🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1443086669742317571

https://twitter.com/c_vogt/status/1443093148532715524?s=21

[Middle-aged Europe]

Brace yourselves, we have memes incoming.


https://twitter.com/sasa_s/status/1443105338736136201?s=21

[Yeahsayyeah]

ACAB & The Traffic Light Swamples

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/robbee82/status/1443093241092521985?s=21


(What "TKKG" is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TKKG)

[EastAnglianLefty]

I don't normally bother with this one, but there was more going on than normal, so here it is.

The failure of Linke to top the list in any constituency or the CDU to do so anywhere in the east are both very noticeable.

[Middle-aged Europe]

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

https://twitter.com/amsterdamalie/status/1443094573597831171

[Middle-aged Europe]

On Friday, there will be a second rounds of talks between Greens and FDP.

FDP is then planning to talk with the CDU on Saturday, and with the SPD on Sunday.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Annalena Baerbock has just said that the Greens are planning to talk with the SPD on Sunday, but unlike the FDP they haven't scheduled a meeting with the CDU yet. But it is probably gonna happen sometime next week.

[CumbrianLefty]

Annalena Baerbock has just said that the Greens are planning to talk with the SPD on Sunday, but unlike the FDP they haven't scheduled a meeting with the CDU yet. But it is probably gonna happen sometime next week.

Yes, but that they seem keener to talk to the SPD is surely telling.

[Astatine]

Die Linke's decline can be illustrated well when taking a look at how they performed among workers: In 2009, with the record result of 11.9 %, they did disproportionally well among this group, while now their vote share among workers is in line with the federal election result:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It's a bit OT, but it isn't a coincidence that Lindner looks a bit like Kubicki in that picture.
That's because Kubicki used to look like Lindner when was his age.

[Cassius]

Die Linke's decline can be illustrated well when taking a look at how they performed among workers: In 2009, with the record result of 11.9 %, they did disproportionally well among this group, while now their vote share among workers is in line with the federal election result:

Who is classed as a ‘worker’?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Who is classed as a ‘worker’?

It's basically to be used synonymous with building laborers, craftsmen and low-income jobs you don't need an apprenticeship for (e.g. road sweeper), who get a wage instead of a salary; i.e. blue-collar workers as opposed to "Angestellte" (white-collar workers).

[Angel of Death]

Is there a map showing the districts where the leading party differs between the two votes?

[palandio]

Who is classed as a ‘worker’?

It's basically to be used synonymous with building laborers, craftsmen and low-income jobs you don't need an apprenticeship for (e.g. road sweeper), who get a wage instead of a salary.

It‘s more or less similar to „blue-collar“ really, including a lot of industrial workers with three-year apprenticeships and often decent wages. The difference between Arbeiter (~blue-collar) and Angestellte (~white-collar) was relevant for social insurance and the calculation of wages (hourly vs. monthly) but laws have changed that and generally there are probably more useful indicators of class today.

[Not Me, Us]

Die Linke's collapse among workers isn't too surprising, at least from a relatively uninformed outside perspective. Blue-collar types have been seduced by right-wing populists all over the world, which is honestly a tragedy. Die Linke needs to carve out a better spot for itself, there's really no reason to vote for it over the Greens or SPD.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Die Linke's collapse among workers isn't too surprising, at least from a relatively uninformed outside perspective. Blue-collar types have been seduced by right-wing populists all over the world, which is honestly a tragedy. Die Linke needs to carve out a better spot for itself, there's really no reason to vote for it over the Greens or SPD.

Interestingly, AfD more or less treaded water with workers in 2021 compared to 2017. The Greens and SPD seemed to have gained about 4% and 5% respectively, while the CDU lost 10%. The FDP seems to have gained about 3%, while Die Linke lost half of their support.

[Epaminondas]

Given the results in Saarland, would it be unreasonable to believe that the SDP would have won a tsunami landslide across the country if the Greens had withdrawn in their favour?

In particular in BW, every single seat would have flipped.
In fact outside of Bavaria I see very constituencies where SDP + Greens < CDU

Not every green would vote for the SDP. Many green voters particulary in Baden-Württemberg
 would be inclined to go back to the CDU if there was no greens.

No need for hypotheticals. How did it work out in Saarland?

[Astatine]

Given the results in Saarland, would it be unreasonable to believe that the SDP would have won a tsunami landslide across the country if the Greens had withdrawn in their favour?

In particular in BW, every single seat would have flipped.
In fact outside of Bavaria I see very constituencies where SDP + Greens < CDU

Not every green would vote for the SDP. Many green voters particulary in Baden-Württemberg
 would be inclined to go back to the CDU if there was no greens.

No need for hypotheticals. How did it work out in Saarland?

In Saarland, CDU got 24.6 %, slightly above the federal result of 24.1 % (102 % of the nationwide performance). On average in 2013 and 2017, the CDU got 93 % of its federal result, so this overperformance might have had to do with the Greens not running. Meanwhile, SPD, Linke and FDP strongly overperformed compared to their national results, SPD and FDP especially compared to how they usually do over here.

I did some analysis on the precinct results of Saarbrücken:



While Die Linke clearly overperformed in precincts where Greens had strong district result, it was more of a wash for the SPD, more so for the CDU. The FDP has a slightly positive correlation. Meanwhile, it's clear that there is no overlap between the AfD and the Greens.

Deriving from this data, I would not say that the main reason for the Social Democrats' overperformance was the Greens not running (although it was a factor probably), but rather the full collapse of Die Linke that got almost 12 % of the vote in 2017 in Saarland. This was overshadowed by a good chunk of Green voters opting for Die Linke instead, mitigating their poor showing.

[President Johnson]

For the record: The incoming SPD faction reelected Rolf Mützenich as caucus leader with 97% of the vote today. Mützenich, who was initially seen as an interim figure when he took the post in 2019, belongs to the party's left wing but is generally considered a pragmatist who's able to work out compromises among members and coalition partners. He certainly earned a lot of trust and goodwill across the various factions within the SPD and is publically respected as a very kind person. Definitely a strong sign, the party is united and ready to take to reigns of government as the senior coalition partner.

Earlier today, more Greens came out in favor of a trafficlight coalition, including Cem Özdemir and especially the Green youth. However, Hamburg Deputy Mayor Katharina Fegebank, who also served as Olaf Scholz' second in command, told her party that Scholz is a very tough negotiator, knowing him from their coalition government in Hamburg.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wouldn't necessarily call it an SPD overperformance in Saarland, so much as the end of a lengthy period of underperforming, dating back to the Lafontaine split.

[parochial boy]

Given the results in Saarland, would it be unreasonable to believe that the SDP would have won a tsunami landslide across the country if the Greens had withdrawn in their favour?

In particular in BW, every single seat would have flipped.
In fact outside of Bavaria I see very constituencies where SDP + Greens < CDU

Not every green would vote for the SDP. Many green voters particulary in Baden-Württemberg
 would be inclined to go back to the CDU if there was no greens.

No need for hypotheticals. How did it work out in Saarland?

In Saarland, CDU got 24.6 %, slightly above the federal result of 24.1 % (102 % of the nationwide performance). On average in 2013 and 2017, the CDU got 93 % of its federal result, so this overperformance might have had to do with the Greens not running. Meanwhile, SPD, Linke and FDP strongly overperformed compared to their usual Saarland results. 

I did some analysis on the precinct results of Saarbrücken:



While Die Linke clearly overperformed in precincts where Greens had strong district result, it was more of a wash for the SPD, more so for the CDU. The FDP has a slightly positive correlation. Meanwhile, it's clear that there is no overlap between the AfD and the SPD.

Deriving from this data, I would not say that the main reason for the Social Democrats' overperformance was the Greens not running (although it was a factor probably), but rather the full collapse of Die Linke that got almost 12 % of the vote in 2017 in Saarland. This was overshadowed by a good chunk of Green voters opting for Die Linke instead, mitigating their poor showing.

What has the Linke vote in Saarland historically looked like? My initial reaction was that the West German Linke electorate tends to live in the same place as the Green electorate in any case, so that same corelation might still have applied even with the Greens standing. But then, given the whole Lafontaine factor and that bit of the Linke's background it's not necessarily so clear that would be the case in Saarland.

Incidentally, have they come out with precinct results for the minor parties yet? die Partei, the Tierschutzpartei, the Pirates and Volt got virtually 6% in Saarland, versus 3% federally - so I can see a big chunk of the Green vote having gone in that direction

[Astatine]

Given the results in Saarland, would it be unreasonable to believe that the SDP would have won a tsunami landslide across the country if the Greens had withdrawn in their favour?

In particular in BW, every single seat would have flipped.
In fact outside of Bavaria I see very constituencies where SDP + Greens < CDU

Not every green would vote for the SDP. Many green voters particulary in Baden-Württemberg
 would be inclined to go back to the CDU if there was no greens.

No need for hypotheticals. How did it work out in Saarland?

In Saarland, CDU got 24.6 %, slightly above the federal result of 24.1 % (102 % of the nationwide performance). On average in 2013 and 2017, the CDU got 93 % of its federal result, so this overperformance might have had to do with the Greens not running. Meanwhile, SPD, Linke and FDP strongly overperformed compared to their usual Saarland results. 

I did some analysis on the precinct results of Saarbrücken:



While Die Linke clearly overperformed in precincts where Greens had strong district result, it was more of a wash for the SPD, more so for the CDU. The FDP has a slightly positive correlation. Meanwhile, it's clear that there is no overlap between the AfD and the SPD.

Deriving from this data, I would not say that the main reason for the Social Democrats' overperformance was the Greens not running (although it was a factor probably), but rather the full collapse of Die Linke that got almost 12 % of the vote in 2017 in Saarland. This was overshadowed by a good chunk of Green voters opting for Die Linke instead, mitigating their poor showing.

What has the Linke vote in Saarland historically looked like? My initial reaction was that the West German Linke electorate tends to live in the same place as the Green electorate in any case, so that same corelation might still have applied even with the Greens standing. But then, given the whole Lafontaine factor and that bit of the Linke's background it's not necessarily so clear that would be the case in Saarland.

Incidentally, have they come out with precinct results for the minor parties yet? die Partei, the Tierschutzpartei, the Pirates and Volt got virtually 6% in Saarland, versus 3% federally - so I can see a big chunk of the Green vote having gone in that direction

In my district, Linke had 23 % or so in 2009, cutting into classical SPD territory. Die Linke's vote share used to correlate with the AfD's (I'll get to analyze the past results within the next days, after an important exam), but the more away we got from the peak of the Lafontaine era, the worse Linke performs. From my gut instict, there might still some ancestral Linke voters left in the classical Lafontaine territory that now votes AfD (high unemployment, high migrant rate, lower formal education). I could see the final plot being parabolic, with Linke performing weak in the typical suburban areas while stronger in its ancient territory and in alternative quarters, although this analysis might be skewed due to the lack of Green vote. Maybe the district vote might give a more appropriate result - Expect it within the next days!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They used to be particularly strong in Völklingen and similar places, but are only about state average or so there now.