2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not sure what the plan with that 15th is. Not only is that basically guaranteed to not be R-held all decade it probably won't even be R-leaning at the end of the decade.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah it's really weird that DeSantis came in so late regarding redistricting when first drafts were out in November. Why didn't he get involved then ? It's probably not too late to get involved but it would have been easier to get involved earlier.

A few options

A: He's just fishing for lazer eye votes. I don't think even think the national GOP apparatus would want to cut FL05. And I am not sure what the purpose of the initial map was other than the FL05 chop.
B: He didn't really pay attention to redistricting until recently .
C: He thought any map would be fine earlier in the cycle but he now believes that he will need a solid delegation coming out of FL if he wants to be a president with a trifecta in 24.

Can we get a definition of lazer eye voters? That actually made me laugh 😂

I don't think there are many. They are vocal on Twitter, but these are insiders of insiders. However, I'm sure there are donors, both large and small, who would like to see something like this on the resume for national office.

Yeah, they're basically to redistricting and elections what anime avatars are to "social justice" activism.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lot of people seem to be avoiding the Occam's Razor explanation here, which is that DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible.

Which is the most obvious answer but doing what he claims he'll do is a gamble that could very well result in the opposite of that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah Democrats should just give up on a Florida 5th based in Leon. DOA at SCOTUS. I think the recent SCOTUS decision at WI could put some fear in GOP legislators if DeSantis threatens to go nuclear(sue over legislative districts as well)

How about no

The only way to get a Leon County Democratic seat is to either connect it with parts of Jacksonville (not likely now that it's possible to draw a strong D seat entirely within Duval County) or connect it to Gainesville which would be nice but isn't happening except under a hypothetical D trifecta. What do you propose the Democrats do here?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So why didn't the Democrats vote to override? Protecting Al Lawson clearly wasn't a reason.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So why didn't the Democrats vote to override? Protecting Al Lawson clearly wasn't a reason.

FL house dems were really dumb and opposed the less aggressive maps but the reality is this was all political theater. They always wanted a more aggressive map

Why would Florida House Democrats prefer that map?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What the heck is the purpose of that eastern shore tail?

$10 says DeSantis got lazy/tired of dealing with Tampa precincts.

If you ignore the water, it makes the seat look pretty compact.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristinaPushaw/status/1633084974495592450

Does confirm the primary threats behind the scenes.

Why do people actually link to tweets instead of just embedding them now?

https://www.twitter.com/ChristinaPushaw/status/1633084974495592450

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good article:

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1698350009756811384

Reading the thread it appears that the FL secretary of state has really screwed up the republicans with his garbage far right arguments that even a rick scott appointee refused to take into consideration.

It's not so much even that his arguments are far-right as that they're nonsensical and incoherent.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do the Republicans have any type of rebuttal to the point that a D-leaning seat fully in Duval County can be easily drawn? Because that's not only obviously true it completely invalidates any "compactness" claims they're making.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do the Republicans have any type of rebuttal to the point that a D-leaning seat fully in Duval County can be easily drawn? Because that's not only obviously true it completely invalidates any "compactness" claims they're making.

Ig that even though a Duval based seat itself is compact, it forces another district to be uncompact? You either need a wrap-around suburban Jacksonville seat or a rural district that grabs Nassau County. Still a pretty weak argument though.

The state senate did propose a Duval only district in 2021, so obviously they thought it would work at some point.  I *think* the only real argument against it would be that african americans wouldn't have sufficient numbers to reliably control the Dem primary...?

But the current split into Safe R seats makes that moot anyway. Are they actually arguing that it's more compliant with the VRA or whatever to have two seats with black-dominated D primaries where the Democrat can't win than a D-leaning seat that's not as black-dominated?