OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[BuckeyeNut]

Dolan's chances might be destroyed now. He probably needed Democrats who were going to vote for DeWine to push him over the edge on top of the gains he's made with actual Republicans. Presumably, far fewer liberals will be pulling a Republican primary ballot tomorrow.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Dolan's chances might be destroyed now. He probably needed Democrats who were going to vote for DeWine to push him over the edge on top of the gains he's made with actual Republicans. Presumably, far fewer liberals will be pulling a Republican primary ballot tomorrow.

I don't know. The news might be too recent for it to affect Democrats' decisions. And Dolan is pro-choice so they still might cross over for him.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Dolan winning after everyone spent their time hyping Mandel,Vance and Timken would honestly be amazing and very memey.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Dolan's chances might be destroyed now. He probably needed Democrats who were going to vote for DeWine to push him over the edge on top of the gains he's made with actual Republicans. Presumably, far fewer liberals will be pulling a Republican primary ballot tomorrow.

I don't know. The news might be too recent for it to affect Democrats' decisions. And Dolan is pro-choice so they still might cross over for him.

He’s running as a pro-lifer IIRC

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

MY FINAL PREDICTION:
J. D. Vance: 27.2%
Matt Dolan: 26.5%
Mandel: 24.3%
Gibbons: 11.4%
Timken: 8.2%
Mark Pukita: 1.9%
Neil Patel: 0.5%

I'm factoring in about 6% of the electorate being Democrats.

Dolan will clean up most of Columbus, Cincinnati and suburban Cleveland. Mandel will do well with rurals in the typically Republican west and inland north-east Ohio around Akron (where he did well in his last primary). Vance does well with Appalachia and far-east Ohio around Youngstown and along the PA border, as well as working class areas of Cleveland/other cities.

Timken slightly overperforms polls due to a good ground game, while Gibbons underperforms because his base is flimsy due to mostly being from ads. Mandel does around where polls predict (polls underpredict rurals but he is on a downward trend), Dolan continues his momentum up to 26% (polls overpredict his vote share among Republicans due to suburbanites answering polls more, but Democrats crossvoting makes up for this) while Vance does about where his polls are with a little bit more due to getting some undecideds. Undecideds break about even between Dolan, Mandel and Vance.

Dolan takes the lead with early reporting due to cities reporting first, then Mandel looks like he may win due to VBM coming in, and finally election-day ballots from rural areas which report last propel Vance into victory after predictit goes insane for hours.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Dolan's chances might be destroyed now. He probably needed Democrats who were going to vote for DeWine to push him over the edge on top of the gains he's made with actual Republicans. Presumably, far fewer liberals will be pulling a Republican primary ballot tomorrow.

I don't know. The news might be too recent for it to affect Democrats' decisions. And Dolan is pro-choice so they still might cross over for him.

He’s running as a pro-lifer IIRC

Yes, but he's been defined by his opponents as a pro-choicer (it's the main attack against him iirc) and he voted as a pro-choicer until the moment he decided to run for Senate.

[BuckeyeNut]

Dolan's chances might be destroyed now. He probably needed Democrats who were going to vote for DeWine to push him over the edge on top of the gains he's made with actual Republicans. Presumably, far fewer liberals will be pulling a Republican primary ballot tomorrow.

I don't know. The news might be too recent for it to affect Democrats' decisions. And Dolan is pro-choice so they still might cross over for him.

Pro-choice relative to other Republicans, but still not in the sense many Democrats would appreciate. But the bigger issue is that one of the Democratic candidates for Governor is anti-choice.

[mtvoter]

👀
https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1521236861615808512

Mate,
I wouldn't be surprised if Dolan pulls off an Upset given how Vance & Mandel were going at each other down the homestretch. Both are downright disgusting.

Dolan would put this Race out of reach for Ryan in the GE I think.

The race would be out of reach no matter who the R candidate is. And I actually think Dolan would perform worse than Vance because he would struggle to turnout the base, especially with DeWine being the other major statewide candidate.

I wouldn't worry about the Base. They will come out no matter what given that Democrats and particular President Biden are so toxic this year. And Ryan voted 98 % of the Time with Pelosi these last two years.

I am going to make a BOLD PREDICTION that Demings in FL, Beasley in NC will perform better than Ryan in their States in November.

Dolan is basically a moderate democrat on social issues.

Yeah. I'd say the closest Senator Dolan would be to if elected is Shelley Moore Capito, funnily enough another socially liberal Republican in a hardcore conservative state.

Capito isn’t socially liberal lol

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm struggling to decide whether I want more dem crossover votes (so Turner has a better shot at winning) or less dem crossover votes (so Vance has a better shot at winning). I wish moderates didn't vote.

[ElectionsGuy]

Dolan's chances might be destroyed now. He probably needed Democrats who were going to vote for DeWine to push him over the edge on top of the gains he's made with actual Republicans. Presumably, far fewer liberals will be pulling a Republican primary ballot tomorrow.

This is truly the pinnacle of a Talk Elections take.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Polls are now officially open to voting. This absolute sh*tshow will finally be over.

[BuckeyeNut]

Dolan's chances might be destroyed now. He probably needed Democrats who were going to vote for DeWine to push him over the edge on top of the gains he's made with actual Republicans. Presumably, far fewer liberals will be pulling a Republican primary ballot tomorrow.

This is truly the pinnacle of a Talk Elections take.

Given conservative posters' opinions expressed on Dolan in this thread, I don't see why it is hard to imagine Dolan would need interference from liberals strategically voting in the GOP primary to clear 25%, which he will almost certainly need to do to win. Democrats strategically vote in Republican primaries somewhat frequently in Ohio since we have semi-open primary elections.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Not sure if it means much, but Vance is dominating Google searches in Ohio during the last couple hours.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%201-d&geo=US-OH&q=%2Fg%2F11c6v_wj1r,%2Fm%2F043rh3n,gibbons

[Unelectable Bystander]

Not sure if it means much, but Vance is dominating Google searches in Ohio during the last couple hours.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%201-d&geo=US-OH&q=%2Fg%2F11c6v_wj1r,%2Fm%2F043rh3n,gibbons

It’s all these crossover voters looking for his stance on Roe. They’ll come out in droves to vote for #moderateMatt. In fact there won’t even be a D primary because every single person will be crossing over

[ElectionsGuy]

Dolan's chances might be destroyed now. He probably needed Democrats who were going to vote for DeWine to push him over the edge on top of the gains he's made with actual Republicans. Presumably, far fewer liberals will be pulling a Republican primary ballot tomorrow.

This is truly the pinnacle of a Talk Elections take.

Given conservative posters' opinions expressed on Dolan in this thread, I don't see why it is hard to imagine Dolan would need interference from liberals strategically voting in the GOP primary to clear 25%, which he will almost certainly need to do to win. Democrats strategically vote in Republican primaries somewhat frequently in Ohio since we have semi-open primary elections.

The idea that "Dolan's chances might be destroyed now" because of late-night breaking news about a potential supreme court decision is definitely something only an online politically obsessed person would say. What is the Dem planning on voting for Dolan going to do now? Vote in the Dem Primary because abortion is now important? He's the most pro-choice of the R's. None of this makes sense or is reflective of how any large constituency thinks. And odds are most people aren't even aware of this news yet (even if they will be at some point).

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm scrolling through Twitter and I'm weirdly seeing Ohioan Trump fans talk about how they are scared Vance will be Romney 2.0 so they're voting Dolan for an America First Senator LOL
Maybe the other candidates didn't attack Dolan enough for being a never-Trumper.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Stormy day across Ohio, turnout might be slightly down. Good for Vance and Dolan who have the most enthusiastic voter base according to FOX crosstabs. Bad for Mandel/Gibbons.

[BuckeyeNut]

Dolan's chances might be destroyed now. He probably needed Democrats who were going to vote for DeWine to push him over the edge on top of the gains he's made with actual Republicans. Presumably, far fewer liberals will be pulling a Republican primary ballot tomorrow.

This is truly the pinnacle of a Talk Elections take.

Given conservative posters' opinions expressed on Dolan in this thread, I don't see why it is hard to imagine Dolan would need interference from liberals strategically voting in the GOP primary to clear 25%, which he will almost certainly need to do to win. Democrats strategically vote in Republican primaries somewhat frequently in Ohio since we have semi-open primary elections.

The idea that "Dolan's chances might be destroyed now" because of late-night breaking news about a potential supreme court decision is definitely something only an online politically obsessed person would say. What is the Dem planning on voting for Dolan going to do now? Vote in the Dem Primary because abortion is now important? He's the most pro-choice of the R's. None of this makes sense or is reflective of how any large constituency thinks. And odds are most people aren't even aware of this news yet (even if they will be at some point).

Yes? Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents who "strategically" vote in the Republican primary are well-informed voters, albeit misguided ones. Supporting DeWine in the Gubernatorial primary provides the thrust for crossing over this cycle. Voting in the Senate primary election to stop Mandel or Vance or whatever is secondary.

You don't have to be terminally online to learn that a draft decision of the United States Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade leaked last night. Plus, it's become increasingly apparent DeWine isn't actually in much danger of losing with Renacci and Blystone splitting the opposition pretty evenly.

I may be overthinking it. But you're not on the ground here, and you're underthinking it. (Emphasis also belongs on my initial use of the word "might.")

[Pollster]

Dolan overtakes Vance by a single point in the final day of the rolling tracker, though the 3-day average still gives Vance a slight lead.

[Senator Incitatus]

Wonder if the runner-up in this race is simply going to take on (and probably beat) Brown in 2024.

[Matty]

Dolan overtakes Vance by a single point in the final day of the rolling tracker, though the 3-day average still gives Vance a slight lead.

what tracker

[Pollster]

Dolan overtakes Vance by a single point in the final day of the rolling tracker, though the 3-day average still gives Vance a slight lead.

what tracker

A pollster friend of mine is currently running a rolling tracker (basically means a daily poll of ~200 respondents per day, with the most recent 3 days making up the traditional "full sample" done by pollsters to catch in-the-moment movement in fluid races) of the GOP primary for one of the main Democratic super PAC's and says that Vance and Mandel have plateaued at roughly 20-25% of the vote each, Dolan is increasing by about 1% per day, Gibbons crashing, Timken plateauing at about 10%, and undecided understandably dropping steadily as well. Appears that most undecided are opting for Dolan, though he claims "reason to believe" they will more likely break for Vance. Says the trajectory, if it holds, points to a Vance win with Dolan narrowly topping Mandel for second.

[wbrocks67]

Dolan overtakes Vance by a single point in the final day of the rolling tracker, though the 3-day average still gives Vance a slight lead.

Do you guys happen to be tracking the PA race in the same way?

[Pollster]

Dolan overtakes Vance by a single point in the final day of the rolling tracker, though the 3-day average still gives Vance a slight lead.

Do you guys happen to be tracking the PA race in the same way?

I'm sure somebody is, but I don't know them/they haven't told me if they are.

[BuckeyeNut]

Wonder if the runner-up in this race is simply going to take on (and probably beat) Brown in 2024.

Right now, I'd bet on Secretary of State Frank LaRose as the front runner in the Republican primary for 2024. If Vance is runner-up, his political capital will dry up fast but might not be gone. If it's Mandel in second place, he's in a much worse position than Vance. Should Dolan be the runner-up, he won't benefit from a highly fractured Republican primary unless Brown retires. If that happens, maybe. But Dolan might also go for David Joyce's seat should it open in 2024.