Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

This town is one of the largest held by Russia north of Kharkiv, seems they are evacuating the whole Oblast.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1568887188351496193?s=20&t=bcnBgg...

If they leave that part of the border area, life in the city of Kharkiv will become more bearable as less of Russia's artillery arsenal will be able to hit it.

Ukraine will still have to man the border, but in the long term, this will probably free up troops for them, too. You can't easily build minefields or tear up transport infrastructure in front of territory you want to retake, but you can do that on your border.

Hoptivka is also in the border area north of Kharkiv that was occupied by Russia. It's 8km southeast of Kozacha Lopan. So indeed it seems Russia has left that area:

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1568981328317521921?s=20

And confirmed from the Russians themselves that they're aban...excuse me "regrouping" from Kharkiv oblast:

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1568927566936920064?s=20

[Torie]

It appears that the subject rail line is about to be cut, with Ukraine's forces already 20 miles east of the Oskol River. From the NYT:


7 minutes ago

Carly Olson
Ukraine’s military said in its evening update that Russian troops “hastily” withdrew from the town of Svatove in the Luhansk region. The claim — which could not be independently verified — came after the military governor of the Luhansk region, Serhiy Haidai, described “intense” combat and said the Ukrainian military appeared poised to seize the town.



It appears to me that "the plan" now is to try to retain the land bridge to Crimea, and declare victory. Good luck with that.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1569012395380539392?s=20

[Torie]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/11/world/ukraine-russia-war

This article quotes Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a research group in London, about what Russia’s options are now. He lists two of them, neither of which seem like good ones to me. They include:

1. Send in the ill trained newly formed 3rd Army Corps into the battle. [That seems nutter given how better trained troops have performed lately.]

2. Move Russian troops stationed on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, near the Zaporizka region, farther east as defensive reinforcements. [Who is going to defend the Kherson area front then? The next thing you know that land bridge to Crimea will be cut. That seems to suck as an option.]

My guess is that Russia’s final play is to try to hold that land bridge. One thing that is gone and is not coming back is the separatist quisling rump state that Putin previously grabbed in the Donbas. The quisling infrastructure and its troops have been functionally destroyed, with local popular support dissipated. Whatever is to be held of the rump entity, will have to be done by Russian troops themselves. I tend to doubt Ukraine will want to let Putin have the coming winter to consolidate some of what is left to effectuate that.

Assuming that Ukraine does not go after Crimea right away, I think it reasonable to think that the hot phase of this war will cool down by the end of the year. We shall see if Ukraine destroys that bridge to Crimea in the next month or two.  

I wonder what the prospects of a peace deal where 1) Putin gets to keep Crimea on a demilitarized basis pending some sort of referendum, and sanctions end, in exchange for 2) Putin gives up everything else in Ukraine, and Ukraine joins NATO and the EU.

That would seem to take Ukraine permanently off the table for Putin, and permanently off the table is the only thing that makes sense. This has got to be the last act, and the end of the play.

[NOVA Green]

Ukrainian recent battlefield successes increasing pressure on Germany to speed up promised weapons deliveries.

Six months later, many weapons Germany promised Kyiv have yet to arrive. Mr. Scholz has not fully explained the delays, and has not widely publicized the German weapons that have been delivered.

During a visit to Kyiv on Saturday, Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, sounded noncommittal when her Ukrainian counterpart explicitly asked for Leopard tanks.

“In this new phase of the war, Ukraine needs weapons that will enable it to liberate Russian-held territory and keep it under permanent control,” said Michael Roth, a lawmaker from Mr. Scholz’s Social Democratic Party and the chairman of the foreign affairs committee in the German Parliament. “This would not have been possible without the delivery of modern Western weapons — also from Germany.”

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/11/world/ukraine-russia-war#germany-weapons

[MasterJedi]

The Russian/Chinese slaves in the Middle East and Africa are going full force propaganda push right now so it must not be going well for sure.

[NOVA Green]

Lyman appears to still be contested, despite earlier reports of it being liberated.


https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1569021588355354624?s=20&t=XRKimUJKGxdoT2...

[Storr]

Free T-80 tanks, to a good home:
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1568881357215997952?s=20&t=TA9EmSYT9yiph...

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile WSJ published a story earlier today about life in Russian Occupied Kherson City.

Anyways--- very long article so here are just a few select snippets.

Explosions shake the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson throughout the day. Internet, electricity and water are sporadic. Prices for basic goods, such as food and soap, are skyrocketing. Hundreds of cars are lined up trying to leave the city. By 4 p.m., the streets are empty.

On TV, banner ads at the bottom of the screen promise 10,000 Russian rubles, about $165, to anyone who turns in Ukrainian sympathizers. Troops roam the city in trucks, pulling down garage doors and breaking into apartments in search of Ukrainian partisans.

“We’re avoiding anywhere Russian soldiers might be,” she said. “It’s easy to end up in the basement”—a shorthand locals use for being detained by Russians.

The threat of detention shapes life in Kherson as much as the strikes. Since the occupation began, more than 500 residents of the region have been detained, according to reports compiled by the Ukrainian regional prosecutor, Volodymyr Kalyuga, who is working in absentia from Odessa. More than 200 remain in custody or unaccounted for. Photos of missing people are posted on walls around the city.

Natalya, who said her husband was detained just over a month ago, refuses to open a Russian bank account, though her Ukrainian bank was forced to close months ago. Her children in Europe send money to her Ukrainian bank card, and she shops at stores where knows the owners or clerks, who let her use card terminals hidden under the counter or in the back.

Like many residents, she now keeps two phones: one that she uses at home with a virtual private network to access Ukrainian sites that are now blocked by the Russian internet providers, and another that is wiped of all personal data that she takes out in public, in case she is stopped somewhere.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainians-in-kherson-resist-russian-occupiers-and-hope-for-their-armys-arrival-11662888601

[Storr]

The usual Russian response to military failure, targeting civilian infrastructure:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1569025874690994176?s=20&t=MBmMs11W...

[NOVA Green]

Been a bit since we've seen a tractor video posted here...

https://twitter.com/rshereme/status/1569020993422622721?s=20&t=XRKimUJKGxdoT...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The usual Russian response to military failure, targeting civilian infrastructure:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1569025874690994176?s=20&t=MBmMs11W...

Blackouts have been reported in large parts of eastern Ukraine as electricity and water infrastructure has been attacked. As your post acknowledges, individual sets of missile attacks like this are the norm, but not at this scale (at least since the first phase).

My guess is that this is the missile tantrum I predicted (meant to console the ultranationalists like Girkin), but it might disrupt logistics enough in the short term to allow the collapsing front line to stabilise. Attacks on this kind of infrastructure are not inherently war crimes and can have military value - the US used them in Iraq to cause confusion, but it was able to follow this up with a coordinated air campaign which Russia doesn't seem to be capable of.

Let's hope the damage can be repaired in good order and that aid is stepped up (including humanitarian to help with this).

[NOVA Green]

The usual Russian response to military failure, targeting civilian infrastructure:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1569025874690994176?s=20&t=MBmMs11W...

Blackouts have been reported in large parts of eastern Ukraine as electricity and water infrastructure has been attacked. As your post acknowledges, individual sets of missile attacks like this are the norm, but not at this scale (at least since the first phase).

My guess is that this is the missile tantrum I predicted (meant to console the ultranationalists like Girkin), but it might disrupt logistics enough in the short term to allow the collapsing front line to stabilise. Attacks on this kind of infrastructure are not inherently war crimes and can have military value - the US used them in Iraq to cause confusion, but it was able to follow this up with a coordinated air campaign which Russia doesn't seem to be capable of.

Let's hope the damage can be repaired in good order and that aid is stepped up (including humanitarian to help with this).

Looks like this might also be causing blackouts within Russia itself...

https://twitter.com/newsistaan/status/1569021323980197888?s=20&t=XRKimUJKGxd...

[Torie]

Does this blackout have actual military significance?

[President Johnson]

Been a bit since we've seen a tractor video posted here...

https://twitter.com/rshereme/status/1569020993422622721?s=20&t=XRKimUJKGxdoT...

This is more of an indictment on Germany, to be honest. We need to do more. It was embarrassing enough it took that long to end Northstream 2 or even approving the project in the first place.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1568990010338152448?s=20&t=jKWQoiJga...

[NOVA Green]

Does this blackout have actual military significance?

Good question... it's not like London during The Blitz in WW II, where you turn off the lights to avoid air strikes / bombing raids.

Germany did a lot of their armored movements at night during the Battle of the Bulge to avoid allied air detection.

I guess in theory might be easier to conduct low flying helicopter missions to avoid portable air air systems?

Still, unless Russia did this to caught off power to occupied territories of Ukraine to cover night-time retreats, difficult to see the military value here, but maybe I'm missing something.

Regardless, looks like we know where the targeted attacks on civilian infrastructure originated from (exact geolocation pending).

https://twitter.com/Cyx_5/status/1569012403802611713?s=20&t=XRKimUJKGxdoT27H...

[Torie]

The missiles that blacked out Karkiv were shot from Russian ships in the Black Sea?

[Omega21]

The missiles that blacked out Karkiv were shot from Russian ships in the Black Sea?

Caspian and black sea!

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1569019974626189312

Apparently the Kalibrs are excellent. Luckily for Ukraine, for every Kalibr made, 10 are lost due to corruption lol.

[NOVA Green]

The missiles that blacked out Karkiv were shot from Russian ships in the Black Sea?

Caspian and black sea!

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1569019974626189312

Apparently the Kalibrs are excellent. Luckily for Ukraine, for every Kalibr made, 10 are lost due to corruption lol.

And Ukraine claims to have shot (9) down apparently, which well naturally raises my eyebrows a bit...

https://twitter.com/Cyx_5/status/1569037493512839169?s=20&t=BJQMxPk3xq6mv0Ak...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[Storr]

"In Kherson, the RUS actually shortened the lines of defense so as to be within range of their own artillery from the eastern bank of the Dnieper. I am talking about a 5-10 km retreat towards Chersoń. These are the effects of the problem with the supply of artillery ammunition."

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1569039235159625736?s=20&t=K0PugVmP2UIBYL...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1569039982009917446?s=20&t=K0PugVmP2UIBYL...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What are the chances the Ukraine army repels the attacks?

If Russia fully commits, 0.1%. They can make it a costly victory tho, if their chain of command or supply lines don't get cut.

Didn't age well.

[Storr]

The usual Russian response to military failure, targeting civilian infrastructure:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1569025874690994176?s=20&t=MBmMs11W...

Blackouts have been reported in large parts of eastern Ukraine as electricity and water infrastructure has been attacked. As your post acknowledges, individual sets of missile attacks like this are the norm, but not at this scale (at least since the first phase).

My guess is that this is the missile tantrum I predicted (meant to console the ultranationalists like Girkin), but it might disrupt logistics enough in the short term to allow the collapsing front line to stabilise. Attacks on this kind of infrastructure are not inherently war crimes and can have military value - the US used them in Iraq to cause confusion, but it was able to follow this up with a coordinated air campaign which Russia doesn't seem to be capable of.

Let's hope the damage can be repaired in good order and that aid is stepped up (including humanitarian to help with this).

Zelensky's response:

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1569044030272454663?s=20&t=Nm0MV6Nu...

[jaichind]

It seems Russia's retaliation has all of unoccupied Ukraine without power