🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Antonio the Sixth]

BBC: German election: Seven things we learned

The 8th point was in fact relevant for the election.
Because some polling station ran out of ballots, additional ballots had to be delivered subsequently, which however was fraught with difficulties, as the streets were congested owing to the Berlin Marathon.

Hahahahaha wow

This is NYCBOE-level incompetence. Playing against the German stereotype here.

[KaiserDave]

In case of traffic light, SPD and Greens would of course need to make a lot of concessions to the FDP despite the fact (or shall we rather say "because") that the Lindner party is the weakest one in such a government... kind of a reverse of the 2017 Jamaica negotiations where the CDU was willing to make A LOT of concessions to Greens which in turn led to the FDP blowing up the talks. This essentially means no new taxes/social welfare and Lindner is the new finance minister.

So yep, Traffic Light is going to be a f**king disaster and an utter waste of political capital for SPD and the Greens. Wonderful.

I will now accept my accolades:

What even is the point of the SPD anymore?

They did well....

This is a disaster for the Union...

Yeah, but the coalition options kinda suck for the SPD: assuming no Jamaica, either they continue the grand coalition with themselves as its leaders this time & thus further enable the erasure of their inherent political identity or they try to form a traffic-light coalition without R2G as negotiating leverage. Neither seems all that likely to lead to future successes for them.

Speculation, speculation.
This is dooming without reason. There is no reason to believe the FDP will be able to dictate the terms of coalition.

[Alcibiades]

BBC: German election: Seven things we learned

The 8th point was in fact relevant for the election.
Because some polling station ran out of ballots, additional ballots had to be delivered subsequently, which however was fraught with difficulties, as the streets were congested owing to the Berlin Marathon.

Hahahahaha wow

This is NYCBOE-level incompetence. Playing against the German stereotype here.

Although this very much fits with Berlin’s reputation within Germany.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

BBC: German election: Seven things we learned

The 8th point was in fact relevant for the election.
Because some polling station ran out of ballots, additional ballots had to be delivered subsequently, which however was fraught with difficulties, as the streets were congested owing to the Berlin Marathon.

Hahahahaha wow

This is NYCBOE-level incompetence. Playing against the German stereotype here.

Berlin is not Germany. Berlin is an utterly failed city that has been experiencing serious problems in fulfilling its administrative duties for decades. If you want to apply for a new ID card, you need to wait up to twelve months. That's why you were allowed to produce an invalid ID card at the polling station yesterday. Only in Berlin, of course.
Ever since the BER Airport disaster Berlin has utterly lost its reputation as an organizer city.
Elon Musk already regrets having his Tesla Gigafactory built in the suburbs of Berlin.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Seems notable that the Union map is now essentially the same as a Zentrum map from the inter war years. Or a map of Catholicism.

[KaiserDave]

Seems notable that the Union map is now essentially the same as a Zentrum map from the inter war years. Or a map of Catholicism.

Ah, things as they should be. Next we need Die Linke to come back in Kreuzberg.

[Astatine]

An overview of some incumbent MPs who will not be part of the next Bundestag:

CDU:
Nadine Schön, deputy leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group and CDU expert on digital affairs, has lost her district in St. Wendel after having won her seat for three consecutive terms. Her advantage: If outgoing Economy Minister Peter Altmaier resigns within his term, she's placed next on the list to succeed him. Markus Uhl, MP for Homburg, got swept away by the SPD's Saarland surge, leaving him without a seat after one term. Stefan Kaufmann, who had represented Stuttgart, was defeated by former Green leader Cem Özdemir. He was the first CDU MP to come out as gay. Saskia Ludwig, who had lost in 2017 but got a seat as list successor, did get humiliated in her Potsdam district where she ran against Scholz and Baerbock. Rüdiger Kruse and Marcus Weinberg lost their seats in Hamburg.

SPD:
Florian Post represented Munich, but he was quite controversial and didn't get placed on the list, so he had hoped to win his district directly. He failed narrowly and will not be part of the next Bundestag.

Linke:
Norbert Müller from Potsdam did not get a list spot and his hopeless direct candidacy in Potsdam failed miserably, ending up even behind Linda Teuteberg (FDP). Matthias Höhn, former Linke General Secretary, did not manage to get elected either in Saxony-Anhalt.

[parochial boy]

Snip

I’ll make this a short last one to avoid derailing further (sorry all) but you have failed to engage with my point about deficit spending enough to make it clear you kind of have to accept it.

The precise point is that no, climate change and housing are not simple issues. Because societies, economies and markets are all very complicated and intricate systems. So the FDP offer of a simple solution of the market, at best insufficient at worst downright harmful, is exactly the same as the populism you are decrying. Worse in a way, as it knows full well that it is catering for an electorate that will never have to pay the price of it’s failures.

[brucejoel99]

In case of traffic light, SPD and Greens would of course need to make a lot of concessions to the FDP despite the fact (or shall we rather say "because") that the Lindner party is the weakest one in such a government... kind of a reverse of the 2017 Jamaica negotiations where the CDU was willing to make A LOT of concessions to Greens which in turn led to the FDP blowing up the talks. This essentially means no new taxes/social welfare and Lindner is the new finance minister.

So yep, Traffic Light is going to be a f**king disaster and an utter waste of political capital for SPD and the Greens. Wonderful.

I will now accept my accolades:

What even is the point of the SPD anymore?

They did well....

This is a disaster for the Union...

Yeah, but the coalition options kinda suck for the SPD: assuming no Jamaica, either they continue the grand coalition with themselves as its leaders this time & thus further enable the erasure of their inherent political identity or they try to form a traffic-light coalition without R2G as negotiating leverage. Neither seems all that likely to lead to future successes for them.

Speculation, speculation.
This is dooming without reason. There is no reason to believe the FDP will be able to dictate the terms of coalition.

Since when is it speculation to presume that a party that's necessary for the formation of a coalition will wanna dictate the terms that are necessary for them to join said coalition? That seems like basic parliamentary politics 101.

[Former President tack50]

(ask any Londoner).

You mean the London that's encircled by an impenetrable Green Belt?

That's hardly a good example of libertarian politics lol

I don't think there's a single example of sufficient housing regulation and bureaucracy cutting in the EU.

We have come to live with the expectation that planning and getting a building approved takes as long or longer than actually building it. Sprinkle in some ridiculous "green" standards into the mix, and you have beautiful, expensive, turtle speed construction.

Is there really any developed country that doesn't have problems with housing affordability in its major and most desirable cities?

[KaiserDave]

In case of traffic light, SPD and Greens would of course need to make a lot of concessions to the FDP despite the fact (or shall we rather say "because") that the Lindner party is the weakest one in such a government... kind of a reverse of the 2017 Jamaica negotiations where the CDU was willing to make A LOT of concessions to Greens which in turn led to the FDP blowing up the talks. This essentially means no new taxes/social welfare and Lindner is the new finance minister.

So yep, Traffic Light is going to be a f**king disaster and an utter waste of political capital for SPD and the Greens. Wonderful.

I will now accept my accolades:

What even is the point of the SPD anymore?

They did well....

This is a disaster for the Union...

Yeah, but the coalition options kinda suck for the SPD: assuming no Jamaica, either they continue the grand coalition with themselves as its leaders this time & thus further enable the erasure of their inherent political identity or they try to form a traffic-light coalition without R2G as negotiating leverage. Neither seems all that likely to lead to future successes for them.

Speculation, speculation.
This is dooming without reason. There is no reason to believe the FDP will be able to dictate the terms of coalition.

Since when is it speculation to presume that a party that's necessary for the formation of a coalition will wanna dictate the terms that are necessary for them to join said coalition? That seems like basic parliamentary politics 101.

They can dictate some terms, but the idea that they would be in the drivers seat or have very substantial power to block the entire SPD economic agenda is fanciful. And the idea that neither of these options could lead to further success is speculation, speculation.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

(ask any Londoner).

You mean the London that's encircled by an impenetrable Green Belt?

That's hardly a good example of libertarian politics lol

I don't think there's a single example of sufficient housing regulation and bureaucracy cutting in the EU.

We have come to live with the expectation that planning and getting a building approved takes as long or longer than actually building it. Sprinkle in some ridiculous "green" standards into the mix, and you have beautiful, expensive, turtle speed construction.

Is there really any developed country that doesn't have problems with housing affordability in its major and most desirable cities?

Does Texas count? (Other Sunbelt states with lax regulations too).

[Oryxslayer]

(ask any Londoner).

You mean the London that's encircled by an impenetrable Green Belt?

That's hardly a good example of libertarian politics lol

I don't think there's a single example of sufficient housing regulation and bureaucracy cutting in the EU.

We have come to live with the expectation that planning and getting a building approved takes as long or longer than actually building it. Sprinkle in some ridiculous "green" standards into the mix, and you have beautiful, expensive, turtle speed construction.

Is there really any developed country that doesn't have problems with housing affordability in its major and most desirable cities?

Does Texas count? (Other Sunbelt states with lax regulations too).

Yeah the US is actually comparatively good on this front because our dominant construction paradigm is continuous sprawl and most desirable cities can still keep going outwards. It's just that the most most desirable cities like NY, Seattle, LA and the Bay Area are hemmed in by geography and must now build up, something contrary to our cultural expectations and limited by laws out west. So those places become super unaffordable.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to  a new post-election poll, 62% want Scholz as Chancellor and 16% want Laschet. Which means at least a third of the CDU's own voters don't support a Laschet Chancellorship at this point.

This either puts pressure on the FDP to join a trafficlight coalition or on Laschet to resign.

[Sven der Igel]

The share of women in the new Bundestag will increase, but will remain the lowest in the D-A-CH region.

34.7% of the 735 new (old) representatives will be women, up from 31%.

In Austria, it’s 40.4% of 183 representatives.

In Switzerland, it’s 42.0% of 200 representatives and therefore the highest.

[Astatine]

According to  a new post-election poll, 62% want Scholz as Chancellor and 16% want Laschet. Which means at least a third of the CDU's own voters don't support a Laschet Chancellorship at this point.

This either puts pressure on the FDP to join a trafficlight coalition or on Laschet to resign.

According to Infratest dimap, FDP supporters prefer Jamaica over traffic light by a 51:41 margin, while Green supporters prefer traffic light by a giant margin (81:16). We'll see if those numbers change during the negotiations.

[Lechasseur]

Did Laschet get elected to the Bundestag at the end?

[😥]

Did Laschet get elected to the Bundestag at the end?

Yes

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to  a new post-election poll, 62% want Scholz as Chancellor and 16% want Laschet. Which means at least a third of the CDU's own voters don't support a Laschet Chancellorship at this point.

This either puts pressure on the FDP to join a trafficlight coalition or on Laschet to resign.

According to Infratest dimap, FDP supporters prefer Jamaica over traffic light by a 51:41 margin, while Green supporters prefer traffic light by a giant margin (81:16). We'll see if those numbers change during the negotiations.

These numbers of course do not only reflect ideological preferences but also who people believe has the legitimacy and a mandate to govern. Neither Green nor FDP voters would overwhelmingly support Jamaica as long as they are under the impression that Laschet is the CDU's equivalent to Andrea Ypsilanti or Heide Simonis in 2005.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_Ypsilanti
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Schleswig-Holstein_state_election)

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Not sure if mentioned yet, but two transgender politicians were elected to the Bundestag for the first time ever: Nyke Slawik from NRW and Tessa Ganserer from Bavaria, both are members of the Greens.

[President Johnson]

Joe Biden on the SPD: "I’ll be darned... they’re solid!" That's really cute, Uncle Joe would certainly have voted for my party here.

Now, on a more serious note, criticism on Laschet continues to increase from within his party. A number of backbenchers and state legislators already demanded his resignation. I think the pressure continues to mount unless he's quickly able to negotiate terms about Jamaica coalition.

A quick survey conducted today found that only 16% of Germans think he should be chancellor, 62% say Olaf Scholz should become chief executive. A majority also wants the SPD to lead the government. Only FDP voters slightly prefer Jamaica over trafficlight, while more than eight of ten Green voters want a trafficlight coalition.

[buritobr]

After I read some replies in this thread, it is important to become clear:

Die Linke IS NOT the former communists of the DDR. Die Linke was born as a merge of the PDS, which was the sucessor of the SED, and the WASG, a left-wing group that was a split of the SPD. The PDS itself was not like the SED. A minority in the PDS considered that the DDR was a very nice country.
Many Linke leaders weren't adults when the wall came down in 1989.
The SED was in the "authoritarian left" square of the political compass. Die Linke is in the "libertarian left" square. This party supported the legalization of the cannabis before all the SPD did it. Die Linke tries to be greener than the Greens, while the DDR didn't have a very good record in environment protection.
The 2021 polls showed that die Linke had 8% of the <24 vote and 4% of the >60 vote. It looks like that the old eastern Linke voters became very rare now.

Die Linke did very well in 2009, when few people had heard about Bernie Sanders, Jeremy Corbyn, Melechon, Pablo Iglesias and Alexis Tsipras. Germany was ahead of other high income countries in options on the left of the mainstream center-left. In the end of the 2010s, die Linke declined.

[Astatine]

The SED was in the "authoritarian left" square of the political compass. Die Linke is in the "libertarian left" square.

Any analysis including the political compass discredits itself.

[Sozialliberal]

Overall, I'm very happy about the election result. I think Lindner's plan is to persuade Baerbock to enter government with his buddy Laschet, but if she's smart, she won't give in to that. In my opinion, it's now Scholz's turn to try and form a government.

If it's so easy for SSW to get that one seat, why did they not run in federal elections for several decades, until now?

The SSW is a regional party in Schleswig-Holstein that represents two ethnic minorities that are recognized by the German state: The Danish minority and the Frisian minority. There are two groups within the party: The first group believes the SSW should lobby for the rights of the Danish/Frisian minority (school lessons in Danish/Frisian etc.) and the economic and cultural interests of Southern Schleswig (the region where Danes/Frisians live), but otherwise remain politically neutral ("neither supporting nor overturning a government"). The second group thinks the SSW should have a broad platform that includes non-ethnic issues as well and have the option of joining governments. Before 2021, the last time the SSW participated in a Bundestag election was in 1961. In the following decades, there were discussions about running for Bundestag again, but the majority of the party was always against it. Since the 1960s the influence of the second group has been growing steadily. In 2012, the SSW joined an SPD/Greens state government in Schleswig-Holstein. This year, the party has run for Bundestag and won a seat. I don't think they would have won that seat if they had campaigned only on Danish/Frisian issues. They had a fairly populist campaign about Schleswig-Holstein (the entire state, not just the area where most Danes/Frisians live) not being treated fairly by the rest of Germany (lowest wages in the west, highest electricity prices while producing the highest share of renewable energy, and so on).

[parochial boy]

The Tierschutzpartei got over 2% in Berlin (with its strongest results in East Berlin), Saarland (no Greens), Brandenburg and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. It got 1,9% in Saxony and together with the Tierschutzallianz 2,3% in Saxony-Anhalt. In the old Länder it was consistently stuck around 1-1,5%.

Seems a trivial point - but - I've noticed in the past that the French Parti Animaliste gets its best scores in the north and east of the country where RN is also as it's strongest. and I'm pretty sure the same pattern applies with the PvdD in Holland.

In which case it seems actually worth remarking on the way this phenomena keeps on popping up - has anyone actually ever looked into it in detail?