2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

If JRP is going on an all-out war against KP then there is another danger for KP, 北海道(Hokkaido) 10th where KP narrowly won against CDP in 2017 but won by a larger margin in 2021 against CDP.  Even if JRP does not run a candidate there is danger.  LDP-KP outperformed in 2021 in 北海道(Hokkaido) due to de facto support of the JRP vote.  This time around they should not expect the same support especially where KP is running.  JRP being out to get KP could make 北海道(Hokkaido) 10th very close and could be even worse for KP if JRP does NOT run a candidate as the JRP vote might consolidate around CDP.

[jaichind]

DIY candidates nominated so far are concentrated in urban areas or parts of the rural South.  They are not touching rural North seats.  There will be more candidates for sure but the pattern so far makes it clear DIY's assessments on where they are strong (urban areas and rural South areas)


Part of this is also related to "where DIY could win PR seats".  The reality is that urban areas has larger PR sections where DIY with low vote share will have a chance at winning a PR seat ergo the greater need to run district candidates there to drive up the DIY PR vote.

[jaichind]

With the election some time away (most likely Fall), CDP's strategy seems to be to use the extra time to work out deals with DPP RS JCP, and JRP on a seat-by-seat basis.  CDP focusing on alliance talks with JCP back in 2021 allowed LDP to tie CDP to the JCP.  CDP's strategy this time is to do this under the radar on a seat-by-seat basis to remove this LDP line of attack.  Back in 2021, CDP's goal is to take away the CDP-KP majority on its own strength ergo the need to squeeze out every possible win by doing a deal with JCP.  This time with CDP weaker and JRP coming in also to eat seats from LDP-KP CDP's strategy is more about survival ergo they will be less aggressive on broad alliance talks with JCP and focus on winning seats without hurting CDP's image with Center-Right voters.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/85288104f49cdd0a2e4e020c4ce15fd98f36c625

Former faction leader 石原 伸晃(Ishihara Nobuteru) who unexpectedly lost his Tokyo seat in 2021 by a large margin is so negative about winning a seat in a district election that he will not run in the likely Lower House election and will instead run for Upper House.  Popular Upper House Tokyo MP 丸川 珠代(Marukawa Tamayo) will run for Lower House this time and assuming she at least makes it on the PR slate of best loser there will be a by-election for Tokyo Upper House soon which Ishihara will want to run in.

[Logical]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/85288104f49cdd0a2e4e020c4ce15fd98f36c625

Former faction leader 石原 伸晃(Ishihara Nobuteru) who unexpectedly lost his Tokyo seat in 2021 by a large margin is so negative about winning a seat in a district election that he will not run in the likely Lower House election and will instead run for Upper House.  Popular Upper House Tokyo MP 丸川 珠代(Marukawa Tamayo) will run for Lower House this time and assuming she at least makes it on the PR slate of best loser there will be a by-election for Tokyo Upper House soon which Ishihara will want to run in.

There won't be a by-election if there is just one vacancy. He's preparing for 2025.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/85288104f49cdd0a2e4e020c4ce15fd98f36c625

Former faction leader 石原 伸晃(Ishihara Nobuteru) who unexpectedly lost his Tokyo seat in 2021 by a large margin is so negative about winning a seat in a district election that he will not run in the likely Lower House election and will instead run for Upper House.  Popular Upper House Tokyo MP 丸川 珠代(Marukawa Tamayo) will run for Lower House this time and assuming she at least makes it on the PR slate of best loser there will be a by-election for Tokyo Upper House soon which Ishihara will want to run in.

There won't be a by-election if there is just one vacancy. He's preparing for 2025.

Ah good point.  Thanks for correcting me

[CascadianIndy]

Had some time today and made some charts aggregating some JX/Go2Senkyo polls. Diamonds indicate individual polls, circles indicate election results.



First is with the LDP included.



Second is with the LDP excluded.



Third is with the CDP and Ishin excluded.

Out of all of this, it seems that there's a pattern of the CDP underperforming slightly and the JCP undeperformance varies. Meanwhile, Komeito massively outperforms every time due to a shy voter effect, Ishin, DPP, and RS all overperform moderately.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/ec3c8e9964c7e08fffb2483022d9cb1963f64df4

Looks like LDP has a candidate for Tokyo 28th.  KP was hoping to be able to contest from that seat in addition to Tokyo 29th which KP already rangled from LDP.  The basic idea is that KP will be wiped out of Kinki by JRP so needs more seats to contest to make up for the lost numbers ergo KP was hoping to get Tokyo 28th in addition to Tokyo 29th.  Looks like LDP's answer to that is a big No.

[jaichind]

PR vote average

LDP     33.3
KP        4.5
DIY       1.8
PNHK    0.5
JRP      15.2
DPP       3.2
CDP     10.2
RS        3.7
SDP      0.7
JCP       4.8

[CascadianIndy]

DPFP and RS both sent to be up a bit, with Ishin majorly up – somehow the CDP is still flat. Ouch.

[jaichind]

DPFP and RS both sent to be up a bit, with Ishin majorly up – somehow the CDP is still flat. Ouch.

LDP-KP numbers do not look that hot either.  CDP most likely is under polling.  Unlike the Upper Hosue elections last year, the thresholds are higher for Lower House elections so marginal CDP-DPP, CDP-RS, and CDP-SDP voters mostly tactical voted away from CDP last year but will most likely come home to CDP in the Lower House PR vote.  Still, most likely JRP will beat CDP in the PR vote in the likely upcoming Lower House election in the Fall.

[jaichind]

https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2023070500096/

"Japan Digital Min. Kono Apologizes for My Number Card Problems"

The My Number Card link to the medical system continues to be a flop which will be a drag on LDP.  The good news for Kishida is that his intra-party rival Kono is the Digital Minister so he will take the blame.  Perhaps Kishida knew that this was going to be a flop so he appointed his intra-party rival Kono to be in charge of this area last year just in time to take the blame for him.

[jaichind]

Latest NHK poll on My Number Card link to the medical system.

22% for containing the drive the link the two
36% Delay in implementation
35% Cancel this policy


Youth and LDP-KP voters tend to back moving on with this policy.

[Logical]

In Aichi 15th district JRP poached a former MP who ran for CDP in 2021 but lost. Will be interesting to see if he can do better under their banner.

[jaichind]

In Aichi 15th district JRP poached a former MP who ran for CDP in 2021 but lost. Will be interesting to see if he can do better under their banner.

I have that seat as a safe LDP seat.  JRP did get a bunch of CDP and LDP rebels (more from the prefecture and city level) to run for them in urban and suburban districts.  The main problem with these rebels they recruited is that they are running in districts where it is not competitive and JRP is unlikely to win.  All these moves will help push up the JRP PR vote though.

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20230712/k00/00m/010/355000c

The pro-opposition governor of 静岡(Shizuoka) barely survived a vote of no confidence vote (which required a 3/4 majority) by 1 vote (50 to 18).  It seems a couple of years ago in a campaign speech he said he will donate part of his salary and expense budget to the development of some township.  It turned out that he did not do so.  As a result, LDP-KP which has 49 out of 68 MLA pushed for this vote of no confidence hoping to get 2 defectors from the opposition camp to join them.  They got 1 but not 2 defectors so the vote failed.

[jaichind]

After learning the lesson of being tied to JCP, the CDP this time around is timider about doing deals with the JCP in the hope of also being to do some deals with DPP and even JRP.  In response, the JCP is adding to the seats that it will run in to put pressure on CDP.  This should help LDP but in some cases, it could also help JRP.

One example is 奈良(Nara) 1st district.

In 2017 LDP won this seat

LDP   40.8%
HP    39.7%
JCP     9.8%
JRP     9.7%

In 2021 JCP withdrew and handed the HP-turned-CDP candidate a win along with a JRP surge.

CDP   39.0%
LDP   35.1%
JRP    26.0%

This time around all 3 2021 candidates will run but JCP will run again and most likely will take down the CDP candidate.  But with the  JRP surge in Kinki, the candidate most likely to win with part of the Center-Left vote going to JCP would actually be JRP and not LDP.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval curve continues to fall although the rate of the fall has slowed.  It does seem that 35 might be the floor for the Kishida cabinet.


LDP party support is falling

[jaichind]

Updated PR vote polling average




PR vote average (change from a week ago)

LDP     32.4 (-0.9)
KP        4.1 (-0.4)
DIY       2.0 (+0.2)
PNHK    0.7 (+0.2)
JRP      15.2 (---)
DPP       2.9 (-0.3)
CDP     10.7 (+0.5)
RS        3.6 (-0.1)
SDP      0.7 (--)
JCP       4.6 (-0.2)

CDP and anti-system Right parties gain from the other mainstream parties.

[jaichind]

Latest JX PR poll

LDP    28.8 (+0.3)
KP       4.0 (-2.4)
DIY      1.2 (-0.4)
PNHK   0.8 (--)
JRP    16.8 (+0.6)
DPP     2.0 (--)
CDP   14.5 (-0.1)
RS      2.6 (+0.9)
SDP    0.9 (--)
JCP     8.3 (+0.2)



KP loses a bunch of ground.  JRP and RS gain ground.  LDP-KP is down from the last poll.  This trend is not good for LDP-KP

[jaichind]

LDP candidate for 大阪(Osaka) 11th withdraws and declines to run. Such is the state of the JRP lead in Osaka that LDP is now struggling to get people to run in what are now considered no-hope seats.  LDP is a bunch of such strongholds which discourage non-JCP opposition candidates from running which hurts the opposition parties in the PR vote.  This logic is now being played out on the LDP in Osaka.

[jaichind]

Asahi poll has 50-41 support for the Fukushima wastewater release policy.

[jaichind]

It seems JRP is ready to run a sitting Upper House MP for the KP-held Osaka 3rd district.  If so it will become a KP (backed by LDP) vs JRP vs CDP vs JCP vs DIY (was a LDP rebel) battle.  If JRP holds the JRP base it should be enough to win even without likely defections of some LDP voters toward the JRP candidate.

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20230720-NTUS3EKL5VIKFJQBXAB7NHVRME/

JRP plans to project itself as a conservative alternative to LDP, especially on the foreign policy front. JRP has already had contact with old GOP Speaker of the House Gingrich and look forward to getting a meeting with Trump.

[jaichind]

Former  Chief Cabinet Secretary and LDP MP 河村 建夫(Kawamura Takeo) and a member of the Nikai faction was forced to retire in 2021 so his 山口(Yamaguchi) 3rd district seat was given to the #2 in the Kishida faction and now Foreign Minister 林芳正(Hayashi Yoshimasa).

It seems he is sort of getting revenge as JRP will be running his eldest son in CDP-held Tokyo 6th district and most likely cut off the LDP route to capture this seat from CDP.  The PR image is not good for LDP so in response, LDP will run 河村 建夫(Kawamura Takeo) second son as a PR-only candidate just to show "河村 建夫(Kawamura Takeo) might have retired but he is still with LDP, his second son is running as a LDP PR candidate"