2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[lfromnj]

So if this map ends up in court is it pretty much guaranteed the court chooses the legislative map?

Maybe they'll pick it anyways but who knows. Doesn't seem like a guarantee considering how courts have acted in most states.

Ironically, Maureen O'Connor seems to be pushing for a light Dem gerry of Ohio's maps without realizing it.

How? I don't really like the notion that maximizing partisan fairness somehow counts as a "Dem gerrymander." The state constitution literally mandates it.

Because she’s using direct proportionality as the main standard while Ohio is a moderately lopsided state. Get much more partisanly extreme; a proportionality argument wouldn’t fly in Illinois for instance

The Ohio Constitution mandates direct proportionality.

The statewide proportion of districts whose voters, based on statewide state and federal partisan general election results during the last ten years, favor each political party shall correspond closely to the statewide preferences of the voters of Ohio.

The reason the Republican's geography excuse hasn't held up is that the plaintiffs demonstrated you can draw maps better on both standards.

That's specifically referring to the legislative districts. And the plaintiff map split Cleveland 4 ways along with splitting the core of Columbus into 4 while also splitting Cincinatti into 3.

[Ritz]

So if this map ends up in court is it pretty much guaranteed the court chooses the legislative map?

Maybe they'll pick it anyways but who knows. Doesn't seem like a guarantee considering how courts have acted in most states.

Ironically, Maureen O'Connor seems to be pushing for a light Dem gerry of Ohio's maps without realizing it.

How? I don't really like the notion that maximizing partisan fairness somehow counts as a "Dem gerrymander." The state constitution literally mandates it.

Because she’s using direct proportionality as the main standard while Ohio is a moderately lopsided state. Get much more partisanly extreme; a proportionality argument wouldn’t fly in Illinois for instance

The Ohio Constitution mandates direct proportionality.

The statewide proportion of districts whose voters, based on statewide state and federal partisan general election results during the last ten years, favor each political party shall correspond closely to the statewide preferences of the voters of Ohio.

The reason the Republican's geography excuse hasn't held up is that the plaintiffs demonstrated you can draw maps better on both standards.

That's specifically referring to the legislative districts. And the plaintiff map split Cleveland 4 ways along with splitting the core of Columbus into 4 while also splitting Cincinatti into 3.

The difference in municipal splits between the Rodden:

and ORC map:


is really marginal. Nor does it really matter as the constitutional standards for a map are that they "shall be compact" and "shall correspond closely to the statewide preferences of the voters." Not "shall minimize splits."

As for the congressional maps, they haven't assigned direct proportionality to them. They've pointed to specific districts that pack and crack Dem voters, but they haven't demanded a certain number of seats.

[David Hume]

It's interesting that FL state Legs have yet to send the maps to DeSantis. Maybe they are just waiting the court to take over?

[lfromnj]

It's interesting that FL state Legs have yet to send the maps to DeSantis. Maybe they are just waiting the court to take over?

Could be discussions or bribery for other DeSantis priorities or vice versa. There's some Everglades deregulation bjll Simpson supports but DeSantis opposes.

[David Hume]

It's interesting that FL state Legs have yet to send the maps to DeSantis. Maybe they are just waiting the court to take over?

Could be discussions or bribery for other DeSantis priorities or vice versa. There's some Everglades deregulation bjll Simpson supports but DeSantis opposes.

I always find it hard to understand why people like Simpson want to fight with DeSantis about redistricting. What can they gain? They can simply pass the DeSantismander. How many voters will vote against him because of this? Passing a Dem-friendly map and pissing off R base, or passing DeSantismander and pissing off D base, I would rather avoid being called a RINO. Even if he is afraid of litigations, they are not directed against him personally, and he does not need to pay the legal fee from his own pocket. But fighting with DeSantis can harm his political career deeply.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's interesting that FL state Legs have yet to send the maps to DeSantis. Maybe they are just waiting the court to take over?

Could be discussions or bribery for other DeSantis priorities or vice versa. There's some Everglades deregulation bjll Simpson supports but DeSantis opposes.

I always find it hard to understand why people like Simpson want to fight with DeSantis about redistricting. What can they gain? They can simply pass the DeSantismander. How many voters will vote against him because of this? Passing a Dem-friendly map and pissing off R base, or passing DeSantismander and pissing off D base, I would rather avoid being called a RINO. Even if he is afraid of litigations, they are not directed against him personally, and he does not need to pay the legal fee from his own pocket. But fighting with DeSantis can harm his political career deeply.

My guess is he worries a legal challenge would upset a lot of R incumbents in the US House in Florida, and the House is the maximum level of aggression they can safely get away with. Notice how the House map doesn't screw over nor double bunk a single R incumbent whereas DeSantis's map would make severl incumbent Rs very unhappy (though i don't think it double bunks anyone).

Also from a legal standpoint, the DeSantis's map risks far more by significantly diluting or outright eliminating 3 of the 4 black seats in the state. If the Court were to overturn a map and use a special master, there are several R incumbents who would likely get non-desirable seats either just from potential double-bunking or because their seat could become a Biden leaning one.

The furthest I could see the House going is the current map they passed plus making Tampa more favorable since there's less VRA risk there and there aren't really any R incumbents to worry about plus that's where the additional open seat should be added.

[lfromnj]

It's interesting that FL state Legs have yet to send the maps to DeSantis. Maybe they are just waiting the court to take over?

Could be discussions or bribery for other DeSantis priorities or vice versa. There's some Everglades deregulation bjll Simpson supports but DeSantis opposes.

I always find it hard to understand why people like Simpson want to fight with DeSantis about redistricting. What can they gain? They can simply pass the DeSantismander. How many voters will vote against him because of this? Passing a Dem-friendly map and pissing off R base, or passing DeSantismander and pissing off D base, I would rather avoid being called a RINO. Even if he is afraid of litigations, they are not directed against him personally, and he does not need to pay the legal fee from his own pocket. But fighting with DeSantis can harm his political career deeply.

My guess is he worries a legal challenge would upset a lot of R incumbents in the US House in Florida, and the House is the maximum level of aggression they can safely get away with. Notice how the House map doesn't screw over nor double bunk a single R incumbent whereas DeSantis's map would make severl incumbent Rs very unhappy (though i don't think it double bunks anyone).

Also from a legal standpoint, the DeSantis's map risks far more by significantly diluting or outright eliminating 3 of the 4 black seats in the state. If the Court were to overturn a map and use a special master, there are several R incumbents who would likely get non-desirable seats either just from potential double-bunking or because their seat could become a Biden leaning one.

The furthest I could see the House going is the current map they passed plus making Tampa more favorable since there's less VRA risk there and there aren't really any R incumbents to worry about plus that's where the additional open seat should be added.

Fl 10th is really a stretch to call a black seat. its 30% on the senate map vs 28.5% on DeSantis's map.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's interesting that FL state Legs have yet to send the maps to DeSantis. Maybe they are just waiting the court to take over?

Could be discussions or bribery for other DeSantis priorities or vice versa. There's some Everglades deregulation bjll Simpson supports but DeSantis opposes.

I always find it hard to understand why people like Simpson want to fight with DeSantis about redistricting. What can they gain? They can simply pass the DeSantismander. How many voters will vote against him because of this? Passing a Dem-friendly map and pissing off R base, or passing DeSantismander and pissing off D base, I would rather avoid being called a RINO. Even if he is afraid of litigations, they are not directed against him personally, and he does not need to pay the legal fee from his own pocket. But fighting with DeSantis can harm his political career deeply.

My guess is he worries a legal challenge would upset a lot of R incumbents in the US House in Florida, and the House is the maximum level of aggression they can safely get away with. Notice how the House map doesn't screw over nor double bunk a single R incumbent whereas DeSantis's map would make severl incumbent Rs very unhappy (though i don't think it double bunks anyone).

Also from a legal standpoint, the DeSantis's map risks far more by significantly diluting or outright eliminating 3 of the 4 black seats in the state. If the Court were to overturn a map and use a special master, there are several R incumbents who would likely get non-desirable seats either just from potential double-bunking or because their seat could become a Biden leaning one.

The furthest I could see the House going is the current map they passed plus making Tampa more favorable since there's less VRA risk there and there aren't really any R incumbents to worry about plus that's where the additional open seat should be added.

Fl 10th is really a stretch to call a black seat. its 30% on the senate map vs 28.5% on DeSantis's map.

Not protected but still functional, especially since the black population in Orlando is increasing pretty fast. It's just bad optics to crack the dilute Orlando's black community when they can clearly be kept together in one seat.

Even though DeSantis's topline % isn't that much less, the black share in the Dem primary goes way down, significantly impairing it's functionality.

Again, it isn't officially protected, but eliminating FL-05, making FL-10 less functional, and reducing the black % in FL-20 just looks really bad.

[lfromnj]

It's interesting that FL state Legs have yet to send the maps to DeSantis. Maybe they are just waiting the court to take over?

Could be discussions or bribery for other DeSantis priorities or vice versa. There's some Everglades deregulation bjll Simpson supports but DeSantis opposes.

I always find it hard to understand why people like Simpson want to fight with DeSantis about redistricting. What can they gain? They can simply pass the DeSantismander. How many voters will vote against him because of this? Passing a Dem-friendly map and pissing off R base, or passing DeSantismander and pissing off D base, I would rather avoid being called a RINO. Even if he is afraid of litigations, they are not directed against him personally, and he does not need to pay the legal fee from his own pocket. But fighting with DeSantis can harm his political career deeply.

My guess is he worries a legal challenge would upset a lot of R incumbents in the US House in Florida, and the House is the maximum level of aggression they can safely get away with. Notice how the House map doesn't screw over nor double bunk a single R incumbent whereas DeSantis's map would make severl incumbent Rs very unhappy (though i don't think it double bunks anyone).

Also from a legal standpoint, the DeSantis's map risks far more by significantly diluting or outright eliminating 3 of the 4 black seats in the state. If the Court were to overturn a map and use a special master, there are several R incumbents who would likely get non-desirable seats either just from potential double-bunking or because their seat could become a Biden leaning one.

The furthest I could see the House going is the current map they passed plus making Tampa more favorable since there's less VRA risk there and there aren't really any R incumbents to worry about plus that's where the additional open seat should be added.

Fl 10th is really a stretch to call a black seat. its 30% on the senate map vs 28.5% on DeSantis's map.

Not protected but still functional, especially since the black population in Orlando is increasing pretty fast. It's just bad optics to crack the dilute Orlando's black community when they can clearly be kept together in one seat.

Even though DeSantis's topline % isn't that much less, the black share in the Dem primary goes way down, significantly impairing it's functionality.

Again, it isn't officially protected, but eliminating FL-05, making FL-10 less functional, and reducing the black % in FL-20 just looks really bad.

Its not cracking the community. Its just adding white liberals.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's interesting that FL state Legs have yet to send the maps to DeSantis. Maybe they are just waiting the court to take over?

Could be discussions or bribery for other DeSantis priorities or vice versa. There's some Everglades deregulation bjll Simpson supports but DeSantis opposes.

I always find it hard to understand why people like Simpson want to fight with DeSantis about redistricting. What can they gain? They can simply pass the DeSantismander. How many voters will vote against him because of this? Passing a Dem-friendly map and pissing off R base, or passing DeSantismander and pissing off D base, I would rather avoid being called a RINO. Even if he is afraid of litigations, they are not directed against him personally, and he does not need to pay the legal fee from his own pocket. But fighting with DeSantis can harm his political career deeply.

My guess is he worries a legal challenge would upset a lot of R incumbents in the US House in Florida, and the House is the maximum level of aggression they can safely get away with. Notice how the House map doesn't screw over nor double bunk a single R incumbent whereas DeSantis's map would make severl incumbent Rs very unhappy (though i don't think it double bunks anyone).

Also from a legal standpoint, the DeSantis's map risks far more by significantly diluting or outright eliminating 3 of the 4 black seats in the state. If the Court were to overturn a map and use a special master, there are several R incumbents who would likely get non-desirable seats either just from potential double-bunking or because their seat could become a Biden leaning one.

The furthest I could see the House going is the current map they passed plus making Tampa more favorable since there's less VRA risk there and there aren't really any R incumbents to worry about plus that's where the additional open seat should be added.

Fl 10th is really a stretch to call a black seat. its 30% on the senate map vs 28.5% on DeSantis's map.

Not protected but still functional, especially since the black population in Orlando is increasing pretty fast. It's just bad optics to crack the dilute Orlando's black community when they can clearly be kept together in one seat.

Even though DeSantis's topline % isn't that much less, the black share in the Dem primary goes way down, significantly impairing it's functionality.

Again, it isn't officially protected, but eliminating FL-05, making FL-10 less functional, and reducing the black % in FL-20 just looks really bad.

Its not cracking the community. Its just adding white liberals.

DeSantis's map leaves out a few heavily black precincts to the West, though yes, it isn't a crack down the middle. The white/Hispanic liberals it add would be much better suited for a Seminole based seat like the current FL-07. This isn't a case where this is the most logical COI, especially since you're going to the whole other side of the city. Orlando is best suited with 3 seats, and putting black voters with white liberals is not justified IMO.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1502680253273198592

Would the judge have to recuse ? Hagedorn didn't recuse in WI in a similar position.

[lfromnj]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/ron-desantis-targets-black-held-congressional-seats-party-rcna19771

Dear lord he's not appealing to the laser eyes. He is a laser eye. He effectively wants to eliminate the entire VRA.
 

[lfromnj]

Now Republicans are bracing for DeSantis to keep his promise and haul them back into a special session, worrying that he might hit the campaign trail and use his popularity and the bully pulpit to bring election-year pressure on those who bucked him.

“DeSantis has carved out his own lane in the GOP: the Voldemort lane,” said Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber, a Democrat who clashed with DeSantis over Covid lockdowns and who was involved in Democrats’ redistricting efforts in 2010.

Lol we have the Harry Potter Democrats.

Republicans in the Legislature say they were taken aback by DeSantis’ power play, with one describing him as being hyperfocused on redistricting compared to other issues.

“In meetings, he would just demand: ‘Pass my maps! My maps! My maps!’ He’s just bizarrely obsessed with this. He won’t let it go. He won’t listen to reason,” said a Republican who didn’t want to criticize DeSantis publicly.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/ron-desantis-targets-black-held-congressional-seats-party-rcna19771

Dear lord he's not appealing to the laser eyes. He is a laser eye.

So based

[It’s so Joever]

Now Republicans are bracing for DeSantis to keep his promise and haul them back into a special session, worrying that he might hit the campaign trail and use his popularity and the bully pulpit to bring election-year pressure on those who bucked him.

“DeSantis has carved out his own lane in the GOP: the Voldemort lane,” said Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber, a Democrat who clashed with DeSantis over Covid lockdowns and who was involved in Democrats’ redistricting efforts in 2010.

Lol we have the Harry Potter Democrats.

Republicans in the Legislature say they were taken aback by DeSantis’ power play, with one describing him as being hyperfocused on redistricting compared to other issues.

“In meetings, he would just demand: ‘Pass my maps! My maps! My maps!’ He’s just bizarrely obsessed with this. He won’t let it go. He won’t listen to reason,” said a Republican who didn’t want to criticize DeSantis publicly.

DeSantis MUST be an Atlasian. You can’t convince me otherwise!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Now Republicans are bracing for DeSantis to keep his promise and haul them back into a special session, worrying that he might hit the campaign trail and use his popularity and the bully pulpit to bring election-year pressure on those who bucked him.

“DeSantis has carved out his own lane in the GOP: the Voldemort lane,” said Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber, a Democrat who clashed with DeSantis over Covid lockdowns and who was involved in Democrats’ redistricting efforts in 2010.

Lol we have the Harry Potter Democrats.

Republicans in the Legislature say they were taken aback by DeSantis’ power play, with one describing him as being hyperfocused on redistricting compared to other issues.

“In meetings, he would just demand: ‘Pass my maps! My maps! My maps!’ He’s just bizarrely obsessed with this. He won’t let it go. He won’t listen to reason,” said a Republican who didn’t want to criticize DeSantis publicly.

DeSantis MUST be an Atlasian. You can’t convince me otherwise!

This!

[Unelectable Bystander]

This thread is becoming a pure meme and I love it

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This thread is becoming a pure meme and I love it

We can't help ourselves, we're members of the Atlas mapping community. When we see a meme, we see it for what it is.

We're a group of people who will sit for hours, days, even weeks on end performing some of the hardest, most mentally demanding tasks. Over, and over, and over all for nothing more than a little DRA link saying we did.

We'll punish our selfs doing things others would consider torture, because we think it's fun.

We'll spend most if not all of our free time min maxing the stats of a ridiculous gerrymander all to draw out a single extra point of additional efficiency gap or an additional Trump or Biden district.

Many of us have made careers out of doing just these things: slogging through the grind, all day, the same states over and over, hundreds of times to the point where we know evety little detail such that some have attained such gerrymanderer nirvana that they can literally draw these maps blindfolded.

[lfromnj]

Overall yeah I think its likely clear he isn't just doing this to appeal to the base(well because the base for redistricting is extremely tiny)

[Tekken_Guy]

Now Republicans are bracing for DeSantis to keep his promise and haul them back into a special session, worrying that he might hit the campaign trail and use his popularity and the bully pulpit to bring election-year pressure on those who bucked him.

“DeSantis has carved out his own lane in the GOP: the Voldemort lane,” said Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber, a Democrat who clashed with DeSantis over Covid lockdowns and who was involved in Democrats’ redistricting efforts in 2010.

Lol we have the Harry Potter Democrats.

Republicans in the Legislature say they were taken aback by DeSantis’ power play, with one describing him as being hyperfocused on redistricting compared to other issues.

“In meetings, he would just demand: ‘Pass my maps! My maps! My maps!’ He’s just bizarrely obsessed with this. He won’t let it go. He won’t listen to reason,” said a Republican who didn’t want to criticize DeSantis publicly.

It’s jarring to hear the Voldemort analogy, given that’s who DeSantis’s predecessor was often compared to.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1503545692354224133

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I have no idea why the Republican legislature doesn't just pass it. If Hochul can get her gerrymander done and passed with no opposition then Republican's shouldn't disarm and allow Democrats to take more seats than they have to.
I literally can't understand the Florida legislature's thinking at all.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If DeSantis will just veto any non-gerrymander map (looking likely at this point), why wouldn't the legislature just pass his map?
If they don't pass his map it'll just end up in the courts anyway because they'll have no map at all, so if they're afraid of the map ending up in court why don't they just pass DeSantis' map if it'll end up in court either way?

And if they really wanted to they could pass both DeSantis' map and their usual map as a backup in the case that DeSantis' map gets overturned by the courts.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If DeSantis will just veto any non-gerrymander map (looking likely at this point), why wouldn't the legislature just pass his map?
If they don't pass his map it'll just end up in the courts anyway because they'll have no map at all, so if they're afraid of the map ending up in court why don't they just pass DeSantis' map if it'll end up in court either way?

And if they really wanted to they could pass both DeSantis' map and their usual map as a backup in the case that DeSantis' map gets overturned by the courts.

The calculations for Democrats is different then republicans. The VRA works simultaneously for and against democrats depending on the state, but usually the most egregious gerrymanders done by democrats is in majority white areas (like Upstate New York or Down state Illinois) where there is little to no precedent prohibiting such, so there is little risk of a court challenge.

For Republicans trying to minimize democratic seats (especially in the south) means getting rid of minority seats, and if they over stretch they run the risk of having their whole map thrown out in a court challenge as what happened to North Carolina.

DeSantis is spending much of his energy on trying to nuke Lawson’s black plurality seat, something that most in the legislature seem to have no appetite for as they know it likely will be a lot of work and attention for no gain. The whole debacle really makes DeSantis look a lot less savvy

[GALeftist]

If DeSantis will just veto any non-gerrymander map (looking likely at this point), why wouldn't the legislature just pass his map?
If they don't pass his map it'll just end up in the courts anyway because they'll have no map at all, so if they're afraid of the map ending up in court why don't they just pass DeSantis' map if it'll end up in court either way?

And if they really wanted to they could pass both DeSantis' map and their usual map as a backup in the case that DeSantis' map gets overturned by the courts.

They probably just straight up don't want his configuration.