2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[politicallefty]

Now Republicans are bracing for DeSantis to keep his promise and haul them back into a special session, worrying that he might hit the campaign trail and use his popularity and the bully pulpit to bring election-year pressure on those who bucked him.

“DeSantis has carved out his own lane in the GOP: the Voldemort lane,” said Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber, a Democrat who clashed with DeSantis over Covid lockdowns and who was involved in Democrats’ redistricting efforts in 2010.

Lol we have the Harry Potter Democrats.

Republicans in the Legislature say they were taken aback by DeSantis’ power play, with one describing him as being hyperfocused on redistricting compared to other issues.

“In meetings, he would just demand: ‘Pass my maps! My maps! My maps!’ He’s just bizarrely obsessed with this. He won’t let it go. He won’t listen to reason,” said a Republican who didn’t want to criticize DeSantis publicly.

It’s jarring to hear the Voldemort analogy, given that’s who DeSantis’s predecessor was often compared to.

I never saw him in Harry Potter movies, but I do remember seeing him on the cover of the Weekly World News when I was younger.

[ꙮ]

I have no idea why the Republican legislature doesn't just pass it. If Hochul can get her gerrymander done and passed with no opposition then Republican's shouldn't disarm and allow Democrats to take more seats than they have to.
I literally can't understand the Florida legislature's thinking at all.

1. Legislators do have concerns in redistricting beyond just "More same party seats = good". There are members of the legislature that have problems with the geography of the map beyond just a partisan division perspective.

2. Legislators want to avoid a potential VRA lawsuit that would get the whole map potentially thrown out. A slightly less gerrymandered map that leaves black districts alone avoids that and is a safer bet for the party.

3. Despite being members of the same party and PoLaRiZaTioN being high right now, the FL legislature has no desire to be jerked around or dictated to by DeSantis. He stepped in near the end of this process with an ultimatum, threatening vetos, and making no concessions. I think part of the legislature's opposition is that they don't want DeSantis to think that he can walk all over them.

[lfromnj]

I have no idea why the Republican legislature doesn't just pass it. If Hochul can get her gerrymander done and passed with no opposition then Republican's shouldn't disarm and allow Democrats to take more seats than they have to.
I literally can't understand the Florida legislature's thinking at all.

1. Legislators do have concerns in redistricting beyond just "More same party seats = good". There are members of the legislature that have problems with the geography of the map beyond just a partisan division perspective.

2. Legislators want to avoid a potential VRA lawsuit that would get the whole map potentially thrown out. A slightly less gerrymandered map that leaves black districts alone avoids that and is a safer bet for the party.

3. Despite being members of the same party and PoLaRiZaTioN being high right now, the FL legislature has no desire to be jerked around or dictated to by DeSantis. He stepped in near the end of this process with an ultimatum, threatening vetos, and making no concessions. I think part of the legislature's opposition is that they don't want DeSantis to think that he can walk all over them.

A VRA lawsuit is not the risk. Its the fair districts amendment.  I think the most important thing is DeSantis's theory could really mess up the legislative maps as well.

[Torie]

Here is what I don't get. If no map is passed, the court draws a map. Why would DeSantis want that? As to the internecine Pub battle of the maps, they are not that much different, so why is DeSantis freaking out over not that much? I don't get that either. Does DeSantis have psychological problems? That is meant as a serious rather than tendentious question. The man genuinely puzzles me.

[Smash255]

Here is what I don't get. If no map is passed, the court draws a map. Why would DeSantis want that? As to the internecine Pub battle of the maps, they are not that much different, so why is DeSantis freaking out over not that much? I don't get that either. Does DeSantis have psychological problems? That is meant as a serious rather than tendentious question. The man genuinely puzzles me.

Well yes, but I would think the bigger issue here is he is an egomaniac. 

[GALeftist]

Here is what I don't get. If no map is passed, the court draws a map. Why would DeSantis want that? As to the internecine Pub battle of the maps, they are not that much different, so why is DeSantis freaking out over not that much? I don't get that either. Does DeSantis have psychological problems? That is meant as a serious rather than tendentious question. The man genuinely puzzles me.

I don't think DeSantis is actually that concerned with getting a maximal gerrymander. He'd probably prefer one, but it is tangential to his actual goal of continuing to get fawning coverage from the national right-wing media, which he hopes will be enough to offset his abject lack of charisma.

[Torie]

Here is what I don't get. If no map is passed, the court draws a map. Why would DeSantis want that? As to the internecine Pub battle of the maps, they are not that much different, so why is DeSantis freaking out over not that much? I don't get that either. Does DeSantis have psychological problems? That is meant as a serious rather than tendentious question. The man genuinely puzzles me.

I don't think DeSantis is actually that concerned with getting a maximal gerrymander. He'd probably prefer one, but it is tangential to his actual goal of continuing to get fawning coverage from the national right-wing media, which he hopes will be enough to offset his abject lack of charisma.

I don't see how pursuing something that makes his own party in Florida disdain him and is doomed to failure and will backfire would improve his appeal to anyone. Also the guy will have to compete with Trump for favor with the right wing media, and Trump hates him.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Lot of people seem to be avoiding the Occam's Razor explanation here, which is that DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible.

[GALeftist]

Lot of people seem to be avoiding the Occam's Razor explanation here, which is that DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible.

If DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible, I'll provide him with a foolproof plan, free of charge.

1. Make your intentions clear to the legislature months in advance.
2. Go public with your disagreements only as a last resort; avoid needless antagonization.
3. Focus on Tampa, Miami, and Orlando to the exclusion of North Florida, which is far more legally and parochially fraught and is a fraction as important as those metro areas.
4. Be willing to concede to lawmakers who want ideal seats as long as you're getting something in return.

I think he literally did the opposite of this at every step.

[GALeftist]

Here is what I don't get. If no map is passed, the court draws a map. Why would DeSantis want that? As to the internecine Pub battle of the maps, they are not that much different, so why is DeSantis freaking out over not that much? I don't get that either. Does DeSantis have psychological problems? That is meant as a serious rather than tendentious question. The man genuinely puzzles me.

I don't think DeSantis is actually that concerned with getting a maximal gerrymander. He'd probably prefer one, but it is tangential to his actual goal of continuing to get fawning coverage from the national right-wing media, which he hopes will be enough to offset his abject lack of charisma.

I don't see how pursuing something that makes his own party in Florida disdain him and is doomed to failure and will backfire would improve his appeal to anyone. Also the guy will have to compete with Trump for favor with the right wing media, and Trump hates him.

It fits pretty neatly into a brave outsider vs. swampy establishment narrative, whether or not he wins. I doubt he plans on sticking around in Tallahassee much longer so from his perspective who cares what his party thinks of him?

[Torie]

Here is what I don't get. If no map is passed, the court draws a map. Why would DeSantis want that? As to the internecine Pub battle of the maps, they are not that much different, so why is DeSantis freaking out over not that much? I don't get that either. Does DeSantis have psychological problems? That is meant as a serious rather than tendentious question. The man genuinely puzzles me.

I don't think DeSantis is actually that concerned with getting a maximal gerrymander. He'd probably prefer one, but it is tangential to his actual goal of continuing to get fawning coverage from the national right-wing media, which he hopes will be enough to offset his abject lack of charisma.

I don't see how pursuing something that makes his own party in Florida disdain him and is doomed to failure and will backfire would improve his appeal to anyone. Also the guy will have to compete with Trump for favor with the right wing media, and Trump hates him.

It fits pretty neatly into a brave outsider vs. swampy establishment narrative, whether or not he wins. I doubt he plans on sticking around in Tallahassee much longer so from his perspective who cares what his party thinks of him?

I guess it comes down to whether the Pub Party really is stuck on stupid. I guess that there is a case to be made that it mostly is, with those not stuck often retiring.

[UncleSam]

Lot of people seem to be avoiding the Occam's Razor explanation here, which is that DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible.

Lol this was obviously always the answer, just Dems can’t conceive of such a boring scenario as it allows no space for DeSantis to be a supervillain.

[Smash255]

Lot of people seem to be avoiding the Occam's Razor explanation here, which is that DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible.

Lol this was obviously always the answer, just Dems can’t conceive of such a boring scenario as it allows no space for DeSantis to be a supervillain.

I don't think anyone is denying that part.  It is, however quite unusual to see a Governor fight his own party to gerrymander even harder at the risk of getting neither gerrymander. 

[Torie]

Lot of people seem to be avoiding the Occam's Razor explanation here, which is that DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible.

Lol this was obviously always the answer, just Dems can’t conceive of such a boring scenario as it allows no space for DeSantis to be a supervillain.

Running the risk a court draws a map, and the Pubs lose more seats than the map the legislature passed. I don't think DeSantis is a supervillain (if it is not Putin or Trump or MTG or a few freaks like that I just don't go there), I just think he is being super stupid.

[Smash255]

Lot of people seem to be avoiding the Occam's Razor explanation here, which is that DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible.

Lol this was obviously always the answer, just Dems can’t conceive of such a boring scenario as it allows no space for DeSantis to be a supervillain.

I would agree probably stupid, but he could potentially be thinking it could be a win-win.  if he gets his map he gets more seats for the GOP in Florida.  If it gets thrown out by the courts, he can scream the always favorite Republican tagline 'activist liberal Judges' as a campaign issue for 2024 (regardless of if the judges were liberal or not or how badly his map was in violation of the law)

Running the risk a court draws a map, and the Pubs lose more seats than the map the legislature passed. I don't think DeSantis is a supervillain (if it is not Putin or Trump or MTG or a few freaks like that I just don't go there), I just think he is being super stupid.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Here is what I don't get. If no map is passed, the court draws a map. Why would DeSantis want that? As to the internecine Pub battle of the maps, they are not that much different, so why is DeSantis freaking out over not that much? I don't get that either. Does DeSantis have psychological problems? That is meant as a serious rather than tendentious question. The man genuinely puzzles me.

Well before the legislature passed a map and a "backup map". Couldn't DeSantis do the same? Have a backup in case the map he wants is thrown out?

[Torie]

Here is what I don't get. If no map is passed, the court draws a map. Why would DeSantis want that? As to the internecine Pub battle of the maps, they are not that much different, so why is DeSantis freaking out over not that much? I don't get that either. Does DeSantis have psychological problems? That is meant as a serious rather than tendentious question. The man genuinely puzzles me.

Well before the legislature passed a map and a "backup map". Couldn't DeSantis do the same? Have a backup in case the map he wants is thrown out?

That assumes that enacted into law is map 1, with map 2 a backup map. That requires the guv and legislature agree on something. If not enacted into law, hypothetical maps are irrelevant when it goes to court with no map having been enacted into law. It really is an embarrassing circus act for the Pubs, with the Pub id in charge, and the superego put in the closet.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Lot of people seem to be avoiding the Occam's Razor explanation here, which is that DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible.

If DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible, I'll provide him with a foolproof plan, free of charge.

1. Make your intentions clear to the legislature months in advance.
2. Go public with your disagreements only as a last resort; avoid needless antagonization.
3. Focus on Tampa, Miami, and Orlando to the exclusion of North Florida, which is far more legally and parochially fraught and is a fraction as important as those metro areas.
4. Be willing to concede to lawmakers who want ideal seats as long as you're getting something in return.

I think he literally did the opposite of this at every step.

1/2/4: People make mistakes

3. I disagree and there's a very clear case that FL-05 is not just legal to get rid of, but illegal.

[lfromnj]

Lot of people seem to be avoiding the Occam's Razor explanation here, which is that DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible.

If DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible, I'll provide him with a foolproof plan, free of charge.

1. Make your intentions clear to the legislature months in advance.
2. Go public with your disagreements only as a last resort; avoid needless antagonization.
3. Focus on Tampa, Miami, and Orlando to the exclusion of North Florida, which is far more legally and parochially fraught and is a fraction as important as those metro areas.
4. Be willing to concede to lawmakers who want ideal seats as long as you're getting something in return.

I think he literally did the opposite of this at every step.

1/2/4: People make mistakes

3. I disagree and there's a very clear case that FL-05 is not just legal to get rid of, but illegal.

I think most people here can agree that with the that the current FL-05 has a decent chance of being struck under the 14th. I struggle to see how a West Duval seat even if not required would be illegal.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Lot of people seem to be avoiding the Occam's Razor explanation here, which is that DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible.

If DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible, I'll provide him with a foolproof plan, free of charge.

1. Make your intentions clear to the legislature months in advance.
2. Go public with your disagreements only as a last resort; avoid needless antagonization.
3. Focus on Tampa, Miami, and Orlando to the exclusion of North Florida, which is far more legally and parochially fraught and is a fraction as important as those metro areas.
4. Be willing to concede to lawmakers who want ideal seats as long as you're getting something in return.

I think he literally did the opposite of this at every step.

1/2/4: People make mistakes

3. I disagree and there's a very clear case that FL-05 is not just legal to get rid of, but illegal.

I think most people here can agree that with the that the current FL-05 has a decent chance of being struck under the 14th. I struggle to see how a West Duval seat even if not required would be illegal.

I don't think it would be. But the OP said to "the exclusion of North Florida" and I'm answering as to why I believe some focus on North Florida can be understood, even if I concur that I'd probably draw a Jax area Dem seat if I was DeSantis.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lot of people seem to be avoiding the Occam's Razor explanation here, which is that DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible.

Which is the most obvious answer but doing what he claims he'll do is a gamble that could very well result in the opposite of that.

[lfromnj]

https://ourtallahassee.com/kristin-dozier-calls-for-resolution-defending-rep-al-lawson-leon-countys-seat-in-congress/

“Congressional districts should not be about any one person but must put the needs of the people first,” Lawson concluded. “No one is surprised that Ron DeSantis put politics ahead of the people.”

Sure Mr.Lawson DeSantis gerrymandered you guys but why do you have an issue with the house map? It can't be because of your personal needs right?

[lfromnj]

https://rumble.com/vy1iqt-desantis-to-call-for-special-session-for-redistricting-map-vote.html

Sabatini so huge grain of salt but he claims senate is just giving up but the house isn't. He also claims there will be a special session according to a non public DeSantis speech. This one seems true at least. Sabatini does claim the reason for the senate flip around is because of DeSantis endorsing his supporters for higher office.

https://www.wlrn.org/news/2022-03-21/disagreement-over-floridas-congressional-districts-could-force-legislature-to-reconvene?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1647860028

Senate Redistricting Committee Chairman Ray Rodrigues expressed optimism the two sides will eventually reach an agreement, but that would require lawmakers to reconvene in a special legislative session.

“We would need to come up with a map that the House and Senate could agree upon and that the governor would sign.”

Sounds like its going to special session unless if Democrats vote to override?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Democrats better vote to override I swear to god

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Democrats should say they will vote for the original senate map and in turn they will not sue