Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

"In Kherson, the RUS actually shortened the lines of defense so as to be within range of their own artillery from the eastern bank of the Dnieper. I am talking about a 5-10 km retreat towards Chersoń. These are the effects of the problem with the supply of artillery ammunition."

That ties in with my post above, except this one has the whole line dropping back.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8761162#msg8761162

"    So if the RU army is is retreating to have artillery cover from the other side of the river, they face two problems.
    First of all, they get squeezer in between the AFU and a river. That cant be good.
    — Def Mon (@DefMon3) September 11, 2022

    This actually sounds like a retreat to me. The Russians would do that with the cover of massive amount of artillery, so they need to be closer to the Dnipro to do that."



This is getting over the old man's head a bit. The RU needs to get to the other side of the river and abandon Kherson in two installments, once in the dark of night to get within the range of the RU big guns across the river, and then they can get their asses across the river in installment 2 bit by bit over the pontoon bridges that Ukraine will be shooting at. Is that right?

And just how does that work if the guns Ukraine is using on the pontoons is outside the range of the RU guns across the river? I get it that it will slow Ukraine down doing hand to hand combat within range of the Russian guns across the river, but I think the idea is to shoot at the pontoons instead. Then the RU leaves most of their equipment behind, and the Russians if need be can just swim across assuming they are in good enough shape to do that.

Haven't we seen this movie before, like say yesterday and earlier today?

The good news for the Russians is that they have a shorter defense perimeter. The bad news is that their guys will be without much equipment.

PS: Reading the text of that amazing and most moving Zelensky message to Putin, I have concluded that he had two fathers, Winston Churchill and Moses. Between the forces of good and evil, Zelensky and Putin, a nation has been annealed into something that will never be broken, and forever outside Russia's orbit.

I wonder how Putin will enjoy his new role as a subordinate of Xi.

[NOVA Green]

"In Kherson, the RUS actually shortened the lines of defense so as to be within range of their own artillery from the eastern bank of the Dnieper. I am talking about a 5-10 km retreat towards Chersoń. These are the effects of the problem with the supply of artillery ammunition."

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1569039235159625736?s=20&t=K0PugVmP2UIBYL...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1569039982009917446?s=20&t=K0PugVmP2UIBYL...

On that note GMLRS are likely increasingly coming into play for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/MBielieskov/status/1569004469630763009?s=20&t=BJQMxPk3xq...

Link to NYT article from 9/9/22 below:

General Milley said on Thursday that the Pentagon had given “thousands” of GMLRS rockets to Kyiv, but the exact number fired by Ukrainian forces is unclear.

Ukraine had soldiers who were experienced in using artillery rockets, and they quickly mastered both the HIMARS and the GMLRS. The soldiers took advantage of the launcher’s speed — they were able to drive quickly to new targets, fire and reload fast, and drive away before Russian artillery could target their position.

The American rockets had a greater range than that of the Soviet-era weapons the Ukrainian soldiers had used before, and soon they were able to attack targets Russia had believed were safely out of range, like arms depots and command posts.

The attacks on command facilities have kept Russian leaders on the move and have disrupted their communications, making it more difficult for them to direct combat operations.

And now, Ukrainian soldiers are using the GMLRS to attack bridges behind enemy troops near the southern city of Kherson, leaving the Russians with fewer ways to escape.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/09/us/ukraine-weapons-rockets.html

[Person Man]

The usual Russian response to military failure, targeting civilian infrastructure:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1569025874690994176?s=20&t=MBmMs11W...

Blackouts have been reported in large parts of eastern Ukraine as electricity and water infrastructure has been attacked. As your post acknowledges, individual sets of missile attacks like this are the norm, but not at this scale (at least since the first phase).

My guess is that this is the missile tantrum I predicted (meant to console the ultranationalists like Girkin), but it might disrupt logistics enough in the short term to allow the collapsing front line to stabilise. Attacks on this kind of infrastructure are not inherently war crimes and can have military value - the US used them in Iraq to cause confusion, but it was able to follow this up with a coordinated air campaign which Russia doesn't seem to be capable of.

Let's hope the damage can be repaired in good order and that aid is stepped up (including humanitarian to help with this).

Looks like this might also be causing blackouts within Russia itself...

https://twitter.com/newsistaan/status/1569021323980197888?s=20&t=XRKimUJKGxd...

So they used one of their few remaining cruise missiles to turn off the lights not only in the enemy’s city but there’s too? N-D chess!

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The usual Russian response to military failure, targeting civilian infrastructure:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1569025874690994176?s=20&t=MBmMs11W...

Blackouts have been reported in large parts of eastern Ukraine as electricity and water infrastructure has been attacked. As your post acknowledges, individual sets of missile attacks like this are the norm, but not at this scale (at least since the first phase).

My guess is that this is the missile tantrum I predicted (meant to console the ultranationalists like Girkin), but it might disrupt logistics enough in the short term to allow the collapsing front line to stabilise. Attacks on this kind of infrastructure are not inherently war crimes and can have military value - the US used them in Iraq to cause confusion, but it was able to follow this up with a coordinated air campaign which Russia doesn't seem to be capable of.

Let's hope the damage can be repaired in good order and that aid is stepped up (including humanitarian to help with this).

Zelensky's response:

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1569044030272454663?s=20&t=Nm0MV6Nu...

"Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as frightening and deadly for us as your friendship and brotherhood."

Holy s*** that is an all-time quote.

[jaichind]

Russian positions now look like USSR positions before the Second Battle of Kharkov

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

What are the chances the Ukraine army repels the attacks?

If Russia fully commits, 0.1%. They can make it a costly victory tho, if their chain of command or supply lines don't get cut.

/snip

Didn't age well.

I'm willing to bet half of this thread is nothing but badly aged takes

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the chances the Ukraine army repels the attacks?

If Russia fully commits, 0.1%. They can make it a costly victory tho, if their chain of command or supply lines don't get cut.

/snip

Didn't age well.

I'm willing to bet half of this thread is nothing but badly aged takes

Yep.

[Person Man]

It seems Russia's retaliation has all of unoccupied Ukraine without power

That should just increase the Ukrainians’ resolve. If Russians are doing this to them now, imagine what they will be doing to them if they are able to overrun enough of their country. And if they are able to do that, imagine what they then will do.

[Person Man]

Russian positions now look like USSR positions before the Second Battle of Kharkov

And they got spanked like the little bitches they were. Pushed almost to the caucuses.

[Torie]

Two power facilities illuminated all of Ukraine? That doesn't make any sense to me. I don't trust that image.

[rc18]

Two power facilities illuminated all of Ukraine? That doesn't make any sense to me. I don't trust that image.

That's because the image is fake.

[Omega21]

Not stopping yet, Kharkov channels report new arrivals by the minute

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It seems Russia's retaliation has all of unoccupied Ukraine without power

That should just increase the Ukrainians’ resolve. If Russians are doing this to them now, imagine what they will be doing to them if they are able to overrun enough of their country. And if they are able to do that, imagine what they then will do.

I am 100% confident this is just a photoshop of the Earth at Night composite that NASA did like a decade ago.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_earth_at_night.jpg

[jaichind]

It seems Russia's retaliation has all of unoccupied Ukraine without power

That should just increase the Ukrainians’ resolve. If Russians are doing this to them now, imagine what they will be doing to them if they are able to overrun enough of their country. And if they are able to do that, imagine what they then will do.

I am 100% confident this is just a photoshop of the Earth at Night composite that NASA did like a decade ago.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_earth_at_night.jpg

Apologies if that is the case

[Torie]

It seems Russia's retaliation has all of unoccupied Ukraine without power

That should just increase the Ukrainians’ resolve. If Russians are doing this to them now, imagine what they will be doing to them if they are able to overrun enough of their country. And if they are able to do that, imagine what they then will do.

I am 100% confident this is just a photoshop of the Earth at Night composite that NASA did like a decade ago.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_earth_at_night.jpg

Apologies if that is the case

Accepted if and only if you reveal the provenance of the fake image. And of course it's fake because it is at once too perfect and a very inefficient way to power a very large nation. It would be like Niagra Falls powering the entire east coast.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The claims on what was hit in the missile strike(s) vary and may be confused with the oblasts affected. At least one large power plant in Kharkiv was hit, which might have had the potential to affect power supply in other oblasts and Belgorod.

There are also claims about restoration of power everywhere it was affected, although most of them do not mention Kharkiv. We will find out how true they are soon enough, but this data from a few hours ago would indicate power has been mostly restored everywhere but Kharkiv:

https://twitter.com/netblocks/status/1569056284720209921?s=20&t=m66d6td03NPO...
The Kyiv Post claims the strike(s) delayed trains from Odesa and Kyiv to Kharkiv. This might have delayed the current Ukrainian offensive, but if so, probably only for a few hours.

[Frodo]

As if losing its status as a world superpower after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact wasn't enough, Russia is done as a Great Power too -its unmitigated failure in Ukraine has merely sealed the deal:

The Russian Army Is Losing A Battalion Every Day As Ukrainian Counterattacks Accelerate

[Middle-aged Europe]

Now that Ukraine has demonstrated its capability to, in theory, win the war it has stoked a new political debate in Germany to supply the country with further weapons systems, up to and including the Leopard 2 main battle tank. The downside is, as usual, that we are gonna debate this for the next couple of weeks and when a decision is finally reached it will take another three months or so until the first tanks actually reach Ukraine, owing in large parts to an inefficient military bureaucracy and a generally substandard defence minister.

[MasterJedi]

As if losing its status as a world superpower after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact wasn't enough, Russia is done as a Great Power too -its unmitigated failure in Ukraine has merely sealed the deal:

The Russian Army Is Losing A Battalion Every Day As Ukrainian Counterattacks Accelerate

China can’t also be happy about this. Both big world evils show their militaries are not on par with the US.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As if losing its status as a world superpower after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact wasn't enough, Russia is done as a Great Power too -its unmitigated failure in Ukraine has merely sealed the deal:

The Russian Army Is Losing A Battalion Every Day As Ukrainian Counterattacks Accelerate

China can’t also be happy about this. Both big world evils show their militaries are not on par with the US.

China might not be unhappy. If Russia is weakened enough, then Russia is minted as a Chinese client state.
A weakened Russia would be good for the world. But be careful what you wish for.

[Torie]

Now that Ukraine has demonstrated its capability to, in theory, win the war it has stoked a new political debate in Germany to supply the country with further weapons systems, up to and including the Leopard 2 main battle tank. The downside is, as usual, that we are gonna debate this for the next couple of weeks and when a decision is finally reached it will take another three months or so until the first tanks actually reach Ukraine, owing in large parts to an inefficient military bureaucracy and a generally substandard defence minister.

Do Germans feel any sense of embarrassment about this? I have never understood very well my Teutonic cousins, and still don't.

[Omega21]

Now that Ukraine has demonstrated its capability to, in theory, win the war it has stoked a new political debate in Germany to supply the country with further weapons systems, up to and including the Leopard 2 main battle tank. The downside is, as usual, that we are gonna debate this for the next couple of weeks and when a decision is finally reached it will take another three months or so until the first tanks actually reach Ukraine, owing in large parts to an inefficient military bureaucracy and a generally substandard defence minister.

Do Germans feel any sense of embarrassment about this? I have never understood very well my Teutonic cousins, and still don't.

Neither the US nor the UK have supplied main battle tanks to Ukraine (despite far larger stocks), so not really a valid point in this particular regard.

Feel free to critize other (lack of) deliveries though.

[Torie]

Now that Ukraine has demonstrated its capability to, in theory, win the war it has stoked a new political debate in Germany to supply the country with further weapons systems, up to and including the Leopard 2 main battle tank. The downside is, as usual, that we are gonna debate this for the next couple of weeks and when a decision is finally reached it will take another three months or so until the first tanks actually reach Ukraine, owing in large parts to an inefficient military bureaucracy and a generally substandard defence minister.

Do Germans feel any sense of embarrassment about this? I have never understood very well my Teutonic cousins, and still don't.

Neither the US nor the UK have supplied main battle tanks to Ukraine (despite far larger stocks), so not really a valid point in this particular regard.

Feel free to critize other (lack of) deliveries though.

It is obvious to me that the US and Ukraine are in each other's basements as it were, planning this out together, almost hour by hour now, the US spy capabilities surprisingly awesome, along with the hardware. Thank God, yes thank God so says this atheist, that Biden is POTUS rather than Trump.  I bow my head over that in thanks.

[NOVA Green]

Now that Ukraine has demonstrated its capability to, in theory, win the war it has stoked a new political debate in Germany to supply the country with further weapons systems, up to and including the Leopard 2 main battle tank. The downside is, as usual, that we are gonna debate this for the next couple of weeks and when a decision is finally reached it will take another three months or so until the first tanks actually reach Ukraine, owing in large parts to an inefficient military bureaucracy and a generally substandard defence minister.

Having lived in Germany a couple times back in the early / mid '90s, I certainly understand the reticence when it comes to providing significant and advanced and potentially offensive weapons systems to other countries.

Took Joschka Fischer, who was in an SPD-GREEN Coalition GVT in '99 to support German military intervention in the former Yugoslavian Wars, while meanwhile there had long been controversy regarding exporting German military arms and equipment to Turkey to wage their genocidal war against the Kurds.

I remember way back some 25 years ago the slogan: " Deutsche Waffen, deutsches Geld, morden mit in aller Welt!" being chanted at street demos, of which I might have attended a few back in the dayz...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

State TV starts to draw closer to reality. Negotiations or mobilisation?

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1569070513909022720
Also featuring criticism of the intelligence services. Aligns with Kadyrov claiming Putin must have been misinformed by someone. The fear of windows appears to be waning.