. 

[jaichind]

岩手(Iwate) governor election is also tomorrow.  The pro-opposition incumbent should win although the LDP is putting up a fight this time.  The pro-LDP-KP candidate is a curent anti-Ozawa Center-Left MLA.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASR926TSGR92UTIL00H.html

It seems likely that by mid-October the Unification Church will lose its legal status as a religion due to illegal fundraising practices.  I am sure they are guilty but this again sounds like selective prosecution for political reasons because there are plenty of cults operating in Japan that I am sure use similar practices.  Sort of like Scientology in Germany.

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20230903-OYT1T50038/

Now that 玉木 雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō)  has won re-election as DPP leader it is possible that LDP will work to integrate DPP into the ruling coalition.  The main problem is that KP is likely to block it as it fears such a move will dilute its own power.

[jaichind]

岩手(Iwate) governor election called for the pro-opposition incumbent to win by something like 59-41 over the pro-LDP-KP candidate.  This is a good result for LDP-KP as in 2019 it was 72-28.  This is a sign that my prediction of a LDP surge in the prefecture assembly election is likely to come true.

[jaichind]

It seems in the upcoming race for 立川市(Tachikawa) mayor JRP will back the pro-LDP candidate even as KP takes a neutral stance.  The Left parties consolidate around the pro-CDP candidate.

Pro-CDP candidate wins

Pro-CDP     38.7%  (backed by JCP)
pro-LDP      35.9%  (backed by JRP)
Pro-TPFA     20.4%  (backed by DPP)

It seems KP being neutral was deadly for the pro-LDP candidate

[jaichind]

My prediction 岩手(Iwate) assembly elections along with results from 2019 2015 and 2011

                            2023 pred       2019           2015           2011
LDP                          17                14               13               13
KP                             1                  1                 1                 1
Anti-Ozawa                4                  5                 8                 4
DIY                            1    
JRP                            1
Center-Left               22               25                23               28
JCP                            2                 3                 3                  2

Politics in 岩手(Iwate) at the local level is abnormal.  Due to the influence of Ozawa over the decades along with his strong personality, the Center-Left split a couple of decades ago into pro-Ozawa and anti-Ozawa blocs.  The anti-Ozawa Center-Left became allies of the LDP-KP since they were the only significant anti-Ozawa force in the prefecture.  The various anti-Ozawa regional parties are Center-Left in orientation but I count them as Third Pole given their de facto alliance with LDP-KP.

I expect the LDP to get a surge and gain some seats.  The DIY expected winner is a DPP MLA who defected to DIY.  The JRP's expected winner is a former pro-LDP MP who spent time in LDP and then YP.  

The Governor election was pretty much the same as exit polls
Pro-Opposition incumbent      59.2%
Pro-LDP-KP                           40.8%

The assembly election result was, as expected, a swing toward LDP

                 Seats      Predicted
LDP+           17           17
KP                 1            1
Anti-Ozawa    4            4
DIY                1            1
JRP                0            1
Center-Left   23          22
JCP               2             2

I got all the seats correctly except for 2 districts.  They are:

a) In a 2-member district, I predicted LDP to win 1 seat when the Center-Left swept both.  In terms of votes, I was way off since the inexperienced LDP candidate did not come close to winning.  The LDP base here would justify LDP winning a seat but the candidate quality gap was too large.

b) In the large 11-member district of the prefecture capital city of 盛岡(Morioka) a pro-LDP independent won as opposed to the JRP candidate which I expected.  The gap between the two was 22 votes.  So I was 22 votes from getting this district correct.

In the one 5-member and 2-4-member districts I got the exact ranking by vote share correctly as well although they were all very close and it was mostly luck I happen to guess correctly in terms of vote share rank.

As a result of my mistake in a) the Center-Left-JCP bloc keeps a bare majority versus losing the majority under my prediction.

[jaichind]

Even though there were different districts where it was a walkover in different years it would still be useful to look at the vote share of each bloc over time in the 岩手(Iwate) assembly elections

                               2023           2019           2015           2011
LDP                        29.63%       26.26%       23.47%        25.84%
KP                            1.57%         1.93%        1.89%          1.62%
Anti-Ozawa               6.70%         7.11%       15.47%        10.98%  
Third Pole                 2.51%                                               0.95%
Center-Left             54.50%        58.50%       51.83%        56.00%
JCP                          5.09%          6.20%        7.03%          4.45%

The Center-Left bloc historically over-nominates due to different sub-factions and gets a lot fewer seats than their vote share would imply they would get.  The LDP vote share gain is less than I expected but they won the same number of seats as I predicted mostly due to poor vote allocation within the Center-Left bloc.

[jaichind]

Relected DPP leader 玉木 雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō) rules out joining the ruling alliance.  DPP will still be part of the opposition most likely having tactical alliances with CDP and JRP depending on the district.

[jaichind]

https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20230906-134920/

"Kishida Mulls Candidates for Cabinet, Party Reshuffle amid Stubborn Poll Numbers"

If true that means chances of a fall election is low

[jaichind]

In a coup for the LDP, the pro-DPP independent MP of 徳島(Tokushima) 1st district has joined the LDP and most likely will be nominated in the next Lower House election

He is a long-time member of DPJ and has run repeatedly for DPJ and lost every time with the exception of 2009 when he was elected on the PR slate as a best loser.  2021 was a breakthrough for him winning as a pro-DPP independent.


I guess he knows the pro-LDP lean of 徳島(Tokushima) so he figured the best way to keep on winning is to defect to LDP.   The old LDP incumbent and the 2021 best-loser PR MP ran for and won the seat of governor so there is no conflict on bringing in the pro-DPP independent for LDP to ensure that they win this seat.   Another demonstration of "if you win you are LDP"

[jaichind]

The Kashida cabinet approval/disapproval curve recovering slowly as he moves away from the danger zone of below 30% approval